Long-time readers of mine here at Razzball may remember this figure from way back in February when I did an article connecting baseball analytics to Russell Wilson’s wife. If you didn’t read that one, or better yet, want a visual refresher on Russell Wilson’s greatest accomplishment, you can do so HERE.
In that article, I built on an existing article done here at Razzball by EWB that provided “a critique of ADP, the aggregate ranking systems that replicate and reinforce ADP, and the industry that has developed around the commodification of rankings.” Blair said, “ADP should be a guide only for when you can draft a player, not how valuable that player is.” Blair did a ton of research going back to 2004 and found that it’s extremely rare for a consensus SP1 to be drafted in the first round and return first round value.
He also found that “The top fantasy pitchers almost always have top 10 finishes in IP, K-BB% and SIERA rates.” By combining this information with incoming news about player injuries, he concluded our rates of success on pitchers jumps dramatically. I won’t belabor the point here but I do highly recommend you reading Blair’s article (HERE).
That was the jumping off point for my article. I looked at pre-season projections, ranking the fantasy pitchers in those 3 categories and compared their ranks to their respective ADPs. Again, you can read my piece HERE.
Since we’re at the “mid-point” of the season and getting ready to fire up the 2nd half later today, I felt it was a good time to see how the projections are turning out.
IP Data
Just like in my original article, I start by looking at IP data. Below is a table of the top 10 (with ties) projected inning eaters.
With only a few exceptions, most of the SPs projected to log the highest number of innings are doing just that. Honestly, I am a little surprised only two SPs fail to rank here, especially after what seems like a turbulent last couple months for pitchers.
This takes care of the “quantity” part of the analysis but “quality” is a different animal (I’m talking to you Alek Manoah) and we’ll get to that right now.
SIERA
Next is SIERA. Like the FIP (Field Independent Pitching) and xFIP, SIERA attempts to determine the underlying skill level of the pitcher. Unlike the FIP, SIERA attempts to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. As FanGraphs puts it, “SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.” Here’s how pitchers have been rated in this category:
Here are the projected SP leaders in SIERA before the season and their current rank now:
This paints a much different picture than before. It’s no surprise to see Jacob deGrom hitting his target here but of course, he’s not throwing darts anymore this season. For SPs in the top 20 pre-season, only Spencer Strider is besting predictions, with Tyler Glasnow hitting his mark on the nose.
One item of note – this list is truncated because SIERA rankings tend to be dominated by RPs. Since we’re only discussing SPs in this article, I removed RPs to avoid confusion.
K-BB%
And for our final piece of the puzzle, here are the K-BB% numbers, pre- and mid-season:
Much like the SIERA data, the K-BB% data is Jacob deGrom, Spencer Strider, Tyler Glasnow, then everyone else. Again, K-BB% tends to be dominated by RPs and because of that, this table really shows the tremendous dropoff for many of those expected to dominate this category. Perhaps some astute fantasy owners are loading up their pitching staffs with relievers to dominate (or correct) the ratios.
So, now that we’ve looked at each category individually, we need to add ‘em up and see who our “top” fantasy SPs are so far – besides Spencer Strider, of course!
IP – SIERA – K-BB%
And finally, we are now able to develop a table that sums the rankings of each variable for SPs with 10 or more starts.
Here’s how the sum rankings work. From the previous tables, note Spencer Strider’s rankings were 13 (SIERA) and 3 (K-BB%), plus 26 in IP (didn’t make that list). That equals a total of 42, and the honor of the lowest cumulative ranking for our 3 variables.
NOTE: Although he was included in the tables for the two previous categories, Tyler Glasnow has only made 8 starts so far and therefore does not qualify for this ranking.
I’ve also included the NFBC ADPs from the same timeframe as my previous article, just as a reminder of where these SPs were being drafted all those months ago. If we only had a crystal ball back then, right?
Another note on Strider, you see that he was being drafted in NFBC leagues in the 3rd round, or put another way, the 6th SP off the board. It appears Blair’s research is once again validated. It is extremely rare for a consensus SP1 to be drafted in the first round and return first round value.
We’re not drafting anymore but there’s still time to procure the services of these SPs. The MLB trade deadline is not the only one approaching. Fantasy league deadlines are also right around the corner. Find value where it’s available in your leagues and strengthen your team for the championship run. I’ll be rooting for you!
Once again, thanks for traveling with me on this ride through the wonderful world of baseball analytics. As I always say, keep sifting through the number. That’s where you find the gems!
Follow me on Twitter: @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends!
