Aaron Judge grew up in San Francisco. He told associates of mine at the Winter Meetings that he can still remember which Walgreen’s he was in when he witnessed his first shoplifting. He wistfully remembered, “I was by the breath mints, and this man carried out six boxes of Wheat Thins.” Fond memories for Judge that are going to hard to replicate when he signs a 1-year deal with the Giants in ten years. As we all assumed, Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees through his age-39 season. Luckily, Razzball has a time machine at its disposal, and I went forward nine years to take a quick pic of Aaron Judge when he’s in that final year. Here it is:
So, Aaron Judge on the Yankees is more of the same. *claps hands, all done* No? Okay. Not sure how many people heard this, but it was reported the other day that MLB used three different baseballs last year. One of those balls was more batter-friendly. It was found only at the All-Star Game, Home Run Derby, postseason and Yankees games. This sounds like a joke, but the jokes ended with the guy walking out with Wheat Thins. I’m being serious now. Yo, jai alai called, it wants its “this sport is a joke” moniker back. MLB embraces gambling and institutes cheating by way of different balls. It truly is incredible.
Last year, Aaron Judge went 62/16/.311, guys and five girl readers, and that is the best line of all-time. 40/40 is nice; 50/10 is butter; 60/5 is nomnomnom, get in my belly; 62/12? I mean, c’mon. Seriously, c’mon. C’mon, c’mon! C’mon, c’mon, c’mon! It’s ludicrous. It’s mind boggling. Thesaurus, give me another synonym! It’s BREATHTAKING!!! He always had power — he’s a freakin’ giant, of course he has power! — but he’s never hit .300 or stole more than six bags in a season before. Also, being a certified giant (and not a Giant, as was rumored), he’s prone to injuries. That year of 62/12 wasn’t just a career year, it was the career year of career years. How’sever, if he goes 40/10/.280, it’s still very doable and a great. For 2023, I’ll give Aaron Judge projections of 109/41/102/.283/10 in 548 ABs. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2023 fantasy baseball:
Mitch Haniger – Signed with the Giants. When Haniger was signing with the Giants, he was told they were pursuing two outfielders: Him and Judge. Now, he’s going to bat between J.D. Davis and Wilmer Flores, i.e., the Ghosts of Mets Past. Too bad Mets can’t get the Giants to take McCann. “Hey, that’s where’s where my balls were.” That’s Haniger referring to McCann. So, Haniger is a 10-homer, 25-homer or 40-homer guy, depending on which Haniger shows up. The safe bet is staying close to the median. For 2023, I’ll give Haniger projections of 61/23/72/.241/1 in 482 ABs.
Kenley Jansen – Signed with the Red Sox. Finally, a guy to setup Ryan Brasier! With Jansen in Boston, the contract stipulates that he now be referred by a new name. So, Kenmore Jansen will be the closer for five of six months in Boston, being absent his usual one month each year for health reasons. For 2023, I’ll give Kenley Jansen projections of 4-1/3.40/1.10/83, 39 saves in 61 IP.
Masataka Yoshida – Signed with the Red Sox. The 29-year-old lefty outfielder has played since 2016 in Japan. His career stats: 135 homers, 21 steals, .326/.419/.538 in 3251 plate appearances. His high in Japan for any season is 29 homers, 8 steals and .351. Last year: 21/4/.335. Whatevs, he’s gonna hit .350 in Fenway just doinking the monster all day. His main attraction is his bat-to-ball skills, as he only struck out 41 times last year in 508 plate appearances. To do a quick, half-assed comp, think Bogaerts last year: 15/6/.307. Might be more like Starling Marte with next to no speed, so that’s 17/3/.290. Worth a fantasy number three outfielder pick, but it would be shocking to see a guy who hit 21 homers last year in Japan come here and hit 30+. He should slot in behind Verdugo at the top of the order, but I’ve been saying for years Verdugo should be at the top of the order, and Cora keeps batting Enrique there, so who knows. For 2023, I’ll give Masataka Yoshida projections of 81/16/66/.284/4 in 547 ABs.
Xander Bogaerts – Signed with the Padres. This is related, but a side bar that made me absolutely howl. I looked at the Padres’ depth chart after Bogaerts signed, and there was David Dahl at DH. Oh my. Guess you can’t spell Dahl without DH, but you also can’t spell it without HA! So, the Red Sox wanted nothing to do with Bogaerts, apparently, because they have. Dot dot dot. Christian Arroyo? Hope the Red Sox plan on signing Dansby or Correa. Bogaerts landing in San Diego is a pretty good indicator that Tatis is going to be playing outfield when he returns. Or I guess Kim gets railroaded, like in one of Eminem’s songs. Bogaerts’s K-rate and walk rate have been pretty consistent, even as his batted ball profile has declined. He’s slowly turning into Yelich with so many ground balls. His Hard Contact% also has become flaccid. Steamer projections have him down for 19/6/.271 in 149 games, and that might actually be optimistic with his power. He could bounce back, but I don’t think I’m going to be there if it happens with his current ADP. For 2023, I’ll give Xander Bogaerts projections of 87/17/82/.292/7 in 549 ABs.
Taijuan Walker – Signed with the Phillies. Can’t believe the powers that be are insisting I call him The Republic of China Walker. I’d remove this tin-foil hat, but then they’d read my thoughts. So, Taijuan lost a strikeout on his K/9 last year, and had his best ERA in a few (ignoring 2020 season). His xFIP was even near his career best (3.89), and his career ERA is 3.89, so call him a 3.89 ERA pitcher and be done with it, but he’s super home run prone and going from Metco to Philly is worrisome. Love that he’s a safe bet for 160 IP, and his walk rate was better. How’sever, losing strikeouts and needing the ball to stay in the park for success doesn’t sound like a good combo for Philly. For 2023, I’ll give Taijuan Walker projections of 11-9/3.98/1.18/141 in 163 IP.
Jose Quintana – Signed with the Mets. Steve Cohen got all his money wrapped up in formaldehyde sharks or what? Mets gonna get to the postseason and be like: Geez, wonder why our 67-year-old pitchers are tired. Quintana is likely a better real-life pitcher than a fantasy one, even though he has a better career ERA than Taijuan (3.75 to 3.89), and seemed to be reborn last year as a Pirate/Card. Or was he?! Damn, Mr. Reversal Question, freaking me out. His xFIP looked pretty similar last year as to his 4+ ERA years on the Cubs. Seems to be an okay late flyer that is wildly *shrugs*. For 2023, I’ll give Jose Quintana projections of 10-8/3.86/1.29/142 in 171 IP.
Willson Contreras – Signed with the Cards. “They’re big shoes to fill, but I’ve toiled in Yadier’s shadow for six years. It’s time–God damn it, what is Ken Rosenthal reporting?” That was Andrew Knizner. All of those late-night seshs with Yadi and Knizner watching Beaches for nothing. Between sobs, Knizner said, “But I’ve been Barbara Hershey for so long! You can’t sign Contreras!” Historically, Wrigley is better than Busch, but last year it didn’t play that way, and Willson had one of his best years (22/4/.243). He might not have the upside of a Realmuto or Sal P., but he’s about as locked into solid production as you’re gonna find at catcher. Would I draft him? Nope, he goes before I draft catchers, but he’s fine. For 2023, I’ll give Willson Contreras projections of 74/23/68/.247/5 in 422 ABs.
Nomar Mazara – Signed with the Orioles. Nomar Mazara’s career is like the other famous baseball Nomar, if he was never good and we’re only remembering the post-injury, post-Mia years.
Jace Peterson – Signed with the A’s. Financial terms were not known yet, but I have to imagine it included at least one 20% off Bed, Bath and Beyond coupon. Maybe he gave them a discount if they agreed to refer to themselves as the Oakland J-A’s. So, Peterson is the type of guy that the J-A’s will give the worst 500+ ABs you’ve ever seen. Hopefully not, but, then again, what else do they have? For 2023, I’ll give Jace Peterson 51/11/54/.228/14 in 429 ABs.
Aledmys Diaz – Signed with the A’s. Sorry, can’t call you the J-A’s anymore. They’re now the Dee-A’s. Maybe they can just alternate between J-A’s and Dee-A’s. Aledmys is a poor man’s Yuli Gurriel. Call him Lourdes. Ooh, low blow — that’s what she said never! For 2023, Aledmys Diaz projections of 57/14/63/.248/2 in 486 ABs.
Joe Jimenez – Acquired by the Braves. Atlanta has been pretty quiet in the offseason, because they have everyone on their team locked up for 14 years. For 2023, will give Joe Jimenez projections of 5-2/3.21/1.11/78, 3 saves in 61 IP.
Josh Bell – Signed with the Guardians. Solid landing spot with Cleveland, the home of the Rock ‘n Roll Hall of Fame. They’ll appreciate him since you can’t have Rock ‘n Roll without more Bell. Cue The Reaper! Don’t fear it, at least. Progressive won’t help Bell, but nowhere was going to with his Launch Angle. Surprising too, because if you’ve ever seen him, he seems to have a pretty upper-cutty swing, but it beats everything into the ground. His career 31.2% FB rate is so blech, and his Hard Contact is almost as bad. It’s a solid landing spot though, because Cleveland doesn’t buy high-priced free agents, so they’re playing him 162 games, if he’s healthy, and in the middle of the lineup. Blue Oyster Cult’s new single about using the Bell, (Don’t Fear) Counting Stats. For 2023, I’ll give Josh Bell projections of 71/19/83/.261 in 563 ABs.
Andrew Heaney – Signed with the Rangers. Rangers are putting together the ultimate crazy ex-girlfriend pitching staff. Won’t be around for long, but it’s going to wreck havoc while it’s there. “Damn, she fine with that 13 K/9…” Looking out the window, “…and now she’s keying my car.” Also, much like a crazy ex, Heaney’s numbers last year are the type that make projections systems trip over their own d**k. They see Heaney and they’re like, “He wasn’t top three in the Cy race? Well, he will be!” Seriously, his projections look better than Alek Manoah. Ya know, an actual ace. Heaney has a career 4.56 ERA, and only one year with more than 130 IP thrown. If you believe the Dodgers fixed him and don’t just cheat to make their terrible pitchers great, then Heaney could be worth a flyer. Will give him the projections of 8-5/3.88/1.26/144 in 124 IP.
Cody Bellinger – Signed with the Cubs.
“I’m signing with the Cubs? Like little bears?” pic.twitter.com/4DzNtAEZPb
— Razzball (@Razzball) December 6, 2022
Cody Bellinger is a big fan of picnics, so this is truly going to be a struggle for him. “Hey, are you my new teammate?” Cody Bellinger standing in the cereal aisle talking to a box of Teddy Grahams. “What position do you play?” Cody talking to a squeeze bottle of honey. Any hoo! As discussed in another blurb, Wrigley didn’t play as offensive as it usually is, but that feels like a small sample size thing. Wind will definitely be blowing out this year, because of Bellinger’s swings and misses. Got heeeeeeeem! Bellinger has a lot more issues than just whether or not the wind is blowing out. He turned a forearm bash, celebrating a home run, into a career-ruiner. There’s the glimmer that he can get it all back, but a change of scenario doesn’t make it so. Dodger Stadium is a great home run park; it just stopped being for Bellinger. For 2023, I’ll give Cody Bellinger projections of 66/21/73/.228/15 in 481 ABs.
Jameson Taillon – Signed with the Cubs. Have a theory on the Cubs’ offseason moves. If they do nothing, the fans will lose their collective shizz. So, the Cubs put together a non-competitive team, but sign a few randoms to make it seem like they’re trying. “Yeah, we lost Willson Contreras, but check out Jameson Taillon! He’s fun, right? Who’s he throwing to? Uh…Cody Bellinger during pregame warm-ups!” Taillon strikes out no one, is home run prone and I wouldn’t go near him in Wrigley. For 2023, I’ll give Jameson Taillon projections of 8-11/4.17/1.16/155 in 181 IP.
Vince Velasquez – Signed with the Pirates. VV might be the only W the Pirates get this year in free agency, and it’s still really just two V’s.
Just a quick correction on your take that Taijuan Walker is ‘super HR prone’, he cut his HR from 26 to 15 in a nearly identical number of innings as his split became his out pitch and batters were making almost no hard contact against it and driving into the ground at a near negative launch angle. He has evolved and sacrificed some K’s for outs. I don’t think Philly will be as negative for him as you might.
Maybe you’re right but I’m worried; Philly is a lot tougher park
Your Cody Bellinger projections feel generous. Maybe I’m just a hater. You’re usually a lot better at projections than me, so I’ll shut up about it.
Anyway, I noticed you didn’t give anyone in these projections your infamous “with a chance for more” seal of approval. I know you do that for sleepers and prospects, but does that mean these guys don’t have a chance for more?
Ha, they have a chance for more, but usually save that for my sleepers
Haha, I was pretty sure that was your modus operandi but I wanted to poke around and see. What I really like is when you actually state “with a chance for less” or “with a chance for a lot less” LOL.
By the way, you can never use “modus operandi” in a story now or I’ll know where you got it from.
Yeah, Cody is likely a chance for way less, tbh
Now we’re on the same page!!!
What is going on with the sudden spending spree in baseball???
Atlanta did a great job getting their players to sign those deals, but now they may want to invest in grief counseling. Watching Nimmo get that contract has to make Acuna second guess his life decisions.
It’s a players’ market!
KWAN!
And then Giancarlo after him like you guys are out to pour salt in my wounds
You had your chance ha. Bard? Pfffft.
I know, stupid closers
One quick one- for 2023 only in 5×5 $260 Roto who would you keep between $45 Ramirez and $9 Adames.
Happy holidays
Jose Ramirez — you too!
A.J. Preller: “Welcome to San Diego, Xander!”
Xander Bogaerts: “Thanks! Hey, why does every dollar bill you give me have “Juan Soto extension” written on it with a sharpie?”
HAHA
We printed extra
Yeah, as a Cubs fan I have to deal with losing one of our best hitters to the stinkin’ Cardinals, adding Taillon which I’m ok with, but when I look at Bellinger’s numbers over the last two seasons I just want to puke. Surely the Cubs will add another bat, right? What are we down to in the SS sweepstakes, Dansby Swanson? I’d take him at SS so Nico can move to 2B and Madrigal can stay on the bench where he belongs.
Also and last – Preller signing Xander lends credence to the idea that he also offered Judge the 10 yr/$400 million contract. Monopoly money in San Diego!
Sadly, I don’t think the Cubs are serious about getting better yet…I’d be shocked if they went after Dansby…He feels destined for Red Sox or Dodgers — total monopoly in San Diego, you might be right
Jason Heyward just signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers. He might put up better MLB numbers this year than Bellinger.
Ha, sad
What are your thoughts on Tatis’ numbers coming back from shoulder surgery? It seems to take a couple years for players to fully regain form.
Think he’s young enough with enough time away to recoup his strength that he should be fine
$280 Million for Bogaerts is crazy. Guy hasn’t topped 23 Home Runs going inot his age 30 season is crazy.
Agree. Most of those owners couldn’t win a fantasy auction league.
Yeah, it’s a players’ market…then again, it ain’t my money
Crazy monopoly money, huh? Pujols contracts to everyone!!! Maybe this is the way for other owners to show Arte, as he rides off into the sunset, their respects: “See, Arte, we value name brand talents over actual results too. Who cares where we finish? We’ve got STARS!!!!”
BTW, I fully expected you to snake Severino from me but you swayed to Holmes. Seems risky, but if he really is CL then the saves will pile up quickly.
I love Severino this year, figured I had another round on him
Hahahaha, hilarious…the terrible Pujols contract nod to Arte!
Almost you pick again! I feel kinda crappy picking Bednar there but the last two years in DC I had pretty good teams screwed over by not having SVs. I might be overcompensating now but the rest of the closer board looks super sketchy now. No way I trust Soto this year. Too many other turnstiles. Looks like a roller coaster ride getting bullpen help later. More teams like TB. I won’t touch that bullpen
Yeah, that’s why I held my nose and took Clay Holmes, bc you just know the Yanks are going to randomly sign Kimbrel and make him their closer for no reason
Holy crap, did I see that right, you took a C in round 9?
Stop the presses!!!
Haha, yeah, in a two catcher league it’s okay…I just held my nose for two picks
Actually, three picks!
Haha, yeah!! I understand why you made those picks though. Bread and butter. Gravy comes later. Hopefully.
Yeah, exactly!
these contracts are getting crazy…..is that right bogarts will be paid over a billion? he has a higher GDP that several 3rd world countries combined. this is not sustainable
not sure i like the phillies walker signing but i guess he is ok as #4
so is that true about the 3 ball types? i was definitely suspicious of judges #s seemed too good to be true and mlb is always looking for a hero so i can see them tea bagging him with goldilock balls. I read they only had a small sample size mlb would not let them look at many balls.
too bad people can’t just let things play out without tampering
The contracts are nuts — Walker seems okay for real baseball bc of IP, but meh kinda in general — it is true, three ball types were used, Yankees games featured lots of the “bouncy” balls…As did commemorative balls…Like Pujols’s balls
good point, thought the same thing about pujol’s power surge…just MLB putting on a show
Yeah, a Harvard educated physicist tested the balls
i just looked at the graph showing how many went to the yankees in aug and september during the HR chase wow.
Yup! It is kinda crazy…Judge still prolly would’ve hit 50-55 HRs, but it prolly added a handful
enough to make a difference to me that number is as tainted as mcguire, sosa and bonds
Yup
Its ok for MLB to rig things, but take a PED, use pine tar, or bet on your own games and you’re banned for life as a player. It seems kinda like a double standard.
Exactly! It’s such BS
exactly and there is now way they did not know what was going on..
they’re the only ones that can change the balls, so outside of dementia or something yep.
11 years and $280M for XB is crazy. He is 30. They also spent big money on martinez and suarez, need another SP and will have to break the bank to lock up Soto.
It’s crazy from a real baseball standpoint…What is he in, say, five years? 12/.270 hitter?
They owe $40+ million for Hosmer’s albatross contract too. I guess it is going to get more expensive to go to Petco.
Ha, yeah, they’re growing dollar trees down there in San Diego
Grey!!!!
Awesome!!!!
a. Great report, thoroughly enjoyed! Belli going to Wrigley, wow! But if his shoulder’s fixed…Lottery ticket at 137 right?
b. George Carlin quote of the day for December 8, 2022
‘Children are not our future, and I can prove it with my usual flawless logic. Children can’t be our future because by the time the future arrives they won’t be children anymore, so blow me. Yes. As you may have noticed, I always like to present a carefully reasoned argument. Raising a child is not difficult. They try to make it into this mysterious, difficult task. Nothing to it. Easiest thing in the world to raise a kid if you follow the steps. First step, you take the kid and you put him out on the street corner, and you leave him there. You come back a week later. If the kid is still there, you’ve got yourself a stupid fucking kid. Then you just proceed from that point.’
IT’S BAD FOR YA (2008)
Cheers,
Ante
A. Yup! B. Haha
Great write up on free agent movement! 13 team 5×5 dynasty Drop Taillon and Tyler Anderson? I don’t trust either one! Wait for the auction to fill their spots?
Thanks! I don’t trust either, uh, either…Wait for auction, maybe…What’s their price?