Fantasy Baseball Advice

Given the plum matchup of the Nationals for his first Sawx start, John Smoltz turned the opportunity into prunes with a 4-run 1st inning. But then he started shaking off the rust and gave up only 1 ER and 3 hits in the next 4 innings. So what can be expect from Ol’ Smoltzy? His move to the AL is a blessing and a curse – a blessing in that many of the hitters haven’t faced him and a curse in that it’s the tougher league. His velocity was good given it was his first start (hitting 93+ MPH on the fastball) and his slider and split-finger had some bite. If he stays healthy, he’s definitely worth rolling the dice on. But you may want to sit him during bad matchups until he has a couple good starts under his belt.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw in fantasy baseball:

Geovany Soto – Was reported that he tested positive for marijuana in the WBC.  Going, Going, Ganja!  To be blunt, Soto had an awful start.  He stunk up the joint.  He left his owners hungry.  Now, he’s smoking like he’s hitting .420.

Russell Martin – If Soto was on pot, what has Russell Martin been on?

Jake Fox – HR yesterday.  Fox is worth owning while DH’ing.  He’s crazy like a fox, which is much better than crazy like a Milton Bradley.

Magglio Ordonez – HR yesterday after he shaved his head.  Hey, it worked for Bruce Willis.

Ted Lilly – 6 IP, 6 ER.  Did show up on the list of pitchers who may be in for a correction.  I think he’ll be okay, but he’s not an under 4 ERA pitcher.  You knew that, I knew that.  Let’s move on, shall we?

Johan Santana – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Take that Rick Peterson!

Matt Kemp – 0-for-6 with 4 Ks as he batted 5th.  C’mon, Torre, bat him ninth!

Casey McGehee – HR yesterday as he bats .389 in the last week.  After the game, Zobrist tossed him his jersey as he cracked open a Coke.

Denard Span – Returned from the Dizzabled List with a 1-for-2 game and 3 runs scored.

Hanley Ramirez – It’s been a tough year for NL East shorstops and Hanley came out of the gates quite slow (9/2/12/3/.289).  After a typical Hanley May (21/6/11/5/.359), the first 20 games in June netted 0 HR and 1 SB (despite hitting for average and RBI).  So what’s he done in the past 4 games…just 3 HR, 13 RBI, and a SB!  Now at .335 and on pace for about 25/25, he’s back to his rightful place as the 2nd best fantasy hitter after Pujols.

Cody Ross - The one where Ross hits his 13th homer.

Wade LeBlanc – 1 1/3 IP, 4 ER.  Seattle crushed Joey.  Bring in Schwimmer!

Wladimir Balentien – Welcome back to, “Who’s your -laddy!”  Vladimir has two homers, but Wladimir hit his third yesterday.  Right now, Wladdy is your -laddy!

Lance Berkman – 2 HRs, 4 RBIs and 1 steal.  With three hits yesterday, he equaled his total for the last week.  Hopefully he has a solid 2nd half.  The numbers say he should.

Derek Lowe – 3 IP, 6 ER.  Sure would’ve been easier to call this one if he was hit hard against the Red Sox last time out.  Since I said two weeks that he hadn’t given up more than 3 runs in over a month, he’s been rocked twice in three starts.  Lesson learned?  Keep big trap shut.

Jimmy Rollins – Benched for two games because of his .218 BABIP.  Funny that the Phillies are saying it’s a mental break when they’re the ones over thinking things.

Antonio Bastardo – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Fitting name.

Johnny Cueto – 6 IP, 5 ER.  I’m so done with NL pitchers in AL parks that I benched Cueto yesterday.  Missed a Win, but avoided a WHIPing.

Alex Rodriguez – After battling “fatigue” early in the week, he rested for two days.  Yesterday, he hit his tenth homer.  Now that’s what I call a power nap!

Jordan Zimmermann – 7 IP, 1 ER.  You deserved this line if you had the cojones to start him against the Sawx.  For those playing at home, and I’m assuming besides our incarcerated readers that’s true of most of you, Zimmermann has 69 Ks and 69 2/3 IP.  Hello, beautiful.

Cliff Lee – 7 IP, 2 ER.  Not my style to point out the positive with Lee, but all his Win Karma from last year as gone out the window somewhere on I-90.

Eric Byrnes – Out for two months with a fractured hand.  The hand must’ve felt guilty for signing those checks the past year and a half.

Mark Reynolds – 2 HRs yesterday.  Get on the donkey, donkey!

Joey Votto - 4-for-5, HR, 2 R. 3 RBI.  Nothing depressing about that line!

A two-week vacation did ol’ Grady’s elbow just dandy.  The inflammation Grady Sizemore has been feeling all year has subsided and there’s no need for now to resort to arthroscopic surgery.  That has to be a relief to fantasy baseballers who drafted G-Sizzle with their 1st pick.  So should there be concern that his elbow troubles will reappear? Um, we’re not experts in this area, but we’re pretty sure elbows inflame for a reason.  Unless the elbow belongs to Albert Pujols, it’s probably a safe bet that Sizemore will eventually get shut down or underperform.  What to do?  Not much you can do, except hope you can at least salvage a pro-rated 20/20 from him (or one of those no HR/surprise SB seasons like D-Wright and BJ Upton).   If you can trade him for 80 cents on the dollar (say, Alexis Rios, Granderson, Holliday, etc.), do it in a heartbeat…..Crazy that the most Grady player on the Indians might be Shin-Soo Choo. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brad Lidge – Threw a bit yesterday and is eyeing June 23rd for his return.  My crystal ball says on June 24th, I’ll be responding to comment #24 with, “Hold Madson for now.”

Johan Santana – Rick Peterson, former Mets pitching coach, said he’s heard rumors that Johan is dealing with pain in his surgically repaired knee.  And Willie Randolph said he heard a Jerry Manuel-induced charley horse is the root of Reyes’s leg problems.

Pablo Sandoval – 2 HRs yesterday, now has 8 on the year and batting .332.  Betcha wish you didn’t give up on him in April.  As I said so many times before, put a catcher in your catcher slot and press mute on your brain.  Yadier had a hot week! No, random italicized voice, stop with the noise.

Prince Fielder – 2-for-3, 6 RBIs as he hit the first grand slam of his career.  Big day for big men yesterday.

Shin-Soo Choo – 2-for-4, 2 steals and a homer.  9 homers and 11 steals on the year.  Get on the Shin-Soo Choo choo train!

Travis Hafner – HR yesterday.  Hey, maybe he got some HGH eyedrops too.

Mark DeRosa – HR yesterday.  Okay, pop quiz, hotshot.  Who has more homers V-Mart or DeRosa?  Hint, V-Mart has 11.

Torii Hunter – Left the game after colliding with the wall.  Last I heard, x-rays were being done.  Be crazy if they found some empty whiskey bottles.

John Lackey – 7 IP, 3 ER, 10 Ks.  He cruised through five and a third like he was a Monte Carlo.  But in the last one and two-thirds, he looked like he was a Yugo.  When Andres Torres, career minor leaguer, took him deep in the 7th, Lackey looked out of gas/exhausted (either work for the similes).

Ervin Santana – Will miss one start with a strained muscle in his forearm.  Good to hear it’s not his elbow.  Bad to hear it’s another part of his arm.

Sean Rodriguez – HR yesterday as he got the start.  Hopefully, Scioscia sits him for the next week, then calls back Kendrick. (It’s reverse psychology, just go with it!)

So how was your weekend?  Mine included news that Jake Peavy could be out for as long as 12 weeks with a tear in his ankle.  Could’ve been worse, he could’ve hurt his ankle kicking me in the groin.  He was fitted for a cast the other day.  I’d like to sign his cast, “But your FIP’s a 3.00!”  Wasn’t it the flu stopping him from pitching last week?  What’s this, the influenzankle?  That’s some Nomar shizz right there.  As of right now, I’ve DL’d Peavy in all leagues where I own him, hoping for news that he’ll only be out the shortest possible time of 4 weeks or I’ll drop him if news comes out that he will miss the rest of the season.  Now begins the part of our program where I jump from matchup to matchup waiting for someone to stick.  Obviously it depends on the league, but, as of right now, I’m giving Dallas Braden a whirly-bird.  Braden gets the Dodgers and Padres this week.  If he’s good and his matchups are decent, I’ll hold him.  If not, I’ll move onto the schmohawk starter behind door number three.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Roy Halladay – His right groin is hurt.  He has two groins?!  The Blue Jays are hoping he can make his next start against the Nats.  I’m sure the Jays are not the only ones holding out hope.

Johan Santana – 3 IP, 9 ER.  Rumors are he prepped for this start with Livan Hernandez.

Mark Teixeira/Alex Rodriguez – Yanks scored 15 runs, these two went for 1-for-8 with one run scored.  Ticker Tease!

Brad Bergesen – Complete game, 2 ER.  Here’s one those guys I wouldn’t try and force onto my team just because Peavy was hurt.  Bergesen is just as likely to give up 5 in four innings next time out.

Derek Lowe – 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Didn’t I just say he was about as reliable as they get?  Lowe obviously let my praise go to his head.  This start was so egregious, I’d think about sitting him next time out.

David Ross – Hit two homers yesterday.  Is it me or does it feel like David Ross has more two homer games than one home run games?

Yunel Escobar – Was pulled from the game after he botched a rundown.  After the game, Bobby Cox said, “Grrr.”

Ty Wigginton – 2 HRs yesterday.  Deep league spoiler alert!  Wigginton gets crazy hot at least once a year.  Maybe this is the start of one of those streaks.  He isn’t guaranteed playing time, so don’t try and jam him into your lineup in 12 team leagues just yet.

J.A. Happ – 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  Told you to loss him after his previous start.

Rocco Baldelli/Nick Green/Josh Beckett – All homered yesterday for the Sawx.  If you picked them in some kind of depraved, baseball home run challenge trifecta, you deserve the loot.

Corey Hart – 2 HRs yesterday.  Now 6 for his last 12 with two homers and one steal.  Helped that this was a day game, but he was still wearing his sunglasses.

Casey McGehee – HR yesterday.  Now 9 for his last 16 and occasionally batting leadoff for the Brewers.  He has no speed, but some light power.  Think 10 homers.

Miguel Olivo – 4 homers in his last 6 games.  He’s a liability on average, but while he’s hot it’s worth taking a flier for some pop.

Coco Crisp – Heads to the DL.  To take his place, the Royals called up Franken Berry.

Kosuke Fukudome – After batting .277 with one homer in May, he’s batting .135 in June with no homers and no steals.  On May 1st, I said to sell him.  Now, I’m saying why are you still holding him?

Jason Hammel – He was a one week flier to fill-in for Peavy last week.  He went 11 1/3 innings with 3 ER.  He gets the Pirates at home and the A’s in Oakland next so I’m going to press my luck.  Though I’m benching him for the Pirates game to avoid the whammy, then will start him against the A’s.

Chad Billingsley – 7 IP, 2 ER and his 9th win.  Oh, and he got stronger as the season went on last year.  Zoinks!

Nelson Cruz – On June 5th, I said, “…he’s just about at .300, that’s when the patented Cruz Stall takes over and he ends up back at .265 by June 20th.”  He’s at .278 and batting .200 in June.  Cust kayin’.

Frank Francisco – To the DL.  Is it me or does it seem like Frank² goes to the 15-day DL every 16th day?  C.J. Wilson will take over closing duties.  Or I should say he’ll continue closer duties.  Francisco is dealing with shoulder tendinitis, which is obviously not a great thing for a closer.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this is an ongoing issue for the rest of the season.  Obviously there’s safer closers out there than C.J. Wilson, but he could rack up some saves for the rest of the season.  SAGNOF!

James Shields – 6 1/3 4 ER.  Should’ve been a gimme today vs. the Nats.  Now sits at a 3.52 ERA on the year, so it’s not like he’s been terrible, but I was expecting more.

Dan Wheeler – Got the vulture Win yesterday, which is nice, but he’s not the guy the Rays are going to for saves.  At this point, I’d hold Howell for saves and no one else.  I’m currently holding Wheeler as an MR, but my leagues are hella deep.  He will be the first one to go if there’s a need to drop someone.

Scott Kazmir – Should be back soon.  If he was dropped by an impatient owner, I’d grab him just in case he gets his shizz together.

Jered Weaver – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks.  The Padres had five hits, surprisingly three by Adrian Gonzalez.  I say surprisingly because why is anyone even pitching to him?  Challenging themselves?

Juan Rivera – Coming off the heels of making Friday’s Buy/Sell, he hit 2 HRs yesterday.  I told you!  Then again, Kendry Morales hit two over the weekend and he was a sell. *sighs*

Sean Rodriguez – Kendrick got sent down and Rodriguez was recalled.  So what does Scioscia do?  He doesn’t start Rodriguez.  Brilliant!  I’d hold Rodriguez for a few more days to a week to see how or if he’s used.  Because if he’s used and starts hitting homers, you’ll want to be the one owning him.

Jose Lopez – With a 4 HR / 12 RBI June, he’s somehow on pace for 24 HR / 102 RBI, albeit with an Ugglay .247 average.

Ian Kinsler/Aaron Hill – Proof that if you’re going to take a 100 AB vacation, you’d best do it right after a hot start.  Last 102 AB for Kinsler:  .176/13/4/13/3.  Last 101 AB for Hill:  .248/6/3/11/0.

Garrett Atkins - Proof that if you’re going to take a 200 AB vacation, you’d best get used to sitting on the bench.  He hit 3 for 4 on Sunday for his ONLY start in the week.  Yikes.

Cliff Lee - A 3 H / 2 BB shutout against the Cards with a no-hitter bid broken up in the 8th inning by the youngest Flying Molina brother.  Only 4 wins this year but the biggest regression for him has been in his run support vs. his ERA (2.88 ERA).

Josh Johnson – Complete game win giving up 3 earned.  The box score doesn’t show it, but this start was a bit of a nail-biter.  More of a nail-biter than the Lakers clinching win.  Speaking of which, the Lakers didn’t even seem to care.  Pile on someone.  Dump a Gatorade jug over Phil Jackson’s yellow Malcolm X hat.  Fog up Stuart Scott’s coke bottle glasses.  Something!  What a bore.  Then again, I don’t like basketball at all.  How hard is it for any of these guys to dunk?  About the same as me throwing a piece of paper in the trash.  You know what I want to see?  A basketball league of five-seven and under guys.  Now that would be interesting.  Where’s the skill?  He made a layup… He better, he’s six-seven!  /tangent

Okay, take off your aluminum foil cap you use to get better TV reception and put on your thinking cap because we’re going into The Land of Sabermetrics with your host, me.  Today we’re going to look at FIP.  Stands for Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s FIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Jair Jurrjens – -2.00 difference.  Meesa tinks Jar-Jar’s going to get in big trouble.

Doug Davis – -1.99.  No surprise here (I hope).  He’s not nearly as good as he’s been and he’s only sitting on a 3.25 ERA.  Here comes the youch!

Jered Weaver – -1.86.  This one surprised me.  I figured he was pitching as good as his numbers indicated, but it turns out his BABIP is low and his men left on base is high.  Maybe him and big bro might have more to talk about over the All-Star Break than their mullets.

Matt Cain – -1.83.  Upsetting for me because I have him on a lot of teams, but not completely surprising.  His walks will cut eyes out of a sheet and haunt him.

Kevin Millwood – -1.71.  You shouldn’t own him anyway outside of AL-Only leagues.

Chris Volstad – -1.70.  I knew he wasn’t this good!  Looks like the hurricane season might come early this year (<–Not sure if that makes sense, but seemed to fit.)

Joe Saunders – -1.58.  You didn’t really think he was a sub-3 ERA pitcher, did you?

Brett Myers – -1.46.  Not that surprising until you realize his ERA is already a 4.81.  That’s right, his FIP is 6.28.  Don’t wait around for the bounce back.

Johan Santana – -1.27.  But his FIP is still only 2.05.  You’d take a 2.05 ERA on the year and love it.

Tim Wakefield – -1.21.  Looks like he may get greeted with a *pinkie to mouth* knuckle sandwich.

Zach Duke – -1.10. Change is gonna come, nephew.

When you drafted John Lackey and/or Ervin Santana in your fantasy baseball leagues, you probably didn’t know that you weren’t going to see either of them until the middle of May.  Last year, Lackey suffered from a strained triceps (I think that’s near the biceps — I should’ve been a doctor!) and returned to solid results.  In 163 1/3 innings, he had a 3.75 ERA and 130 Ks.  In the abbreviated 1st half, he had a 2.47 ERA and 1.80 and 1.16 in May and June, respectively.  But in the 2nd half, he had a 4.99 ERA.  Red flag, right?  Not entirely.  He gave up more home runs than his career rate and there’s no reason to think he should give up that many homers again.  However, he’s not getting guys to swing and miss like he used to.  So a better 2nd half, but he’s not a 2.47 ERA pitcher for the whole year either.  Think 3.50/1.22 and 10 wins in 20+ starts.  Then there’s Ervin Santana.  He showed up on the risky pitchers list and promptly went down with an elbow injury.  This was probably due to being overworked last year.  The last two months of rest probably did his arm good, but he’s still a risky proposition.  He’s much more of an unknown on how he’ll bounce back this year.  If he returns with solid results in the first couple of starts, I’d try to flip him for a different piece unless you’re strapped for pitchers.  Don’t sell him for fiddy cents on the dollar.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Johan Santana – Mets have given him 9 runs of support in 7 starts.  They’ve also given up 4 unearned runs in those games.  Maybe he can start a support group with Dan Haren.

Carlos Delgado – Out a couple games with a nagging hip injury.  No fear – the Mets have…Fernando Tatis?  What does Omar Minaya do all winter?  Can you think of another team that doesn’t have a backup 1B on the roster or in AAA that is better than Fernando Tatis?  The Mets should trade for Kila Ka’aihue in the hopes he can be their lucky Hawaiian buddha like Benny Agbayani was.

Matt LaPorta – Seems to only be playing against lefties.  Makes him very difficult to own in mixed leagues.

Carl Pavano – Pavano is back from 3 1/2 years on the Disliked List to put up a 3-3 record for the Indians.  With a 6.45 ERA and 1.54 WHIP, consider Mike Mussina and Razzball unconvinced.

Ryan Zimmerman – 4-for-5, 2 HRs yesterday.  I talked him up in the preseason then didn’t get him in one draft.  Very frustrating.

Jay Bruce – 13 runs for the Reds.  0-for-5 for Bruce.  Ticker tease!

Adam Rosales – 3-for-5, HR yesterday, batting .295 for the year.  He’s filled in for me for Aramis in one very deep league and it’s worked out pretty well thus far.

Felipe Lopez – 3-for-4 with a homer.  You would think he was in an 0-for-100 slump with how many questions I get about whether he’s any good to own.  He’s a 2nd baseman going 20/20 and currently batting .323.

Justin Upton – Hit his 7th homer yesterday.  He’s breaking out.  Conor Jackson is breaking out too.  With chicken pox or shingles or something.

Derrek Lee – The bulging disk in his neck was ruled not career threatening.  His hitting on the other hand….

Derek Lowe – 5-1 with a 3.80 ERA.  The ERA is about where you expect it.  The Wins are a bit fluky.  Watching him pitch is like watching an artist mow his lawn.

Jhonny Peralta and Alexei Ramirez – 4-for-9 with 5 RBIs.  Rejoicing for everyone who just picked them up on the cheap.  Grumblings of “About fhuxeing time” for those that have had them since draft day.

Lastings Milledge – Suffered a broken finger in Triple A.  Luckily, he’s got a backup from when the Nats gave him the finger earlier this year.