Zen And The Art Of Fantasy Baseball: Ways To Break The Stick In Half, Part 2

The Moment of Zen:

Last week, we were introduced to an old koan in which a Zen student came up with a unique answer to what, at first, seemed like an unsolvable problem given by his Zen master. Instead of falling victim to the Zen master’s “double bind” question, the student simply broke the stick.

This week as I vacationed, I found myself reading a fascinating book, A. S. Tamaki’s The Book of Fallen Leaves, a fantasy set in long-ago Japan. While the book isn’t about Buddhism in particular, it certainly involves quite a few references to “the middle path” (even amid the many clashes for power over an empire). At one point in the book, a teacher explains to his student, 

You know … No matter how much one has – how much wisdom, how much insight, how much faith – a teacher can only teach what they know. That means there comes a day when you must rid yourself of them. Let go. Of your conceptions. Of your fears. And of the teachings themselves. They hold you back. Then you may move on.

The masters say, “When you cross a river, make sure you leave your boat behind.” A boat may help you once, maybe even save your life. But once you’ve reached another shore? You no longer need it. Don’t carry your raft with you everywhere you go. (The Book of Fallen Leaves 354-5)

Like the student who broke free from his Zen master’s restrictive “double bind” scenario by simply breaking the stick, the teacher in Tamaki’s book explains to his student that she will one day need to break away from him and his teaching. If the student is ever to become a master, she must believe in her own path – even if it differs from what she has been taught. Otherwise, she will always be limited to her role as a student in need of guidance, never allowing her to improve upon what she has learned, and maybe even teach what she has learned to others. In a sense, if she never becomes even wiser, more insightful, and more skilled than her teacher, she defeats the purpose of what her teacher was trying to help her do.

Growing beyond a master must be its own level of anxiety, but maybe it’s essential to the process.

 

How in the world does this apply to fantasy baseball?

Letting go of what we have learned from those who have come before us (or the boat that may have saved our life, in the case of the Tamaki example) is hard to do in real life, and it’s hard to do in fantasy baseball.

For me, one of the most challenging things about fantasy is when I see things that others I respect in the game apparently don’t. For instance, if I’m in on a player while no one else seems to be, that makes me extremely anxious. Anytime there’s a FAAB run, and I go spend a hefty chunk on a guy while the back-up bids for him are virtually nonexistent, I question myself. A lot. Anytime I roster a guy on as many of my teams as I can, then I check rostership percentages to see that he’s rostered in basically no other leagues, I question myself. A lot. In both cases, I start wondering: Option A – Did I see something everyone else didn’t? Option B – Or do I think I’m seeing something good that isn’t there?

Years ago, I would have decided the answer must be Option B. If the folks in the game whom I respect the most aren’t seeing what I think I’m seeing, I must not actually be seeing it. Now, when a similar dilemma presents itself, I still question myself and wonder if I’ve screwed up, but I usually decide to trust myself (and ultimately believe in Option A). Obviously, sometimes I end up being wrong, but I also end up being right. A couple of instances this season that come to mind, when it felt like I must be seeing something that simply didn’t exist: 

• Early in the year, I had Ben Brown rostered everywhere, but his rostership across other leagues was pretty much microscopic. I doubted myself for weeks – until Brown showed everyone what the Ben Brown-truthers (like me) already believed. 
• Or you might remember the week I closed my article with a note about trying to understand why I spent so much FAAB money on Christian Scott. I got Scott everywhere that week, and I had gone big on him in a couple of leagues where I was really concerned about pitching help – only to find out that there were no back-up bids. I mean, zero. Oof. So I was just spending money against myself. The very next week, though, Christian Scott was suddenly very interesting, and folks were spending money (but not in my leagues since I had already wildly overspent on him!!).

 

In that spirit, I return to our process from last week when we looked at how to “break the stick” when it comes to hitting stats by trying to focus on numbers that are right in front of us – but stats that lots of fantasy managers overlook. This week, we’ll do another similar round. This time, I take a look at the pitching side of things, trying to come up with creative ways to make up standings points any way we can – and, more importantly, to maybe even find some guys that we’ve overlooked this season. 

I’ll try to make things a little shorter this week if I can, so the focus will just be on 4 categories: IP, K, K/9, and K/BB. 

Like last week, I checked MLB leader lists, both season-long and over the last 30 days (for hitters, I did over the last 15 days because hitter trends might be a bit clearer a little sooner). Once I ran those leader lists (taking the first 3 screens of leaderboard results, so roughly top 75 or so), I then checked to see which of those names was rostered at a rate of 65% or below on both ESPN and Yahoo. Every name listed below belongs to a pitcher who made the top 75 (or so) in ALL 4 CATEGORIES over the period in question (either season-long or over the last 30 days). For reading ease, I’ve broken the season-long into its own list and done the same for the rostership for those pitchers who have reached the leaderboard over the last 30 days:

 

Season-long top 75(ish): IP, K, K/9, K/BB

Name	NFBC OC	ESPN	Yahoo
Andrew Abbott, CIN	96%	42.3%	63%
Joey Cantillo, CLE**	100%	34%	63%
Reid Detmers, LAA**	98%	48.6%	59%
J.T. Ginn, ATH**	86%	23.4%	42%
Seth Lugo, KCR	79%	23.6%	26%
Landen Roupp, SFG	99%	28.5%	43%
Michael Wacha, KCR	95%	56.8%	60%
Will Warren, NYY	93%	48.7%	61%

**Rank in the top 75(ish) in all 4 categories for both periods (season-long and the last 30 days).

 

Last 30 days top 75(ish): IP, K, K/9, K/BB

Name	NFBC OC	ESPN	Yahoo
Jake Bennett, BOS	99%	43.4%	56%
Joey Cantillo, CLE**	100%	34%	63%
Reid Detmers, LAA**	98%	48.6%	59%
Shane Drohan, MIL	98%	13.4%	37%
J.T. Ginn, ATH**	86%	23.4%	42%
Griffin Jax, TAM	100%	44.7%	56%
Peter Lambert, HOU	98%	33.1%	54%
Ian Seymour, TAM	100%	25.4%	46%
Brady Singer, CIN	28%	8.1%	18%

**Rank in the top 75(ish) in all 4 categories for both periods (season-long and the last 30 days).

 

OK, we have two lists of interesting, if surprising names, but the rostership lists don’t tell us whether these pitchers can help us (except that they’ve managed to make the leaderboard in all 4 interesting categories). Once we look at performance, though, we’ll see some names on the list who are doing significantly helpful things for a fantasy team – but we’ll also see some pitchers who can pretty much guarantee you get your ratios wrecked.

First, we’ll look at the season-long list, and I’ll add ERA and WHIP to the stat sheets for an easy reference of performance:

 

Season-long top 75(ish): IP, K, K/9, K/BB

Name	IP	K	K/9	K/BB	ERA	WHIP
Andrew Abbott, CIN	105	84	7.2	1.75	4.11	1.42++
Joey Cantillo, CLE**	104.1	111	9.52	2.16	3.54	1.4++
Reid Detmers, LAA**	114.2	130	10.2	3.71	4.16	1.12
J.T. Ginn, ATH**	109.1	100	8.23	2.04	3.46	1.22
Seth Lugo, KCR	110.2	89	7.24	2.47	4.39++	1.41++
Landen Roupp, SFG	104	106	9.17	2.36	3.98	1.27
Michael Wacha, KCR	119.1	96	7.24	2.82	3.77	1.19
Will Warren, NYY	98.1	96	8.79	2.91	4.03	1.36++

Bold-faced numbers reflect significant impact in category (100+ K, 9+ K/9, 3+ K/BB, ≤3.99 ERA, ≤1.19 WHIP)

**Rank in the top 75(ish) in all 4 categories for both periods (season-long and the last 30 days).

++Red numbers reflect stats that sting (≥4.25 ERA, ≥1.30 WHIP)

 

Season-long takeaways: 

• Reid Detmers and Joey Cantillo are striking guys out left and right. Cantillo, though, is putting lots of guys on base too, so he’s a WHIP liability. Detmers’s WHIP, on the other hand, suggests he’s been unlucky regarding ERA (and his 3.26 xERA and .218 xBA also seem to support that he’s been unlucky). 
• J.T. Ginn and Landen Roupp aren’t striking out quite as many, but they are putting guys away at rates that are definitely worth rostering. 
• Andrew Abbott, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha are simply voluming their way to helpful strikeout totals. Their K/9 aren’t exactly impressive, but lots of innings eventually equal lots of Ks. The Abbott and Lugo volume approaches come with some major ratio risk though, so those guys may only be helpful if your ratios are already shot. Wacha, on the other hand, that man deserves some respect.
• Ginn, Roupp, and Wacha should be much more widely rostered.

 

Now, let’s take a look at the last 30 days:

 

Last 30 days top 75(ish): IP, K, K/9, K/BB

Name	IP	K	K/9	K/BB	ERA	WHIP
Jake Bennett, BOS	33	25	6.82	6.25	0.82	0.64
Joey Cantillo, CLE**	29	38	11.79	2.92	1.55	1.17
Reid Detmers, LAA**	26.2	30	10.13	2.73	5.74++	1.46++
Shane Drohan, MIL	28.1	29	9.21	4.14	2.86	1.20
J.T. Ginn, ATH**	32	32	9	1.88	4.78++	1.34++
Griffin Jax, TAM	26	31	10.73	3.88	4.85++	1.19
Peter Lambert, HOU	28	33	10.61	3	2.57	1.11
Ian Seymour, TAM	29.1	38	11.66	5.43	4.60++	1.02
Brady Singer, CIN	30.2	30	8.8	3.75	2.93	0.98

Bold-faced numbers reflect significant impact in category (30+ K, 9+ K/9, 3+ K/BB, ≤3.99 ERA, ≤1.19 WHIP)

**Rank in the top 75(ish) in all 4 categories for both periods (season-long and the last 30 days).

++Red numbers reflect stats that sting (≥4.25 ERA, ≥1.30 WHIP)

 

Takeaways from the last 30 days: 

There are some interesting names on this list, names that we wouldn’t ordinarily be paying much attention to.

• Is Cantillo figuring something out? His season-long WHIP is kind of painful, but he’s nothing short of an ace over the last 30 days.
• Shane Drohan is another one of those guys that I went out and picked up off waivers everywhere, once again with virtually no back-up bids from anyone. But so far, so good. Peter Lambert deserves our attention as well.
• Detmer’s and Ginn’s ERAs and WHIPs over the last 30 days make their season-long numbers look even more impressive. Despite their recent struggles, they’ve put together helpful stat lines overall.
• Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour have very nice looking WHIPs while their ERAs are looking painful. In cases like that, I trust the WHIP. I think these guys might be significant profits for the last third of the season.
• This isn’t the Brady Singer I remember? I think I need to make him a focus for an upcoming week. He must have changed something, and I’m definitely interested to know more.
• Jake Bennett is putting up nice ratio stats, but he certainly isn’t dominant in doing it. Is regression coming? Or do we have another Wacha on our hands?

 

Do I want to go out and roster everyone on these two lists? No, I don’t. But do these lists tell me that I’m probably overlooking some guys I need to pay more attention to? Yes, I think they do. Looks like I have some FAAB work to do.

Until next week. –ADHamley