No Doubt
Player | Team | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 |
---|---|---|---|
Lucas Giolito | CHW | @KC | @TB |
Luis Castillo | CIN | @CHC | STL |
Walker Buehler | LAD | @PHI | MIA |
Clayton Kershaw | LAD | @PHI | MIA |
Donkey Teeth and I have profiled everyone in this grouping, except Kershaw, at some point or another on the podcast. If you want some detailed profiles, go check out those various episodes. Outside of the first week of the season, this is the toughest week to figure out the 2 start pitchers. There’s a lot of educated guessing in here, and hopefully, it helps your preparation. The table at the bottom may end up being more helpful once more starters are announced Monday and Tuesday. Nothing more here, start these guys.
Pretty…Pretty Good
Player | Team | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 |
Kyle Hendricks | CHC | CIN | SD |
James Paxton | NYY | TB | COL |
Brandon Woodruff | MIL | ATL | @ARI |
Kyle Hendricks has been his usual, steady self this season. The Ks aren’t impressive, but with 2 starts this week, you should feel pretty safe throwing him out there.
James Paxton and Brandon Woodruff have been a little up and down this season, but have maintained impressive K rates. Woodruff has 5 quality starts in his last 6, which coupled with the strikeout potential is more than enough to earn him a start. This season, if you can find somebody to get you Ks that doesn’t have too many massive blow up games, that’s a winner.
While Paxton had that horrendous start against the Blue Jays before the break, the upside is enough and opponents friendly enough to throw him out there in just about any league. He’s currently sporting the best swinging strike rate and K rate of his career, and should be in for some posi-gression with his current .358 BABIP, which is outside of his career average at slightly above .300.
Start Em If You Got Em
Player | Team | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 |
Zack Wheeler | NYM | @MIN | @SF |
German Marquez | COL | SF | @NYY |
Brad Peacock | HOU | @LAA | TEX |
Max Fried | ATL | @MIL | WSH |
Joe Musgrove | PIT | @STL | PHI |
Donkey Teeth and I also just looked at Zack Wheeler on the most recent podcast, and found minimal differences between this year and 2018. He’s struggled to get out of the gates and also out of the stretch, but has flashed the upside we know is there. With 2 plus ballparks this week, start em if you got em.
I was a big German Marquez supported in the pre-season, and while we knew he wasn’t going to be that pitcher from the 2nd half (much like Wheeler), the skills were there and the stuff is nasty.
Well, the K rate has not held up, which was the skill that I expected to buoy his value even with some less than great home starts thrown into the mix. His home start this week is against the Giants who are one of 9 teams to reach the 400 runs mark on the season, and while the Yankees on the road are less than ideal, Marquez is sporting a 3.33 ERA on the road this season with a better K% and BB%.
Brown Paper Bag
Player | Team | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 |
CC Sabathia | NYY | TB | COL |
Rick Porcello | BOS | TOR | @BAL |
Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | @CHC | STL |
Jordan Yamamoto | MIA | SD | @LAD |
Originally titled as ‘Serviceable’, just couldn’t bring myself to leave that headline in place as it didn’t feel correct. There’s a lot more hoping and wishing in this group than serviceability.
Anthony Desclafani’s recent performance should warrant a better place in the groupings, but I’m skeptical that he can continue given his track record of mediocrity. However, since June, in 6 starts, Disco has a 3.06 ERA, 1.36 WHIP (not great) with a 25.4% K rate and what would be a career best 5.8% BB rate over that period. While I don’t necessarily believe this string of good starts continues, it has not been all luck either as he’s actually been a bit unlucky with a .359 BABIP and has been supported by a sub 3 FIP.
Eyes Wide Shut
Player | Team | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 |
Jeff Samardzija | SF | @COL | NYM |
Jakob Junis | KC | CHW | @CLE |
Framber Valdez | HOU | @LAA | TEX |
Dylan Cease | CHW | @KC | @TB |
Daniel Norris | DET | @CLE | TOR |
Bryse Wilson | ATL | @MIL | WSH |
Free Streamonator Pick of The Week: If you’ve been reading the 2 start column regularly, you can probably guess another free pick, but going to switch it up this week and let you know that Streamonator likes Framber at the Angels and home for the Rangers.
I Immediately Regret This Decision
Player | Team | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 |
Adrian Houser | MIL | ATL | @ARI |
Glenn Sparkman | KC | CHW | @CLE |
Drew Pomeranz | SF | @COL | NYM |
Notes
- There’s a lot of TBDs on here that I did my best to figure out.
- San Francisco has a double header on Monday. They could use both Monday starters as 2 start pitchers rather than the Tuesday stater.
- Repeat, San Diego is running a 6 man rotation, so, no 2 starters predicted for the week.
Team | Probable 2 Start Days | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 |
AL East | |||
BAL | X | WSH | BOS |
BOS | Monday, Tuesday | TOR | @BAL |
NYY | Monday, Tuesday | TB | COL |
TB | Monday, Tuesday | @NYY | CWS |
TOR | Monday, Tuesday | @BOS | @DET |
AL Central | |||
CWS | Monday, Tuesday | @KC | @TB |
CLE | Monday, Tuesday | DET | KC |
DET | Monday, Tuesday | @CLE | TOR |
KC | Monday, Tuesday | CWS | @CLE |
MIN | Tuesday | NYM | OAK |
AL West | |||
HOU | Monday, Tuesday | @LAA | TEX |
LAA | Monday, Tuesday | HOU | @SEA |
OAK | Tuesday | SEA | @MIN |
SEA | X | @OAK | LAA |
TEX | X | ARZ | @HOU |
NL East | |||
ATL | Monday, Tuesday | @MIL | WSH |
MIA | Tuesday | SD | @LAD |
NYM | Tuesday | @MIN | @SF |
PHI | Monday, Tuesday | LAD | @PIT |
WSH | Tuesday | @BAL | @ATL |
NL Central | |||
CHC | Monday | CIN | SD |
CIN | Monday, Tuesday | @CHC | STL |
MIL | Monday, Tuesday | ATL | @ARZ |
PIT | Monday | @STL | PHI |
STL | Monday, Tuesday | PIT | @CIN |
NL West | |||
ARZ | Tuesday | @TEX | MIL |
COL | Monday | SF | @NYY |
LAD | Monday, Tuesday | @PHI | MIA |
SD | X | @MIA | @CHC |
SF | Monday, Tuesday | @COL | NYM |
In a 14 team keeper league who could i realistically target on offense for Giolito? I have an offer for my kingery for jon gray and seems like a good opportunity to get max value for Giolito.
my other SP: paxton, lynn, eduardo rodriquez, gibson, archer, meada.
If you’re competing this year, I’m not sure your rotation will take the hit of losing GIolito gracefully, but I’d be looking at guys like Yordan, C Seager, Matt Chapman, Moncada, Eloy.
Nice writeup, B_Don!
Can I ask about RPs? I almost feel like that is similar to asking Grey about Catchers!
I hope it isn’t…
14-team 5×5 roto
(Saves+Holds)
I have Brad Hand and Liam Hendriks. I’m looking for a couple more arms to use when I don’t like a SP matchup.
Pick 2:
Hembree, Kelley, Minter, Romo, Cishek, Stammen, Brasier, Swarzak, Edwards Jr, Jimenez, Hirano, Castillo, Parker, Claudio, Morgan, Baez, Petit, Chafin, and Bummer.
Kelley and Romo, maybe Castillo, if you’re looking at save opps. For ratios, you have many options, but I’d look at Swarzak and Hembree.
Agree why no Pineda mention ….
See above. Appreciate the update/information.
A lot of question marks when I started my research for this week in particular, but have to draw the line somewhere to start ranking. Hadn’t seen them announce Pineda at the time I started writing it up.
What about Heaney? Streamonator has him at 2 starts next week.
It does look like Heaney has been announced as the starter on Tuesday, which would give him 2 starts barring a 6 man rotation from the Angels. Heaney basically seems to be alternating good and bad starts, which, along with his general track record, makes me hesitant to buy in. Not a favorable couple match-ups either, stick him in the Brown Paper Bag group.
Ahoy hoy,
I think canning is scheduled for 2 starts;
Monday, vs Houston
Saturday, @ Seattle
What tier would the griffin fall under?
Thanks,
Handy
Brown Paper Bag, but an argument could be made to move him up. Just not a fan of his match-ups this week. 2 top 12 offenses overall and vs righties. He does at least play in 2 favorable parks to help him with that ridiculous (small sample size) FB rate.
Thanks. That’s what I was thinking. Would you rather go with those two risky starts from canning, or either of:
Gallen @ dodgers
Chirinos @ yankees
Format is h2h, with locked lineups. The guy I’m playing this week has no closers, and I’ve already gotten 2 saves from my guys. The sp’s I’ve mentioned are my options to stand in for my closers.
Thanks,
Handy
Unless you’re chasing Ks, I think I’d roll with Yonny.
Much appreciated, B_Don.
Have fun,
Handy
So no comment on Pineda?
Pineda hadn’t been announced as the Twins Tuesday starter when I finished my research for the article. Been pitching fairly well since May started with a 3.82 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 24% K rate, and 3.9% BB rate. He is getting a nice 13.8% swinging strike rate over that time, which would be the 2nd best of his career.
Stick him in the Start Em If You Got Em