No Doubt

Player Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2
Lucas Giolito CHW @KC @TB
Luis Castillo CIN @CHC STL
Walker Buehler LAD @PHI MIA
Clayton Kershaw LAD @PHI MIA

Donkey Teeth and I have profiled everyone in this grouping, except Kershaw, at some point or another on the podcast. If you want some detailed profiles, go check out those various episodes. Outside of the first week of the season, this is the toughest week to figure out the 2 start pitchers. There’s a lot of educated guessing in here, and hopefully, it helps your preparation. The table at the bottom may end up being more helpful once more starters are announced Monday and Tuesday. Nothing more here, start these guys.

 

Pretty…Pretty Good

Player Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2
Kyle Hendricks CHC CIN SD
James Paxton NYY TB COL
Brandon Woodruff MIL ATL @ARI

Kyle Hendricks has been his usual, steady self this season. The Ks aren’t impressive, but with 2 starts this week, you should feel pretty safe throwing him out there.

James Paxton and Brandon Woodruff have been a little up and down this season, but have maintained impressive K rates. Woodruff has 5 quality starts in his last 6, which coupled with the strikeout potential is more than enough to earn him a start. This season, if you can find somebody to get you Ks that doesn’t have too many massive blow up games, that’s a winner.

While Paxton had that horrendous start against the Blue Jays before the break, the upside is enough and opponents friendly enough to throw him out there in just about any league. He’s currently sporting the best swinging strike rate and K rate of his career, and should be in for some posi-gression with his current .358 BABIP, which is outside of his career average at slightly above .300.

 

Start Em If You Got Em

Player Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2
Zack Wheeler NYM @MIN @SF
German Marquez COL SF @NYY
Brad Peacock HOU @LAA TEX
Max Fried ATL @MIL WSH
Joe Musgrove PIT @STL PHI

Donkey Teeth and I also just looked at Zack Wheeler on the most recent podcast, and found minimal differences between this year and 2018. He’s struggled to get out of the gates and also out of the stretch, but has flashed the upside we know is there. With 2 plus ballparks this week, start em if you got em.

I was a big German Marquez supported in the pre-season, and while we knew he wasn’t going to be that pitcher from the 2nd half (much like Wheeler), the skills were there and the stuff is nasty.

Well, the K rate has not held up, which was the skill that I expected to buoy his value even with some less than great home starts thrown into the mix. His home start this week is against the Giants who are one of 9 teams to reach the 400 runs mark on the season, and while the Yankees on the road are less than ideal, Marquez is sporting a 3.33 ERA on the road this season with a better K% and BB%.

 

Brown Paper Bag

Player Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2
CC Sabathia NYY TB COL
Rick Porcello BOS TOR @BAL
Anthony DeSclafani CIN @CHC STL
Jordan Yamamoto MIA SD @LAD

Originally titled as ‘Serviceable’, just couldn’t bring myself to leave that headline in place as it didn’t feel correct.  There’s a lot more hoping and wishing in this group than serviceability.

Anthony Desclafani’s recent performance should warrant a better place in the groupings, but I’m skeptical that he can continue given his track record of mediocrity. However, since June, in 6 starts, Disco has a 3.06 ERA, 1.36 WHIP (not great) with a 25.4% K rate and what would be a career best 5.8% BB rate over that period. While I don’t necessarily believe this string of good starts continues, it has not been all luck either as he’s actually been a bit unlucky with a .359 BABIP and has been supported by a sub 3 FIP.

 

Eyes Wide Shut

Player Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2
Jeff Samardzija SF @COL NYM
Jakob Junis KC CHW @CLE
Framber Valdez HOU @LAA TEX
Dylan Cease CHW @KC @TB
Daniel Norris DET @CLE TOR
Bryse Wilson ATL @MIL WSH

Free Streamonator Pick of The Week: If you’ve been reading the 2 start column regularly, you can probably guess another free pick, but going to switch it up this week and let you know that Streamonator likes Framber at the Angels and home for the Rangers.

 

I Immediately Regret This Decision

Player Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2
Adrian Houser MIL ATL @ARI
Glenn Sparkman KC CHW @CLE
Drew Pomeranz SF @COL NYM

 

Notes

  • There’s a lot of TBDs on here that I did my best to figure out.
    • TBDs
      • Boston Monday, Detroit Monday, Houston Tuesday, Kansas City Monday and Tuesday, Miami Tuesday, Yankees Monday, Yankees Tuesday
  • San Francisco has a double header on Monday. They could use both Monday starters as 2 start pitchers rather than the Tuesday stater.
  • Repeat, San Diego is running a 6 man rotation, so, no 2 starters predicted for the week.
Team Probable 2 Start Days Opp. 1 Opp. 2
AL East
BAL X WSH BOS
BOS Monday, Tuesday TOR @BAL
NYY Monday, Tuesday TB COL
TB Monday, Tuesday @NYY CWS
TOR Monday, Tuesday @BOS @DET
AL Central
CWS Monday, Tuesday @KC @TB
CLE Monday, Tuesday DET KC
DET Monday, Tuesday @CLE TOR
KC Monday, Tuesday CWS @CLE
MIN Tuesday NYM OAK
AL West
HOU Monday, Tuesday @LAA TEX
LAA Monday, Tuesday HOU @SEA
OAK Tuesday SEA @MIN
SEA X @OAK LAA
TEX X ARZ @HOU
NL East
ATL Monday, Tuesday @MIL WSH
MIA Tuesday SD @LAD
NYM Tuesday @MIN @SF
PHI Monday, Tuesday LAD @PIT
WSH Tuesday @BAL @ATL
NL Central
CHC Monday CIN SD
CIN Monday, Tuesday @CHC STL
MIL Monday, Tuesday ATL @ARZ
PIT Monday @STL PHI
STL Monday, Tuesday PIT @CIN
NL West
ARZ Tuesday @TEX MIL
COL Monday SF @NYY
LAD Monday, Tuesday @PHI MIA
SD X @MIA @CHC
SF Monday, Tuesday @COL NYM
  1. Mike says:
    (link)

    So no comment on Pineda?

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
      (link)

      Pineda hadn’t been announced as the Twins Tuesday starter when I finished my research for the article. Been pitching fairly well since May started with a 3.82 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 24% K rate, and 3.9% BB rate. He is getting a nice 13.8% swinging strike rate over that time, which would be the 2nd best of his career.

      Stick him in the Start Em If You Got Em

  2. Handy Afterall says:
    (link)

    Ahoy hoy,

    I think canning is scheduled for 2 starts;

    Monday, vs Houston
    Saturday, @ Seattle

    What tier would the griffin fall under?

    Thanks,
    Handy

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
      (link)

      Brown Paper Bag, but an argument could be made to move him up. Just not a fan of his match-ups this week. 2 top 12 offenses overall and vs righties. He does at least play in 2 favorable parks to help him with that ridiculous (small sample size) FB rate.

      • Handy Afterall says:
        (link)

        Thanks. That’s what I was thinking. Would you rather go with those two risky starts from canning, or either of:

        Gallen @ dodgers
        Chirinos @ yankees

        Format is h2h, with locked lineups. The guy I’m playing this week has no closers, and I’ve already gotten 2 saves from my guys. The sp’s I’ve mentioned are my options to stand in for my closers.

        Thanks,
        Handy

        • B_Don

          B_Don says:
          (link)

          Unless you’re chasing Ks, I think I’d roll with Yonny.

          • Handy Afterall says:
            (link)

            Much appreciated, B_Don.

            Have fun,
            Handy

  3. Erik Flom says:
    (link)

    What about Heaney? Streamonator has him at 2 starts next week.

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
      (link)

      It does look like Heaney has been announced as the starter on Tuesday, which would give him 2 starts barring a 6 man rotation from the Angels. Heaney basically seems to be alternating good and bad starts, which, along with his general track record, makes me hesitant to buy in. Not a favorable couple match-ups either, stick him in the Brown Paper Bag group.

  4. Cable says:
    (link)

    Agree why no Pineda mention ….

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
      (link)

      See above. Appreciate the update/information.

      A lot of question marks when I started my research for this week in particular, but have to draw the line somewhere to start ranking. Hadn’t seen them announce Pineda at the time I started writing it up.

  5. Kruk_Ain't_An_Athlete says:
    (link)

    Nice writeup, B_Don!

    Can I ask about RPs? I almost feel like that is similar to asking Grey about Catchers!

    I hope it isn’t…
    14-team 5×5 roto
    (Saves+Holds)

    I have Brad Hand and Liam Hendriks. I’m looking for a couple more arms to use when I don’t like a SP matchup.

    Pick 2:

    Hembree, Kelley, Minter, Romo, Cishek, Stammen, Brasier, Swarzak, Edwards Jr, Jimenez, Hirano, Castillo, Parker, Claudio, Morgan, Baez, Petit, Chafin, and Bummer.

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
      (link)

      Kelley and Romo, maybe Castillo, if you’re looking at save opps. For ratios, you have many options, but I’d look at Swarzak and Hembree.

  6. greg says:
    (link)

    In a 14 team keeper league who could i realistically target on offense for Giolito? I have an offer for my kingery for jon gray and seems like a good opportunity to get max value for Giolito.

    my other SP: paxton, lynn, eduardo rodriquez, gibson, archer, meada.

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
      (link)

      If you’re competing this year, I’m not sure your rotation will take the hit of losing GIolito gracefully, but I’d be looking at guys like Yordan, C Seager, Matt Chapman, Moncada, Eloy.

Comments are closed.