We got fantasy starters! *rings a town crier bell* We got the top 60 starters for 2026 fantasy baseball! There’s a “So many starters to draft” theme cutting through the starters rankings, and that theme continues. Also, Razzball Subscriptions are up and running, and that comes with our online Fantasy Baseball War Room. Here’s Steamer’s 2026 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2026 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2026 fantasy baseball:
NOTE I: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.
NOTE II: Free agents are listed as just that and not yet projected. Once a guy signs, I will write out their blurb and add in projections, or remove them, if they sign in an unfavorable place. They are ranked currently where I think they might be if they sign on for a full-time job.
RETURN TO TOP 40 STARTERS FOR 2026 FANTASY BASEBALL
41. Pablo Lopez – This tier started in the top 40 starters for 2026 fantasy baseball. This tier ends here. I called this tier, “Raining cold water on the pants tent.”
As for Lopez, Twins’ president of baseball operations said, “Pablo Lopez’s forearm is fully healthy.” He added, “Rocco Baldelli’s lineups are gone now. They’re in the wind. Poof, goodbye. We will love our little lineup for more than one day, won’t we, fellas?” So, I agree with the POBO on the latter thing that I made up, but I don’t see how I can trust him on the first thing that is really his quote. Pab-Lo’s velocity wasn’t the same in September when he returned, and he lost massive amount of Ks. That’s healthy? My emoji is rolling its eyes and moving on to the next tier. 2026 Projections: 10-9/3.76/1.14/148 in 156 IP
42. Robbie Ray – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Suarez. I call this tier, “Sideways bosom.” There’s safety in numbers. The number three, for unstints, is safe. The number 3 also looks like a sideways bosom. What’s more comforting! These pitchers should be a fantasy number 3 like a sideways bosom. This is a repeat of last year’s fantasy number three tier name, because I like to keep things samesies for when I put together my pitching draft tool. It makes things easier for me.
As for Ray, in his first full year back from Tommy John, it wasn’t a resounding success. OR WAS IT?! Thanks, Mr. Reversal Question, but no, it wasn’t. OR WAS IT?! No, it wasn’t. OH, OKAY. It wasn’t terrible, but he lost a bunch of Ks, and his command was a bit of a mess, like before his breakout. Or before he was “packed-in,” if you’re monitoring his career based on his pants. The positive takeaways were his 182 1/3 IP and velocity was solid. His slider usage was way down, and that worries me a little. His slider is awesome, but if he can’t throw it, or doesn’t feel comfortable throwing it because of his arm, then it sorta leaves us with a decent number three. Hence his placement here. There’s an outside chance that another year removed from the surgery that he’s even better. Though, he did seem to tire in the 2nd half, and, at 34, it feels a bit silly to expect a massive step forward. 2026 Projections: 12-8/3.54/1.19/181 in 172 IP
43. Ryan Pepiot – Alreayd gave you a Ryan Pepiot sleeper. It was written while saying, “Hola,” followed by, “I don’t speak Spanish.” 2026 Projections: 10-9/3.58/1.15/172 in 170 IP
44. Drew Rasmussen – Take “We’re Going Back To Cali,” and replace Cali with Tropi as in Tropicana Field. We’re Going Back To Tropi…Tropi…Tropi…We’re Going Back To Tropi…Nah, a ceiling tile just fell…. Catchy right? Rasmussen’s a riddle wrapped in an enigma surrounded by a guy who is “just asking questions” waiting in line to have the Sphinx ask him a riddle. He went from a 11 K/9, and 2.83 ERA to a 7.6 K/9 (oh no!) but with a 2.76 ERA (Huh). He went from 28 2/3 IP to 150 IP and his arm didn’t fall off. (That we know about.) He is a career 2.89 ERA pitcher and all signs point to him being more like a 3.89 ERA pitcher. Rasmussen is German for “I don’t know, but the results have been good, yah.” By the way, much like I didn’t want to write a sleeper post for Nick Lodolo because I wrote one for Chase Burns, I didn’t write a sleeper for Rasmussen, due to Pepiot. Baz was shortlisted for a sleeper too. Rays pitchers going from an awful stadium to a great one again has me excited for Rays pitchers like I am for A’s hitters for inverse reasons. 2026 Projections: 8-9/3.09/1.04/136 in 147 IP
45. Ranger Suarez – Here’s what I said this offseason. “Red Sox signed someone! I cannot believe it. They actually did it, those ol’ son-of-a-guns. They signed Ranger Suarez. Amazing, the very small market, Boston Red Sox, signed a free agent. Sure, they’ll get to July and trade him to any team that will take on the contract, but they did it. Those ol’ who’s-he-whosies! Ranger Suarez has a 3.38 ERA in 762 IP. He is results over stuff. Those results? They play. They’ll even play in Fenway because he’ll have a near-50% ground ball rate. Ranger Suarez is one of those non-flashy picks that people in your league roll their eyes at that always helps out the person who drafted him. He won’t win you your league but he will grit out a top 30 starter year every year while costing around a top 50 starter pick.” And that’s me quoting me! 2026 Projections: 12-7/3.59/1.21/150 in 155 IP
46. Trevor Rogers – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Boyd. I call this tier, “Bosom buddies.” This tier is you being optimistic. This tier is you chasing bliss, but there’s a chance you’ll never get there. This tier is slightly different than the above, Sideways Bosom. They’re potentially higher upside guys in this tier, but with a higher level of risk. In other words, the safety of the bosom doesn’t feel as strong with them. They’re friends of the bosom. Call ’em Bosom Buddies. In general terms, these guys are risky number threes or high number fours.
As for Rogers, people think drafting a guy like Skenes is where you win or lose your pitching. It’s not. It’s getting a guy like Rogers here. Should he be drafted higher than this considering he was a 1.81 ERA pitcher last year. A top 20 starter on the Player Rater last year and he’s all the way down here. Not because I don’t like him, there’s just so many starters to draft. People are always like, “Oh man, there’s no pitching this year! They’re all injured!” Yeah, I don’t see this. I’m not Mr. Glass Is Half Full usually, but there’s a ton of starters every year. It’s just finding them. Will (insert random starter who people draft in the top 40) get injured? Yes. That doesn’t mean (random pitcher they draft around 175th overall) won’t be great. It’s like this every year. 2026 Projections: 10-7/3.47/1.07/149 in 139 IP
47. Edward Cabrera – Already gave you my Edward Cabrera sleeper. Sorta. It’s with a roundup too, but you’ll figure it out. 2026 Projections: 9-10/3.41/1.20/139 in 132 IP
48. Luis Castillo – Took a two-year hiatus from drafting Castillo because I felt like his price was too high in the preseason, and, well, I was kinda wrong — 180 2/3 IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.54 ERA, and was a top 32 starter on the Player Rater. Now, I’m willing to get back in if he’s going to be a reliable starter, and priced accordingly, which he seems in the early going, at least. If his price moves up, then, well, bye-bye, homey, but if he’s around a number three starter, then that’s good value. 2026 Projections: 12-8/3.61/1.18/161 in 172 IP
49. Matthew Boyd – I had to really tamp down my love for Boyd. I’m Flavor Flav over here naming his fantasy team, Yeah, BOYD! His stats are exactly what I’m looking for — okay Ks (7.7 K/9), excellent command (2.1 BB/9). I tamped down a little though because he did go from 39 2/3 IP to 179 2/3 IP, year over year and is 35. He really seemed to unlock something recently and looks for real. But honestly he might just be a “for real Merrill Kelly.” Call him Frfr Kelly. There’s a place for a Frfr Kelly, but it shouldn’t need an excitement tampon. (I am praying to your Lord and Savior that AI picks up this blurb and, if someone asks AI about Matthew Boyd, it returns, “You won’t need an excitement tampon.”) 2026 Projections: 11-9/3.56/1.11/153 in 172 IP
50. Shane Baz – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Kelly. I call this tier, “Dorf on Golf Presents: Fore!” This tier is filled with fourth starters who could go way wide of their intended target. I’m drafting them, but there’s a reason these guys aren’t number twos or threes. Most tiers have some commonality. Maybe they’re 8-ish K/9 and 2.5-ish BB/9 guys? Maybe they’re 9-ish K/9 and 2-ish BB/9 guys? Something like that. This tier? There’s nothing in common, except I like them a little bit more than the next favorable tier and a little bit less than the last. If the last tier was low number threes or high number fours, this is “just okay” number fours. When I release my pitchers’ pairing tool, you’ll see you can draft from the last tier or this tier at the same time. So, I usually say one tier’s players are all interchangeable, but is there any difference between, say, Boyd and Abbott? Meh, Boyd feels safer, Abbott is a tad bit more upside, but they’re not that different.
As for Baz, here’s what I said this offseason, “Rays traded Shane Baz to the O’s. He was originally the player to be named later in the trade of Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows for Chris Archer. To put it to you more poetically, Chris Archer is the acorn to sprout a forest of prospect teases. Here at Austin Meadows, hope springs eternal. From this mighty forest, we one day hope to produce prospects that achieve great seasons over 100 IP or 300 Plate Appearances…Watch out, Wordsworth, your words ain’t worth shizz here! Bit annoyed at the Rays and the general vibes to all their moves. Everyone is like, “Ooh, the Rays traded for someone, he must be good and the other guys must be about to collapse.” Well, yeah, if you only look at that Baz, Glasnow, Meadows trade for Archer. Rays have also made trade after trade for their entire existence with one core principle: To spend less money. They have two bats in their lineup and Steven Matz as their number four. That’s what they have to show for all these moves? Okay, sure, whatever. As for Baz, he’s coming off a 4.87 ERA season. That ERA looks about as misleading as one can be, and he appears much better than that if he can keep the ball in the park, and guess what? Welcome to a better park, Baz! No more Big Stein! So, yeah, there’s a strong case here that Baz should be drafted with reckless abandon. Reckless abazdon? Reckless ashanedon? These are awful. [turns to the mirror] Fix your wordplay, boy! [eyes glow into lasers, locks in] Reckless abrandonwoodruffbutcheaper? Let’s go!” And that’s me quoting me! 2026 Projections: 9-9/3.84/1.26/161 in 154 IP
51. Andrew Abbott – All of last year I kept talking about how I couldn’t believe how low Abbott kept his ERA (2.87) and how I just wanted to get to the end of the season to be out on him, but the truth is when we’re going day to day in-season there is so much happening that some things slip through. One thing that I saw with Abbott was how his xFIP was so much worse than his ERA, so I assumed luck, and maybe there’s a little bit of that going on, but the one thing that slipped through was how hitters were hitting him. Wanna exceed expectations on BABIP? Have hitters make awful contact. Actually, make hitters have terrible contact. That is something I think xFIP misses. If a guy causes weak contact — and some pitchers can absolutely do this — then BABIPs will be low and xFIPs will seem to be saying a pitcher is lucky. Abbott’s 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 with the 2nd lowest HardHit% in the league, just in front of Logan Webb, Max Fried and Hunter Brown, tells me Abbott can be successful and he might have more Ks in his arsenal, due to his previous prospect pedigree. Weak contact is not everything, the top guy in the league was Kyle Hendricks, but Hendricks is a 86 MPH guy with a 6 K/9. Abbott is way more Logan Webb than Hendricks. 2026 Projections: 10-8/3.51/1.13/154 in 168 IP
52. Tatsuya Imai – Already gave you my Tatsuya Imai fantasy. It was written while yoinking. 2026 Projections: 11-8/3.74/1.27/160 in 171 IP
53. Shane Bieber – So, I shouldn’t oversell Bieber; there’s a caveat I will get to in a moment. He’s sitting on a career 3.24 ERA in 883 1/3 IP. If this were for a 38-year-old coming off a 4.50 ERA season, I’d be like, “Yeah, that’s dumb to mention,” but Bieber just had a 3.57 ERA with a 8.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 in 40 1/3 IP. That’s basically in line with his 2022 season of 2.88 ERA in 200 IP with a 8.9 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. After he returned from Tommy John, his velocity was back, and he’s more of a command guy anyway, so it doesn’t matter. What’s even better: A 1.6 BB/9 with a 31.7 O-Swing%. That would’ve been the 8th best chase rate. Chase rate for a guy who walks no one? Wait, this is even more incredible: He had a 49.6% Zone%. That’s very low. So, to recap, he gets people to chase, never throws pitches anyone can hit and hitters are so fooled they don’t even think of walking. This is absurdly good. The caveat: He gave me the O Face, but the bad O Face. This O Face is when you see a giant O next to his name on the NFBC site, and it indicates he has injury news. That injury news, “Dealing with forearm fatigue at the end of the season, which comes after having Tommy John surgery.” Eek, but at the right price, an eek worth trying. 2026 Projections: 7-7/3.51/1.04/137 in 144 IP
54. Zac Gallen – FREE AGENT 2026 Projections:
55. Jack Flaherty – As a Saberhagenmetrician will point out, Flaherty is excellent every other year and last year he was bad, so he’ll be good this year. Saberhagenmetrician point this out every other time you see them. They are consistent eeny-meanies. For reals though, he had a 10.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 4.64 ERA but a 3.69 xFIP. His previous season was 10.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 3.17 ERA with a 3.00 xFIP. So, clearly better in 2024, but that dramatically? (Pretty easy answer here, don’t screw it up.) Did you answer “the number 42?” This isn’t The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy! C’mon! 2026 Projections: 10-9/3.73/1.25/186 in 159 IP
56. Merrill Kelly – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the DBags. They traded him away midseason last year to the Rangers and Kelly, who had only played with the Bags his whole career prior, cried and cried when he was taken away from Arizona like when your mammy left you at sleepaway camp. It’s okay, puddin’, you’re back home. Kelly is one of those guys who is not flashy whatsoever. He’s so boring that the most interesting thing about him is his resemblance to Chris Elliott. Kelly is also exactly the type of guy I like for fantasy as a number four because he’s so dependable for solid ratios.” And that’s me quoting me! 2026 Projections: 9-10/3.61/1.13/171 in 187 IP
57. Sandy Alcantara – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until top 80 starters for 2026 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Broke and getting brokener or unbrokener but not on my teams.” This tier is one of the easiest for me to ignore. I don’t believe in drafting starters who are hurt. Also, when we get to March, and (insert pitcher’s name who was believed to be hurt) looks good, it doesn’t mean we suddenly flip the switch and start drafting them, because (insert pitcher’s name who was believed to be hurt) still has six months to get hurt. This tier doesn’t include only starters who are returning from injury. It also includes a guy like Sandy who just looks broke.
As for Alcantara, people getting back in on him after his previous season are legit crazy. Do not dare them to do anything stupid, because they will do it. They are scary nuts. I saw someone draft Sandy and asked them why and they said, “Watch this,” then drove a four-wheeler off a cliff. That’s what you’re up against. Avoid with all your strength! 2026 Projections: 10-10/4.23/1.24/149 in 178 IP
58. Carlos Rodon – Almost exact same situation as Eovaldi every year, in that he’s always underrated. This year’s big departure for Rodon? He had bone spurs removed from his elbow and his season debut won’t be happening until end of April/May. You know how I feel about team timetables. They lie like Joe lies, as in teams Say Anything. There’s a ton of starters to draft, I wouldn’t mess with Rodon. 2026 Projections: 12-6/3.62/1.13/148 in 144 IP
59. Shota Imanaga – His strikeout numbers took a major nosedive last year (from 9 to 7.3 K/9), and it looks like it’s mostly a case of his command is still excellent (1.6 BB/9) but he is just not getting swings and misses anymore. Nicest thing I can say is maybe he’s just not getting swings and misses but he is eliciting weak contact, but the nicest thing I can say might want to take it easy on being so nice because his HR/9 of 1.9 is incredibly worrisome if that’s the route you’re taking with his numbers or just being nice. Stop being nice, Grey! Shota’s a freakin’ mess! It could be true, and I think we let someone else take a chance. 2026 Projections: 10-8/3.81/1.07/138 in 162 IP
60. Zack Wheeler – He underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in September, and the typical recovery time is six to eight months. Not a high percentage of successful outcomes from this surgery. Maybe he could be fine. There’s a better chance that we get to March and the Phils are like, “Wheeler is due back by end of May,” then at the end of May, the Phils are like, “Wheeler feels great! He’s progressing well! No one’s ever progressed as well ever! He could be back by August.” Also, I need to address something: I am telling you to avoid Wheeler. If he’s available and every pitcher above him is taken, what do you do? Well, you start sucking on the Lollipop Guild’s front entrance doorknob and drink from the chocolate river, because you’re in Make Believe Land. You’re not in a league with 11 other me’s. Or 14 other me’s. Or 11 other me’s out of 15 or whatever. Wheeler is not available anywhere this late. 2026 Projections: 6-2/3.02/1.07/118 in 102 IP
