I can’t believe that it’s been over 11 years since “Looking Like A Fool With Your Pants On The Ground” happened. And yet, the goofy, quippy tune is ringing strong in my ear. My version is slightly different though. It goes, Votto too low, Votto too low, looking like a fool with Votto too low. After missing four games in the middle of July, Joey Votto has gone on a torrid stretch mashing 12 homers in 23 games while batting .325. I don’t feel that bad for not predicting an unreal power pace, but there were some indicators that pointed towards success. From the start of the season to July 11th, Votto posted a career-best 13.1% barrel rate along with a 48.8% hard-hit rate. Those numbers have since increased even higher, but not before making me look like a fool. Votto takes a big leap up this list and while we shouldn’t expect another 24 homers over the last 49 games, he’ll provide above-average power, a steady batting average, and decent counting stats down the stretch. Let’s take a look at the list and then we’ll talk about some of the movers.
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vlad Guerrero, Jr. | 1B | Blue Jays | – |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | 1B | Braves | – |
| 3 | Matt Olson | 1B | Athletics | – |
| 4 | Max Muncy | 1B/2B/3B | Dodgers | +1 |
| 5 | Jose Abreu | 1B | White Sox | +1 |
| 6 | Kris Bryant | 1B/3B/OF | Giants | +2 |
| 7 | Pete Alonso | 1B | Mets | -3 |
| 8 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | Cardinals | -1 |
| 9 | Joey Votto | 1B | Reds | +9 |
| 10 | DJ LeMahieu | 1B/2B/3B | Yankees | -1 |
| 11 | Ryan McMahon | 1B/2B/3B | Rockies | +2 |
| 12 | Josh Bell | 1B | Nationals | +5 |
| 13 | Luke Voit | 1B | Yankees | +8 |
| 14 | Eric Hosmer | 1B | Padres | – |
| 15 | Jared Walsh | 1B/OF | Angels | – |
| 16 | Jonathan Schoop | 1B/2B | Tigers | +8 |
| 17 | Andrew Vaughn | 1B/OF | White Sox | +2 |
| 18 | Cody Bellinger | 1B/OF | Dodgers | +4 |
| 19 | Jake Cronenworth | 1B/2B/SS | Padres | -3 |
| 20 | Anthony Rizzo | 1B | Yankees | -10 |
| 21 | C.J. Cron | 1B | Rockies | NR |
| 22 | Trey Mancini | 1B/OF | Orioles | -11 |
| 23 | Yuli Gurriel | 1B | Astros | -11 |
| 24 | Rhys Hoskins | 1B | Phillies | -4 |
| 25 | Brandon Belt | 1B | Giants | NR |
Pete Alonso takes a dip up top. Mid-August is not the time to start slumping, but that’s exactly what’s happened to the Mets’ slugger. Alonso has gone 2/28 to start August and the Mets have a pretty killer schedule over the next two weeks playing a combined 13 games against the Giants and the Dodgers. Alonso will have to right the ship on the fly if the Mets want to have a chance at a playoff spot.
I don’t think I’ve given Josh Bell enough love for his turnaround this year. Bell started off the year with an April to forget, batting .113. From May 1st on, he batted .275 with 17 homers, while striking out just 19.6% of the time. One of my biggest worries about Bell coming into the year was that the 26% strikeout rate that we saw in 2020 was the new version of himself. Bell should provide steady production down the stretch.
Most of the big movement of this list is due to injury. Anthony Rizzo hit the IL after testing positive for COVID and will miss at least 10 days. Yuli Gurriel landed on the IL with a neck injury, although he was taking grounders over the weekend. Rhys Hoskins to the IL with a groin strain. Ryan Mountcastle, who Steamer really likes, is in concussion protocol. If I had a timetable on Mountcastle, he’d easily make this list based on his projection alone. Steamer has him as a top 10 first baseman for the rest of the season.
There are also two that returned from the injured list who receive a decent bump up – Luke Voit and Jared Walsh. Both were two of my favorites before landing on the IL, so it made me happy to reinstate them to the heart of this list. Both sluggers will hit in the middle of their teams’ respective order and will be very productive while healthy.
I mentioned last week how I had a blind spot for the productivity that Jonathan Schoop was bringing to Detroit. Well, I took the blinders off when Steamer showed Schoop to be projected as the 15th best first baseman for the rest of the season. I still think that Tigers lineup holds his counting numbers back some, but you can not deny the productivity that Schoop has brought to the table.
Wait, do you see that? The capsized S.S. Bellinger is drifting into port and what’s that – a deck party?? Just when I cast him afloat, Cody Bellinger reminds me why I held on so long, hitting homers in back-to-back games over the weekend. Steamer also likes the Belli-man as the 10th best first baseman for their rest of season rankings. Who am I to argue with that?
Finally, I included Brandon Belt at the bottom of this list. When healthy, Belt has produced pretty nicely, mashing 15 homers while batting north of .260. The Giants’ slugger returned to a beefed-up lineup and while he’ll likely only have the strong side of the platoon, Belt could be a really sneaky pickup to help your team while he’s healthy. Diving in some, Belt has continued his barrel rate success from 2020 as he would once again sit in the top 4% of the league if he had enough plate appearances.
