Today’s journey through the recaps take us to the 1st basemen. They’re better than the top 20 catchers for 2023 fantasy baseball (not clickbait at all), but by how much? How do I explain that? I have an idea! By recapping them! To recap my recap before the recap, this final ranking is from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater with my comments. This is not for next year. Hayzeus Cristo, just enjoy a recap before we get into next year. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2023 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Matt Olson – So many things to say about Olson, but one thing that I think doesn’t get mentioned enough: He’s played 162 games each of the last two years. The .280+ average feels slight high for him, and the counting stats, while somewhat contingent on the lineup around him, feel a little absurd, but the 50+ homers is absolutely his wheelhouse. He’s Jimmie Foxx today; he’s Harmon Killebrew; he’s going to hit 500 homers (with prolly a career .250 average and 15 career steals), but whatever, Mr. Parenthetical. He’s rock solid! Preseason Rank #5, 2023 Projections: 92/37/111/.246/1 in 587 ABs, Final Numbers: 127/54/139/.283/1 in 608 ABs
2. Freddie Freeman – He played in 161 games, in case you were wondering. Also, another guy headed for the Hall of Fame. That’s me assuming Olson gets to 500 homers, and Freeman gets to 3,000 hits, though the latter might not be necessary for him, even though it seems to be a foregone conclusion. Freeman’s ability to stay on the field and be productive is kind of a miracle. He looks like he has negative-one-steal speed, when you few him and his chompers, but just keeps going out there and taking bags, more and more each year. Preseason Rank #2, 2023 Projections: 106/25/91/.309/10 in 591 ABs, Final Numbers: 131/29/102/.331/23 in 637 ABs
3. Cody Bellinger – Thought about how I could’ve predicted Bellinger’s bounce back for longer than I care to admit (70 seconds), and I don’t know. I guess at the price, it was worth the flyer, just guessing he’d be okay, eventually, but if you say you predicted Cody Bouncebackinger, I’d call you a liar. There was no way of knowing, from what I’ve deciphered from under a minute and half of retrospection. Preseason Unranked for 1B, 2023 Projections: 66/21/73/.228/15 in 481 ABs, Final Numbers: 95/26/97/.307/20 in 499 ABs
4. Pete Alonso – As unlucky as the Mets were (or always are), Alonso had to lead the team in unluckiness. A career low .205 BABIP makes no sense. His BABIP was the 2nd lowest since 2000 for any full-time player (Aaron Hill in 2010 was lowest), and is a .250 neutral hitter. If you’re thinking Alonso’s next year’s Cody Bouncebackinger, you’re not the only one. All Alonso (Allonso?) needs to do is hit .250+, and, with his 50-homer power, he could be next year’s Olson. Preseason Rank #3, 2023 Projections: 92/40/111/.263/3 in 581 ABs, Final Numbers: 92/46/118/.217/4 in 568 ABs
5. Christian Walker – If I sat here and told you I fully expected Walker to follow-up his breakout with another great year, I’d be lying and I’m not even sitting. (I have a standing desk like a giant dork.) Preseason Rank #8, 2023 Projections: 79/33/87/.240/2 in 564 ABs, Final Numbers: 86/33/103/.258/11 in 582 ABs
6. Yandy Diaz – Two batting champions in this top 20 1st basemen. I couldn’t have been more wrong on Yandy. Think everyone was wrong on him, but only saying that to make myself feel better. He started hitting homers and didn’t change his Launch Angle at all. So, what accounts for that? Well, he has biceps like grapefruits and he might’ve been a bit lucky with those homers. He did cut his walks, too, so maybe he just became more aggressive. Next year will be a very telling season for him: Will he be a 20+ homer guy or revert to 12 homers? One thing that is clear, he does hit for a good average. Preseason Rank #32, 2023 Projections: 52/10/58/.285 in 459 ABs, Final Numbers: 95/22/78/.330 in 525 ABs
7. Justin Turner – This is a tier down from the previous guys. In fact, it was Olson/Freeman in one tier, then the next three, then Turner through Vlad Jr., then Spencer thru Bohm, then the rest. As for Turner, not to justify myself, like I’m Madonna writing a term paper, but if I thought he could get 560 ABs, I’d be pretty close on his projections. Not surprised much by him doing well in Fenway, it’s a great park for him. More surprised I wasn’t smart enough to draft him. “Trust yourself, boo!” That’s a ghost talking to me. Preseason Unranked for 1B, 2023 Projections: 69/15/79/.274 in 481 ABs, Final Numbers: 86/23/96/.276/4 in 558 ABs
8. Paul Goldschmidt – I’ve made the mistake before of looking at Au Shizz and thinking this was the beginning of the end, but what is stopping me from making the same mistakes again and again? So, with that said, this looks like the beginning of the end. Preseason Rank #4, 2023 Projections: 94/29/105/.291/7 in 554 ABs, Final Numbers: 89/25/80/.268/11 in 593 ABs
9. Spencer Steer – There should be a Steer Stat. The Steer Stat, named for Steer, is how many more steals 2023 rule changes gave a player. It’s the Steer Stat, because he looked like a two-steal guy prior to 2023. Now he’s a 15-steal guy. 13 is the Steer Stat. One thing you can never sell short is how much Great American Smallpark adds to the power of a guy. Incredibly, I think Steer actually might’ve been light on power and average last year, i.e., I expect more. Preseason Rank #41, 2023 Projections: 56/19/61/.223/2 in 466 ABs, Final Numbers: 74/23/86/.271/15 in 582 ABs
10. Anthony Santander – Unranked for 1st basemen, but I wrote an Anthony Santander sleeper, and I will bask in its gloriousness! I also wrote Seth Brown, Jose Miranda and Rowdy Tellez sleepers for 1st basemen, so we won’t bask too long. Preseason Unranked for 1B, 2023 Projections: 77/35/92/.244/1 in 563 ABs, Final Numbers: 81/28/95/.257/5 in 591 ABs
11. Bryce Harper – On one hand, I missed on Harper completely. On the other hand, I missed because I didn’t think he’d return until about six weeks after when he did. On a third hand that is actually a mitten on a mop’s handle, he shouldn’t have came back until the All-Star Break, because he didn’t look good for the first six weeks he was back. Preseason Unranked for 1B, 2023 Projections: 47/16/54/.277/7 in 273 ABs, Final Numbers: 84/21/72/.293/11 in 457 ABs
12. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – The deceiving thing about Cake Batter: He was terrible on a per game basis. Brandon Drury, who didn’t even make the top 20 (was 25th overall), was better per game, and no one confused Drury with anything great. Cake was truly boosted by 600+ at-bats, and nothing else. Hard to imagine a full year from him being worse than this, but I’m now struggling to picture a much better one. Recency bias is poison. Preseason Rank #1, 2023 Projections: 96/33/107/.283/8 in 589 ABs, Final Numbers: 78/26/94/.264/5 in 602 ABs
13. Spencer Torkelson – This year we had a Star Mitzvah for Torkelson. Okay, if not a star, we at least had a Productive Mitzvah. One thing to notice with all the positional recaps, is they all had a chance to be productive if they gave you a lot of at-bats. Preseason Rank #40, 2023 Projections: 64/22/63/.217/1 in 486 ABs, Final Numbers: 88/31/94/.233/3 in 606 ABs
14. Luis Arraez – “I can’t believe you defrosted my head for the 14th ranked 1st baseman.” That’s Ted Williams’ once-frozen head. He added, “And microwave my eyeballs separate from my ears, you idiots!” Preseason Rank #24, 2023 Projections: 93/7/53/.312/5 in 557 ABs, Final Numbers: 71/10/69/.354/3 in 574 ABs
15. Isaac Paredes – He got 492 ABs on the Rays! That’s like 700 ABs on the Tigers. The Rays are such a crapshoot after Yandy and Arozarena. Kevin Cash could give anyone else in their lineup 500 ABs or 300. Whether that player is hot or cold! Preseason Rank #38, 2023 Projections: 41/18/46/.241 in 309 ABs, Final Numbers: 71/31/98/.250/1 in 492 ABs
16. Josh Naylor – Making this about this year, but Naylor is an obvious sleeper for next year. If he would’ve played in 150+ games, he would’ve ended up around Au Shizz, and maybe as high as Bellinger. He hits .290 without luck, he hits 25 homers, easily if he gets the at-bats and he was on pace for 130 RBIs. Sign me up everywhere! He is one of the few 1st baseman that Mr. Prorater can do anything with. Preseason Rank #27, 2023 Projections: 56/18/64/.259/2 in 434 ABs, Final Numbers: 52/17/97/.308/10 in 452 ABs
17. Alec Bohm – So, we have an almost exact ding-dong on Bohm for my preseason and end-of-season ranking, and not like a normal ding-dong but like a ding-dong on Glow Up, so what does that mean for my projections? Meh, pretty close. I think I was more or less in line with what a 17th or 18th best 1st baseman would do. Runs and RBIs are hard to figure, but power and speed are easier, and I was pretty right on. Ow! I was holding a knife while patting myself on the back. Et tu, Grey? Preseason Rank #18, 2023 Projections: 81/18/75/.286/6 in 591 ABs, Final Numbers: 74/20/97/.274/4 in 558 ABs
18. Carlos Santana – Not to pick on Cake Batter but Oye Como Yay was really that much worse than him? For the 50 ABs that Santana missed, you could fill in for him in most shallower leagues, and he was free off waivers in almost all leagues. Whereas Vlad Jr. required a top ten pick, and just yawnstipated. Preseason Rank #63, 2023 Projections: 53/15/58/.212 in 422 ABs, Final Numbers: 78/23/86/.240/6 in 550 ABs
19. Nolan Jones – Boy, this guy stinks! Just an absolute bum! I hate him so much! Meh on top of meh! (Is it working at all to get people to not want to draft him next year?) Just a total loser! Won’t ever play for Bud Black either! Oh, crap, I just jinxed him! Nooooooo! (On a side note, if Nolan Jones had 500+ ABs, he would been a top three 1st baseman with a 30/30 year. Zoinks!) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 60/20/62/.297/20 in 367 ABs
20. Nathaniel Lowe – Ended up being Cake Batter with more boring-ass at-bats. The Lowe man, indeed. Preseason Rank #6, 2023 Projections: 86/26/94/.277/5 in 579 ABs, Final Numbers: 89/17/82/.262/1 in 623 ABs
