It’s gonna be May! [insert Justin Trousersnake GIF]. I wish writing this stuff was as easy as being in a boy band. If only I had been born with small pores and the ability to dance! Instead, I got this weird gene that keeps my feet locked on the floor, which also ruined any potential careers in basketball, rock climbing, or being a high wire trapeze artist. Apparently, I got the gene for spotting semi-useful fantasy pitchers as well. Thanks, mom! That’s my recognition of Mother’s Day — Mom, you were the one who gifted me this ability to stare at numbers and make sense of them. In another life, I could be that guy in the Matrix who stares at code all day and sees “blonde, redhead…” and so on. But in this life, I’m 20 years beyond the production of Garden State and still wondering how people in the aughts thought The Shins were going to change music forever. Good job Hollywood! ENYWHEY. Let’s see what I can do for your fantasy teams this week!

News and Notes

Tyler MahleJKJ asked in writer’s chat if Mahle was toast, and to my surprise, the other writers said, “Yes.” Am I so out of touch? No, it’s the kids who are out of touch. [makes steamed hams] Through his first 5 starts and that 7+ ERA, Mahle has faced 120 batters and was responsible for 20 of them crossing home plate. Yeesh. But wait — is that shrine to Gamblor, the God of Variance I see you worshipping at? Within that embarrassing 20 ER mark? Mahle had allowed only 1 home run and 3 barrels. 120 batters. 3 barrels. That’s insane. Let’s frame this another way: Mahle is the second-best pitcher in MLB 2022 at preventing barrels in the cohort of pitchers with similar batted ball events (80+). OK, the BB/9 near 5 ain’t stellar. But we’re talking about a 7+ ERA pitcher who has a sub-4.00 xERA and FIP and is invoking weak contact at a career-best rate. The Reds are a disaster and even Charlie Sheen could only must a 3-win season there this year, but Mahle’s not the reason for the poor performance. If anything, he’s a pitcher you’ll want to target in DFS and do your best to hold until regression hits and he’s back to the SP3 you were expecting.

Robbie RayAfter JKJ got the Mahle thing going, Coolwhip was worried about Robbie Ray. Aren’t we all? I put on my Robbie Ray compression pants whenever I feel nervous. Wearing them feels like a hug from grandpa. Also, don’t ask me about my grandpa. ENYWHEY. Robbie Ray hasn’t allowed a barrel in his last three games, but the overall stat line is yawnstipating — 2 wins, 7.5 K/9, 4.38 ERA. He’s still going with the two-pitch approach in 2022 (OK, 2% curveball usage, sue me), but his fastball is down 2MPH compared to last year. Bingo — problem found! Could Ray still be warming up after the short off-season? Did he change tailors? Whatever. It’s not uncommon for pitchers to start slow and then let loose when it’s warmer. We’ve seen Ray’s fastball already speed up nearly 1.5MPH since his season debut (91.5–>92.9/93.7 in his last two games), so better times are coming.

Alek ManoahLet’s do that thing where we put stats from mystery players next to each other:

Name Player Rater Barrels/% CSW% FIP ERA
Player A SP1 3/3.9% 27.3% 3.16 1.45
Player B SP183 3/3.8% 27.2% 3.21 7.01

Come on, did you even read the start of the article? Player A is Alek Manoah and Player B is Tyler Mahle. So, this comparison table? This is why I hate fantasy sports. Analytically-minded players instantly recognize that Mahle is playing just as well as Alek Manoah, but Manoah’s variance in the “good” direction for fantasy creates wins for fantasy mavens. Manoah’s 4 wins — which puts him on pace for 24 wins on the season — is tied for the league lead. Mahle’s variance in the “bad” direction for fantasy has probably torched a couple of fantasy teams already. Manoah has more wins…than the entire Reds team (he said at the time of writing). Regression usually happens, which means that both Manoah and Mahle are heading towards the same ERA. So, is Manoah more like Mahle, or is Mahle more like Manoah? We’ll find out soon! That’s why we watch the game! What’s more, regression tends to happen very quickly. For Manoah, we’ll probably see his “negative” regression in the form of a win drought; if that regression doesn’t come, his early stat line looks remarkably on track to be a 2022 version of 2021 Julio Urias; Urias ended as SP3 on the year. Even so, if Manoah normalizes towards his projections, he’s got top 20 SP potential for the rest of the season. His elite control in 2022 is a great step forward, and the early-season returns look like a great dynasty league investment.

Shane BieberSome days you’ve got it, some days you don’t. Before Saturday, he had a 2.45 ERA and 3.01 FIP. Then came 7 earnies and 3 walks in 3 innings with no strikeouts. Can’t even say that he got unlucky (cue Un-Pharrell and Un-Daft Punk). These things happen <— things my mom said to me every time my friends abandoned me at the park. I’m not worried about Bieber comma Shane. Now Justin? That guy scares me.

George KirbyGeorges Kirbé — top pitching prospect alert! Remember how good Spencer Howard, Nate Pearson, MacKenzie Gore, Triston McKenzie (must be a McKenzie thing…), Casey Mize, and Matt Manning were last year? We all love some prospects but the truth is, sometimes they need a bit more playing time than their rookie year before they’re useful for fantasy. Last year’s top rookie pitcher — Trevor Rogers — was the #90 overall consensus prospect. The second-best overall rookie pitcher was none other than the unheralded Luis Garcia, who had never played above High-A ball. In terms of WAR, the best “premier prospect” rookie pitcher in 2021 was Logan Gilbert, who finished 6-5 with a 4.68 ERA. Fantasy stud! I’m not saying Kirby won’t be good or won’t be useful for fantasy in 2022. What I am saying, is that prospect pitchers are very risky. If you remember back to my pre-season post about timing, you’ll remember that Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Zack Greinke were all pitchers that needed several years before they topped the MLB and fantasy charts (Scherzer and deGrom were older than 30 before leading the league in Ks, and Greinke had nearly 5 years as a starter before leading the league in ERA). My best wishes to Monsieur Kirbé for a delicious 2022. For you fantasy managers wishing to roster Kirby — you do you.

Framber ValdezThe Frambimal…wait, that doesn’t sound right. Frambdextrous…that sounds like a Dr. Strange villain. FV…how FanGraphs! Whatever. Valdez has a 7.2 K/9 and a 4.2 BB/9 on the year. This is not a recipe for success. On the plus side, his last outing finished with 7K and only 1BB…against the Detroit Tigers. Sigh. The Big FV is worth fantasy attention, but that K/BB ratio has very few comps for enduring success. Hopefully, he can face the Tigers a few more times and figure out his control issues.

Kyle Hendricks1-3, K/9 under 7, and an ERA and FIP above 5. I’m gonna keep harping on this all year. You think I forget what the big sites are trying to do to you? I’m like Pepperidge Farm: overpriced and usually dry. Wait. I never forget. That too.

Miles MikolasWe’re [and I write this like we’re a community, sharing coffee and thinking about pitchers] a few years out from Mikolas being fantasy relevant. You know what an agent can do for you? $17M a year when you’ve got basically 1 year on your resume of above-average MLB experience. You know Shane Bieber’s making $6 million this year, right? Miles Mikolas has made nearly $40 million to pitch 60IP while all Bieber did was go and win the Cy Young. What a world! Now as you go out into that work world this Monday, ask yourself: am I Miles Mikolas, or Shane Bieber? ENYWHEY. Mikolas is suddenly fantasy relevant again because he’s doing that Zack Greinke thing where they rack up innings with meh K-rates and low walk rates. Mikolas’ true skill stats are nearly 2 points higher than his ERA, which indicates that Mikolas is due for major regression soon. And all those fantasy managers who are strutting through social media with Alek Manoah and Miles Mikolas saying that they’re in first place now? Watch what happens in another month. Hey Siri, remind me in a month to make fun of Kyle Hendricks.

Mitch KellerI don’t really like Keller, but he’s leading the league in ERA-FIP discrepancy by a fair amount. His true skill stats are at a tolerable 4-ish level. He’s a deep league add if you’re looking for a starter. Acquire in 12+ team leagues.

Zack Greinke / Josiah GraySame as above but in the opposite (bad) direction — these are the pitchers who lead the league in FIP-ERA discrepancy (along with the other true skill stats), meaning they’re in for a tough time coming up. Now’s the time to trade these guys.

Add these guys: As of Sunday, my system says these guys are under-owned in RCLs: Tyler Anderson, Brock Burke, Jalen Beeks, Jakob Junis (back in MLB and started on Sunday), Blake Treinen

The Rankings

For those of you who are visually inclined, here’s a graph of the top pitchers. It says the same thing as my chart, except it’s organized horizontally instead of vertically. I’m a creative genius!

Always do a sanity check. I’m providing free data that quite literally has a better or higher correlation to fantasy efficacy than many sites that charge an arm and a leg and don’t answer your questions. That said, I’m human and make mistakes; I also submit the article on Sunday so there’s a bit of lag. The source of this data is none other than Razzball itself. So, if you are winning money or having a great time reading the articles, please consider a subscription to the site or drop me a line in the comments and let me know I’m not wasting my life away for naught.

Here’s how to use the list:

  • Tier: 1=best, 2=everybody else for 12 team consideration, 3=deep league/dynasty/best ball/tournaments/DFS.
  • Name: Player name
  • Confidence: The overall score my system outputs. The higher the score, the more confident I am in using the player in the near term. As always, we’re in small sample size territory, so this ranking will get better as the season goes on.
  • Own%: This is the rostership % of the player in Razzball Commenter Leagues, run on Fantrax. This % may vary depending on site and format for readers.
  • L30$/G: This is how valuable the player has been over the past month. Players with high confidence who have low or negative $/G are “buy low” candidates.  Spot starters/Roleless Robs will have a lower $/G because they play in more games.
Tier Name Confidence Own% L30$/G
1 Carlos Rodon 3.961 100 40.2
1 Dylan Cease 3.846 100 21.3
1 Michael King 3.819 11.7
1 Shohei Ohtani 3.699 100 19.3
1 Garrett Whitlock 3.633 100 8.2
1 Max Scherzer 3.589 100 41.1
1 Shane McClanahan 3.583 100 9.6
1 Corbin Burnes 3.536 100 24.8
1 Eric Lauer 3.528 100 34.8
1 Brandon Woodruff 3.444 100 -8
1 Nestor Cortes 3.381 100 8.6
1 Jesus Luzardo 3.304 100 6.3
1 Kevin Gausman 3.299 100 23.1
1 Freddy Peralta 3.231 100 -26.4
1 Lucas Giolito 3.100 100 1.4
1 Kyle Wright 2.970 100 30.6
1 Tylor Megill 2.947 100 24.4
1 Clayton Kershaw 2.943 100 44
1 Joe Musgrove 2.928 100 36.4
1 Tarik Skubal 2.867 100 -7.3
1 Max Fried 2.848 100 25.5
2 Triston McKenzie 2.769 100 1.2
2 Paul Blackburn 2.768 77 16.4
2 Pablo Lopez 2.756 100 35.1
2 Merrill Kelly 2.731 100 22.9
2 Frankie Montas 2.708 100 4.4
2 Carlos Carrasco 2.691 100 6.4
2 Aaron Nola 2.657 100 3.6
2 Chris Bassitt 2.647 100 22.6
2 Sean Manaea 2.638 100 -6
2 Chris Paddack 2.621 80 -10.3
2 Ryan Helsley 2.602 100 8.7
2 Tyler Mahle 2.594 91 -46.9
2 A.J. Minter 2.589 -3.3
2 Kenley Jansen 2.579 100 1.8
2 Patrick Corbin 2.573 11 -68.5
2 Zac Gallen 2.564 100 20.5
2 Drew Rasmussen 2.563 100 7
2 Sam Hentges 2.528 2 -0.8
2 Patrick Sandoval 2.527 100 6.7
2 Zack Wheeler 2.527 100 -22.9
2 Logan Webb 2.520 100 -12.3
2 Justin Verlander 2.516 100 37.9
2 Alek Manoah 2.510 100 42.9
2 Bruce Zimmermann 2.498 -0.9
2 Joe Ryan 2.493 100 30.8
2 Chasen Shreve 2.492 2 -0.3
2 Corey Kluber 2.475 80 -0.6
2 Shane Bieber 2.464 100 -23.9
2 Eduardo Rodriguez 2.454 93 -28.6
2 Wil Crowe 2.452 23 -1.5
2 Justin Wilson 2.446 -4
2 Logan Gilbert 2.441 100 24
2 Steven Matz 2.436 57 -37.5
2 Yu Darvish 2.419 100 -6.3
2 Jordan Montgomery 2.412 100 -14.1
2 Tyler Anderson 2.405 41 12.3
2 Cristian Javier 2.402 100 16.9
2 Michael Kopech 2.402 100 -2
2 Brooks Raley 2.401 23 -1.1
2 JT Brubaker 2.393 7 -42
2 Zach Eflin 2.389 9 -36.1
2 Trevor Gott 2.386 -0.2
2 Josh Winder 2.384 18.1
2 Spencer Strider 2.383 0.7
2 Evan Phillips 2.380 -0.9
2 Martin Perez 2.374 -10.8
2 Jovani Moran 2.371 4.8
2 Brock Burke 2.365 5 5.8
2 Victor Arano 2.362 -8.1
2 Miles Mikolas 2.358 100 11.3
2 Austin Gomber 2.349 7 -9
2 MacKenzie Gore 2.346 100 11.1
2 Erik Swanson 2.338 -1.4
2 David Bednar 2.338 100 2
2 Adrian Houser 2.333 18 -4.9
2 Walker Buehler 2.325 100 14.4
2 Dane Dunning 2.310 2 -19.7
2 Scott Effross 2.310 -4
2 Tanner Houck 2.296 55 -25.1
2 Luis Garcia 2.294 100 7.5
2 Luis Garcia 2.294 100 7.5
2 Josh Hader 2.291 100 7.3
2 Adam Wainwright 2.282 98 -7.6
2 Mitch Keller 2.280 5 -54.4
2 Andrew Heaney 2.277 89 49.8
2 Alex Wood 2.275 100 -15.7
2 Ross Stripling 2.268 -33
2 Gerrit Cole 2.267 100 -1.1
2 Mauricio Llovera 2.264 -4
2 Alex Cobb 2.249 86 -25.4
2 Kyle Nelson 2.244 -3.3
2 Seranthony Dominguez 2.239 2 -4.9
2 Parker Mushinski 2.236 -8.3
2 Nick Pivetta 2.231 5 -51.5
2 Trevor Stephan 2.231 5 0.1
2 Dylan Bundy 2.228 36 -22.6
2 Daniel Hudson 2.226 7 0.8
2 Jameson Taillon 2.223 73 -11.8
2 Jose Alvarado 2.222 -6.6
2 Jason Adam 2.222 -2.9
2 Raisel Iglesias 2.213 100 2.6
2 Chad Kuhl 2.210 59 25.5
2 Daniel Bard 2.208 100 6.2
2 Marcus Stroman 2.207 89 -29.7
2 Framber Valdez 2.206 100 -22.6
2 Sergio Romo 2.201 -0.5
2 Julian Merryweather 2.200 -9.8
2 Kyle Gibson 2.193 89 1.8
2 Alex Vesia 2.192 -2.3
2 JT Chargois 2.187 0.7
2 Luis Severino 2.186 100 -13.4
2 Robbie Ray 2.176 100 -21.3
2 Jeffrey Springs 2.174 2 1.5
2 Collin McHugh 2.174 2 -10.4
2 Keegan Thompson 2.173 9 9
2 Kyle Freeland 2.173 2 -29.3
2 Sam Selman 2.166 12.6
2 A.J. Puk 2.151 -1.4
2 Humberto Castellanos 2.146 -20.2
2 Nathan Eovaldi 2.142 100 -3.9
2 Kendall Graveman 2.141 11 -5.5
2 Rafael Montero 2.136 75 0.9
2 Taylor Hearn 2.135 -49.8
2 Alex Lange 2.133 -3.3
2 Paul Sewald 2.122 52 -4.2
2 Brad Keller 2.122 39 9.1
2 Joan Adon 2.116 -57.9
2 Jalen Beeks 2.107 2 6.4
2 Jose Quintana 2.103 -26.3
2 Noah Syndergaard 2.101 100 6.5
2 Sandy Alcantara 2.097 100 -11.9
2 Drew Smith 2.095 2 -1.5
2 Jorge Lopez 2.093 100 4.8
2 Penn Murfee 2.087 6.8
2 Josiah Gray 2.087 98 -0.1
2 Devin Williams 2.078 70 -4.4
2 Erick Fedde 2.078 -26.8
2 Taylor Rogers 2.077 100 6.8
2 Andrew Chafin 2.077 -5.6
2 Tim Mayza 2.077 -1.9
2 David Robertson 2.076 100 3.4
2 Jimmy Herget 2.070 -9.3
2 Cody Stashak 2.066 2.5
2 Aaron Civale 2.066 34 -65.3
2 Pierce Johnson 2.066 9 -8.7
2 Griffin Jax 2.064 4.2
2 Reid Detmers 2.063 9 -28
2 Sean Doolittle 2.059 -1.1
2 Hector Neris 2.053 25 -1.5
2 Tanner Scott 2.051 2 -5.7
2 Aaron Ashby 2.050 66 -23.8
2 Dillon Tate 2.043 -3.9
2 Adam Ottavino 2.043 -8
2 Edwin Diaz 2.042 100 3.5
2 Zach Jackson 2.042 -8.3
2 Robert Dugger 2.031 -20.2
2 Julio Urias 2.024 100 10.2
2 David Peterson 2.022 2 -1.6
2 Liam Hendriks 2.019 100 -1.2
2 Clay Holmes 2.017 57 1.2
2 John Brebbia 2.015 -3.7
2 Andrew Kittredge 2.013 100 6.2
2 Duane Underwood Jr. 2.013 -20.4
2 Trevor Rogers 2.011 100 -45.2
2 German Marquez 2.008 68 -71
2 Anthony Bass 2.007 -3.7
2 Tony Gonsolin 2.001 100 4.8
3 Bailey Ober 1.998 86 -10.8
3 Bryan Abreu 1.997 -5.7
3 Rich Hill 1.996 2 -18.8
3 Phillips Valdez 1.995 -9
3 Justin Steele 1.991 -47.7
3 Bryan Baker 1.988 -7.2
3 Corbin Martin 1.981 -12.1
3 Chris Stratton 1.975 23 -7.1
3 Jordan Romano 1.971 100 4
3 Camilo Doval 1.966 100 -3.3
3 Brad Boxberger 1.965 -1.5
3 Michael Wacha 1.964 80 21.6
3 Vince Velasquez 1.957 -17.1
3 Zach Davies 1.955 -19.3
3 Jhoan Duran 1.952 91 -1.7
3 J.P. Feyereisen 1.949 9 4.9
3 Michael Lorenzen 1.944 57 -8.5
3 Charlie Morton 1.940 98 -59.8
3 Daulton Jefferies 1.939 5 -34.9
3 Cal Quantrill 1.939 36 -22.6
3 Daniel Lynch 1.935 30 -4.8
3 Josh Fleming 1.935 2 -45.2
3 Lucas Luetge 1.932 -6.4
3 Jakob Junis 1.915 11 36
3 Aaron Loup 1.909 2 -1.7
3 Bryse Wilson 1.907 -29.2
3 Andres Munoz 1.904 41 -4.9
3 Corey Knebel 1.903 100 -4.2
3 Luis Cessa 1.902 -6.7
3 Emmanuel Clase 1.900 100 -3.3
3 Jose Ruiz 1.885 -6.4
3 Jesse Chavez 1.883 -9.4
3 Zack Greinke 1.876 41 -19.2
3 Eli Morgan 1.875 -12.8
3 Matt Strahm 1.873 2 -4
3 Chris Flexen 1.872 18 -16.4
3 Steven Okert 1.869 0.3
3 Tony Santillan 1.867 -9.5
3 Josh Staumont 1.852 48 -7.2
3 Jeff Hoffman 1.845 -5.3
3 Andrew Bellatti 1.845 -3.6
3 Jake Odorizzi 1.844 14 -24.1
3 Tyler Wells 1.840 -32.6
3 Elieser Hernandez 1.836 23 -40.1
3 Mychal Givens 1.836 25 -5.6
3 Will Vest 1.833 -1.3
3 Jose Urquidy 1.829 -27
3 Enyel De Los Santos 1.825 -7.9
3 Adonis Medina 1.823 20.5
3 Tyler Kinley 1.819 -5.9
3 Tyler Thornburg 1.817 -6.3
3 Jhon Romero 1.810 -8.3
3 Steve Cishek 1.809 -9.9
3 Collin Snider 1.806 -3.1
3 Chris Martin 1.802 -5.3
3 Dusten Knight 1.802 -13.3
3 Kyle Hendricks 1.800 70 -47
3 Ryan Brasier 1.799 -7.3
3 Tanner Rainey 1.795 100 0.2
3 Tommy Kahnle 1.793 -1.5
3 Kyle Barraclough 1.793 4.7
3 Taylor Clarke 1.791 -2.7
3 Joely Rodriguez 1.791 -7.7
3 Yimi Garcia 1.788 -8.5
3 Roansy Contreras 1.779 5 -2.4
3 Tyler Rogers 1.778 -6.5
3 Matt Brash 1.778 7 -27.7
3 Glenn Otto 1.776 7.4
3 Dany Jimenez 1.776 2.5
3 Anderson Severino 1.772 -11.5
3 Giovanny Gallegos 1.768 100 -4
3 Rowan Wick 1.767 9 -2.2
3 Carlos Hernandez 1.766 7 -71
3 Dillon Peters 1.754 11.9
3 Konnor Pilkington 1.753 2
3 Keegan Akin 1.749 -14.4
3 Gabe Speier 1.746 0.3
3 Alexis Diaz 1.739 2 -3.2
3 Cole Irvin 1.729 11 -6.5
3 Robert Suarez 1.727 2 -5
3 Jose Berrios 1.725 100 -42.6
3 Steven Wilson 1.723 0.3
3 Hunter Harvey 1.722 -3.6
3 Felix Bautista 1.714 -6.5
3 Anthony Gose 1.712 -5.6
3 Blake Treinen 1.701 20 5.5
3 Jordan Lyles 1.701 9 -33.8
3 Nick Lodolo 1.700 73 -31.4
3 Zach Plesac 1.697 39 -37.4
3 Matt Foster 1.692 -3.7
3 Joe Jimenez 1.690 -6.9
3 Jose Álvarez 1.689 -5.6
3 Matt Wisler 1.688 -3.4
3 Dakota Hudson 1.687 14 -9.5
3 Wily Peralta 1.685 -17
3 Joe Barlow 1.673 100 2.6
3 Justin Lawrence 1.671 -5.3
3 Darren O’Day 1.668 -2.2
3 Jake Cousins 1.667 -6.1
3 Mitch White 1.665 -8
3 Dominic Leone 1.664 -4.3
3 Vladimir Gutierrez 1.660 -89.7
3 Anthony Kay 1.655 -29.7
3 Adam Cimber 1.652 16 2.8
3 Anthony DeSclafani 1.650 75 -61.6
3 Kodi Whitley 1.644 -3.3
3 Austin Voth 1.643 -10.4
3 Justin Grimm 1.642 -11.7
3 Chris Archer 1.640 2 -25.3
3 Reynaldo Lopez 1.639 2 1.2
3 Jackson Kowar 1.639 -168.2
3 David Phelps 1.637 -7.8
3 Brad Hand 1.634 7 -4.7
3 Tanner Banks 1.633 -1.8
3 Cody Poteet 1.632 -2.6
3 Ian Anderson 1.629 100 -13.9
3 Zach Pop 1.629 -27.7
3 Aroldis Chapman 1.628 100 0.3
3 Jon Gray 1.628 39 -50
3 Archie Bradley 1.627 -9.8
3 Caleb Thielbar 1.626 -11.3
3 Jordan Hicks 1.626 16 -18
3 Aaron Bummer 1.621 5 -9.3
3 Brian Moran 1.620 -41.8
3 Jose Quijada 1.613 -8
3 Rony Garcia 1.612 -5.8
3 Phoenix Sanders 1.605 -2.9
3 Reyes Moronta 1.602 -6
3 Paolo Espino 1.598 -25.6
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Dude
Dude
1 month ago

You picking up Bradish? I know it’s a small sample.

LenFuego
LenFuego
1 month ago

What does it mean for a guy like Ranger Suarez not to even be on the list? Is that an oversight or is he beyond Paolo Espino at the bottom?

LenFuego
LenFuego
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

I was hoping mabye he had figured himself out with yesterday’s start.

T T
T T
1 month ago

I used your system to build an average pitching staff last year for cheap. I invested heavy on hitting and my pitching was an even bigger disaster than planned to start the year. By end of the year the average pitching was plenty to pair with my elite hitting to give me the best team in the league.

I’ve done the much of the same this year, though much of it was through using lessons I’ve learned here in the draft than your rankings. I basically wait on bated breath for your rankings on Monday because your system points out who I’m missing or who I’m behind on needing to dump. It’s especially helpful when it comes to disparities between perceived value gained and what they’ve actually done. If anything it’s probably best at telling me when to move people that should be moved.

I wanna add I’ve always been amused by the people confusing your system as a direct ranking system. You’d think it’d be common sense that you shouldn’t trade Wheeler for Michael King or whatnot just because he’s higher ranked here and that your system is just another tool to see how ppl are actually pitching with projection in mind. From how many times people questioned Andrew Heaney’s rankings last year that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Brian
Brian
1 month ago

First off thank you so much for all of your hard work and everything you do. I felt so lucky when I came across this site looking for a random question. I saw your ranking of Whitlock and got super excited and offered Alcantara for him. Now I’m a little nervous it was the right move. Any feedback would be very helpful. I should’ve asked for Peralta maybe so I wouldn’t be second guessing myself. But I’d love to hear why you’re so big on Whitlock, I guess just to put my nerves at ease haha. Thank you again.

Jolt In Flow
Jolt In Flow
1 month ago

<> Well done, EWB, well done!

Great material as always. Ecstatic to see Skubal sneaking into Tier 1.

All the best!

Jolt

David Lee
David Lee
1 month ago

how is patrick corbin so high?

Norman Ginsberg
Norman Ginsberg
1 month ago

I know it’s only 1 start, but do you have an opinion between Gore and Kirby?

Norman Ginsberg
Norman Ginsberg
1 month ago

Your rankings favor McKenzie (CLE) over Gore, so I assume you’d recommend cutting Gore if I neec to dump one of them, right?

And how would you choose between Gore and Kirby?

Nightpandas
Nightpandas
1 month ago

Hey Blair,

15 team keep 11, relatively shallow for bats (no mi or ci, only 3 of and one Util but relatively deep for pitching

Would you deal Semien for Triston Mackenzie…would have been nuts a month ago…

My staff is half decent…Gausman Buehler Alcantara JoMo Ashby Mikolas Roansy Ober (IL) Tony Disco (IL)

W l k k/9 era whip qs

I’ve got Albies at 2 and could put Royce at ss until Tatis is ready…would have had Tatis at cf but Happ may be ok

Thanks man

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Blair,

Thanks for all your hard work on this list. I followed your advice and did pick up Jalen Beeks.

1. I was planning on starting Paul Blackburn on the road at Detroit. Do you agree?

2. I also was leaning to start Chris Flexan of Seattle at home against the Phils. Do you agree?

3. I could pick up Martin Perez of Texas but passed. Do you agree?

4. On a more general question, how do you decide whether to start a streamer? Is there a metric? What is on your decision tree? for example, I picked up Aaron Ashby. How do I decide whether to start him?

Thanks for all your effort and honesty!

Martin

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

Very Helpful!!!!!

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

So very helpful! Really appreciate the details. A great example of teaching a man or woman to fish. Well done!!

Harper Better Than Trout
Harper Better Than Trout
1 month ago

1. Is Cortes a sell high? A hold?
2. Where would you rank Clevinger and Sonny? Why are they not ranked?
3. Can you help me rank ROS Sonny, JoMo, Cortes and Clevinger?

toolshed
toolshed
1 month ago

I get what you are saying about rookie pitchers. Would you cut cobb for kirby? I like cobb’s statcast page and his advanced stats even after that bad outing against Wash which should have been a rehab start in the minors. He’s pitched better than his era and his 46% strand rate sticks out. The problem with him is health and they seem to pull him at 75-80 pitches so far. Thanks

Mike Honcho
Mike Honcho
1 month ago

Can S.Strider stick in the ATL rotation?

Mike Honcho
Mike Honcho
Reply to  Mike Honcho
1 month ago

You seem pretty confident in Carrasco.
Quite the opposite from your kissin’ cousins at TPL.