Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2022: Week 5

May 9, 2022 | 2022 Fantasy Baseball | 31 Comments

It’s gonna be May! [insert Justin Trousersnake GIF]. I wish writing this stuff was as easy as being in a boy band. If only I had been born with small pores and the ability to dance! Instead, I got this weird gene that keeps my feet locked on the floor, which also ruined any potential careers in basketball, rock climbing, or being a high wire trapeze artist. Apparently, I got the gene for spotting semi-useful fantasy pitchers as well. Thanks, mom! That’s my recognition of Mother’s Day — Mom, you were the one who gifted me this ability to stare at numbers and make sense of them. In another life, I could be that guy in the Matrix who stares at code all day and sees “blonde, redhead…” and so on. But in this life, I’m 20 years beyond the production of Garden State and still wondering how people in the aughts thought The Shins were going to change music forever. Good job Hollywood! ENYWHEY. Let’s see what I can do for your fantasy teams this week!

News and Notes

Tyler Mahle: JKJ asked in writer’s chat if Mahle was toast, and to my surprise, the other writers said, “Yes.” Am I so out of touch? No, it’s the kids who are out of touch. [makes steamed hams] Through his first 5 starts and that 7+ ERA, Mahle has faced 120 batters and was responsible for 20 of them crossing home plate. Yeesh. But wait — is that shrine to Gamblor, the God of Variance I see you worshipping at? Within that embarrassing 20 ER mark? Mahle had allowed only 1 home run and 3 barrels. 120 batters. 3 barrels. That’s insane. Let’s frame this another way: Mahle is the second-best pitcher in MLB 2022 at preventing barrels in the cohort of pitchers with similar batted ball events (80+). OK, the BB/9 near 5 ain’t stellar. But we’re talking about a 7+ ERA pitcher who has a sub-4.00 xERA and FIP and is invoking weak contact at a career-best rate. The Reds are a disaster and even Charlie Sheen could only must a 3-win season there this year, but Mahle’s not the reason for the poor performance. If anything, he’s a pitcher you’ll want to target in DFS and do your best to hold until regression hits and he’s back to the SP3 you were expecting.

Robbie Ray: After JKJ got the Mahle thing going, Coolwhip was worried about Robbie Ray. Aren’t we all? I put on my Robbie Ray compression pants whenever I feel nervous. Wearing them feels like a hug from grandpa. Also, don’t ask me about my grandpa. ENYWHEY. Robbie Ray hasn’t allowed a barrel in his last three games, but the overall stat line is yawnstipating — 2 wins, 7.5 K/9, 4.38 ERA. He’s still going with the two-pitch approach in 2022 (OK, 2% curveball usage, sue me), but his fastball is down 2MPH compared to last year. Bingo — problem found! Could Ray still be warming up after the short off-season? Did he change tailors? Whatever. It’s not uncommon for pitchers to start slow and then let loose when it’s warmer. We’ve seen Ray’s fastball already speed up nearly 1.5MPH since his season debut (91.5–>92.9/93.7 in his last two games), so better times are coming.

Alek Manoah: Let’s do that thing where we put stats from mystery players next to each other:

Name	Player Rater	Barrels/%	CSW%	FIP	ERA
Player A	SP1	3/3.9%	27.3%	3.16	1.45
Player B	SP183	3/3.8%	27.2%	3.21	7.01

Come on, did you even read the start of the article? Player A is Alek Manoah and Player B is Tyler Mahle. So, this comparison table? This is why I hate fantasy sports. Analytically-minded players instantly recognize that Mahle is playing just as well as Alek Manoah, but Manoah’s variance in the “good” direction for fantasy creates wins for fantasy mavens. Manoah’s 4 wins — which puts him on pace for 24 wins on the season — is tied for the league lead. Mahle’s variance in the “bad” direction for fantasy has probably torched a couple of fantasy teams already. Manoah has more wins…than the entire Reds team (he said at the time of writing). Regression usually happens, which means that both Manoah and Mahle are heading towards the same ERA. So, is Manoah more like Mahle, or is Mahle more like Manoah? We’ll find out soon! That’s why we watch the game! What’s more, regression tends to happen very quickly. For Manoah, we’ll probably see his “negative” regression in the form of a win drought; if that regression doesn’t come, his early stat line looks remarkably on track to be a 2022 version of 2021 Julio Urias; Urias ended as SP3 on the year. Even so, if Manoah normalizes towards his projections, he’s got top 20 SP potential for the rest of the season. His elite control in 2022 is a great step forward, and the early-season returns look like a great dynasty league investment.

Shane Bieber: Some days you’ve got it, some days you don’t. Before Saturday, he had a 2.45 ERA and 3.01 FIP. Then came 7 earnies and 3 walks in 3 innings with no strikeouts. Can’t even say that he got unlucky (cue Un-Pharrell and Un-Daft Punk). These things happen <— things my mom said to me every time my friends abandoned me at the park. I’m not worried about Bieber comma Shane. Now Justin? That guy scares me.

George Kirby: Georges Kirbé — top pitching prospect alert! Remember how good Spencer Howard, Nate Pearson, MacKenzie Gore, Triston McKenzie (must be a McKenzie thing…), Casey Mize, and Matt Manning were last year? We all love some prospects but the truth is, sometimes they need a bit more playing time than their rookie year before they’re useful for fantasy. Last year’s top rookie pitcher — Trevor Rogers — was the #90 overall consensus prospect. The second-best overall rookie pitcher was none other than the unheralded Luis Garcia, who had never played above High-A ball. In terms of WAR, the best “premier prospect” rookie pitcher in 2021 was Logan Gilbert, who finished 6-5 with a 4.68 ERA. Fantasy stud! I’m not saying Kirby won’t be good or won’t be useful for fantasy in 2022. What I am saying, is that prospect pitchers are very risky. If you remember back to my pre-season post about timing, you’ll remember that Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Zack Greinke were all pitchers that needed several years before they topped the MLB and fantasy charts (Scherzer and deGrom were older than 30 before leading the league in Ks, and Greinke had nearly 5 years as a starter before leading the league in ERA). My best wishes to Monsieur Kirbé for a delicious 2022. For you fantasy managers wishing to roster Kirby — you do you.

Framber Valdez: The Frambimal…wait, that doesn’t sound right. Frambdextrous…that sounds like a Dr. Strange villain. FV…how FanGraphs! Whatever. Valdez has a 7.2 K/9 and a 4.2 BB/9 on the year. This is not a recipe for success. On the plus side, his last outing finished with 7K and only 1BB…against the Detroit Tigers. Sigh. The Big FV is worth fantasy attention, but that K/BB ratio has very few comps for enduring success. Hopefully, he can face the Tigers a few more times and figure out his control issues.

Kyle Hendricks: 1-3, K/9 under 7, and an ERA and FIP above 5. I’m gonna keep harping on this all year. You think I forget what the big sites are trying to do to you? I’m like Pepperidge Farm: overpriced and usually dry. Wait. I never forget. That too.

Miles Mikolas: We’re [and I write this like we’re a community, sharing coffee and thinking about pitchers] a few years out from Mikolas being fantasy relevant. You know what an agent can do for you? $17M a year when you’ve got basically 1 year on your resume of above-average MLB experience. You know Shane Bieber’s making $6 million this year, right? Miles Mikolas has made nearly $40 million to pitch 60IP while all Bieber did was go and win the Cy Young. What a world! Now as you go out into that work world this Monday, ask yourself: am I Miles Mikolas, or Shane Bieber? ENYWHEY. Mikolas is suddenly fantasy relevant again because he’s doing that Zack Greinke thing where they rack up innings with meh K-rates and low walk rates. Mikolas’ true skill stats are nearly 2 points higher than his ERA, which indicates that Mikolas is due for major regression soon. And all those fantasy managers who are strutting through social media with Alek Manoah and Miles Mikolas saying that they’re in first place now? Watch what happens in another month. Hey Siri, remind me in a month to make fun of Kyle Hendricks.

Mitch Keller: I don’t really like Keller, but he’s leading the league in ERA-FIP discrepancy by a fair amount. His true skill stats are at a tolerable 4-ish level. He’s a deep league add if you’re looking for a starter. Acquire in 12+ team leagues.

Zack Greinke / Josiah Gray: Same as above but in the opposite (bad) direction — these are the pitchers who lead the league in FIP-ERA discrepancy (along with the other true skill stats), meaning they’re in for a tough time coming up. Now’s the time to trade these guys.

Add these guys: As of Sunday, my system says these guys are under-owned in RCLs: Tyler Anderson, Brock Burke, Jalen Beeks, Jakob Junis (back in MLB and started on Sunday), Blake Treinen

The Rankings

For those of you who are visually inclined, here’s a graph of the top pitchers. It says the same thing as my chart, except it’s organized horizontally instead of vertically. I’m a creative genius!

Always do a sanity check. I’m providing free data that quite literally has a better or higher correlation to fantasy efficacy than many sites that charge an arm and a leg and don’t answer your questions. That said, I’m human and make mistakes; I also submit the article on Sunday so there’s a bit of lag. The source of this data is none other than Razzball itself. So, if you are winning money or having a great time reading the articles, please consider a subscription to the site or drop me a line in the comments and let me know I’m not wasting my life away for naught.

Here’s how to use the list:

Tier: 1=best, 2=everybody else for 12 team consideration, 3=deep league/dynasty/best ball/tournaments/DFS.
Name: Player name
Confidence: The overall score my system outputs. The higher the score, the more confident I am in using the player in the near term. As always, we’re in small sample size territory, so this ranking will get better as the season goes on.
Own%: This is the rostership % of the player in Razzball Commenter Leagues, run on Fantrax. This % may vary depending on site and format for readers.
L30$/G: This is how valuable the player has been over the past month. Players with high confidence who have low or negative $/G are “buy low” candidates. Spot starters/Roleless Robs will have a lower $/G because they play in more games.

Tier	Name	Confidence	Own%	L30$/G
1	Carlos Rodon	3.961	100	40.2
1	Dylan Cease	3.846	100	21.3
1	Michael King	3.819		11.7
1	Shohei Ohtani	3.699	100	19.3
1	Garrett Whitlock	3.633	100	8.2
1	Max Scherzer	3.589	100	41.1
1	Shane McClanahan	3.583	100	9.6
1	Corbin Burnes	3.536	100	24.8
1	Eric Lauer	3.528	100	34.8
1	Brandon Woodruff	3.444	100	-8
1	Nestor Cortes	3.381	100	8.6
1	Jesus Luzardo	3.304	100	6.3
1	Kevin Gausman	3.299	100	23.1
1	Freddy Peralta	3.231	100	-26.4
1	Lucas Giolito	3.100	100	1.4
1	Kyle Wright	2.970	100	30.6
1	Tylor Megill	2.947	100	24.4
1	Clayton Kershaw	2.943	100	44
1	Joe Musgrove	2.928	100	36.4
1	Tarik Skubal	2.867	100	-7.3
1	Max Fried	2.848	100	25.5
2	Triston McKenzie	2.769	100	1.2
2	Paul Blackburn	2.768	77	16.4
2	Pablo Lopez	2.756	100	35.1
2	Merrill Kelly	2.731	100	22.9
2	Frankie Montas	2.708	100	4.4
2	Carlos Carrasco	2.691	100	6.4
2	Aaron Nola	2.657	100	3.6
2	Chris Bassitt	2.647	100	22.6
2	Sean Manaea	2.638	100	-6
2	Chris Paddack	2.621	80	-10.3
2	Ryan Helsley	2.602	100	8.7
2	Tyler Mahle	2.594	91	-46.9
2	A.J. Minter	2.589		-3.3
2	Kenley Jansen	2.579	100	1.8
2	Patrick Corbin	2.573	11	-68.5
2	Zac Gallen	2.564	100	20.5
2	Drew Rasmussen	2.563	100	7
2	Sam Hentges	2.528	2	-0.8
2	Patrick Sandoval	2.527	100	6.7
2	Zack Wheeler	2.527	100	-22.9
2	Logan Webb	2.520	100	-12.3
2	Justin Verlander	2.516	100	37.9
2	Alek Manoah	2.510	100	42.9
2	Bruce Zimmermann	2.498		-0.9
2	Joe Ryan	2.493	100	30.8
2	Chasen Shreve	2.492	2	-0.3
2	Corey Kluber	2.475	80	-0.6
2	Shane Bieber	2.464	100	-23.9
2	Eduardo Rodriguez	2.454	93	-28.6
2	Wil Crowe	2.452	23	-1.5
2	Justin Wilson	2.446		-4
2	Logan Gilbert	2.441	100	24
2	Steven Matz	2.436	57	-37.5
2	Yu Darvish	2.419	100	-6.3
2	Jordan Montgomery	2.412	100	-14.1
2	Tyler Anderson	2.405	41	12.3
2	Cristian Javier	2.402	100	16.9
2	Michael Kopech	2.402	100	-2
2	Brooks Raley	2.401	23	-1.1
2	JT Brubaker	2.393	7	-42
2	Zach Eflin	2.389	9	-36.1
2	Trevor Gott	2.386		-0.2
2	Josh Winder	2.384		18.1
2	Spencer Strider	2.383		0.7
2	Evan Phillips	2.380		-0.9
2	Martin Perez	2.374		-10.8
2	Jovani Moran	2.371		4.8
2	Brock Burke	2.365	5	5.8
2	Victor Arano	2.362		-8.1
2	Miles Mikolas	2.358	100	11.3
2	Austin Gomber	2.349	7	-9
2	MacKenzie Gore	2.346	100	11.1
2	Erik Swanson	2.338		-1.4
2	David Bednar	2.338	100	2
2	Adrian Houser	2.333	18	-4.9
2	Walker Buehler	2.325	100	14.4
2	Dane Dunning	2.310	2	-19.7
2	Scott Effross	2.310		-4
2	Tanner Houck	2.296	55	-25.1
2	Luis Garcia	2.294	100	7.5
2	Luis Garcia	2.294	100	7.5
2	Josh Hader	2.291	100	7.3
2	Adam Wainwright	2.282	98	-7.6
2	Mitch Keller	2.280	5	-54.4
2	Andrew Heaney	2.277	89	49.8
2	Alex Wood	2.275	100	-15.7
2	Ross Stripling	2.268		-33
2	Gerrit Cole	2.267	100	-1.1
2	Mauricio Llovera	2.264		-4
2	Alex Cobb	2.249	86	-25.4
2	Kyle Nelson	2.244		-3.3
2	Seranthony Dominguez	2.239	2	-4.9
2	Parker Mushinski	2.236		-8.3
2	Nick Pivetta	2.231	5	-51.5
2	Trevor Stephan	2.231	5	0.1
2	Dylan Bundy	2.228	36	-22.6
2	Daniel Hudson	2.226	7	0.8
2	Jameson Taillon	2.223	73	-11.8
2	Jose Alvarado	2.222		-6.6
2	Jason Adam	2.222		-2.9
2	Raisel Iglesias	2.213	100	2.6
2	Chad Kuhl	2.210	59	25.5
2	Daniel Bard	2.208	100	6.2
2	Marcus Stroman	2.207	89	-29.7
2	Framber Valdez	2.206	100	-22.6
2	Sergio Romo	2.201		-0.5
2	Julian Merryweather	2.200		-9.8
2	Kyle Gibson	2.193	89	1.8
2	Alex Vesia	2.192		-2.3
2	JT Chargois	2.187		0.7
2	Luis Severino	2.186	100	-13.4
2	Robbie Ray	2.176	100	-21.3
2	Jeffrey Springs	2.174	2	1.5
2	Collin McHugh	2.174	2	-10.4
2	Keegan Thompson	2.173	9	9
2	Kyle Freeland	2.173	2	-29.3
2	Sam Selman	2.166		12.6
2	A.J. Puk	2.151		-1.4
2	Humberto Castellanos	2.146		-20.2
2	Nathan Eovaldi	2.142	100	-3.9
2	Kendall Graveman	2.141	11	-5.5
2	Rafael Montero	2.136	75	0.9
2	Taylor Hearn	2.135		-49.8
2	Alex Lange	2.133		-3.3
2	Paul Sewald	2.122	52	-4.2
2	Brad Keller	2.122	39	9.1
2	Joan Adon	2.116		-57.9
2	Jalen Beeks	2.107	2	6.4
2	Jose Quintana	2.103		-26.3
2	Noah Syndergaard	2.101	100	6.5
2	Sandy Alcantara	2.097	100	-11.9
2	Drew Smith	2.095	2	-1.5
2	Jorge Lopez	2.093	100	4.8
2	Penn Murfee	2.087		6.8
2	Josiah Gray	2.087	98	-0.1
2	Devin Williams	2.078	70	-4.4
2	Erick Fedde	2.078		-26.8
2	Taylor Rogers	2.077	100	6.8
2	Andrew Chafin	2.077		-5.6
2	Tim Mayza	2.077		-1.9
2	David Robertson	2.076	100	3.4
2	Jimmy Herget	2.070		-9.3
2	Cody Stashak	2.066		2.5
2	Aaron Civale	2.066	34	-65.3
2	Pierce Johnson	2.066	9	-8.7
2	Griffin Jax	2.064		4.2
2	Reid Detmers	2.063	9	-28
2	Sean Doolittle	2.059		-1.1
2	Hector Neris	2.053	25	-1.5
2	Tanner Scott	2.051	2	-5.7
2	Aaron Ashby	2.050	66	-23.8
2	Dillon Tate	2.043		-3.9
2	Adam Ottavino	2.043		-8
2	Edwin Diaz	2.042	100	3.5
2	Zach Jackson	2.042		-8.3
2	Robert Dugger	2.031		-20.2
2	Julio Urias	2.024	100	10.2
2	David Peterson	2.022	2	-1.6
2	Liam Hendriks	2.019	100	-1.2
2	Clay Holmes	2.017	57	1.2
2	John Brebbia	2.015		-3.7
2	Andrew Kittredge	2.013	100	6.2
2	Duane Underwood Jr.	2.013		-20.4
2	Trevor Rogers	2.011	100	-45.2
2	German Marquez	2.008	68	-71
2	Anthony Bass	2.007		-3.7
2	Tony Gonsolin	2.001	100	4.8
3	Bailey Ober	1.998	86	-10.8
3	Bryan Abreu	1.997		-5.7
3	Rich Hill	1.996	2	-18.8
3	Phillips Valdez	1.995		-9
3	Justin Steele	1.991		-47.7
3	Bryan Baker	1.988		-7.2
3	Corbin Martin	1.981		-12.1
3	Chris Stratton	1.975	23	-7.1
3	Jordan Romano	1.971	100	4
3	Camilo Doval	1.966	100	-3.3
3	Brad Boxberger	1.965		-1.5
3	Michael Wacha	1.964	80	21.6
3	Vince Velasquez	1.957		-17.1
3	Zach Davies	1.955		-19.3
3	Jhoan Duran	1.952	91	-1.7
3	J.P. Feyereisen	1.949	9	4.9
3	Michael Lorenzen	1.944	57	-8.5
3	Charlie Morton	1.940	98	-59.8
3	Daulton Jefferies	1.939	5	-34.9
3	Cal Quantrill	1.939	36	-22.6
3	Daniel Lynch	1.935	30	-4.8
3	Josh Fleming	1.935	2	-45.2
3	Lucas Luetge	1.932		-6.4
3	Jakob Junis	1.915	11	36
3	Aaron Loup	1.909	2	-1.7
3	Bryse Wilson	1.907		-29.2
3	Andres Munoz	1.904	41	-4.9
3	Corey Knebel	1.903	100	-4.2
3	Luis Cessa	1.902		-6.7
3	Emmanuel Clase	1.900	100	-3.3
3	Jose Ruiz	1.885		-6.4
3	Jesse Chavez	1.883		-9.4
3	Zack Greinke	1.876	41	-19.2
3	Eli Morgan	1.875		-12.8
3	Matt Strahm	1.873	2	-4
3	Chris Flexen	1.872	18	-16.4
3	Steven Okert	1.869		0.3
3	Tony Santillan	1.867		-9.5
3	Josh Staumont	1.852	48	-7.2
3	Jeff Hoffman	1.845		-5.3
3	Andrew Bellatti	1.845		-3.6
3	Jake Odorizzi	1.844	14	-24.1
3	Tyler Wells	1.840		-32.6
3	Elieser Hernandez	1.836	23	-40.1
3	Mychal Givens	1.836	25	-5.6
3	Will Vest	1.833		-1.3
3	Jose Urquidy	1.829		-27
3	Enyel De Los Santos	1.825		-7.9
3	Adonis Medina	1.823		20.5
3	Tyler Kinley	1.819		-5.9
3	Tyler Thornburg	1.817		-6.3
3	Jhon Romero	1.810		-8.3
3	Steve Cishek	1.809		-9.9
3	Collin Snider	1.806		-3.1
3	Chris Martin	1.802		-5.3
3	Dusten Knight	1.802		-13.3
3	Kyle Hendricks	1.800	70	-47
3	Ryan Brasier	1.799		-7.3
3	Tanner Rainey	1.795	100	0.2
3	Tommy Kahnle	1.793		-1.5
3	Kyle Barraclough	1.793		4.7
3	Taylor Clarke	1.791		-2.7
3	Joely Rodriguez	1.791		-7.7
3	Yimi Garcia	1.788		-8.5
3	Roansy Contreras	1.779	5	-2.4
3	Tyler Rogers	1.778		-6.5
3	Matt Brash	1.778	7	-27.7
3	Glenn Otto	1.776		7.4
3	Dany Jimenez	1.776		2.5
3	Anderson Severino	1.772		-11.5
3	Giovanny Gallegos	1.768	100	-4
3	Rowan Wick	1.767	9	-2.2
3	Carlos Hernandez	1.766	7	-71
3	Dillon Peters	1.754		11.9
3	Konnor Pilkington	1.753		2
3	Keegan Akin	1.749		-14.4
3	Gabe Speier	1.746		0.3
3	Alexis Diaz	1.739	2	-3.2
3	Cole Irvin	1.729	11	-6.5
3	Robert Suarez	1.727	2	-5
3	Jose Berrios	1.725	100	-42.6
3	Steven Wilson	1.723		0.3
3	Hunter Harvey	1.722		-3.6
3	Felix Bautista	1.714		-6.5
3	Anthony Gose	1.712		-5.6
3	Blake Treinen	1.701	20	5.5
3	Jordan Lyles	1.701	9	-33.8
3	Nick Lodolo	1.700	73	-31.4
3	Zach Plesac	1.697	39	-37.4
3	Matt Foster	1.692		-3.7
3	Joe Jimenez	1.690		-6.9
3	Jose Álvarez	1.689		-5.6
3	Matt Wisler	1.688		-3.4
3	Dakota Hudson	1.687	14	-9.5
3	Wily Peralta	1.685		-17
3	Joe Barlow	1.673	100	2.6
3	Justin Lawrence	1.671		-5.3
3	Darren O’Day	1.668		-2.2
3	Jake Cousins	1.667		-6.1
3	Mitch White	1.665		-8
3	Dominic Leone	1.664		-4.3
3	Vladimir Gutierrez	1.660		-89.7
3	Anthony Kay	1.655		-29.7
3	Adam Cimber	1.652	16	2.8
3	Anthony DeSclafani	1.650	75	-61.6
3	Kodi Whitley	1.644		-3.3
3	Austin Voth	1.643		-10.4
3	Justin Grimm	1.642		-11.7
3	Chris Archer	1.640	2	-25.3
3	Reynaldo Lopez	1.639	2	1.2
3	Jackson Kowar	1.639		-168.2
3	David Phelps	1.637		-7.8
3	Brad Hand	1.634	7	-4.7
3	Tanner Banks	1.633		-1.8
3	Cody Poteet	1.632		-2.6
3	Ian Anderson	1.629	100	-13.9
3	Zach Pop	1.629		-27.7
3	Aroldis Chapman	1.628	100	0.3
3	Jon Gray	1.628	39	-50
3	Archie Bradley	1.627		-9.8
3	Caleb Thielbar	1.626		-11.3
3	Jordan Hicks	1.626	16	-18
3	Aaron Bummer	1.621	5	-9.3
3	Brian Moran	1.620		-41.8
3	Jose Quijada	1.613		-8
3	Rony Garcia	1.612		-5.8
3	Phoenix Sanders	1.605		-2.9
3	Reyes Moronta	1.602		-6
3	Paolo Espino	1.598		-25.6

31 Comments

Newest

Oldest Most Voted

Inline Feedbacks

View all comments

Dude

1 month ago

You picking up Bradish? I know it’s a small sample.

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to Dude

1 month ago

Not totally impressed, deep league grab for sure, 12-teamer is kinda risky

LenFuego

1 month ago

What does it mean for a guy like Ranger Suarez not to even be on the list? Is that an oversight or is he beyond Paolo Espino at the bottom?

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to LenFuego

1 month ago

Ranger’s really funked up — he’s at 359 on the big list. K rate is horrible, FIP above 5, and his ERA — although atrocious — is probably getting worse. Let him go in all formats until he figures himself out.

LenFuego

Reply to everywhereblair

1 month ago

I was hoping mabye he had figured himself out with yesterday’s start.

T T

1 month ago

I used your system to build an average pitching staff last year for cheap. I invested heavy on hitting and my pitching was an even bigger disaster than planned to start the year. By end of the year the average pitching was plenty to pair with my elite hitting to give me the best team in the league.

I’ve done the much of the same this year, though much of it was through using lessons I’ve learned here in the draft than your rankings. I basically wait on bated breath for your rankings on Monday because your system points out who I’m missing or who I’m behind on needing to dump. It’s especially helpful when it comes to disparities between perceived value gained and what they’ve actually done. If anything it’s probably best at telling me when to move people that should be moved.

I wanna add I’ve always been amused by the people confusing your system as a direct ranking system. You’d think it’d be common sense that you shouldn’t trade Wheeler for Michael King or whatnot just because he’s higher ranked here and that your system is just another tool to see how ppl are actually pitching with projection in mind. From how many times people questioned Andrew Heaney’s rankings last year that doesn’t seem to be the case.

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to T T

1 month ago

Thanks for the support TT!

It’s somewhat of a secret that even the most well-known fantasy analysts actually have zero stats backing up their claims/ranks. They actually just look at a list (usually they steal it from somebody more famous), move some players around, and call it a day. This is usually the case for rankers who just have a “list” of players with no corresponding statistics/score.

What Rudy does with projections — it’s hard, and it’s costly. There’s a reason there are basically three big projectionists out there — Derek Carty, Rudy Gamble (and Steamer), and FanGraphs, and Rudy could arguably be the only one who makes his projections specifically for fantasy sports (as opposed to real-life baseball). The rest are either projection aggregators (like, they take other people’s projections and then normalize the outcomes), or, they make stuff up. Truth is, the best projection systems have like a 30% hit rate on the top players. DFS players know this, and it’s why they spend so much effort figuring out, “Out of the other 70% of players who aren’t projectable, who has the best chance of making me money tonight?” They know they’ll be wrong 80-90% of the time because that’s just normal. Even the best hitter fails to get on base 7 out of 10 times. A stunning power hitter will hit maybe 2 HR *per week*. When the gambler is right, it’s a black swan event that pays off enough to cover their losses, and more.

So yeah, I don’t project, just like you say. The best I — or anybody who isn’t running a complex algorithm — can do, is to say “If X takes the mound today in some capacity, should they be on my fantasy roster?” And we can make an informed decision about that. But the rest? That’s why we watch the game, ain’t it?

Cheers and thanks for the comment!

Brian

1 month ago

First off thank you so much for all of your hard work and everything you do. I felt so lucky when I came across this site looking for a random question. I saw your ranking of Whitlock and got super excited and offered Alcantara for him. Now I’m a little nervous it was the right move. Any feedback would be very helpful. I should’ve asked for Peralta maybe so I wouldn’t be second guessing myself. But I’d love to hear why you’re so big on Whitlock, I guess just to put my nerves at ease haha. Thank you again.

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to Brian

1 month ago

Thanks for the support! I’ve never been big on Alcantara compared to the field of fantasy analysts (some really boring players have very similar comps to Alcantara). Whitlock’s rank is driven by elite K/9, FIP, and low WHIP — everything one wants for a fantasy starter. Of course, real-life management is a different story. Will he stay a starter? Can he manage a workload? All that fun stuff. But right now, in the near term, he’s looking like a fantastic investment. That said, the public perception of Alcantara is that Sandy is extremely valuable due to IP, so, you likely could have gotten “more.” Cheers!

Jolt In Flow

1 month ago

<> Well done, EWB, well done!

Great material as always. Ecstatic to see Skubal sneaking into Tier 1.

All the best!

Jolt

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to Jolt In Flow

1 month ago

Thanks for the support Jolt! I can’t believe I’m allowing a Tigers pitcher into the top tier…I must be crazy!

David Lee

1 month ago

how is patrick corbin so high?

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to David Lee

1 month ago

He’s got a 3.29 FIP / 4.19 SIERA on the year, and his 28.3% CSW isn’t shabby. I’m not personally high on him, but like Mahle, Corbin’s playing way better than his ERA indicates.

Norman Ginsberg

1 month ago

I know it’s only 1 start, but do you have an opinion between Gore and Kirby?

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to Norman Ginsberg

1 month ago

Gore’s probably got the seniority edge right now (Gore already worked thru his troubles last year, kinda like life lessons learned). But Kirby won’t be truly projectable for about half a season, so if you’re seeing things you like in his starts, absolutely grab him

Norman Ginsberg

1 month ago

Your rankings favor McKenzie (CLE) over Gore, so I assume you’d recommend cutting Gore if I neec to dump one of them, right?

And how would you choose between Gore and Kirby?

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to Norman Ginsberg

1 month ago

Yeah the 2.7 vs 2.1 score is pretty significant…I try to limit the number of tiers so it’s not like 11 tiers, but the true skill stats are in favor of Tristan going forward.

Nightpandas

1 month ago

Hey Blair,

15 team keep 11, relatively shallow for bats (no mi or ci, only 3 of and one Util but relatively deep for pitching

Would you deal Semien for Triston Mackenzie…would have been nuts a month ago…

My staff is half decent…Gausman Buehler Alcantara JoMo Ashby Mikolas Roansy Ober (IL) Tony Disco (IL)

W l k k/9 era whip qs

I’ve got Albies at 2 and could put Royce at ss until Tatis is ready…would have had Tatis at cf but Happ may be ok

Thanks man

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to Nightpandas

1 month ago

It’s a tough one because enough people are complaining about the lack of mlb offense that the league *could* change the ball again, like they did in 2021. In that case, pitchers become less valuable than hitters with a power profile like Semien.

But the smart move, if you have Tatis, is to move your surplus MI. Of course, Tatis may be toast (see Pablo Sandoval’s recovery), but in most leagues, it’s fine to move Semien. I’d imagine you could ask for something with more track record than TM, but TM has had a nice start to his career and the Guardians are great with their pitchers. If you’re feeling it, go for it!

martinrostoker

1 month ago

Hi Blair,

Thanks for all your hard work on this list. I followed your advice and did pick up Jalen Beeks.

1. I was planning on starting Paul Blackburn on the road at Detroit. Do you agree?

2. I also was leaning to start Chris Flexan of Seattle at home against the Phils. Do you agree?

3. I could pick up Martin Perez of Texas but passed. Do you agree?

4. On a more general question, how do you decide whether to start a streamer? Is there a metric? What is on your decision tree? for example, I picked up Aaron Ashby. How do I decide whether to start him?

Thanks for all your effort and honesty!

Martin

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to martinrostoker

1 month ago

As a Twins fan, I’d start your grandma vs Detroit lol. Sure

Flexed is a points league star but I’d avoid unless you need him in Roto.

I saw Perez too and almost wrote about him. I don’t really believe in him. Pass.

For streamers, you want to take into account strength of matchup (yes Pirates, no Dodgers), if major lineup changes are an issue (are the dodgers sitting their starters? Is it a bullpen game for the other team?) , and whether your streamer has the ability to strikeout batters (is their current k/9 above 9, or is their CSW% above 27%?). Bonus points for researching if the team’s bullpen was depleted during the previous game — if, say, the brewers used their entire pen in the previous game, Ashby would be asked to pitch as many IP as possible. If he has a good game, the conditions are ripe for maximum return on investment, which is all we ask for. Good luck!

martinrostoker

Reply to everywhereblair

1 month ago

Very Helpful!!!!!

martinrostoker

Reply to everywhereblair

1 month ago

So very helpful! Really appreciate the details. A great example of teaching a man or woman to fish. Well done!!

Harper Better Than Trout

1 month ago

1. Is Cortes a sell high? A hold?
2. Where would you rank Clevinger and Sonny? Why are they not ranked?
3. Can you help me rank ROS Sonny, JoMo, Cortes and Clevinger?

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to Harper Better Than Trout

1 month ago

A lot of the Razz crew liked Cortes coming into the year — he just needed an actual starting spot — and the combo of having a rotation role and a bit of maturity has helped him. Every sign is saying “hold” right now.

Clev and Sonny don’t have enough IP to be predictable right now. They’re currently in the 360s on the big sheet, and as they approach the IP cutline (18 IP at this point), they’ll start rising up the ranks. I liked Gray in the pre-season, but Clev has a lot of history to work against — very few TJ-returnees have both K/9 success and IP volume their first year back.

Cortes by a mile right now and then everybody else a distant 2nd tier, with JoMo getting the lead.

toolshed

1 month ago

I get what you are saying about rookie pitchers. Would you cut cobb for kirby? I like cobb’s statcast page and his advanced stats even after that bad outing against Wash which should have been a rehab start in the minors. He’s pitched better than his era and his 46% strand rate sticks out. The problem with him is health and they seem to pull him at 75-80 pitches so far. Thanks

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to toolshed

1 month ago

Yeah that’s gonna be Cobb’s sticking point — the IP. But so many SP don’t need big IP to be successful, so be careful about that. SEA could easily let Kirby run free and make me look dumb but that’s more of an outlier than the norm. The standard fantasy league play is to let Cobb remain on your roster, but in high stakes, Kirby’s upside is what you want.

Mike Honcho

1 month ago

Can S.Strider stick in the ATL rotation?

Mike Honcho

Reply to Mike Honcho

1 month ago

You seem pretty confident in Carrasco.
Quite the opposite from your kissin’ cousins at TPL.

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to Mike Honcho

1 month ago

It’s still kinda early but my system likes Carrasco’s ability to limit damage so far and his IP — he’s lagging in K, which is a less than optimal sign. But the true skill stats look great and who can complain about a 1.00 WHIP. Cookie was on a productive path before the 2021 Mets trainers took him and just about everybody else out of the game, so hopefully 2022 brings the health we need to see a resurgence.

everywhereblair

Author

Reply to Mike Honcho

1 month ago

Beat writers like him, which is a good sign. That said, they don’t *need* to start the clock on him, so like other rookies, he’ll be volatile in both job security and performance most likely