Looking for value in a baron steal world is not very fun. Scouring the waiver wire every day, wandering the earth looking for value or a good match-up is lonely territory. Kinda makes you feel like the guy from Kung Fu, but just not with all the sexual asphyxiation type stuff. Listen digging for steals and even saves for that matter is a matter of right place or being first to the waiver wire. Not every move is a good one, especially in the stolen base category. It’s fantastic that guys steal bases, but they also have to get on base. Stealing first is still a non-entity. So look at the match-ups at hand and do not be afraid to gamble on a guy. Check the OBP, check the catcher/pitcher rates of stolen bases against. And god forbid do not fall in love with the one-stat wonders of the world this late in the year. You don’t wanna be stuck holding a guy and miss out on the next guy to accumulate stats. Play, ditch and go re-fishing for stats.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
kelby tomlinson
DraftKings: Home Is Where The Heart Is…And Taijuan’s Stats
June 8, 2016 | DraftKings | 12 Commentsby: Sky
As the season progresses, we get these lovely things called ‘stats’. And with those stats, as they build and build, we get ‘stabilization of stats’. But sometimes you’re kinda in between and gotta start reading some tea leaves to beat others to the rush. With that, I started looking at Taijuan Walker and his miniscule $6,800 price tag. I mean, minus his last start, his stats looked really solid for the year as I’m fairly certain his ERA was sub-3 prior to the debacle in Texas. Then I realized: he likes homeschooling. Maybe he’s just a young pitcher still learning the ropes. Maybe he lets it fly at home because he knows the ballpark helps. Whatever it is, his home vs road splits are night and day and thankfully he’s at home…which I think is day in that metaphor. Regardless, at home Walker is rocking a 3.48 ERA backed by a 3.51 xFIP. Top that off with an 8.93 K/9 and a 1.96 BB/9, and you’re looking at some fairly elite stats over 41 IP so far. Given the cost and the big arms on the mound, making Walker your SP2 makes a lot of cents (see what I did there!). So Walker with me will you as we take a look at my taeks for this Wednesday DK slate…
New to DraftKings? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday June 13th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Nerds Again? Yes, this is my second consecutive week with a Nerds reference, thank you for noticing. Since my Tri-Lamb recommendation went for 28 points last Monday, I figured let’s keep it going tonight with John Lackey for a reasonable $9,400. Yes, Clayton Kershaw is at home tonight going for his 7th consecutive 10 K performance, but he’s $14,000 and he’ll be owned on most rosters so I wanted to highlight the less obvious choice. Yes, I like V2 and Rich Hill tonight as well, but Lackey loves him some Busch! Last month when he faced his former team he went 7 Ing, 11 K’s and 0 ER. Over the last 2 seasons Lackey went 11-4 with a 2.03 ERA racking up 129 K’s in 155 Ing’s, dude is lights out when he steps on the mound in St. Louis. I’m banking on Lackey being underowned tonight in both cash and tourney play, so now we’re going to try to find some budget offensive plays so we can pair him with Kershaw and cash in on tonights contests.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run today to wet your DK whistle. Just remember tosign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
SAGNOF Report: Smoke Show Stealing The, Well… Show
May 16, 2016 | Closers, Steals | 19 Commentsby: Smokey
You see that old rocking chair in the corner? That’s me, mister reliable. Made of wood and literally been around these parts since the dawn of time. I may not be the smartest fella, or the fartest smeller either, but I dig baseball. I get the stats and the hub-bub surrounding the intricacies of deeper stats. Relaying them in a manner that makes sense on paper and conveying them to you in a way that makes us all put away our Casio calculator watches is my style. This report covers similarities from what I touch on the regular in my bullpen post, so for the normalcy of life, I will add some of my usual middle relief spice into the streaming world of stolen bases. Sound good, grand glad we could agree. Rostering established stolen base guys is all well and good, but is a better feeling when you stream an option and he gets one that wasn’t normally accounted for. Kinda feels like stealing, in the actually stealing sense and not just in the statistical sense. The world of streaming swipes is becoming harder and harder as stolen bases are a stat best left for the dudes hitting dingers. The more a pitcher lets players get on base with SB opportunities, the increase for SB’s grows… sometimes. This is my first attempt at this post, so I am starting it my own way. So let’s look at this weeks options to stream stolen bases and the trends for which to follow for streaming ideas. Cheers!
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Wisler Building A Landmark In New York
May 4, 2016 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 791 Commentsby: Grey
Matthew Wisler threw a gem yesterday — 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 2 Walks, 4 Ks, lowering his ERA to 3.24. Or if you like portmanteaus and/or vomit — Matthrew up a gem. By the by, after anyone says their name is Matthew, do you always want to say, “Gesundheit?” “Name for the cup?” “Matthew.” “Wow, it’s allergy season, huh?” That’s me as a barista, a job I never had. I’ve actually held one real job in my entire life. I’m like Mark Cuban without the money. Since I own Wisler in more leagues than I care to admit, I watched the whole game. Prolly first time I watched one of my pitchers while listening to the opposing broadcast, but you cannot beat the Mets announcers for a broadcast booth or for stories about insane cocaine intake in the 80s. Wisler was dancing a 94 MPH fastball just at the knees, spinning a backdoor curve that had Neil Walker look more like Neil Statue. Duda? Go take a doodie, it’d be more productive than facing Wisler! Asdrubal? Well, he actually hit the ball hard. Quite a few Mets did. It was like, “Matthew! Damn, I think I caught something,” and the Braves would look up with a ball in their glove. So, Wisler’s performance last night was a gorgeous line, but I wouldn’t go near him outside of the deepest of leagues. In shallower leagues, Matthew? God bless you for last night, but I don’t need those tissues. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?The other day I made the best purchase of my life (okay, of the last week). I bought a thermometer that has a laser beam on it. You shoot the laser on the object and it tells you its exact temperature. It’s meant–Actually, I don’t know what it’s meant for. I bought it because our oven seems to be about 100 degrees off. Though, I got it five days ago and I haven’t used it for the oven once, but have measured the temperature of about twelve hundred other things. The coldest drinking water I’ve had was 49 degrees at this pizzeria around the corner from my house. Oh, yeah, I’ve been taking this out with me. I’ll go up to people on the street, shoot their temperature and be like, “You have a fever, you might want to take an aspirin.” I like to put on my flip flops when they’re between 68 to 71 degrees. Any colder and it stiffens my toes, any warmer and it raises my body temperature a full .4 degrees. I know this because I have a thermometer with a frickin laser on it! So, how does this relate to fantasy baseball? I was watching Justin Bour slug his 23rd homer yesterday, his 2nd of two homers in the game, and I shot his temperature. A blistering 109 degrees! Doode’s fahrenhot! Doode is straight butter that a professional hibachi chef puts on a sizzling lobster tail! Doode’s Kurt Russell in Backdraft! Yes, you should own him. In fact (Grey’s gonna say more!), you should’ve owned him for the last few months. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?
One Man’s Trash: Wham! Bam! Thank You Pham!
September 22, 2015 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 20 Commentsby: Big Magoo
Thomas Pham (+21.5%) was the most added player in fantasy baseball over the past week. No Holliday? No Grichuk? No problem! “Just call up the kid who’s name sounds like an oil filter. And change the oil in my Escalade while you’re at it.” That’s Cardinals GM John Mozeliak delegating authority while sipping on some single malt scotch in his office. Basically an afterthought entering this season, Pham has made the most of his sudden opportunity. The 27-year-old rookie has flashed little power and occasional speed in the minors since his promotion to AA ball in 2010 (single season highs of 10 homers and 20 steals in 2014), but has produced a 1.654 OPS with 4 homers and 1 steal with the Cards over the past week. Schmotato alert! His upcoming slate against the Reds and Brewers staffs is far from imposing as well. Enjoy the fling while it lasts, but be wary of a long-term commitment.
Here are a few other significant adds and drops in fantasy baseball over the past week:
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DraftKings: The Verrettable Cheap Starter
September 22, 2015 | DraftKings | 12 Commentsby: MattTruss
I love when halfway decent starting pitchers are given away for practically free on DraftKings. I especially enjoy it when it happens on a Coors field day. That of course could be read as a “Coors Field” day or as a Coors “field day”, because both are true. When you’re trying to squeeze in as much Coors exposure as you can, a 4K pitcher opens up an awful lot of options. Logan Verrett sits at $4,500 tonight and gets to square off at home against one of, if not the worst hitting team in the majors in the Atlanta Braves. Jon Niese just completely shut them down. That’s the same Niese who had given up 11 runs in his previous 8 IP mind you. The Braves have the lowest team OPS in the majors and their “lead” in the category seems to grow by the day. Verrett has been a more than capable spot starter for the Mets as they try to limit every one of their young pitcher’s innings. Tonight he fills in for deGrom and should be good to go for at least 75-80 pitches, possibly more. He only threw 63 against the Marlins over 5 IP, but the Mets let him air it out for 93 a month ago at Coors field. All he did there was hold the Rockies to 1 run in 8 IP and strikeout 8. The strikeout upside is limited with the Braves as they are pretty stingy when it comes to striking out, but posting zeros works too and a win should be easily obtained. For $4,500 you can’t get too greedy. I do imagine Verrett will be fairly highly owned at this price and Coors field on the docket so despite the low price he may be more of a cash game play than a GPP. Let’s look at some more plays for tonight’s DFS slate:
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 5 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
SAGNOF Special, Week 25: MLB Games Remaining by Team
September 21, 2015 | Steals | 5 Commentsby: RotoLance
I’m going down the path of J-FOH and others here and trying to give general, “win your league” type advice these last couple weeks. I’ve decided this week that advice will come in the form of how many games each team has left, along with noting which teams have Monday and Thursday off days. It’s not only useful for stolen bases but whatever category you need. And I’ll also be noting as I did last week, some speedsters that have gained playing time recently, these are players to consider for streaming stolen bases these last two weeks. So definitely couple this advice with the stolen bases versus starting pitchers SAGNOF tool and stream, stream, stream for steals, if you are up to the task. Here’s this weeks “Names to consider” from speediest to least speedy: Sam Fuld (Athletics), Abraham Almonte (Indian), Mikie Mahtook (Rays, decent power too), Andrew Romine (Tigers), Cory Spangenberg (Padres). Some of those aren’t exactly household names, which is basically the point.
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In the spirit of the playoffs, I’m going to run through one widely available player at each position who might be able to help you in your OPS stretch run. Let’s get started.
Catcher: Grey gave you J.P. Arencibia and Francisco Cervelli as buys yesterday. But, if those guys are taken and you are hurting at catcher, take a look at Florida’s J.T. Realmuto. Over the past two weeks, Realmuto has gone 13-for-34 with 3 home runs and a 1.084 OPS. He’s been one of the hottest hitting catchers going of late and he is owned in about 15% of ESPN leagues. I also considered Detroit’s James McCann for this one. Over the past week, McCann trails only Buster Posey, Kyle Schwarber, and Salvadaor Perez in OPS, posting a .853. But, playing time is a bit more of a concern with McCann, so Realmuto is the pick.
Please, blog, may I have some more? SAGNOF Special, Week 24: Steals Ain’t Got Much Time
September 14, 2015 | Closers, Steals | 6 Commentsby: RotoLance
I’ve made most of my recommendations this year with the long term in mind. I’m not easily swayed by a “hot” hitter, instead I tend to lean on the projections to set an expectation level. This late in the season, however, I’m uncertain of how effective that approach is. We can’t exactly count on any “regression to the mean” happening over such a small sample size of games. Some players will be good over the last few weeks, others will be poor and I don’t have a high degree of confidence that it is possible for me, or anyone for that matter, to predict the best base stealers to own these last three weeks (see this to know why). But I have some names for you even though I have not a clue as to whether they’ll be difference makers over these last few weeks. Here’s my recommendations, I’ve attempted to rank them by number of steals they’ll get from now until the season ends…
Please, blog, may I have some more?
To play or not to play, that is the question. When there are home games at Coors, you can be faced with that question. Do I do what it takes to roster guys in games at Coors, or do I do my best to build out a more balanced lineup with more reasonable prices?
Alas, in cash games, you will probably have to have some exposure into the game in Denver. Afterall, it’s likely the highest run total of the night and you always want to have some exposure in that game, whether it’s in Denver, Toronto, New York or wherever.
In tournaments, though, it’s a little more difficult to decide, so I default to wanting to have it all. I make sure I at least have one tourney lineup with players in the Coors game and another one without or with less. Everyone is going to be in on them, so in tourneys it makes a lot of sense to pass, but you don’t want to be too cute and miss out when you could have had some players in that matchup.
Tonight, the Rockies are actually very reasonably priced, and will be well owned. How much you have in your lineup will depend on the value you can find elsewhere. I’ll make some picks below that will highlight some less expensive players that would enable more Coors players and some alternates if that’s not what you want to do.
Again, in cash games, you’ll want some of these guys, but maybe not stacking the whole team. To play or not to play, or do both. It’s the American way.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Please, blog, may I have some more?