You see that old rocking chair in the corner? That’s me, mister reliable.  Made of wood and literally been around these parts since the dawn of time. I may not be the smartest fella, or the fartest smeller either, but I dig baseball.  I get the stats and the hub-bub surrounding the intricacies of deeper stats.  Relaying them in a manner that makes sense on paper and conveying them to you in a way that makes us all put away our Casio calculator watches is my style.  This report covers similarities from what I touch on the regular in my bullpen post, so for the normalcy of life, I will add some of my usual middle relief spice into the streaming world of stolen bases.  Sound good, grand glad we could agree.  Rostering established stolen base guys is all well and good, but is a better feeling when you stream an option and he gets one that wasn’t normally accounted for.  Kinda feels like stealing, in the actually stealing sense and not just in the statistical sense.  The world of streaming swipes is becoming harder and harder as stolen bases are a stat best left for the dudes hitting dingers. The more a pitcher lets players get on base with SB opportunities, the increase for SB’s grows… sometimes. This is my first attempt at this post, so I am starting it my own way. So let’s look at this weeks options to stream stolen bases and the trends for which to follow for streaming ideas.  Cheers!

Every action in baseball has a opposite reaction… sometimes.  I have created a chart that shows who is most prone to SB’s, based on their proclivity to let base runners on (and their tendencies). I have used on-base percentage against, SB opportunities, and the eventual stolen bases to help for low level stream options to look at this week.  (I look a lot at stolen base guys starts at their opposing starting pitcher before it starts with them.)  So the first chart looks at the OBP of the opposite reflection that you want from a pitcher’s standpoint (minimum 30 innings).

Name OBPa SB Opp’s SBa
Wily Peralta .432 83 4
Ubaldo Jimenez .387 74 7
Jeff Locke .381 60 6
Jake Peavy .380 73 1
Colin McHugh .375 73 1
Jon Niese .374 65 0
Adam Wainwright .369 85 0
Jered Weaver .368 63 5
Michael Pineda .367 62 3

The second chart looks at guys who are the better to steal off based on delivery and there overall ineffectiveness to hold baserunners on base.  They aren’t awful at keepiong guys off base, they just suck at keeping them from station to station. (min 20 innings pitched)

Name OBPa SB Opp’s SBa
Noah Syndergaard .269 60 14
Jimmy Nelson .298 67 9
Mat Latos .321 60 8
Felix Hernandez .299 54 7
Hishashi Iwakuma .341 79 7
Mike Pelfrey .400 55 7
Jake Arrieta .230 60 6
Jorge De La Rosa .419 35 6
Jeff Locke .381 6 6

So taking all that data lets see who to attack this week on the waiver wire that may be of use…

Cameron Maybin – Returns from injury this week and looking at the Tigers lineup and he may be the only guy that doesn’t have station to station ability.  23 steals last year and he should be in a prime position in the batting order, hopefully to use his speed.

Mallex Smith – Still getting the CF starts and facing the only guy on this list twice in Jeff Locke. He also gets three games in Philly.  So if you wanna gamble for the weekend, then you have my approval, just wait 20 mins first or you will get cramps.

Michael Taylor – He gets Noah, but that’s not the two-by-two part of the convo.  He doesn’t always play, so risk, meet reward.  The additional games for the week he gets the weaker Justin Nicolino, so a nice flip floped-ness based on line-ups with Mallex works.

Kelby Tomlinson – I mean, who doesn’t have a slight fantasy obsession with ocular challenged baseball players?  My hand is clearly raised.  Panik is back so he gets mix and match like a blind person’s socks.  He gets three at the Padres and faces the Cubs.  If and when Arrieta let’s runners on… look out.

 

  1. knucks says:
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    Just traded my Frazier for Franco/Dyson. Please tell me its Dyson’s to run with in your eye’s, smoke. After I hit accept, I find myself more worried about the threat of Bush than Tolleson ROS

    • jal179 says:
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      @knucks:

      I think we know who Frazier is.

      I’m not so sure we know who either Franco or Dyson will be. I’d of wanted a sure fire closer out of that deal.

      • knucks says:
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        @jal179: Yea figure that’s the general consensus. Not that its gonna change it, but I’m first in Power numbers, last in AVG/Saves with only Britton closing games. My hopes is that I got a guy that closes games similar to the way that Britton does, high ground ball rate. Rolling the Dyson… Gonna cuff him with Matt Bush, though I’m likely outsmarting myself. Will more than likely bite me in the arse. Closers are so hard to pry away in this league. Thanks for the thoughts and good luck ROS jal.

        • jal179 says:
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          @knucks:

          Good call if closers are hard to nab– my league is a weekly h2h 7 x 6 that minimizes saves value.

          Honestly, Franco’s ceiling is massive and could easily outplay Frazier so it’s really a good trade both ways.

          • knucks says:
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            @jal179: I was kinda banking on similar numbers ROS for the 3B guys. Then the upside of the TEX saves. Funny part is that I am up by 5 homers in the league and Yahoo is projecting +5 homers for Frazier over Franco ROS, for whatever that is worth (not much). So I’m now projected to tie the second place guy in the category. I do prefer Frazier over Franco, but gotta make the move that gives me a chance to stay relevant.

            Neglected to mention this, but mine is 12 team roto so its a bit of a different animal than a h2h situation. If I dip so far in the category prior to June, there is pretty much no digging out of it. Really hasn’t been the turnover for the closer roles that I had hoped for when I drafted ONLY Britton. Prior to the draft this year, it was voted to rid fastest finger adds (understandable) in favor of overnight waivers this year. That’s been killing me as far as SAGNOF thus far. Dyson had been owned for quite some time.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @knucks: I think it’s a good deal for you. Dyson has shown to be the best pitcher and the Rangers are realizing that. Tolly prolly gets some motivational pitch well moments for the save here and there, but it should be Dyson

  2. And Now the Jon Lovitz Dancers! says:
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    16 team h2h with holds. which 3 out of these:
    kelley/bearclaw (starting to get hit, and behind phelps)/hudson/maurer/diekman/j.peralta (starting to get hit, his FIP is gross)/vincent.
    i have bearclaw/hudson currently. except vincent i have these ranked by FIP. kelley is so much better it’s not close, can’t think he’s not one of the 3 i should have.

  3. Noam says:
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    Jose Peraza might be an interesting play while he’s up

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Noam: meh, maybe but he needs constant at bats and I don’t think the Reds give him yet

  4. jal179 says:
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    in a 10 teamer weekly h2h redraft 7 x 6 standard cats + hits, OPS and QS, how much do closers get devalued in that format?

    I need SP help and am not sure what Chapman or Rondon could fetch.

    Thoughts?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @jal179: slightly, but you have the guy who is going to give you 100 k’s and a 40 save closer. I would be asking for someone steady and in the top 20 range of sp high end of Cueto and low end of someone like a struggling SP like Felix? Always ask for the moon and let them come back and then settle in the middle

      • jal179 says:
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        @Smokey:

        Only YOU can prevent fantasy fire sales! Good call Smokey.

        Our 10 teamer h2h redraft has really deep pitching rosters averaging 8 to 9 starters so the wire is VERY thin. Add in Ws, QS and Ks, starters are very hard to come by it seems.

        Chapman + Dyson for Salazar seem close? Chapman + Dyson for Darvish close?

  5. bob says:
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    Drop May for Boxberger?

    • knucks says:
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      @bob: Yea I would def do this. They said Box’s job when he’s back, which is soon. Twins can’t get to the 9th with a lead, plus it still seems to be Jepsen after May’s weekend, with Perkins looming eventually.

  6. Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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    net saves and holds, peralta getting hit lately and benoit back, grab any of benoit, bearclaw, salas, estevez over him?

  7. John says:
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    net saves and holds, peralta getting hit lately.

  8. What's a Drexl? says:
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    2 tales of tolleson. at least in an AL only and an espn league i’ve had dyson for a while now (holds and saves in those), and some others. but like perkins/cishek last year tolleson was right in that nice cheap saves area so i have him in a lot of spots
    1. 12 teamer with holds, and net saves separately, and K/BB, relief wins and losses and OBPA added i have f-rod, allen, betances, kelley , and alas tolleson. wait it out on tolleson, or grab one of these: the badly lately may (but great before that and still awesome K rate), jumbo D, cingrani, storen, brach, d.hernandez, diekman, salas, castro (back from DL soon), maurer, buchter, estevez? 7 moves per week.

    2. 14 team roto with K’s, BB’s, no ratios stats, holds, saves, have all of: siegrist/storen/colome/allen/j.peralta/tolleson/maurer. drop tolleson and/or j.peralta for which of: salas, estevez, castro, buchter, cedeno, shaw, may?

  9. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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    20 team dynasty with 7 RP slots, having traded away closers for other good values i’ve now gone from 4 with about a month to go last year to none now. start 7 RP, holds, K/9. the kind of league where daily you’re dropping delabar for b.wood since he played in a later inning and are very happy to get jumbo diaz.
    giles/tolleson/diekman/salas/j.peralta/cedeno/jumbo D
    1. drop j.peralta for bedrosian? clearly can’t drop tolleson being dynasty and this team is TEX based, have kela on DL (he’ll probably obtain better value now too later)

    for NL only (saves only):
    2. ohlendork or grab jumbo D? ohlendork still played in later inning and did better than cingrani. can probably wait for first time i see jumbo in later inning than ohlendork though. already have jeffress and w.smith, so got MIL locked up. 10 team league.

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