Today concludes the fantasy baseball sleepers‘ portion of our program. Like the 3rd basemen to target, 2nd basemen to target or outfielders to target, this post is necessary. You need to target the right names at the end of the draft for starters. Last year’s starters to target post included Kodai Senga, Sonny Gray, Justin Steele, Grayson Rodriguez and Patrick Sandoval, and Sandoval is the last time I ever trust an Angels pitcher. All of those starters, except Sandoval, have moved up ranks this year with one making the jump to my top 20 starters, until Senga was hurt, and Grayson and Steele just missed in the top 40 starters. As I always say, starters are available later. As with other target posts, these guys are being drafted after the top 200 overall. Also, all Steamer hitter projections are updated just about every day (mostly small adjustments), and all 2024 fantasy baseball rankings are updated daily until the (real) start of the season next week. Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2024 fantasy baseball:
PSYCHE! The first week’s Buy/Sell is already available for Patreon members. It will be released all year early for Patreons, so if people are getting a jump on you, it’s because they paid the $10. Anyway, the starters to target:
Braxton Garrett (NFBC 206, ESPN 208, Yahoo 272) Already gave you my Braxton Garrett sleeper, and, because he’s so affordable, I’m still in on him, but I did hate hearing that he had general soreness in his shoulder. It was early in camp, and there’s no reason to think it’s the end of him; he is already throwing to hitters. Staying positive!
A.J. Puk (NFBC 226, ESPN 232, Yahoo 356) Possibly the only positive thing coming out of the Marlins’ camp, unless you consider Jazz has avoided running into any walls so far. Marlins seem to have one starter every year break out and it’s always “supposed to be Max Meyer or Edward Cabrera and it’s never Max Meyer or Edward Cabrera.” Puk has potential to have a 12+ K/9 and decent command in relief. As a starter? Well, it’s late, and it’s fine to take a flyer, but he does seem to be moving up draft boards out of range, even though 120 IP feels like the top-side of his projections. He was also added into the top 80 starters. Also, added into the pitchers pairings tool for your weekend drafts.
Shane Baz (NFBC 236, ESPN 261, Yahoo 322) Rays are talking about slow-rolling Baz, which makes sense since (almost stutterer!) he’s returning from Tommy John. By the by, I just thought of someone doing anything with Tommy John, the former MLB pitcher. “You’re golfing with Tommy John? Shouldn’t you wait 14-18 months?” Just for the hassle everyone has to deal with to hang out with Tommy it’s prolly cost him friendships. “Sorry, man, I can’t go to the movies with you. I said I’m going to ‘Zone of Interest with Tommy John’ and they keep saying I should be doing long tossing. It’s just too much.” Put Tommy John in the Hall of Fame just for the hassle this has caused him in his personal life!
Nathan Eovaldi (NFBC 203, ESPN 251) Finally, a young, upsidey, sexy–Okay that’s a lie. Clearly. No one said you have to do only high, upside picks after pick 200. See no reason why Eovaldi can’t repeat last year’s season. Yes, the one where he missed all but 26 1/13 IP in the 2nd half, when he still ended up as the 35th best starter last year on the Player Rater. Eovaldi is basically free money in drafts. That’s not exciting enough for you? Aw, poor baby needs fireworks with every pick.
Brandon Pfaadt (NFBC 212, ESPN 229) Fantasy baseball (maybe other fantasy sports, I don’t know) is funny because I think people know instinctually that players don’t always hit the ground running. They might need a bit of time to find their footing. Also, if a guy doesn’t hit the ground running and needs time to find his footing? Oh, he’s written off immediately. After having great minor league numbers, Pfaadt came up with the Dbags and had a 9.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. Oh, wait, that’s Max Scherzer’s first full season numbers. Pfaadt actually went 8.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. Pfaadt had a 10.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in AAA, and there’s no reason why he can’t continue to get better.
Aaron Civale (NFBC 214, ESPN 285, Yahoo 247) Off the top of my head, Civale was the unluckiest pitcher last year. I say ‘off top of head’ because I’m legitimately just “thinking” about it and not actually “researching” it. Also, Coolwhip gave you his Aaron Civale sleeper.
Brayan Bello (NFBC 229, ESPN unranked, Yahoo 273) This is a comment about Pfaadt too (and a lot of other guys later like Gavin Stone). I think we should take pitching prospects, forget them for 18 months, then learn about them. How you do this in practice? I don’t know. Maybe you ignore everything written about them for a year plus. Maybe you do a tequila shot every time you watch them pitch. By the 75th pitch/shot, you should forget.
Charlie Morton (NFBC 229, ESPN 220, Yahoo 215) Similar story to Eovaldi, except Morton was 38th on the Player Rater last year for starters, and Morton, while old, I think can actually get better this year vs. last year.
Yusei Kikuchi (NFBC 245, ESPN unranked, Yahoo 327) Third verse same as the Morton and Eovaldi’s verses. Yusei was already a top 40 starter last year, can he repeat? No, he could actually be better. Here’s a fun exercise, who was better last year: Yusei, Morton and Eovaldi or Bobby Miller? Not Miller. Who was better last year: Yusei, Morton and Eovaldi or Skubal? Not Skubal. Who was better last year: Yusei, Morton and Eovaldi or Eury Perez? Well, you get the picture/pitcher. The fun, young, upside starter? Not always as good as you think.
Cristopher Sanchez (NFBC 248, ESPN unranked, Yahoo 293) The balanced schedule makes this less of a reason to celebrate, but Phils starters have the Braves in their division, then no one. Though, I just thought about other NL divisions and they’re all kinda stacked with less-than-stacked teams. It’s the Phils, Dodgers, Braves and Reds as the only scary hitting teams in the NL. There’s more threatening hitting teams in just the AL East. Anyhoo! Cristopher Sanchez seemed to unlock another level in his command, and any starter who potentially brings 1.5 BB/9 or lower is worthwhile.
Kutter Crawford (NFBC 270, ESPN unranked, Yahoo 222) Also, already gave you my Kutter Crawford sleeper. By the by, I write my sleepers in October/November of last year. It’s funny how predictable other sites/people are with where they draft people. How did I know Kutter would be a sleeper five months before we were drafting? You can say lucky guess; I wouldn’t agree.
Seth Lugo (NFBC 268, ESPN unranked, Yahoo 361) Meh, I hear ya, what a boring guy to target. Yeah, totally, he’s only a 3.50 ERA/1.17 WHIP in 641 innings in his career. Boring! Oh, it’s his strikeouts? Yeah, a 9.1 K/9 career rate. Borrrrrrring! Oh, he’s on a boring team? Yeah, not like that Cole Ragans guy. Am I saying Seth Lugo will be better for fantasy than Cole Ragans? Yes, over-the-internet friend, that is what I’m saying.
MacKenzie Gore (NFBC 296, ESPN unranked, Yahoo 250) Already gave you my MacKenzie Gore sleeper. Also, there’s about another 25 starters to draft after 200th overall. It’s nuts how many starters are going after 200th overall this year. I’m not saying to do this, but if you made a pitching staff of only guys in this post, you prolly would be fine. You can’t say that for any other position. If you made an outfield from players after pick 200? Woof daddy. Don’t tell any of your competitors this they might smarten up.
Tylor Megill (NFBC 448, ESPN unranked, Yahoo unranked) Do I love Megill? I-gill, indeed. Do I also think the Mets’ touch turns everything into a rancid, injured poop emoji? It’s not a coincidence!
Gavin Stone (NFBC 424, ESPN 257, Yahoo 347) I’m old enough to remember when everyone wanted to draft Gavin Stone, because I’m older than a year old.
Louie Varland (NFBC 304, ESPN 279, Yahoo 256) I love Varland. He’s in the tier of top 80 starters where at least three guys break out every year. So, don’t take this the wrong way, but there’s also ten starters in that tier that are at least a year away. This goes back to what I was saying in Kikuchi’s blurb. Safe vets outperform young sexy arms so many times. Even when guys like Varland break out, it’s usually so they’re over-drafted next year, but not totally worth it, like Eury before his injury.
