What an eventful SAGNOF (Saves Ain’t Got No Face) fantasy baseball week it was.  Shawn Tolleson, who was originally a high priority SAGNOF Special recommendation two weeks ago, now looks to be in a position to steal some saves from Neftali Feliz or possibly take the job outright.  Feliz is in serious trouble and it will probably be either Shawn Tolleson or Keone Kela that takes over if Feliz is in fact removed.  Right now the word is that Rangers manager Jeff Bannister is going to use whoever he fancies on any particular day to close out games and that leaves the door open for just about anyone, including Feliz.  I find it hard to believe that anyone other than Tolleson is capable of running away with the closer role so he’s my heavy favorite.  If I’m wrong, call me bad names, but try to make it funny at least.

Who else is on shaky ground?  Well, Steve Cishek was, right up until he lost his job to A.J. Ramos last Monday.  But give Ramos some credit.  It was originally declared to be a closer by committee situation but Ramos appears to have run away with the job and all is right in the world.  That’s my way of saying Ramos was the most deserving, even though last week I recommended both he and Mike Dunn. Look, I sort of have to go with what’s being reported along with the usage patterns of the players and both of those, as well as the manager’s remarks upon removing Cishek, indicated that Mike Dunn had a chance.  But technically, I preferred Ramos from the start.  It’s my belief that John Axford will not hold the closer role all year.  Somehow Axford has only pitched 7 (seven) innings so far this year and he’s sporting a 7:4 K:BB ratio and 10.0% K-BB%.  That’s not going to fly in Colorado.  Well, something is going to eventually fly, and that something is going to fly several rows deep.  Rafael Betancourt, on the other hand, has been pretty much the opposite: 14 innings, 17:2 K:BB and a wonderful 26.8 K-BB%.  Right now, at least statistics wise, he’s looking a lot like his 2012 self when he had a 57:12 K:BB ratio.

A lot of goings on in the “injured closer returns to claim job” category.  Kenley Jansen has returned and is already reinstated as the closer for the DodgersYimi Garcia, also of the Dodgers, has had a rough time recently and has been dropped in some leagues.  I just put in a waiver claim for him in one league, so that’s how I feel about him.  He’s amassed 29(!!!) strikeouts in 17.1 innings while walking just 4 batters.  To quote Bill Belichick (because it’s always football season) “I mean, damn.”  Jake McGee has returned and looks to be, at the very least, in a time share with Brad Boxberger.  However, Boxberger is a player that should be owned whether or not he is currently getting any save opportunities because his skills are that good.  Sean Doolittle is out rehabbing and will likely be back within two weeks.  With Tyler Clippard there I expect it might be some sort of time share but in any case now would probably be the time to grab Doolittle where he’s available, even if you have no DL slot open.

This week’s SAGNOF middle reliever recommendations for future Saves: Shawn Tolleson where still available, otherwise consider Rafael Betancourt at least until LaTroy Hawkins comes back and further muddles up the situation.

 

How about a recommendation for Stolen Bases?  Okay.

Freddy Galvis.  That’s a sentence I just wrote and I want to write it again.  Freddy Galvis.  Why?  He has 4 stolen bases this year.  Ok, so he doesn’t really project as much of a base stealer and he hasn’t done it at all in the majors until this year.  However, the last two times he had 500+ PAs across various levels of the minors he managed 15 steals in 2010 and 23 in 2011.  I don’t think there’s any way you want to pick up Galvis in a 12-team or shallower league, but he does deserve consideration for deeper leagues (and mostly I try to throw out at least one new name every week and it’s slim pickings!).  He’ll probably only steal 10 or so more bases while hitting about .250.  He’s the poor man’s Jose Iglesias.  Speaking of Iglesias, I’m surprised he is only owned in 47% of RCLs, he’s a decent add as well but just like Galvis, don’t expect more than 10 SBs ROS (rest of season).

Last week I wrote some things about Delino DeShields Jr. that were proven to be way off.  Leonys Martin returned and DeShields has stayed in the lineup.  That doesn’t mean he will be there for the whole season but because we are generally talking about your last roster spot, we are only concerned with what’s happening now.  So yeah, go ahead and start him whenever he’s in the lineup.  He has elite speed.  However, he doesn’t really profile as a great prospect, he’s just a guy with a lot of speed and a pretty mediocre hit tool.  He only hit .236 in 507 plate appearances for the Astros AA team last year (though he hit .317 in A+ in 2013) and a truly good hitting prospect at that age ought to be able to destroy AA to the tune of .320 or better.  So on the one hand, sure he’s highly ownable for now, on the other hand he comes at a significant risk to AVG and the risk of losing playing time.

Steven Souza is slumping.  Well, that’s what some might say.  I don’t really like to refer to it as a slump when there are reasons to suspect it won’t get better.  Souza’s problem is he’s striking out way too much.  Looking at ZiPS and Steamer projections for him, I actually believe the ZiPS 31.6 K% ROS projection more than the Steamer 26.6% one.  Look for him to hit in the .215 to .240 range going forward unless he starts getting really lucky with BABIP.  Or to look at it another way, his current .223 AVG is about right.  The reason I mention this is because I think if he can put together a good couple of days I would consider him a good sell high candidate, in part because he’s not going to hit for a high average, but mostly because of what it means for Souza if he doesn’t hit for a high average: The risk of demotion or reduced playing time.  He was one of my highest recommendations this preseason so I really do want him to succeed but right now I feel the risk has actually gone up from the level it was at in the preseason.

This weeks SAGNOF (Steals Ain’t Got No Face edition) recommendations: Jose Iglesias, Delino DeShields, and (for deeper leagues) Freddy Galvis.  Recommendations from previous weeks:  Billy Burns, Kevin Pillar, Ender Inciarte, Shane Victorino, Adam Eaton, and Odubel Herrera.  And it’s time to stash Carlos Correa.

 

 

 
  1. dem ribbies says:
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    10 teamer, shallow rosters. RPs on the wire include:

    Ramos
    Axford
    Tolleson
    Wade Davis (this is a Saves only league)

    I own Holland, Grilli and am currently running an RP eligible starter out of RP3. Of those named above, who would you pickup?

    • dem ribbies says:
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      @dem ribbies: PS. former Cishek owner. Felt compelled to pickup Ramos, but the mojo in Miami is so off. Not many opportunities, all that could change pretty quickly tho.

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @dem ribbies: Save opportunities are so hard to predict. I guess Ramos over Davis by a slight margin, so I agree with your decision. Nice job snagging Grilli. He’s walked a little too many so far this year but his K rate is so good, his WHIP and ERA will come down.

  2. Scott says:
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    Galvis is playing at Coors as well, and since he’s hot right now, likely to play through the series.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Scott: Brandon Crawford is a (non-SAGNOF) player I like that will be heading there this week after PHI and one of the games is a double header.

  3. Threnton says:
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    Tolleson or Betancourt? Dropping Jim Johnson for one of them.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Threnton: Good move… Tolleson is more right now for Saves than Betancourt and it’s a toss up as far as long term, so go Tolleson.

      • Threnton says:
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        @RotoLance: Thanks!

  4. Five-On-One says:
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    I own Axford, Tolleson, McGee and Ziegler. Can you rank them? Both for the next week or two, as well as for ROS? Thanks in advance.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Five-On-One: Yeah so Addison Reed is also out and I totally forgot to write about it. Whoops. Your question just reminded me. I don’t really see a whole lot in that Arizona pen though. Onto your question…

      Current: McGee > Axford = Tolleson > Ziegler
      ROS: McGee > Tolleson > Ziegler > Axford

      I’m not just ranking Saves, I’m ranking their overall contribution. Even though Ziegler’s nothing special I still think he could amass just as many saves ROS as Axford. Ziegler’s K rate and K:BB are really ugly though, at least he doesn’t call Denver home.

      • Five-On-One says:
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        @RotoLance: Thanks for the response. If I am just looking for saves (SAGNOF, y’know?), is McGee (in the short-term) worth less than Ax and Ziegs because he is in a job share (at best – Box may still have the job), while those two seem to have the job (at least for now)?

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @Five-On-One: I know SAGNOF, but I assume in your league ERA, WHIP and K contributions matter as well. I think the point of SAGNOF is more to make sure you don’t over pay for guys like Addison Reed just because they have a job when there are going to be several players who come out of nowhere to claim a job and they can be had for free.

          Ranked just according to saves:
          Current: Axford > McGee > Tolleson > Ziegler
          ROS: McGee > Tolleson > Axford > Ziegler, I guess, but there are so many variables so I hate trying to predict for Saves.

          So yeah I agree with your point with respect to Saves and right now. But there’s a huge difference between a reliever with a 2.00 ERA and one with a 3.50 ERA as far as overall value. Depending on how many innings your team is going to have and what your target ERA is, it might be just as big as the difference (to your team ERA) between a starter with a 3.00 ERA as opposed to a starter with a 3.50 ERA.

          As a for instance, according to the Rudy ROS Player Rater Aroldis Chapman is worth $7.1 just for his contribution in ERA, WHIP and K and Axford is worth -$0.8 for just those three. That’s a huge difference. So I really think there is some folly in just playing for Saves.

          That said, your group of 4 relievers is a pretty good SAGNOF bunch but I do think Axford’s and Ziegler’s contribution pretty much start and end with saves. Tolleson hasn’t been great in ERA and WHIP but I find his K:BB very encouraging. I hope all of this made sense. Good luck.

          • Five-On-One says:
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            @RotoLance: Thanks again. And I appreciate the concerns with the other categories. I heartily subscribe to Grey’s SAGNOF approach (and, before that, Matty Berry’s ‘never pay for saves’ teachings. Did I just compare in a non-negative way the constantly mocked Berry (on this site, anyway) and the FML himself? Quick delete this post and ban me from the site.) With this approach, I came out of my auction with Mejia (with Parnell as my handcuff) and Peralta (3 saves). I missed Familia (bummer!) but grabbed Castro (2 Saves) and Axford (1, so far) of the waiver wire. Now I have also grabbed Ziegs and Tolleson, and traded an extra OF for McGee. Castro did more damage to my ratios than his 2 saves are worth, so I am leary of Ziegs and Axford, but still need saves. Thanks again for the advice and my humblest apologies to the boss for Berry reference without the obligatory slam.

            • RotoLance

              RotoLance says:
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              @Five-On-One: Yeah I totally agree with the SavesAGNOF concept I just think that I act upon it a little differently. To me, if an elite closer is going at the right price, I’m fine with that. I don’t view it as paying for the Saves, I view it as paying for the ERA/WHIP/K that come with it. To me that ‘right price’ guy was Kenley Jansen, well in one of my leagues anyway. Last year it was Aroldis Chapman who I owned in both leagues last year (one drafted before injury one after). What I don’t like is paying for guys that have been mediocre in ERA/WHIP/K yet have managed to hold down their closer job for a couple years then their price goes up because of the previous Save consistency. Guys that are expected to be mediocre in ERA/WHIP/K I devalue. And generally I _don’t_ end up owning elite level closers.

              As far as next in line players, their ERA/WHIP/K are actually more important because I think those act as good predictors as to whether they can hold the job if they ever get the job. Technically we need to even dig past the roto stats to stats like K-BB% and FIP/xFIP because those are better predictors of future ERA/WHIP performance and it’s ultimately the ERA performance that will decide whether a closer keeps his job. That’s why I rank Tolleson above the other guys ROS. I think he has just enough skill to keep the job, should it actually become his full time (and it helps that the TEX bullpen is weak).

  5. Adam says:
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    Would u trade dee Gordon straight up for Marte??

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Adam: Yes, assuming you have or can get a respectable middle infielder to replace Gordon I think you have to. Marte’s good start a bit more legit and he was projected better from the get go.

  6. Gardy says:
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    In 14 team H2H weekly points league my RP starters are Jansen, Ramos, and Cecil. Wondering if I should add a 4th RP or perhaps consider a swap.

    There are some intriguing names on wire including Doolittle, McGee, Tolleson (all free agents) and Jesse Chavez who is RP eligible and clears waivers later this week. Yimi Garcia clears tonight.

    Who should I aim to add? And should I drop Cecil or Ramos or lose a bench bat instead? My bench includes Lind (now backing up Belt) and either Choo or Fowler (taking turns starting while Puig is sidelined)

    In our scoring system Saves (8) Wins (10) QS (5) Holds (4) K (2) IP (2) BB (-1) ER (-1) L (-5) BS (-4)

    Thanks

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Gardy: Wow, those settings have to favor SP, right? So if you put a SP+RP eligible player in your RP slot = winning? As far as bench bats vs more pitching, it should be easy to calculate, if you can just figure out the expected number of times the bench hitter will be in your lineup each week, multiply that by expected points per game and compare that to the average output of a pitcher in a week, you’ve got a fair comparison. Of course if it’s a tie or close the advantage should go to the hitter because he’s also backing up a slot so you don’t have to go to FA in case of injury or whatever.

  7. slimbo says:
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    Drop yimi garcia for Tolleson in a saves and holds league?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @slimbo: Do you mean it’s Saves + Holds or that Holds is it’s own category?

      • slimbo says:
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        @RotoLance:

        1 cat. Saves and holds together

        Sry for the confusion

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @slimbo: You could, I think it’s a close call. I haven’t really looked at how reliably Yimi is getting holds. Tolleson, if he doesn’t end up getting 20+ Saves should end up getting holds, but probably not as many as Yimi because they won’t win as many games. I think it mostly comes down to skills here, so I would probably favor Yimi. Like I said, his recent struggles don’t really deter me because you look and his peripherals are golden.

          • slimbo says:
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            @RotoLance:

            I guess I’ll keep yimi for now as a bench rp…unless any of these guys are worth picking up

            Crawford aoki span, brad miller or Jason hammel

            What you think?

            • RotoLance

              RotoLance says:
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              @slimbo: I think those are all pretty good players. I actually like Hammel but I guess it just depends on whether you need SP or RP more. Also, why do you say ‘as a bench rp’, is it a weekly lock league? I guess it doesn’t matter I’m not sure if that changes anything, it’s been so long since I’ve played in a weekly lock league.

              • Bull in a Chinese Restaurant says:
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                @RotoLance: you’re probably still end up being right about yimi getting more SV+ H to Tolleson, but LAD bullpen has a LOT of guys they use for holds too (paco/hatcher/liberatore/baez at least), and at TEX Tolleson is their best RP, so he’ll probably be involved nearly every hold or save opp. In a league like that I might go about trying to move Yimi + hitter for slightly better hitter and add tolleson after, but that must not be a large league if tolleson was even available in.

  8. Luvdarooks says:
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    is aj ramos too much to give up at this point in a very deep nl league FOR PERAZA
    (atlanta) where I already have paplebaum-ziegler-storen-giles?

    I see Jace Peterson going to third and peraza manning 2B by july

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Luvdarooks: How certain are we about Peraza in July, I think I’ve heard rumblings of the Jace to 3rd thing you are talking about but that’s all I have seen so far (doesn’t mean it’s not true but I haven’t noticed it yet). I would much rather own Ramos than Ziegler so if you could somehow trade Ziegler for Peraza, maybe after Ziegler notches a Save? Otherwise, I’m wondering if July is too far away to be making that (Ramos for Peraza) move?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Luvdarooks: You might take a look at Wilmer Difo, promoted from AA by the Nationals. I don’t think he’s going to be starting everyday so I”m not really sure what you can do with him, depends on your league settings, etc as to whether he’s worth picking up, even in NL only.

  9. luvdarooks says:
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    swihart or reamulto or mCcann(det) for ROY in a 5×5

    • luvdarooks says:
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      oops mccann is not available

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @luvdarooks: Pretty even, so whichever one you think is least likely to be demoted. Deep league I take it?

        • Bull in a Chinese Restaurant says:
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          @RotoLance: pretty deep if anybody is confused enough to think mccann at DET is better than either realmuto/swihart. swihart has the upside there, but realmuto’s been better so far.

  10. luvdarooks says:
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    Want to get AJ Ramos in there for this week-
    have to bench ONE Burnett, coles(MYM) hamels (NATS)syndergard (PITT) keeping wacha and phelps for thier two starts
    leaning twoards syndergrd?
    whatchathink?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @luvdarooks: That’s a good group of pitchers. I love me some Syndergaard. I guess that because it’s this close it depends on who Burnett and Syndergaard are starting against because both teams have some good SPs that they might have to face off against.

  11. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    I’m seeing now that Nationals have promoted speedster Wilmer Difo from AA. He started the 2015 season in A+ ball so he’s not exactly the most seasoned of MiLBers. He probably won’t play much, 2-4 times per week maybe.

  12. Threnton says:
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    Picked up Tolleson and Ziegler and of course the save chances are going to Keone Kela and Enrique Burgos

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Threnton: Kela pitched in the 6th tonight when they were down 2-4 so I don’t actually know what you are referring to on that one. As far as Arizona I don’t particularly like Ziegler or anyone else right now in that bullpen. I’ll have to do some research on Burgos.

      • Bull in a Chinese Restaurant says:
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        @RotoLance: kela has no save opp’s to speak of since feliz’s demotion. he blew a hold on may 16th.

      • Threnton says:
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        @RotoLance: I wasn’t getting mad at you. As for Kela, I thought I read somewhere he was the favorite for saves, my bad.

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @Threnton: Ha! You didn’t bother me at all sorry if my tone implied you did. I should also clarify that Ziegler may still very well be the best bet for saves on Arizona but I’m just not a big fan of anyone there. My interest is so low I didn’t even bother to look in any of my 12 team leagues to see if Ziegler or Burgos were available. But certainly they are both ownable right now.

          I’m hoping all the Tolleson owners will end up happy.

  13. Bull in a Chinese Restaurant says:
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    wasn’t souza projected to hit around .230ish preseason too though?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Bull in a Chinese Restaurant: .245 according to Steamer/Razzball projections that I saved to spreadsheet on March 24th. We also have to realize that there is more volatility in a prospects projections. I think younger prospects probably have a greater chance than most other players at outperforming their projections. Souza is not a young prospect, he recently turned 26.

      There is a difference between .245 and .225 as far as fantasy value but it’s not that big. Like I said, the main risk is demotion or lost playing time.

      Thanks for reading again.

  14. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    Gregerson just had to be lifted for Neshek after he allowed 2H 2BB 2ER pitching in a non save situation because Houston scored in the bottom of the 8th. Neshek recorded the save. Neshek is a solid reliever, possibly be better than Gregerson. There could be something here but because HOU is a smart organization so I wouldn’t think they will make a rash decision. Gregerson owned a 14:3 K:BB coming into this game so now it’s 14:5.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @RotoLance: “Hinch said Gregerson will likely not be available tomorrow because of his recent workload. “He’s going to be fine,” he said.” According to Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart.

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