It’s been a busy week for SAGNOF (Steals/Saves Ain’t Got No Face) as we’ve seen the demotion of one closer (Miguel Castro), the injury of another (Adam Ottavino) and we’ve had some demotions and call-ups of base stealing prospects. Firstly, I just want to brag a little bit because I told you to pick up Jake Marisnick.  Okay, so I called him Jake Marsinick at first, but hey, let’s not be picky here.  The fact is, I first recommended Jake Marsinick, or whatever his name is, three weeks ago here.  That was back when he had one home run and two stolen bases.  Since then, he’s basically gone one to destroy MLB pitching.  Well anyway, hopefully this will help make up for any calls I’ve gotten wrong over the past few weeks… (and truthfully, I would consider Marisnick a good sell high right now, maybe you can get Brandon Moss in return if you need power).

Billy Burns is back up with the big club and he comes with a 50 stolen bases type of ceiling.  He has started two games in a row, batting leadoff in both of them.  Right now it looks like he will in fact be playing most days because Craig Gentry hasn’t hit at all and Cody Ross was sent to the minors.  Michael Taylor is back as well and if you want a player that is similar to Marisnick have at him.

Dalton Pompey was recently sent down and this gives Kevin Pillar a slight boost in the form of a near guarantee for playing time.  I thought Pompey would be fine.  I liked him a lot this year but sometimes it just doesn’t work out. “It” being batting average on balls in play (BABIP).  In other words, death by BABIP.  I’ve written about Kevin Pillar already and he was a recommended addition for those in need of more stolen bases for two weeks prior to this.

Jung Ho Kang is a player with some power and some speed and he’s been given some starts at third base with the return of Jordy Mercer to shorstop.  He’s a tough guy to get a read on projections wise because he’s the first position player to come over from Korea, but think 20/15ish if given a full season, which is to say there’s a ton of potential in that bat.

Prospecting for base stealers:  Here’s some minor league speedsters (and Billy Burns) ranked by rest of season value and I’ve also provided a best guess at their HR/SB/AVG production based on a full season worth of stats and using Steamer projections to guide me:  Rusney Castillo (18/20/.275), Billy Burns (2/36/.240),  Carlos Correa (15/22/.250), Francisco Lindor (10/23/.240), Jose Peraza (1/40/.250), Byron Buxton (10/30/.245).  That said, by far the best base stealers of the group are Burns, Buxton and Peraza.  I’m not trying to say Carlos Correa is anywhere near being called up, I just happen to think he is so good that if he were called up he might just be the most valuable player on this list because he can do it all (power, speed, average) and plays shortstop.  When he is fully developed he’s thought to be more of a power and average guy than speed but he stole 20 bases in MiLB last year in only 62 games.  Lindor and Peraza might only barely be better than Odubel Herrera right now so why stash them if you could have him?  See Mike’s weekly prospects rankings columns for better rankings than I’ve provided.

SAGNOF Speed recommendations in the order I would own them, with those from previous weeks included: Odubel Herrera, Kevin Pillar, Billy Burns, Ender Inciarte and Michael Taylor.  Keep your eye on Jung Ho Kang or pick him, Rajai Davis or Anythony Gose up if you don’t mind that they’re part time.  If you want to stash a prospect, it’s definitely Castillo first, everyone else a distant second. The prospect situations I’d monitor the most closely are Jace Peterson/Peraza in Atlanta because it’s possible they turn to Peraza in a month or so and also lend your ear to what the Astros are doing with Marwin Gonzalez and Joathan Villar because speculation has begun that we could see Correa this year.  The previously recommended Angel Pagan, Nori Aoki and Marisnick are off the list of recommendations… because they’ve been added nearly everywhere already.

 

Onto the arms:  Brett Cecil has claimed the closer role back from Miguel Castro which is something I thought was likely to happen from the start, but if I would have known it would have happened so quickly I would have given a number higher than “5” for Cecil’s “situation rating” last week.  Cecil hasn’t been very good but Castro had become unbearable.  Looking at how many hits he has allowed I can see Castro’s been killed by BABIP but he could have helped himself out with more Ks and less BBs.  Going forward, I really don’t trust Cecil to keep the job the entire season but that’s not to say it can’t happen.  Roberto Osuna is the most ownable player in that bullpen other than Cecil but it’s a situation you need to monitor if you are desperate for saves because it could instead be Aaron Loup if Cecil falters.

Earlier in the week John Axford claimed the closer role from Adam Ottavino due to injury, an injury we know very little about at this point.  I think Axford will have the job for at least 3 more weeks but it’s really hard to tell how much longer than that it might be because the information related to the injury is simply not out there at this time.  It could easily turn out to be 3 months.  On the one hand Axford barely possesses the skill to keep the role but on the other hand no one else in Colorado is better.

Eventually a team will sign Rafael Soriano and it will most likely be as a closer.  Holding Soriano isn’t the worse thing to do right now.  At least he’s not hurting your ERA and WHIP as many of these lower ranked players will.  Of course his “5” in skills rating below isn’t helping you at all until he gets a job but who’s more likely to end up with 15+ saves this year, Soriano or a random set up man?  With Greg Holland‘s return imminent Wade Davis will be resuming his setup duties very soon and the same could go for Jake McGee/Brandon Boxberger but that situation might be more of a time share.

Joel Peralta and Joaquin Benoit have joined the ungrateful dead arms.  Seriously, both are suffering from cases of “dead arm”.  I’m certain Peralta has been dropped in most leagues by now, as he should be.  Until Kenley Jansen comes back it will probably be closer by committee between Chris Hatcher and Yimi Garcia.  Benoit should be dropped as well, at least for the short term.  Who wants a setup man with a dead arm? Oh, and I guess this puts Kevin Quackenbush back on the map, something many of you may be pleased about.

And speaking of dead arms, Steve Cishek and Mark Melancon are having velocity issues.  Of the two I’m more worried about Melancon and he also has the more clear cut next in line player in the form of Tony WatsonA.J. Ramos figures to be the next in line for Cishek and he’s been stellar but I’m not convinced of his reduced walk rate yet.  Of the two Ramos is the one that’s not 100% owned in RCLs so he’s the one I recommend you take a look at right now.  Go get him if you are in need of saves.  Shawn Tolleson owns 5.40 ERA to go with a 14:2 K:BB which doesn’t quite add up.  Oh and he’s probably the next in line behind struggling Neftali Feliz.  He’s my next recommendation if Ramos isn’t available and I think he might have just enough skill to hold down the role should the opportunity arise.

Now here’s the updated next in line rankings.  I’ve included the interim closers that won’t have the closing job for much longer because some are very much worth owning after the incumbent returns and I’ve also included some players that aren’t exactly next in line but might be worth owning in deeper leagues.  The number before the slash represents the player’s (heavily projections based) skill level and the number after the slash represents the player’s situation.  I take into account the quality and durability of the closer, and the amount of competition for the closer job, for example, when applying the situation rating.  Or just simply view the situation rating as the likelihood of getting future saves.  The more desperate you are for saves the more weight you should give to the situation rating.  For the temporary closers I’ve ranked them as if they no longer have the job.  Think of it as how valuable they’ll be once the closer returns to health.

 

  1. Brad Boxberger TB (current closer for injured Jake McGee) 9/5
  2. Wade Davis KC (current closer for injured Greg Holland) 9/4
  3. Tony Watson PIT (Mark Melancon) 7/6
  4. Dellin Betances NYA (Andrew Miller) 8/4
  5. AJ Ramos MIA (Steve Cishek) 5/6
  6. Ken Giles PHI (Jonathan Papelbon) 7/4
  7. Jordan Walden STL (Trevor Rosenthal) 6/5
  8. Chris Hatcher LAD (current committee for injured Kenley Jansen) 5/5
  9. Joe Smith LAA (Huston Street) 5/5
  10. Sergio Romo SF (Santiago Casilla) 6/4
  11. Pedro Strop CHC (Hector Rondon) 6/4
  12. Danny Farquhar SEA (Fernando Rodney) 7/3
  13. Yimi Garcia LAD (current committee for injured Kenley Jansen) 6/3
  14. Shawn Tolleson TEX (Neftali Feliz) 4/5
  15. Darren O’Day BAL (Zach Britton) 6/3
  16. Carlos Torres NYM (Jeurys Familia) 6/2
  17. Kelvin Herrera KC (Wade Davis) 7/1
  18. Junichi Tazawa BOS (Koji Uehara) 6/2
  19. Roberto Osuna TOR (Brett Cecil) 4/4
  20. Rafael Soriano FA 5/7    <–IMO no one below here should be owned in most 12 team leagues–>
  21. Will Smith MIL (Francisco Rodriguez) 5/2
  22. Kevin Quackenbush SD (Craig Kimbrel) 4/3
  23. Joaquin Benoit (injured) SD  (Craig Kimbrel) 7/4 (at full health)
  24. Casey Fien MIN (Glen Perkins) 4/3
  25. Jumbo Diaz CIN (Aroldis Chapman) 4/3
  26. JJ Hoover CIN (Aroldis Chapman) 6/1
  27. Evan Scribner OAK (Tyler Clippard) 5/1
  28. Bryan Shaw CLE (Cody Allen) 2/4
  29. Aaron Barrett WAS (Drew Storen) 3/3
  30. David Carpenter NYA (Andrew Miller) 4/2
  31. Brad Ziegler ARI (Addison Reed) 2/3
  32. Zach Duke CHI (David Robertson) 3/2
  33. Pat Neshek HOU (Luke Gregorson) 4/1
  34. Aaron Loup TOR (Brett Cecil) 2/2
  35. Rafael Betancourt COL (Adam Ottavino) 2/2
  36. Chad Qualls HOU (Luke Gregerson) 1/2
  37. Edward Mujica BOS (Koji Uehara) 1/2
  38. Jim Johnson ATL (Jason Grilli) 1/2
  39. Jonathan Broxton MIL (Francisco Rodriguez) 1/2

SAGNOF (Saves Ain’t Got No Face edition) recommendations: A.J. Ramos, Shawn Tolleson.

 
  1. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    Jordan Walden’s injury makes him droppable in most leagues, obviously. I just dropped him for Tolleson in one RCL. Why not see what happens with him (Tolleson).

  2. Samardzija has a 2 start week this week, any idea if he is going to get hit with that suspension soon or how long the appeals process takes?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @chinmusic: Sorry but I don’t know either one. I guess I haven’t paid enough attention to how long appeals typically take. Here’s what I could find from Scott Merkin on Twitter:
      “Samardzija on suspension: “My agent is still working on it and we’re going through the proper venues to get it all situated.””

      • @RotoLance: thanks, hopefully we’ll here something before rosters lock for the week otherwise im just going to go for it, or do you think Hamels vs Harvey on Friday and Arrieta vs Lackey on thursday are better two starts then Samardzija vs Det and Cin this week anyway?

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @chinmusic: Honestly I’ve only played in a weekly lock league once and it was H2H so I’m not used to thinking like this, but… I agree with you on ‘just going for it’.

          And yeah I think, especially if I’m still writing next year, I’ll definitely try to get in a wider variety of league formats for next year.

  3. nelson says:
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    But Ramos keeps coming in in the 6th and 7th.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @nelson: That’s true. I think he’s pitched a lot of key situations which is why he has so many innings. Morris is the other guy they’ve used late with leads but he has a 10:7 K:BB ratio so far. I doubt they are turning to him. Anyway, Ramos has been solid so far and the fact that they are use him all over the place now is actually a good thing because he’s getting more innings.

      Thanks for reading.

    • Mordacious Levator says:
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      @nelson: other than dunn, nobody else has a chance right now if cishek removed, and dunn’s been pretty bad.

  4. The Jerk Store says:
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    Yimi is unhittable. How can they not just give him the closer’s role?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @The Jerk Store: MLB teams gonna MLB teams? If they did it would only be until Jansen gets back but it’s a committee right now and I think the veteran (Hatcher) has the advantage. Jansen might be the closer in two weeks, he’s already out re-habbing.

      • The Jerk Store says:
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        @RotoLance: I know that you’re right, but would outstanding for my team if little Yimmy had a shot. Thats all he’s asking for!

  5. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    boxberger is making it tough for McGee to jump right back in

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @AL KOHOLIC: Yeah I’m coming over to that point of view as well. McGee’s a lefty so hopefully they will at least be (baseball) smart enough to mix and match them. That’s probably what they _should_ do, as far as what will happen… they could go either way but to me it will still be a bit of an upset if McGee doesn’t have _at least_ a share of the saves. Thanks for reading again.

      How’s Shane Greene doing? (That’s a reference to me seeing your comment on Gilpin’s pitcher rankings a couple weeks back and I remember it because I totally agreed with you).

  6. mcBlunty says:
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    what is your thoughts on Elvis Andrus, is it worth picking up Zack Cozart ? I probably wont drop Andrus, but someone else tbd, will Andrus turn it around, is this smoke and mirrors from Zack Cozart? Thanks

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @mcBlunty: Thanks for reading, that’s a good question. I don’t put very much stock into Andru’s slow start, seems like he’s the same guy he always was but was he _ever_ that good? He’s a .270 / 30 SB guy which makes him pretty similar to Odubel Herrera I think, of course I’d rather have Andrus of the two, but I’m just saying.. every year there are going to be players that basically come out of nowhere to put up stat lines similar to .270 / 30 SB. You’re smart not to drop him though a bump to the leadoff spot would help and maybe that will happen because Leonys Martin is struggling or at least maybe they keep slotting him second as they have a lot recently.

      Cozart seems to tease every year. I think he’ll only manage about .250 and 12 home runs the rest of the way and those 17 home runs would represent a career high. He’s being helped right now by an inflated HR/FB ratio that’s twice is career average. It’s helping both his home run total and batting average if you consider some of those flyballs would normally be outs.

  7. Harrison Ford in Air Force One says:
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    How long you think until Rusney gets called up?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Harrison Ford in Air Force One: Best guess: 55% likely in 0-2 weeks, 45% something longer. I’ve tried to keep informed here but all I can do is guess.

  8. SallyCips says:
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    I have two NA spots I can fill up on my Yahoo, of the prospects mentioned who would you stash for this year? Of the guys you mentioned only Buxton is unavailable. Are there other non-SAGNOF’s to look out for? I hear good things about Joey Gallo?

  9. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    @DPRockies: JUST IN: Adam Ottavino says he’s facing season-ending Tommy John surgery

    • SallyCips says:
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      @RotoLance: Sad. Speedy recovery.

  10. BambooLounge says:
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    Would you drop Saunders for Pilar or Burns? He’s a bench bat for me right now, but I could use a speed boost.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @BambooLounge: Saunders should* be able to provide more overall value than either of those two, but not by a landslide so if you need speed I think that’s ok. Pillar is better long term than Burns, whose playing time is not assured once Crisp comes back. Pillar may even be better (than Burns) in the short term to, so go with him.

      *If he were at full health anyway, I don’t like this report of him having his knee drained probably not a big deal but in close call something like that can make a difference.

  11. JxK9 says:
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    Do you really expect Carlos Correa to be brought up soon? I’ve read he’s going to develop into a 30 HR guy, do you think he can maintain his 20+ steal potential?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @JxK9: Yeah he seems to be a guy with a good “hit tool” and power but he also has some speed. He’s a large man at 6’4″ 190 so it’s thought that as he puts on more (muscle) weight as he gets older that he won’t steal as much. All I really know is the very young Carlos Correa has stolen more bases than he’s hit home runs so far this year (and every other year) so I think if he were called up _this_ year that’s what he’d do _this year_.

      I was not trying to say he’ll actually be brought up soon. For him any time this year other than September would have to be considered soon. I imagine they would bring him up at the least when the rosters expand in September. This is all speculation based on Jed Lowrie being out, SS seems like by far their weakest position and they have a chance to make the playoffs and make some noise there. Here’s the best info I’ve been able to find online about a chance for a Correa promotion this year:

      “Luhnow said the club is considering keeping the 20-year-old Correa in Double-A — and not promoting him to Triple-A Fresno — until he gets called up to the big leagues, which could happen later this year or more likely next year.”

      Thanks for reading.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @JxK9: Correa update from:
      blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2015/05/05/carlos-correa-mark-appel-could-fill-astros-holes-but-one-is-closer-to-majors/#31998101=0

      ““If we don’t feel like we’re getting the production out of that spot, out of that position on the infield and (Jed) Lowrie’s still a ways away and we feel like Carlos gives us the best chance to win games,” Luhnow said, “that’s a scenario that leads to him potentially being here sooner than anticipated.””

  12. luvdarooks says:
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    freese Canah B Miller alonso Belt saunders Kang

    5×5 which 3 for the R O Y ?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @luvdarooks: I’ll just rank them all:

      Cahna, Saunders, Belt, Alonso, Freese, Miller, Kang but Kang would jump way up to (at least) after Saunders if we were more certain of his playing time.

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @RotoLance: Canha over Saunders for health concerns of Saunders only.

  13. Will says:
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    Would you drop Carlos Rodon or Alex Wood in a 12 team H2H keeper league for Ramos, Burns or Tolleson?

    I currently have Marisnik and I have had him for 2 weeks. I really don’t need Burns, but I don’t want to be late to the party if he “steals” the job. My OF’s are Stanton, Myers, Polonco, Marisnik, Span and Yasmany Tomas, my other RP’s are Feliz, Allen, Boxberger, and McGee. My other SP’s are Carrasco, Salazar, Shelby Miller, Fiers, Tyson Ross, and Brandon Morrow.

    Any recommendations?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Will: Looks solid to me already. I think I would keep Rodon and Wood. What do you see in Brandon Morrow?

      • Will says:
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        @RotoLance: I’m fine with getting rid of Morrow. He has had a night K rate in the past but being in Toronto his ERA was killed. Just thought he could do well in San Diego. Would you drop him for Ramos, Tolleson or Burns?

      • Will says:
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        @RotoLance: What holes do you see in my team that I need to patch (12 team H2H, 6×6 keeper league)

        C – Swihart (I lost d’arnaud and used Joseph until this week)
        1B – Encarnacion
        2B – Dozier
        3B – Arenado
        SS – Danny Santana
        OF – Stanton, Polonco, Myers, Marisnik
        Util – Span, Hosmer
        Bench – Ian Desmond, Tomas
        DL – Rendon

        SP – Morrow, Ross, Wood, Shelby Miller, Carrasco, Salazar, Fiers
        RP – Feliz, Cody Allen, Boxberger, McGee

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @Will: First of all I’m not sure what an ordinary 6×6 league is. Is it AVG + OPS, or OBP + SLG, or AVG + OBP or even OBP + OPS for the 2 ratio stats presumably to go along with R/HR/RBI/SB? It being H2H is there streaming of pitchers or is there some kind of limit (acquisition or games started)?

          Anyway your team looks pretty good. Swihart was a good acquisition. Too bad on Rendon, when he’s healthy it looks like you have an extremely deep middle infield. I heard he has an injury history dating all the way back to college, if I’m remembering that correctly. Honestly if he gets healthy and hits well this year to where he has good trade value maybe try to move him? Maybe for a 1B because Encarnacion is getting up there in age. I dunno. It also depends on which of the above categories you are using because if it’s OBP + SLG for instance then 1B really tend to dominate that and I’d say it’s important to be strong there.

          I’ve played a lot of H2H and it can be really fluky.. so good luck.

          • Will says:
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            @RotoLance: Hitting categories are R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS and K/QS/W/SV/ERA/WHIP for pitchers. I actually traded Justin Upton for Rendon and Shelby Miller earlier in the season hoping for Rendon to come off the DL. Looks like that was a horrible trade for me. Oh well. I also was able to trade Todd Frazier, Segura, and Grilli for Encarnacion, Polonco, and Cody Allen. I know Encarnacion is getting older, but I couldn’t pass up on the increase over Frazier (IMO) and to add Polonco since I have 2 other SS.

            We have a limit on 4 acquisitions per week. So we are somewhat limited on streaming pitchers. We also have a 12 starts limit each week, which I haven’t hit yet.

            • RotoLance

              RotoLance says:
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              @Will: Ok so you’ve played in this format so you probably know what type of players get a boost but I’ll break it down for you anyway.

              When you add OPS to R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG you weight it towards the sluggers. The sluggers are normally good at 3 to 4 of 5 categories, now they are good at 4 to 5 of 6. The base stealers are normally good at 2 to 3 of 5 categories, now they are good at 2 to 3 of 6. So yeah I’m fine with you acquiring Encarnacion. I think a good 1B is a real nice thing to have in this format.

              For the pitching side you really start to favor quantity over quality because the counting stats are now 4/6 instead of the regular 3/5. So it would be really silly if you _didn’t_ have pitching limits, but of course you do.

              Just my 2 cents.

  14. Flowers misses his old glasses... he's ok tho says:
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    most of tolleson’s ER came from guys homered in after he was taken out of game recently. he was great for his first 10-11 innings.

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