As I type this, I’m in a small, but expected depression as a disgruntled Mets fan living in Minnesota after today’s non-waiver trade deadline. In the middle of thermal packaging related activities, I saw deal and deal and deal swing by. All I get from both the teams that I follow most? A Kurt Suzuki extension. Oye. All that did was disgruntle me more, as I like Josmil Pinto quite a bit. I figured at least Bartolo Colon would get traded for some PTBL or a BoB (bucket o’ balls). Ah well.
On the other hand, if you’re a Tigers fan (I’m not a bandwagon A’s fan until the Mets are good, I decided today), you must be pretty excited. Drew Smyly wasn’t as dominating as a starter and Austin Jackson continued to short-come expectations. Instead you have an second ace, and can now appropriately consider Justin Verlander your number 3 or 4 or 5. [Jay’s Note: Or playoff closer?] Verlander has not been good, but he’s also been almost as unlucky as he’s been bad, or he’s hurt and isn’t saying anything/doesn’t know it.
July 1st, I noted the luckiest pitchers to date, but the one thing I didn’t do at that time was look at the pitcher’s luck/bad luck relative to their career rates. So for this post, for luck, I z-scored each pitcher’s luck stats relative to their career stats (homerun to flyball ratio, left on base% and BABIP). I weighed each z-score by the stats correlation to ERA. Therefore the luckies pitchers (using luck alone and excluding skill) as of 7/27 is: Josh Beckett, Jake Arrieta, Collin McHugh, Scott Kazmir, Garrett Richards, Zach Britton, Jordan Lyles, Drew Pomeranz, Dellin Betances, Alfredo Simon and Danny Duffy. Chris Young, Jason Hammel and Jesse Chavez (update: both Hammel and Chavez were rocked in their last start). However, this all excludes skill (contact rate, strikeout% minus walk% and ground ball to flyball ratio). Incorporating this, here are the actual luckiest pitchers as of 7/27:
1. Chris Young
2. Mark Buehrle
3. Chris Tillman
4. Jordan Lyles
5. Doug Fister
6. Danny Duffy
7. Bud Norris
8. Rick Porcello
9. Edinson Volquez
10. Jon Niese.
Other obvious lucky starters, David Hale and Alfredo Simon are also in the top 16.
So who are the least lucky/have the worst rates according to their career (it’s not all luck-related): Brandon McCarthy, Clay Buchholz, Jose Fernandez!, Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, Josh Tomlin, Dan Haren, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Minor, C.J. Wilson and Wade Miley. An Interesting list here: a bunch of impending injured pitchers and sh*t-shows Clay Buchholz and Cliff Lee (update: 2nd/same strain to Lee’s left elbow again on 7/31). Based on this list, I’m also concerned about Madison Bumgarner and even David Price a little. The difference and concern-appeaser is that both still have solid skill scores: 9th overall for Price and 23rd overall for Bumgarner. If the skills drop-off then I’ll be concerned from an injury perspective.
Who are the skillsiest pitchers exclusive of luck: Dellin Betances, Clayton Kershaw, Jose Fernandez, Masahiro Tanaka, Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg, Zach Britton, David Price, Tyson Ross!, Corey Kluber! (I was irrationally and now rationally in love with both of Kluber’s and Ross’ repertoires/pitch f/x prior to this year), Yu Darvish, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke and solid reliever but bad starter, Yusmiero Petit.
Now incorporating luck as well, here are your best Skill-Luck scores:
5. Masahiro Tanaka
I think the top 5 verifies the value of this assessment, no?
6. David Price
7. Felix Hernandez
8. Yu Darvish
9, 10 and 13 will make make this list lose integrity somewhat:
9. Yusmiero Petit – all about the slider
10. Brandon McCarthy (just so unlucky)
and now to bring back integrity:
11. Chris Sale
13. Josh Tomlin
14. Tyson Ross
15. Zack Greinke
You can follow me on Twitter @Rotobanter for the full sortable list. Below is the list cut off by the right-hand margin as usual. It’s sorted as you see it by my Skill-Luck Score. There are 3 columns on the left prior to each name. The first column is the average of the next two. The “ERAdiff” column is simply each pitcher’s SIERA-ERA (expected ERA) differential. The third column is my Skill-Luck (1 being the most lucky and 124 being the most skillsy). The 3 columns after IP are the skill stat z-scores (contact, K%-BB% and GB/FB). The next 3 columns are the luck stat z-scores (HR/FB, LOB% and BABIP). Next up is the overall Skill Score (skill z-scores summed up) followed by the Luck Score (luck z-scores summed up) followed by my Skill-Luck score and lastly the SIERA-ERA differential.
| Stats | as of | 27-Jul | Skill/Luck | Skill | Skill | Skill | Luck | Luck | Luck | Skill | Luck | Skill – | SIERA – | |
| Correlation to ERA | 0.315 | 0.367 | 0.066 | 0.123 | 0.225 | 0.11 | Score | Score | Luck | ERA | ||||
| Rank | ERAdiff | Sk-Lu | Name | IP | zContact | zK-BB% | zGB/FB | zHR/FB | zLOB | zBABIP | Skill | Luck | Sk-Lu | ERAdiff |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Chris Young | 117.1 | -0.45 | -0.53 | -0.10 | -0.07 | 0.36 | 0.13 | -1.08 | 0.42 | -1.50 | -2.58 |
| 3 | 4 | 2 | Mark Buehrle | 132.1 | -0.52 | -0.45 | -0.04 | 0.12 | 0.26 | -0.05 | -1.00 | 0.33 | -1.33 | -1.98 |
| 13.5 | 24 | 3 | Chris Tillman | 131 | -0.51 | -0.61 | -0.05 | 0.13 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -1.17 | 0.08 | -1.25 | -0.86 |
| 26 | 48 | 4 | Jordan Lyles | 69 | -0.39 | -0.44 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.39 | 0.07 | -0.74 | 0.50 | -1.24 | -0.31 |
| 9 | 13 | 5 | Doug Fister | 83.1 | -0.65 | -0.18 | -0.02 | -0.10 | 0.40 | 0.07 | -0.84 | 0.37 | -1.21 | -1.15 |
| 4.5 | 3 | 6 | Danny Duffy | 98.1 | -0.40 | -0.24 | -0.07 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.24 | -0.72 | 0.44 | -1.16 | -2.17 |
| 28.5 | 50 | 7 | Bud Norris | 97.2 | -0.42 | -0.32 | -0.04 | -0.02 | 0.17 | 0.17 | -0.77 | 0.31 | -1.08 | -0.28 |
| 22 | 36 | 8 | Rick Porcello | 126.1 | -0.35 | -0.38 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.17 | 0.15 | -0.72 | 0.35 | -1.07 | -0.61 |
| 26.5 | 44 | 9 | Edinson Volquez | 116.2 | -0.26 | -0.49 | -0.01 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.14 | -0.76 | 0.28 | -1.04 | -0.36 |
| 21.5 | 33 | 10 | Jon Niese | 109.1 | -0.52 | -0.22 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.05 | -0.74 | 0.30 | -1.03 | -0.70 |
| 21 | 31 | 11 | Dan Otero | 59.2 | -0.68 | -0.41 | 0.13 | -0.11 | 0.01 | 0.16 | -0.97 | 0.06 | -1.03 | -0.74 |
| 15.5 | 19 | 12 | Tommy Milone | 96.1 | -0.37 | -0.38 | -0.06 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.11 | -0.81 | 0.20 | -1.01 | -0.93 |
| 21.5 | 30 | 13 | Shelby Miller | 110 | -0.40 | -0.75 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.21 | -0.03 | -1.20 | -0.26 | -0.95 | -0.76 |
| 14 | 14 | 14 | Drew Pomeranz | 55.2 | -0.23 | -0.21 | -0.02 | -0.02 | 0.37 | 0.12 | -0.46 | 0.48 | -0.94 | -1.09 |
| 8.5 | 2 | 15 | David Hale | 62.1 | -0.23 | -0.88 | 0.05 | -0.03 | -0.19 | 0.04 | -1.06 | -0.17 | -0.89 | -2.27 |
| 13 | 10 | 16 | Alfredo Simon | 121.2 | -0.16 | -0.27 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.31 | 0.18 | -0.43 | 0.45 | -0.88 | -1.44 |
| 13 | 9 | 17 | Andrew Cashner | 76.1 | -0.40 | -0.18 | 0.04 | 0.24 | 0.02 | -0.05 | -0.54 | 0.20 | -0.74 | -1.52 |
| 16.5 | 15 | 18 | Henderson Alvarez | 130.2 | -0.32 | -0.26 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.17 | -0.09 | -0.51 | 0.23 | -0.73 | -1.08 |
| 19.5 | 20 | 19 | Jason Vargas | 125 | -0.16 | -0.27 | -0.04 | -0.01 | 0.31 | -0.04 | -0.47 | 0.26 | -0.73 | -0.92 |
| 33.5 | 47 | 20 | Dillon Gee | 69.2 | -0.32 | -0.15 | -0.04 | -0.05 | 0.12 | 0.14 | -0.51 | 0.21 | -0.72 | -0.32 |
| 35 | 49 | 21 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | 74.1 | -0.12 | -0.40 | -0.04 | 0.06 | -0.05 | 0.13 | -0.57 | 0.13 | -0.70 | -0.29 |
| 13.5 | 5 | 22 | Jake Petricka | 52.1 | -0.26 | -0.52 | 0.13 | -0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | -0.64 | 0.04 | -0.68 | -1.95 |
| 44 | 65 | 23 | David Phelps | 100.1 | -0.54 | -0.19 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.77 | -0.12 | -0.65 | 0.07 |
| 21 | 18 | 24 | Aaron Harang | 130.1 | -0.11 | -0.29 | -0.05 | 0.19 | 0.04 | -0.05 | -0.45 | 0.18 | -0.63 | -0.96 |
| 16 | 7 | 25 | Todd Redmond | 53.1 | -0.28 | -0.13 | -0.07 | 0.22 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.48 | 0.11 | -0.60 | -1.66 |
| 29 | 32 | 26 | Josh Collmenter | 111.1 | -0.44 | -0.38 | -0.05 | 0.01 | -0.25 | -0.04 | -0.87 | -0.28 | -0.59 | -0.73 |
| 42 | 57 | 27 | Tom Koehler | 119.1 | -0.08 | -0.32 | -0.04 | 0.08 | -0.01 | 0.06 | -0.43 | 0.13 | -0.56 | -0.19 |
| 41 | 54 | 28 | Charlie Morton | 126.1 | -0.22 | -0.18 | 0.06 | -0.03 | 0.07 | 0.16 | -0.34 | 0.21 | -0.55 | -0.19 |
| 22.5 | 16 | 29 | Josh Beckett | 107.1 | 0.12 | 0.13 | -0.04 | -0.11 | 0.66 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.76 | -0.55 | -1.06 |
| 28.5 | 27 | 30 | Kyle Lohse | 140.2 | -0.22 | -0.05 | -0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.10 | -0.32 | 0.18 | -0.50 | -0.76 |
| 41 | 51 | 31 | Miguel Gonzalez | 96.2 | -0.22 | -0.35 | -0.06 | -0.10 | 0.09 | -0.12 | -0.63 | -0.13 | -0.49 | -0.26 |
| 50 | 68 | 32 | Erasmo Ramirez | 60 | 0.27 | -0.44 | -0.05 | -0.04 | 0.34 | -0.07 | -0.22 | 0.23 | -0.45 | 0.13 |
| 49.5 | 66 | 33 | A.J. Burnett | 144.2 | -0.13 | -0.35 | 0.03 | 0.09 | -0.11 | 0.00 | -0.45 | -0.02 | -0.43 | 0.09 |
| 55.5 | 77 | 34 | Wei-Yin Chen | 117 | -0.33 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.08 | 0.10 | -0.06 | -0.46 | -0.04 | -0.42 | 0.41 |
| 44 | 53 | 35 | Jesse Chavez | 120.1 | -0.12 | 0.08 | -0.02 | 0.10 | 0.29 | -0.04 | -0.07 | 0.35 | -0.42 | -0.23 |
| 57.5 | 79 | 36 | Yovani Gallardo | 121 | -0.33 | -0.18 | 0.02 | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.02 | -0.49 | -0.09 | -0.40 | 0.42 |
| 22.5 | 8 | 37 | Adam Wainwright | 142.2 | -0.06 | 0.14 | -0.01 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.42 | -0.36 | -1.63 |
| 49.5 | 61 | 38 | Drew Smyly | 94.2 | -0.14 | -0.18 | -0.06 | -0.09 | 0.06 | -0.02 | -0.38 | -0.04 | -0.34 | -0.01 |
| 33.5 | 28 | 39 | Lance Lynn | 127 | -0.09 | -0.10 | -0.02 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -0.21 | 0.12 | -0.33 | -0.76 |
| 56.5 | 73 | 40 | Wily Peralta | 125.2 | -0.19 | -0.18 | 0.05 | -0.15 | 0.15 | 0.01 | -0.32 | 0.00 | -0.32 | 0.35 |
| 71.5 | 102 | 41 | Mike Leake | 140 | -0.39 | -0.06 | 0.05 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.08 | -0.40 | -0.09 | -0.31 | 0.83 |
| 68.5 | 95 | 42 | Tony Cingrani | 63.1 | -0.21 | -0.34 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.16 | -0.15 | -0.61 | -0.38 | -0.23 | 0.64 |
| 68.5 | 94 | 43 | Dallas Keuchel | 120.1 | 0.08 | -0.10 | 0.15 | 0.24 | 0.14 | -0.03 | 0.13 | 0.35 | -0.22 | 0.63 |
| 30.5 | 17 | 44 | Scott Kazmir | 124.1 | 0.10 | 0.28 | -0.03 | 0.06 | 0.33 | 0.19 | 0.36 | 0.57 | -0.22 | -0.98 |
| 54 | 63 | 45 | Seth Maness | 52.1 | -0.35 | -0.12 | 0.07 | 0.09 | -0.29 | 0.01 | -0.40 | -0.19 | -0.21 | 0.00 |
| 29 | 12 | 46 | Tommy Kahnle | 54.2 | 0.13 | -0.34 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.23 | -0.04 | -0.19 | -1.17 |
| 59.5 | 72 | 47 | Collin McHugh | 82.1 | 0.33 | 0.28 | -0.04 | 0.13 | 0.40 | 0.21 | 0.57 | 0.74 | -0.18 | 0.32 |
| 42.5 | 37 | 48 | Tim Hudson | 132.1 | -0.14 | -0.12 | 0.08 | 0.07 | -0.01 | -0.07 | -0.17 | 0.00 | -0.17 | -0.58 |
| 39 | 29 | 49 | Jake Arrieta | 85 | 0.11 | 0.47 | 0.01 | 0.31 | 0.42 | 0.02 | 0.59 | 0.76 | -0.17 | -0.76 |
| 71.5 | 93 | 50 | Trevor Bauer | 84.2 | -0.11 | 0.03 | -0.07 | 0.03 | 0.07 | -0.11 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.14 | 0.61 |
| 43 | 35 | 51 | Jered Weaver | 139.1 | -0.03 | -0.09 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.08 | 0.05 | -0.20 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -0.64 |
| 74 | 96 | 52 | Nathan Eovaldi | 130.2 | -0.30 | -0.17 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.36 | -0.03 | -0.51 | -0.39 | -0.11 | 0.67 |
| 57.5 | 62 | 53 | Matt Garza | 132.2 | -0.11 | -0.26 | -0.04 | 0.14 | -0.55 | 0.08 | -0.41 | -0.34 | -0.07 | -0.01 |
| 37.5 | 21 | 54 | Tanner Roark | 120.2 | -0.19 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -0.29 | -0.22 | -0.07 | -0.92 |
| 83.5 | 112 | 55 | Roenis Elias | 118.1 | 0.05 | -0.11 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.05 | 1.17 |
| 48.5 | 41 | 56 | Chris Archer | 119.2 | -0.01 | -0.18 | 0.01 | 0.15 | -0.18 | -0.13 | -0.18 | -0.16 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 57.5 | 58 | 57 | Chase Anderson | 60.1 | 0.16 | -0.17 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| 56.5 | 55 | 58 | Anibal Sanchez | 107 | -0.12 | -0.10 | -0.03 | 0.16 | -0.52 | 0.11 | -0.25 | -0.25 | 0.01 | -0.19 |
| 42.5 | 26 | 59 | Sonny Gray | 132.1 | -0.03 | -0.06 | 0.05 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.05 | 0.01 | -0.79 |
| 70 | 80 | 60 | Jason Hammel | 115.2 | 0.20 | 0.25 | -0.04 | -0.03 | 0.32 | 0.11 | 0.42 | 0.40 | 0.02 | 0.42 |
| 79.5 | 98 | 61 | Gerrit Cole | 85.2 | -0.10 | -0.04 | 0.02 | -0.09 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.11 | -0.14 | 0.02 | 0.70 |
| 85.5 | 109 | 62 | Justin Verlander | 135.2 | -0.15 | -0.38 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.45 | -0.13 | -0.57 | -0.59 | 0.03 | 1.06 |
| 66 | 69 | 63 | Tim Lincecum | 120.2 | 0.12 | -0.12 | 0.00 | -0.12 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| 90 | 116 | 64 | Dan Haren | 122.1 | -0.40 | -0.09 | -0.02 | -0.20 | -0.33 | -0.03 | -0.52 | -0.56 | 0.04 | 1.37 |
| 44 | 23 | 65 | Johnny Cueto | 148.2 | -0.01 | 0.35 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.34 | 0.30 | 0.04 | -0.90 |
| 68.5 | 71 | 66 | Marcus Stroman | 67.1 | -0.15 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | 0.02 | -0.04 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| 53 | 39 | 67 | Garrett Richards | 137.1 | 0.37 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.61 | 0.54 | 0.07 | -0.50 |
| 83.5 | 99 | 68 | John Lackey | 130.1 | -0.09 | 0.12 | -0.01 | -0.06 | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -0.07 | 0.09 | 0.71 |
| 66.5 | 64 | 69 | Yordano Ventura | 107.2 | 0.11 | -0.18 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.13 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.15 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| 58 | 46 | 70 | Jeff Samardzija | 138 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.11 | -0.32 |
| 65 | 59 | 71 | Jose Quintana | 131.1 | -0.19 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.14 | -0.31 | -0.05 | -0.11 | -0.23 | 0.12 | -0.06 |
| 47 | 22 | 72 | Gavin Floyd | 54.1 | 0.25 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.25 | -0.06 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.12 | -0.92 |
| 39.5 | 6 | 73 | Jeurys Familia | 51.2 | 0.41 | -0.23 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.12 | -1.76 |
| 56 | 38 | 74 | Jeff Locke | 62 | 0.08 | -0.11 | 0.01 | 0.04 | -0.22 | 0.05 | -0.02 | -0.13 | 0.12 | -0.52 |
| 99.5 | 124 | 75 | Mike Minor | 86.1 | -0.30 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.18 | -0.02 | -0.29 | -0.35 | -0.49 | 0.13 | 2.67 |
| 79 | 82 | 76 | Jenrry Mejia | 67.1 | 0.26 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -0.04 | -0.01 | 0.12 | -0.05 | 0.17 | 0.45 |
| 44 | 11 | 77 | Tom Wilhelmsen | 55.2 | 0.52 | -0.30 | 0.07 | -0.24 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.12 | 0.17 | -1.27 |
| 81 | 84 | 78 | Matt Cain | 90.1 | -0.09 | -0.28 | -0.03 | -0.27 | -0.29 | -0.02 | -0.40 | -0.58 | 0.18 | 0.47 |
| 92 | 105 | 79 | Craig Stammen | 52.1 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.06 | -0.08 | 0.06 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.87 |
| 101 | 122 | 80 | Clay Buchholz | 91.2 | -0.16 | -0.36 | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.47 | -0.23 | -0.55 | -0.74 | 0.19 | 2.19 |
| 78 | 75 | 81 | Hiroki Kuroda | 123 | 0.02 | -0.15 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.34 | -0.01 | -0.15 | -0.35 | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| 97.5 | 113 | 82 | C.J. Wilson | 116.1 | -0.08 | -0.14 | 0.02 | -0.28 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.20 | -0.41 | 0.21 | 1.21 |
| 98.5 | 114 | 83 | Carlos Carrasco | 58.1 | 0.35 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.56 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 1.22 |
| 81 | 78 | 84 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 111.2 | -0.14 | 0.18 | -0.02 | 0.05 | -0.27 | -0.07 | 0.02 | -0.29 | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| 84 | 83 | 85 | Carlos Torres | 60.1 | 0.40 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.37 | -0.15 | 0.61 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| 85.5 | 85 | 86 | James Shields | 143.1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.16 | -0.09 | 0.06 | -0.26 | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| 101 | 115 | 87 | Homer Bailey | 123.2 | 0.29 | -0.07 | 0.02 | -0.20 | 0.15 | -0.03 | 0.25 | -0.08 | 0.33 | 1.28 |
| 103 | 118 | 88 | Carlos Martinez | 67 | 0.45 | -0.21 | 0.03 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 | -0.06 | 0.33 | 1.69 |
| 87.5 | 86 | 89 | Alex Wood | 91.2 | 0.07 | 0.31 | -0.04 | -0.11 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| 62 | 34 | 90 | Michael Wacha | 90.1 | 0.14 | 0.11 | -0.03 | 0.01 | -0.13 | -0.02 | 0.22 | -0.14 | 0.36 | -0.67 |
| 95.5 | 100 | 91 | Zack Wheeler | 114.1 | 0.05 | -0.04 | 0.04 | -0.01 | -0.19 | -0.11 | 0.06 | -0.31 | 0.37 | 0.73 |
| 67 | 42 | 92 | Jacob deGrom | 80.2 | 0.27 | 0.08 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | 0.34 | -0.04 | 0.37 | -0.39 |
| 76.5 | 60 | 93 | Adam Warren | 52 | 0.28 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.20 | -0.19 | 0.01 | 0.40 | 0.02 | 0.37 | -0.03 |
| 59.5 | 25 | 94 | Julio Teheran | 143.1 | 0.25 | 0.22 | -0.06 | 0.02 | -0.05 | 0.05 | 0.41 | 0.02 | 0.39 | -0.83 |
| 101 | 107 | 95 | Ian Kennedy | 135.1 | 0.08 | 0.30 | -0.04 | 0.06 | -0.07 | -0.12 | 0.34 | -0.14 | 0.48 | 0.98 |
| 69.5 | 43 | 96 | Jon Lester | 137 | 0.03 | 0.45 | -0.03 | 0.14 | -0.13 | -0.04 | 0.45 | -0.04 | 0.48 | -0.38 |
| 71 | 45 | 97 | Cole Hamels | 122.1 | 0.30 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.03 | -0.06 | 0.55 | 0.07 | 0.48 | -0.36 |
| 82.5 | 67 | 98 | Zach Britton | 50.2 | 0.50 | 0.06 | 0.49 | -0.45 | 0.68 | 0.30 | 1.05 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.12 |
| 95.5 | 92 | 99 | Hisashi Iwakuma | 110.2 | -0.12 | 0.36 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -0.26 | -0.09 | 0.25 | -0.32 | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| 88 | 76 | 100 | Corey Kluber | 149.1 | 0.28 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.83 | 0.25 | 0.58 | 0.38 |
| 95.5 | 90 | 101 | Gio Gonzalez | 86.2 | 0.42 | 0.08 | -0.04 | 0.08 | -0.18 | -0.04 | 0.45 | -0.13 | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| 106 | 110 | 102 | Alex Cobb | 88.2 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.05 | -0.03 | -0.10 | -0.02 | 0.44 | -0.14 | 0.59 | 1.08 |
| 88.5 | 74 | 103 | Jordan Zimmermann | 118 | 0.13 | 0.29 | -0.02 | 0.04 | -0.04 | -0.19 | 0.40 | -0.19 | 0.59 | 0.36 |
| 110.5 | 117 | 104 | Wade Miley | 134 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.01 | -0.21 | -0.20 | 0.01 | 0.23 | -0.40 | 0.63 | 1.53 |
| 108 | 111 | 105 | Cliff Lee | 73.2 | -0.22 | 0.23 | 0.01 | -0.03 | -0.32 | -0.28 | 0.02 | -0.62 | 0.64 | 1.11 |
| 104.5 | 103 | 106 | Francisco Liriano | 88.1 | 0.67 | -0.15 | 0.03 | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.02 | 0.54 | -0.13 | 0.67 | 0.85 |
| 106.5 | 106 | 107 | Max Scherzer | 139 | 0.32 | 0.54 | -0.06 | 0.04 | 0.14 | -0.07 | 0.80 | 0.10 | 0.70 | 0.98 |
| 106 | 104 | 108 | Ervin Santana | 123.1 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.09 | -0.20 | -0.17 | 0.45 | -0.28 | 0.72 | 0.85 |
| 103 | 97 | 109 | Brad Ziegler | 50.2 | 0.29 | -0.06 | 0.20 | -0.20 | -0.14 | 0.05 | 0.44 | -0.29 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| 95.5 | 81 | 110 | Zack Greinke | 124.1 | 0.26 | 0.46 | 0.01 | -0.18 | 0.25 | -0.10 | 0.73 | -0.03 | 0.75 | 0.42 |
| 83.5 | 56 | 111 | Tyson Ross | 142.2 | 0.57 | 0.19 | 0.10 | -0.11 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.85 | 0.09 | 0.76 | -0.19 |
| 116 | 120 | 112 | Josh Tomlin | 81.1 | -0.06 | 0.32 | -0.04 | -0.18 | -0.29 | -0.09 | 0.22 | -0.57 | 0.79 | 2.08 |
| 101 | 89 | 113 | Madison Bumgarner | 141 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.18 | -0.13 | 0.46 | -0.32 | 0.79 | 0.52 |
| 77 | 40 | 114 | Chris Sale | 102 | 0.42 | 0.74 | -0.04 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1.12 | 0.30 | 0.83 | -0.48 |
| 119 | 123 | 115 | Brandon McCarthy | 128.1 | -0.23 | 0.16 | 0.08 | -0.38 | -0.20 | -0.23 | 0.02 | -0.81 | 0.83 | 2.57 |
| 118.5 | 121 | 116 | Yusmeiro Petit | 68 | 0.37 | 0.39 | -0.07 | 0.12 | -0.16 | -0.10 | 0.69 | -0.14 | 0.84 | 2.14 |
| 102 | 87 | 117 | Yu Darvish | 126.1 | 0.26 | 0.63 | -0.07 | 0.10 | 0.01 | -0.15 | 0.82 | -0.04 | 0.87 | 0.48 |
| 85 | 52 | 118 | Felix Hernandez | 151.1 | 0.49 | 0.67 | 0.05 | 0.16 | -0.07 | 0.12 | 1.21 | 0.21 | 1.00 | -0.25 |
| 113.5 | 108 | 119 | David Price | 155.2 | 0.20 | 0.76 | -0.05 | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.09 | 0.91 | -0.23 | 1.14 | 1.02 |
| 95 | 70 | 120 | Masahiro Tanaka | 129.1 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | 1.26 | -0.04 | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| 104.5 | 88 | 121 | Dellin Betances | 60.1 | 0.60 | 1.41 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.28 | 0.15 | 2.01 | 0.47 | 1.54 | 0.48 |
| 120.5 | 119 | 122 | Stephen Strasburg | 137.1 | 0.38 | 0.68 | 0.00 | -0.09 | -0.20 | -0.24 | 1.06 | -0.53 | 1.59 | 1.91 |
| 107 | 91 | 123 | Clayton Kershaw | 103.1 | 0.74 | 1.23 | 0.03 | -0.10 | 0.18 | -0.07 | 2.00 | 0.01 | 1.99 | 0.55 |
| 112.5 | 101 | 124 | Jose Fernandez | 51.2 | 0.70 | 1.03 | -0.01 | -0.09 | -0.49 | -0.13 | 1.72 | -0.70 | 2.42 | 0.73 |
