Summertime!  Time to tidy up the old ranks.  This week is first base, next week is third.

Reminder, I’m trying to predict what they WILL do.  If you want rankings of what’s happened already, there’s a player rater for that.  There’s also a projected rest-of-season tool that I used but since I’m not AI (or am I?) I had to put some of my own biases in there.  And yes, I am biased.  You are too.  So let’s go by tiers, rankings are at the bottom.

If you want to quibble a bit with certain guys, go ahead in the comments or on Tweeter Machine at @theEducator23.


Vladimir Guerrero Jr.:  He’s been fine, not elite, but the thing with Vladdy is the hot streaks come fast and furious and win leagues.  I think he’s the most talented guy at the position and is my clear top pick for the rest of the season.


Freddie Freeman:  I never should have doubted him.  I read an interview with him about how he’s never changed his approach to get more power, more pulling the ball, etc.  He’s just Freddie.  And that’s great.  I wouldn’t argue if you had him first.  He’s been and continues to be a top 5 bat overall.  I’m enjoying watching a future Hall of Fame Player at work.

All A Honor Roll

Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Olson:  There’s a gap after these guys for sure.  If you drafted these guys they have been steadily returning value and will continue to do so.

A/B Honor Roll

Yandy Diaz, Luis Arraez, Anthony Rizzo:  This is the tier of guys that you drafted late and are returning more value than you ever had a right to expect.

I have Arraez higher than most.  His batting average is such an outlier in this time of lower contact that he can carry a category.  On our Player Rater, they give this cool dollar value to stats.  Arraez has the most value of any hitter in any statistic in the league.  He’s worth $19 of his value from that one stat.  Second place was $13.  That’s more value than Alonso’s HR, and five more than any single player in R or RBI.  I know he’s not great or even good anywhere else, but that’s one elite stat you can count on.

Solid B, Sits in the Back and Doesn’t Make Waves

Ryan Mountcastle, Andrew Vaughn, and Nathaniel Lowe:  If you got these guys you’re satisfied.  Not giddy or gleeful, but satisfied.   You will not win your league because of these guys, but you won’t lose it either.  I love first base.  It’s so stable!  Of the three, Vaughn has the most potential upside and the White Sox have been sneaky okay for a bit here, so he might be a buy low if you want.  If not, hey, whatevs.

C’s get Degrees

Christian Walker, Rowdy Tellez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Spencer Steer, Harold Ramirez, Miguel Vargas

I’m a sucker for guys who have an OBP 100 points higher than their average, so Miguel Vargas is the guy for me in this tier.   Of course, a brief visit to his Savant page shows that when he does make contact, it’s not very good contact.  But I’d rather take a chance on him than some other guys lower down the list due to some theoretical upside.  His plate approach is elite.

Wait, Study Hall isn’t a Grade?

Josh Naylor, Justin Turner, C.J. Cron, Alec Bohm, Josh Bell, Joey Meneses.  I mean, you can own them if you want.  It’s just not a great plan.

Like Study Hall.  Remember those?  Do they still exist in high schools?  I remember being very strongly advised by my Mama to take one to keep up with my work during it.  It was actively hurtful to my keeping up with classwork.  Euchre was a huge game in Wisconsin, so that was one thing.  The other, if you had Honor Roll grades (and if you’ve read my stuff clearly writing wasn’t my forte) you could have it in the cafeteria.  With all the kids eating lunch.  While fun, wasn’t particularly useful.

These guys I guess aren’t fun or particularly useful.  Let’s move on.

Guys that I Won’t Quit

Triston Casas, Spencer Torkelson, Matt Mervis.

If you read my last weeks writeup, I value prospect pedigree.  All three of these guys are clearly adjusting, but they were all top prospects at their position coming up, so I won’t quit them.

Ranks Below!!!!!!!!!!

Name Tier
Vladimir Guerrero Jr 1
Freddie Freeman 1
Pete Alonso 2
Paul Goldschmidt 2
Matt Olson 2
Yandy Diaz 3
Luis Arraez 3
Anthony Rizzo 3
Ryan Mountcastle 4
Andrew Vaughn 4
Nathaniel Lowe 4
Christian Walker 5
Rowdy Tellez 5
Vinnie Pasquantino 5
Spencer Steer 5
Harold Ramirez 5
Miguel Vargas 5
Josh Naylor 6
Justin Turner 6
C.J. Cron in Coors 6
Alec Bohm 6
Nick Pratto 6
Joey Meneses 7
Triston Casas 7
Spencer Torkelson 7
Matt Mervis 7
Jose Abreu 7
Alex Kirilloff 7
DJ LeMahieu 7
Brandon Drury 7