Welcome back to the weekend DFSers! We have another massive 14-game slate on FanDuel, with everyone playing except for the Yankees and Red Sox, who are shipping off to London. Pitching is a little on the light side today, with Jacob deGrom and his tough match-up with the Braves being the most expensive pitcher on the slate at $11,500. There are some really awesome hitting match-ups today, so I’m more likely to pay down a little at pitcher in order to fit in the big bats. That’s why I’m locking in Merrill Kelly ($8,600) as my starting pitcher. In five starts since a rough start in Coors on May 28th, Kelly has gone 34.1 innings pitched, while allowing just nine runs and striking out 32. More importantly, Merrill Kelly faces the Giants, who have the fourth-worst wRC+ against right-handed pitching for the season. In addition, this game will be played in Oracle Park, giving Kelly a park upgrade as well. Let’s take a look at what paying down at pitcher on FanDuel can get us.
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Jose Berrios, SP: $10,500 – I put this here to warn of a little caution. Berrios left his last start with a blister (he still went seven innings, with 90 pitchers thrown), so I’d be a little wary of starting him here, despite the nice match-up with the White Sox.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP: $8,500 – This is a risky one, being in Coors, but I just can’t ignore the MLB’s ERA leader, especially at this price.
Wade Miley, SP: $7,100 – Here’s your super pay-down, high floor, low ceiling option. Should be pretty safe, as the Mariners’ are projected to have six lefties in the lineup.
Joc Pederson, C/1B: $4,000 – Well, well, well, look who showed up with 1B eligibility. Pederson’s in Coors against Antonio Senzatela, who throws 75% fastballs and strikes out just 13.1% of batters.
Yasmani Grandal, C/1B: $3,500 – Rostering a catcher on FanDuel almost always goes under-owned and the Brewers have an awesome match-up with former-ace, Chris Archer. Archer allows a 46.7% hard-hit rate and 44.9% fly-ball rate to left-handed batters. In addition, Archer gets a major park downgrade going from PNC Park to Miller Park. Grandal has been leading off for the Brewers against right-handed pitchers.
C.J. Cron, C/1B: $3,400 – As of this writing, it appears the White Sox are going with a bullpen game. The White Sox bullpen has the seventh-worst xFIP and are bottom five in strikeout rate. The Twins are one of my favorite stacks today.
Eric Thames, C/1B: $2,500 – Chris Archer also has the 15th worst barrel-rate among pitchers with at least 100 batted ball events. Thames has a 48.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers.
Max Muncy, 2B: $4,100 – This is all about Muncy playing in Coors. Oh and his .243 ISO and .385 wOBA against right-handed pitchers doesn’t hurt either.
Mike Moustakas, 2B: $3,800 – Moustakas has a .305 ISO and .403 wOBA against right-handed pitching, which should play nicely with Archer’s hard-hit problems.
Keston Hiura, 2B: $2,300 – The only thing keeping me from playing Moustakas, is if Hiura makes the lineup. He got the call up Thursday night and should be starting at second. If he’s in the lineup, he’ll be extremely chalky, but this is good chalk.
Anthony Rendon, 3B: $4,500 – I really like the match-up for Rendon and the Nationals today against Daniel Norris, but the bats are really priced up, as noted from Rendon.
Justin Turner, 3B: $3,900 – I’m not sure we’ll be able to full stack the Dodgers at these prices, but pick your favorites and lock them in.
Colin Moran, 3B: $2,400 – I’m most likely playing the over in the Brewers/Pirates game, because I’m all about playing against Jhoulys Chacin. Moran is a nice cheap piece, who has a .216 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Fernando Tatis, Jr., SS: $4,000 – The Padres face Michael Wacha, who has some pretty extreme reverse-splits this year, allowing a .419 wOBA to righties. The Padres are stacked with right-handed pop and at the top of the lineup is Tatis.
Jorge Polanco, SS: $3,900 – My favorite player gets an awesome match-up against the White Sox bullpen.
Kevin Newman, SS: $3,100 – Newman’s been excellent since joining the Pirates, as he has a .368 wOBA against right-handed pitching and will be atop the Pirates’ lineup today.
Cody Bellinger, OF: $5,100 – Yes, I know, this price is crazy and the Dodgers are probably impossible as a stack, but you have to try and squeeze them in where you can.
Christian Yelich, OF: $4,600 – I know this is kind of cheating, but I wanted to stress, if you’re stacking up the Brewers, don’t get cheap. Take that savings you going with Hiura and pay up for Yelich.
Nelson Cruz, OF: $3,800 – Massive power against the White Sox bullpen day.
Max Kepler, OF: $3,700 – Kepler’s just one homer away from tying his season high for his career and we haven’t even reached July. The breakout is legit.
Alex Verdugo, OF: $3,600 – This isn’t as cheap as I want it to be, but I’m super thirsty when it comes to fitting in the Dodgers at Coors today.
Lordes Gurriel, OF: $3,500 – Since returning from his stint in the minors on May 24th, Gurriel has been lighting it up, posting a .451 wOBA.
Alex Gordon, OF: $3,200 – The Blue Jays are rolling out Sean Reid-Foley, who’s struggled with control both in the majors (20% BB%) and at AAA (16.2% BB%).
Corey Dickerson, OF: $3,000 – Since CDick returned to the lineup on June 8th, he’s batting .395 with a 160 wRC+ and gets an awesome match-up with Chacin in Miller Park.
Jordan Luplow, OF: $2,900 – Luplow versus lefties: .408 ISO, .477 wOBA.
Ryan Braun, OF: $2,800 – Braun could go a little overlooked today, but has a 47.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers, which has led to a .358 wOBA.
Jake Cave, OF: $2,200 – If he makes the lineup, I like Cave as a super cheap pop option to fill out a Twins stack or a cheap one-off with upside.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No rain on today’s slate, but there are some hot, hot heat in the Rockies/Dodgers, Tigers/Nationals, Reds/Cubs, and Orioles/Indians games. All four games will be in the high 80s and above, so upgrade the bats slightly.
Doing Lines In Vegas
As of this writing, the Dodgers are the only really big favorite at -210. There are three double-digit totals out so far in the Dodgers/Rockies (11.5), Brewers/Pirates (10.5), and Tigers/Nationals (10.5). Personally, my favorite play is going to be the Brewers’ team total at 5.5.
