According to the Gregorian calendar, today is Sunday, June 9th, 2019, and we are in a universe with no specific name, because it’s the only one we know. In this vast universe we are in a galaxy we call the Milky Way, in a solar system named Our, and on planet Earth, trying to predict what specific people near us will be doing with a bat and a ball. That may sound impossible to predict, but we can usually narrow down the probabilities to identify the likeliest outcomes and relay that information here. Today is not that day. Apologies.
Today there are literally (not literally) an infinite number of best possible lineups in the FanDuel Main Slate.
What contributes to this lack of certainty? It’s all about the flux of players’ salaries in relation to their likely outcomes. Likely outcomes are determined by past events, current match-ups, and how weather conditions affect these probabilities. So, what we see here is a higher than average number of players who are fairly priced, given their likely range of outcomes, and fewer players who are likely to out earn their salaries.
For the best picks we can identify today, embrace the unknowable infinite, and read on.
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Noah Syndergaard, SP: $8,400 – Thor has not been his dominant self lately, true, but as a result his salary is deflated, which allows more room for error. He also has the highest probability of a win today, is still racking up the quality starts, and is facing a team prone to striking out more than your average team, with nasty home/road splits. All that said, there is reason for caution here. Cross wind to left at 12 mph could provide a serious boost to fly balls that direction, which is problematic for a pitcher allowing the highest fly ball rate of his career, with more walks and fewer strikeouts to boot.
Wade Miley, SP: $7,500 – Potentially the safest play today, as Baltimore does not boast a potent lineup and Miley has shown he can flirt with 50’s point totals on the upside.
Reynaldo Lopez, SP $6,000 – High upside value play, but he is priced fairly considering the risk. Could just as easily go for 40+ as sub zero, but when he is on he will be a feature in the top lineups of the slate.
Shane Bieber, SP $9,500 – Specifically listed here to caution against his use. The conditions in Cleveland should greatly benefit hitters today, making SP at his salary too risky to play. Apologies in advance if he goes for 50, but we should play the odds in situations like this and avoid.
Milwaukee Brewers – Highest implied run total of any team on the slate, facing Steven Brault, at least for the two innings he’ll last. Slight lean to righties based on the initial LHP splits. Order of preference: Ryan Braun, OF: $3,300, Christian Yelich, OF: $4,900, Hernan Perez, 3B: $2,100, Lorenzo Cain, OF: $3,500, Mike Moustakas, 3B: $3,800, Jesus Aguilar, C/1B: $2,200, Orlando Arcia, SS: $2,500, Manny Pina, C/1B: $2,000
Minnesota Twins – The Twins face Ryan Carpenter today, who is coming off a win and quality start against Tampa Bay, and the wind is blowing in, favoring pitching, but this is still a spot where a righty-heavy Twins stack should come through and deliver value more often than not. Order of preference: Nelson Cruz, OF: $3,100, C.J. Cron, C/1B: $3,500, Mitch Garver, C/1B: $3,200, Jonathan Schoop, 2B: $3,300, Miguel Sano, 3B: $3,500, Jorge Polanco, SS: $4,000, Marwin Gonzalez, 3B: $2,900, Byron Buxton, OF: $3,400, Eddie Rosario, OF: $4,100
Kansas City Royals – Lopez could shut them down, or he could give up 10 runs in the first three innings. Embrace the variance, play some Royals stacks and hope for the blowup. Order of preference: Adalberto Mondesi, SS: $3,800, Whit Merrifield, 2B: $3,500, Ryan O’Hearn, C/1B: $2,300, Nicky Lopez, 2B: $2,400, Jorge Soler, OF: $3,100, Alex Gordon, OF: $3,400, Billy Hamilton, OF: $2,200, Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B: $3,000
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Scattered showers are forecast around Detroit with odds of rain during the game at 15%, but this should not change your lineup construction. Every other game is good to go.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Over/under currently sitting at 9.5 in Cleveland. With the wind blowing out and Tanaka pushed back a day let’s take the over.