I’ll admit, I’m not really smitten with Tyler Mahle ($7,900). He’s a player I didn’t target at all in season-long and I’ve avoided a lot in DFS. Some of that is my own bias as the one time I used him heavily in DFS is the day he gave up seven earned in two IP vs. SF. Today though, I’m going back to the Mahle well. I think some of the problem with Mahle for me is it’s hard to get too excited about a 4 ERA pitcher, which is where his FIP sits and where his ROS projections have him leveling out to. In DFS, strikeouts play and Mahle has those in bunches, rocking a 10.7 K/9. The Twins are Josh Donaldson and a bunch of dudes right now. They have Luis Arraez as their clean-up hitter the past two games, Yes, that Luis Arraez with one dong on the season. This is a choice match-up at a cheap price and I really hope Mahle doesn’t burn me again.
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Zack Wheeler, SP: $10,700 – The Nationals have just become one of my favorite teams to target. We’ve got Juan Soto and eight guys off the purple line. Wheeler should have a field day and is a lock for cash games.
Luis Patino, SP: $6,800 – Next, we’ll dip down in the bargain bin for a match-up against Seattle, always a popular target for DFS purposes. Patino can bring the strikeouts and Seattle strikeout plenty. I think this is a real nice spot for Patino who is coming off a nice 6 IP/8 K against the Yanks.
Brendan Rodgers, 2B: $3,300 – It’s going to be difficult to avoid Coors today with Freeland and Davies on the mound. The only thing that might slow this game down is the weather (more on that later).
Rafael Devers, 3B: $4,100 – There are so many stacking options tonight, it’s going to be tricky finding the right one, but Devers with the platoon advantage on Wily Peralta and his 5.47 FIP should be in lineups regardless.
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $3,400 – You can sneak Gleyber in here too, but at $3,400 Xander is way too cheap.
Shohei Ohtani, OF: $4,500 – Ohtani vs. Lyles…oh my! Yet another pitcher with a 5+ FIP going today, there should be no shortage of offense.
Sam Hilliard, OF: $2,600 – Cheap Coors exposure is always in demand and Hilliard has looked great lately.
Austin Hays, OF: $2,500 – As of now, we still don’t have a confirmed starting pitcher for the Yankees, but if it’s some Joe Blow, I like Hays as a cheap source of points. He’s steady and boring, but the price is right.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Unfortunately for us, our one trouble spot is in Coors with “Possible Light Rain” hanging around all during the scheduled game time. It seems light enough that they could play through it, but who knows. Keep an eye on this one closer to lock.
Doing Lines In Vegas
We have Coors-sized over/unders all over the place today with 10s in NY and DET and a whopping 11.5 in Coors. There are no over/unders below 8 runs, so look for a huge number to take down GPPs tonight.