Good Afternoon DFS’ers and welcome to Monday Afternoon Toilet Talk w/ Jared.
We have a fun slate today that should yield some offense. We have several teams that are in great spots, including the Dodgers, Braves, White Sox, and <insert homer status> Mets. Pitching is void of Aces today so you’ll need to look to find a pitcher that you like. My early lean is on Ryu against the somewhat hot bats of the AAAA Orioles. Let’s dig in to today’s players!
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Hyun Jin Ryu, SP: $9,300 – Over the past two weeks Ryu has some really solid numbers: 2.48 xFIP, 15.9% Swinging Strike Rate, and 12.27 k/9. All look great on the surface. While I do have concerns in playing Ryu, he’s one of the better pitchers going tonight. My concerns are as follow: .105 BABIP, 100% LOB, and facing an Orioles team that isn’t as bad as advertised. He’s going to regress at some point, I just don’t think it will be tonight.
Ross Stripling, SP: $8,100 – He’s one of the bigger favorites on the board. But again, no Aces = all pitchers have some concerns. Of all the pitchers pitching tonight, he has the 2nd highest average exit velocity against over the past two weeks. That said, he also has one of the higher K%’s over the past weeks at 23.4%. Add in that he’s facing a team that K’s at a 27% clip against righties, I’m willing to overlook the high hard hit %.
Kyle Freeland, SP: $7,700 – Freeland isn’t going to blow away batters. He doesn’t K many people and he doesn’t miss bats. What he does do is though is pitch at least six innings a game and gets you the Quality Start bonus. He gets batters to chase at a 35% clip, which leads to soft contact. Of all the pitchers throwing tonight he has by far the most batted ball events and only has one barrelled balls against. Not in love here, but he should be “safe”.
Luke Voit, C/1B: $3,400 – Really like Voit tonight. He’s a lefty smasher so should be in the lineup. He has a career .275 iso against lefties. His weakness is that he chases pitches. However, Perez is a pitcher that doesn’t get people to chase. That’s a recipe for success for Voit.
Ryan Mcmahon, 2B: $2,600 – Has the platoon advantage tonight. He’s also coming of a solid week w/ a .392 woba. While it was in Colorado, I still like him to continue w/ the solid hitting.
Anthony Rendon, 3B: $4,000 – .657 woba over the past week, 5 homers, 11 wRC, the list can go on. He’s expensive, but should continue w/ the hot hitting.
Trea Turner, SS: $3,300 – His price should be much higher. I don’t understand why it isn’t. He had a .521 woba last week, three Homers and a hard hit % of 48%. He should be a lock in your lineups tonight.
Juan Soto, OF: $4,600 – He continues to crush the ball. While Toussaint is a quality pitcher, I just don’t see how he can slow down Soto. He’s on as good of a streak as humanly possible.
Eloy Jimenez, OF: $3,400 – Love the White Sox tonight, but I love Jimenez the most. He’s another hitter that is crushing the ball right now, with a .536 woba over the past week. Don’t look for him to slow down tonight as he has had success against Floyd.
Dominic Smith, OF: $3,300 – If you would have told me two years ago that I’d be writing up Smith as an OF I would have laughed in your face. He’s now one of the best Mets’ hitters. He hit four homers this past week and none were in question as they left the park.
Anthony Santander, OF: $3,300 – Another cheap player that is on a hot streak. While I like Ryu tonight, he’s not going to throw a shutout. Santander is my not so obvious home run call of the night. Look for him to continue his hot streak.
Stacks
My favorite stacks tonight are the White Sox (vs. a pitcher that is lost in Floyd), Dodgers (vs. a pitcher that should still be in the minors) and Braves (vs. a pitcher that has his AARP card).
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Weather shouldn’t be a factor tonight.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Dodgers are your heaviest favorite right now. White Sox, Braves, Dodgers, and Yankees all have the highest implied totals as of right now. I didn’t include the Yankees as a stack because I feel they will be highly owned.
