Look, I’m all about facts here. I have my sources *googles Shelby Miller‘s favorite ice cream…finds nothing…looks under google images…randomly finds naked women…stops writing for a while to do further research* Well, looks like my sources failed me. I can’t verify anything about Miller’s cold dessert of choice but I can verify some other, more factually laden and potentially more useful sets of data. Like for example, Shelby enjoys his friendly confines where he goes from a 6.56 K/9 on the road to a lovely 9 per at home. To no one’s surprise, this shaves about a run off his road ERA down to a ace-like 2.01 in Atlanta. But of course, that’s only half the math. The other? The Rockies and their road woes just never seem to go away as they rank 3rd worst in wRC+ at 81 and a second worst K% at 24.2%. To make matters worse, Colorado might be without Carlos Gonzalez and are already sitting at the bottom in wRC+ in the month of August. They tell you not to kick someone when they’re already down but I’m out here offering you metal-toed boots and I’m paying the ref to look away. That’s the kind of service you get with a $9,500 price tag. I wouldn’t call him a deal, per se, but I would call him a high upside buy as your SP1 on a day where it gets ugly quick past the top end plays. But enough about my high school prom options, let’s get on with it. Here’s my cayenne ice cream hot takes for this Wednesday DK slate…
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David Price, SP: $11,300 – The top end plays today are just excellent but that just means I’m going to look at the one that probably goes under owned by comparison. The Rangers still suffer from ‘suxagainstleftitus’ which has no cure other than getting good right-handed bats in your lineup. Hrm, Mike Napoli? Eh…Chris Archer will be the play but David Price will be your side piece bae.
Gio Gonzalez, SP: $7,500 – Because of a late shuffling of the deck, Gio starts instead of Mad Max so I’m here doing a mad typing to make sure I get him in there. Much like the Rangers, the Padres have been worthless against lefties all year. I wouldn’t look to Gio in cash but for a GPP play, he’s got all the stats behind him…well, minus his own stats but you get what I’m saying.
Patrick Corbin, SP: $7,500 – I keep telling myself ‘never again’ with him until next year but he keeps getting matchups that make sense on paper. The Cardinals sit near the bottom in wRC+ and K% against lefties on the year and Corbin is such a thing. He’s also pitching like a thing that’s four letters that you shout when you watch your SP2 drop a -15 points so this is strictly a GPP play only.
Colby Lewis, SP: $7,400 – The Toronto offense is vaunted, you say. It’s impeccable, you scoff. It’s unbeatable, you denounce. It’s also right hand heavy and Lewis has neutralized righties on the year with a 22.7% K rate vs them to go along with a minuscule 3.7% BB rate. We’re still talking GPP play here, though, so don’t you go sneaking some Colby Jack into your cash sandwich. That’s just gross. Who eats cash?
Kyle Hendricks, SP: $7,200 – His numbers against lefties on the road is usually a sticking point for me to not go near him but since no one outside of enlarged cranium Bonds hits bombs from the left side at AT&T, Hendricks feels like a potential safe play in an oasis of scary.
Yohan Flande, SP: $4,400 – If ya can’t tell from the suggestions, it’s a day to pay up for pitching. The Braves offense has been somewhere between a fat donkey and Nicki Minaj which is to say no matter how you look at it, it’s been a lot of ass. You can’t take that musically or physically with Nicki, it’s accurate. But more back on Flande…he did just shut down the Nats in Coors and could find find himself getting to say ‘You Don’t Mess With the Yohan’ to this messy Atlanta lineup.
James McCann, C: $2,700 – It’s catcher and though I could see paying for Buster Posey at his going price, I’ll look to punt if and when I can…or where I McCann if you prefer the pun. Though it’s only over 84 total career ABs, James has been a boss against lefties so far with a .321 average and 3 HRs to go with a .226 ISO and a 152 wRC+. Plenty of Tigers in play today with Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez taking my eagle eye attention with a hint of interest in Nick Castellanos on the side.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $4,600 – Yes, yes, I did suggest Colby Lewis and now I’m suggesting an opposing batter. Toldja it was a day I’m paying up for pitcher, what more could you need? Colby doesn’t hold back and challenges opposing hitters in the zone which has led to a 1.49 HR/9 vs righty bats on the year. Edwin has been on a tear and I’m all about double E’s.
Adam Lind, 1B: $3,600 – Adam gets to face Cody Anderson. Who’s that you ask? Doesn’t matter, he’ll be gone and forgotten long before you need to care about him other than picking bats against him as he has a .458 wOBA against lefties at home in his short career. Though the sample size be small, the 3.75 K/9 over 48 IP be big…er small as well. Smaller? Whatevs. A Milwaukee stack could be the thing to push you over the top today. If you wanna just stick to the lefties, you can look to Shane Peterson and Scooter Gennett but if you wanna go full bore, Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, and Khris Davis are intriguing.
Jason Kipnis, 2B: $4,200 – I believe in the Jimmy Nelson resurgence and stand behind him in season long but it’s not a day I wanna own him for daily or seasonal. Though he’s pitched much better in the second half and I do very much lurve him, I can’t bring myself to start him against a surging Indians offense, especially when you consider his .368 wOBA against lefties on the year. An Indians stack isn’t warranted but I’d also consider Michael Brantley here.
Justin Turner, 2B/3B: $3,700 – Holmberg should and will be a favorite target on this slate and for good reason: he’s terrible. If I’m selectively stacking, I’ll look to Turner and Yasiel Puig here with maybe a sprinkling of Enrique Hernandez if he bats high enough.
Andres Blanco, 3B/SS: $2,300 – If you haven’t been enjoying the White Andres, you haven’t been living. With Bartolo on the mound, I’m more than willing to consider a full Philly stack but at the very least, I’m getting in on Andres for cash games or for cheap help for my lineup.
Denard Span, OF, $4,200 – Though I’d love a lower price, Tyson Ross will be on the mound and dutifully ignoring any base stealer he puts on. Span gets a walk, steals 2nd and 3rd and then scores, you ain’t got no problems at this price. And before you say it, blow your double negatives out your Nicki Minaj.
Adam Eaton, OF: $3,700 – I haven’t forgotten how bad Rick Porcello has been, it’s just there aren’t many left handed bats from the White Sox to attack him with. Adam Eaton could become Adam Eatin’ in a hurry. Don’t get it? It’s a meme, son. Get with the times.
David Peralta, OF: $3,300 – Do I still believe? That’s a trick question, I didn’t believe to begin with. What I do believe is he had 14 DK points his last time out and 16 prior to that. He sits against lefties and has gone through a cold streak…or have the regression fairies paid him a visit? Inquiring minds would like to know! Eh, at this price, I like the cheap chance for a HR in a good hitter’s park.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The only threat of wet just happens to be in places with a roof over their head. It’s been really nice keeping this section to one or two sentences, yeah?
Doing Lines In Vegas
The king of line mountain goes to Chris Sale with a -200 for him and in the battle of Sox colors. Why didn’t I talk about him above? Well, he’s overpriced and goes up against a hot hitting team in a hitter friendly park. He could K 10 or 12 and still not return price. Sorry, just ain’t for me today unless everyone says the same thing, then I’m GPP intrigued. Behind him we have Archer coming in at -195 at home and then Price at -180 on the road. It’s good to see the Vegas love for David despite not being the home pitcher but the half run bump up to 8.5 does make me crinkle my nose a bit. With Carlos Carrasco going on the DL, I’m going to be heavily watching the CLEvsMIL run line and overall line today. Currently, the Indians sit at -136 so if I see that line waiver, come to me all Brewers bats. There are three games that sit at a high of 8.5: PHIvsNYM, TEXvsTOR, and DETvsLAA. Sprinkling in some bats from all three that make sound financial sense could do you some good.