Shhh, can you keep a secret? Please don’t let him know. I’ll be passing the ‘Do you love me? Check yes or no’ note to Carlos Perez prior to first pitch so please don’t blow my cover, internet, on which I am writing about Alex Meyer for everyone to see. Ok, maybe ‘love’ is a strong word for a pitcher with only 18.2 career innings and a 7.23 ERA. At 26, the shine is probably off this former first round pick, but the course to true ‘love’ – ok ‘like’ – never does run smoothly…especially when it goes through Minnesota! If you know me, which of course you do, you know I have despised the Twins organization for quite some time. This is the team that told Francisco Liriano to pitch to contact. Said Liriano went to Pittsburgh and became a fantasy star again. This is the team that willfully started Eddie Rosario in 2015 and compounded this failure by actually making him a part of their 2016 ‘playoff contending team’. They are one of the worst developers of young talent this league has so whenever I see a pitcher move away from them, my interest is immediately piqued. The cliff’s notes version of Meyer’s scouting report is as follows: good stuff, shaky command. There’s nothing that says this still isn’t a problem, but hey, this is DFS and we care about price and expectations. The Astros are 4th in the league in K% on the year and Meyer rolls in with a 10+ K/9 over the course of 2016. A 10+ K/9 at the $4,000 pitcher min salary? *Inserts ‘OK’ Emoji*. There’s obvious no floor here so rostering Meyer is strictly for tourneys, but 16 points isn’t an unlikely outcome and really, that’s all you want when your pitcher is a free space. So who will I pair him with? What types of wondrous bats can I pay for with him on my roster? Follow on to find out. Here’s my ‘he loves me, he loves me not’ taeks for this Friday DK slate…
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Anthony Desclafani, SP: $11,200 – If you’re going Meyers, you have the pick of the litter in terms of your SP1 so none of my talk will be really about pricing, but about matchup. I don’t like Danny Duffy’s matchup, so I won’t talk about him but I can appreciate Disco’s matchup tonight just like I appreciated it when it was the same for Chad Kuhl. Chad dropped 23,9 DK points when I suggested him and the reasoning for me touting him applies to Desclafani tonight. In fact, there’s room for even better with Anthony tonight. I’d guess he’ll be a relatively popular go, but he’s completely serviceable in both formats. Come do The Hustle with me.
Cole Hamels, SP: $9,300 – Have you ever noticed that decent pitchers tend to own the team that just slammed them in their previous outing? That’s what I’m thinking happens with Hamels today. Cole’s last outing had him yielding six ER over six innings at home against this same A’s team. The difference this go? Honestly not much except that Hamels’ splits on the year indicate he’s more comfortable on the road. A trip to O.Co usually does a pitcher good anyway.
James Paxton, SP: $8,400 – A bit more than I’d like but if you read the opening paragraph, you know I hate the Twins and I think Paxton drops a 30 burger on this MIN org. Don’t @ me, I’m using him in both formats tonight.
Zach Davies, SP: $7,400 – If Disco is as popular as I think he’ll be, Davies could fly under the radar with a similarly good matchup. The Reds are one of the worst road teams this year overall, posting the second lowest wRC+ when traveling away from the GABP. Davies has shown better at home overall this year, making this one feel safe in both cash and GPP.
Francisco Liriano, SP: $7,300 – The Yankees are terrible against lefties as a whole this year and if Liriano has his stuff on point, this could be a huge payoff. Two issues to note: one, Liriano finding his stuff can sometimes be like Magoo looking for the broadside of an elephant and two, Gary Sanchez. GPP only for me here.
Austin Hedges, C: $2,800 – Called up on Wednesday, Hedges has had a great run at AAA this year, slugging nearly .600 with 21 HRs. Obviously Petco is night and day vs the PCL, but the hitting talent looks to be there. It’s September, grab the freshly harvested bats on the cheap, friends. And while we’re on the subject, I kinda wanna have me a Padres stack tonight with Wil Myers rolling again if they follow their youth movement push. Gimme the one ell’d Willie, Hunter Renfroe, Ryan Schimpf, and Manuel Margot while we’re at it.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $4,800 – He’s back home and already has two HRs on the week heading into Thursday night’s action. I’ll pay up for that parrot trot, thank you very much.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B: $3,700 – I get it, Duffy is good but…yeah, this is Miggy. Ghosts in the DK algorithm machine here, take advantage.
Logan Forsythe, 2B: $4,500 – While everyone splurges on Brian Dozier and Trea Turner, it lets you and I remember that Forsythe has been a viable 2B starter since last year, especially against lefties. So lets shave off about 1K in expenses and still get our lead off ABs at 2B shall we? While we’re here, let’s just get it over with and say Evan Longoria is in play as well.
Joey Wendle, 2B: $2,600 – The uneffable Wendle is just too cheap to overlook in cash if he keeps leading off. I hear you out there saying ‘you misspelled ineffable’. But did I, though, Sky types with pinky to corner of his mouth. Joey is about as unsexy as things can get back that works just fine in cash if it gets four or five plate appearances at this price.
Todd Frazier, 3B: $4,600 – The reverse splits are slight, but Bauer has been less successful against righties than he has been against lefties this year, especially at home. I am feeling that instead of down goes Frazier, it’ll be up goes Frazier…like in to the bleachers. Look, we don’t have a group to bounce these bad jokes off of, sometimes we just gotta wing it and hope they land.
Jonathan Villar, 3B/SS: $3,600 – Much like Miggy, we’re dipping too low here in terms of pricing, especially for a guy who has 16 HRs and 58 steals. It’s called a box score and Villar can fill it up in a hurry.
Jordy Mercer, SS: $3,700 – Full disclosure, Villar is likely to be my SS for the day but that doesn’t mean I can’t give you a bonus throw in here; I’m just that giving. Mercer vs a lefty is like a vanilla ice cream cone…I mean like it’s good and stuff, but c’mon, let’s not get silly allegorical here and call it great. I’m available during my off time if you have room in your company’s advertising and promotional department.
J.D. Martinez, OF: $3,700 – Ok, maybe I was wrong about there being a glitch in the DK algo. Maybe 3,700 is just the going rate for HRs today.
Josh Bell, 1B/OF: $3,000 – My Wednesday ringing of the Bell resulted in 0/4 with 3 Ks so clearly it’s double down time. Gio Gonzalez is hittable. I mean that in the baseball way, not the wink, wink, nudge, nudge way. Though he had some great locks to start the year, I’m not gonna lie…though while we’re here, let’s say argh and go for a Pirates stack. Andrew McCutchen is surging, the aforementioned Mercer is ok, Starling Marte is a star, and Jung-Ho Kang is da bomb dot gov.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Looks to be a beautiful Fall day in all ballparks. Well except the ones not played during the day. Then it’ll just be a beautiful Fall night. That said, there are expected to be 10+ MPH winds blowing out to right in Detroit tonight as well as in Oakland. Use that info as you will.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The heavy favorite on the day goes to the early game slate Jake Arrieta and his Cubs as he holds a -200 line over the Cardinals. If you’re dipping into that schedule, he makes for a fine cash game play. If you’re looking for heavy favorites later on, well there are some but they got some caveats. Liriano sits at -190 but the run line for the game has jumped a half run to 9.5. Though this also enforces my thoughts on him for a GPP go even more as that 0/u will likely scare off a lot of the DFS crowd. Meanwhile, Yovani Gallardo and his Orioles hold a -181 line over Arizona in a 10 o/u game. I don’t know if I’d call YoGa a sneaky play; probably moreso a crazy play but funny things happen in September. Of course, I now just also gave you the two highest O/U games of the day. If you’re looking for runs elsewhere, HOUvsLAA as well as MINvsSEA sit at 9. An interesting O/U on the day is the 8.5 in the MIAvsATL tilt. That ballpark showing anything near a 9 usually means Vegas smells runs. Could be a low owned GPP lineup to stack Braves and Marlins today.