First and foremost, I want you to know I worked very hard on that title.  Like, I spent all of 10 minutes on it.  That’s a million years in Fantasy Sports years so be thankful.  Admittedly, I didn’t really watch Buffy growing up…or ever for that matter.  Believe it or not, not every person who grew up with the 90s as their child/teen playground watched every bad show produced.  Dawson’s Creek?  Nope.  Frasier?  Eh, got the comedy, but it wasn’t my bag.  Honestly, Seinfeld, Simpsons, and a plethora of awesome cartoons ruled my World.  I’m here to tell you that Duckman was the shizz.  Still is today.  Also was a fan of The Critic, Ren & Stimpy…basically, cartoons gone wrong worked for me.  I guess what I’m trying to say was, Sarah Michelle Gellar didn’t do it for me so I had zero reason to watch the show.  I’d guess this true of most males my age but what the frick do I know, Duckman and The Critic only lasted 5 seasons total, Buffy 6!  Alright, I just finished one of my worst fantasy football drafts with Nick Capozzi, JFOH, and crew and am drifting down the bitter path so let’s get back on track.  Danny Duffy was a sleeper for some coming into the year.  Yeah I don’t know why either, I’m just putting that out there.  What I do know is that the Orioles on the year K 22.7% of the time against lefties and own a 25.4% K rate to go with an 80 wRC+ over their last 14 days.  I wouldn’t go anywhere near him in cash but for tourneys, he makes for an intriguing high upside SP2 and at the middling price of $5,600, he allows you to price in all the big bats your heart desires.  Obviously it would be a nicer call if Duffy were in KC but beggars can’t be choosers when searching sub $6K.  So go…heck, I don’t know.  I’m supposed to make a Buffy reference here.  I like SMG in The Grudge, does that count?  Let’s just roll on.  Here’s my ‘at least it was better than Twilight’ hot takes for this Friday DK slate…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Dallas Keuchel, SP: $13,400 – I wouldn’t pay this price in cash but as my SP1 in tourneys, I think Keuchel will go underowned.  He’s been in a groove but has bad home/road splits overall this year.  The Angels on the year are sub-par against lefties and Keuchel always has the potential to go deep into a game as well as keep a solid K line while he’s at it.  Debbie may do Dallas but I don’t think she does Anaheim.  Yeah, I’m not entirely sure what that means either.  Moving on…

Hisashi Iwakuma, SP $8,500 – Jake Arrieta is the cash game play if you can figure out how to afford him and still put bats in your lineup that don’t require you donate blood to afford them.  We got that out of the way?  Good, let’s move on.  Rockies have two hot bats in Arenado and CarGo with a possibly heating up Corey Dickerson off of injury.  I mention them because Tyson Ross mostly shut them down yesterday with 6 K over 7 innings but all three of those players hit solo shots and Ross had a stomach flu.  Overall, I still adhere to the Rockies not hitting on the road.  Hisashi will probably be a high end target along with my next call but sometimes ya gotta talk chalk.

Steven Matz, SP: $8,400 – You’ll need/want to keep an eye on Matz’ status throughout the day as he exited his previous start after quoting a Beatles song.  It’s always possible he could be scratched so stay tuned.  If he is in, I can’t see how he isn’t even chalkier than Hisashi which may make Hisashi less owned given the similar price range of the two.  Why?  Because Barves.  That wasn’t a typo, that’s their name now.  That’s what you get when you trade for Swisher and Bourn in the twilight of their careers and play them every damned day.

Ervin Santana, SP: $6,500 – He’s faced the Astros twice in a row and has scored 35+ DK points twice in a row.  And that’s really all I have to say about this.  Santana might have learned how to pitch again and against a right hand heavy lineup that isn’t overly intimidating, I’m interested to see how much Magic is left in this Ervin.

Erik Johnson, SP: $4,700 – Your DGAF YOLO swag GPP play of the day.  The Twins have not fared well against righties all year and have been mired in a two week slump with a 24% K rate to go with an 84 wRC+.  I wouldn’t hold Erik’s last outing vs the Royals against him much.  Not many pitchers, good or bad, do well or rack up K’s vs that bunch but the Twins are a different story.  If Josh Johnson has a brother in porn named Gosh, Something tells me Erik has a bro named Erikt.  Speaking of, he might leave you feeling that way after his start today.

James McCann, C: $3,000 – Not sure how to gauge the how and the why here but James has stepped it up against some decent arms of late and they aren’t even lefties.  I’d be lying if I said anything other than ‘he’s hot’ as my analysis but if you’re not punting or looking at J.T. Realmuto for similar reasons, I’m not sure what you’re doing today at catcher.  Overall, the Tigers have been very light hitting of late but I think Cody Anderson changes those things.  I’m fine with looking to your usual suspects in Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez here as well, just not in cash.

Joey Votto, 1B: $5,000 – If I’m paying up at 1B today, I’m inclined to take one of the leaders in wRC+ over the last 14 days who gets to face a pitcher in Lackey who has struggled mightily against lefties on the year, especially away from home.  Just gotta hope he doesn’t ask for time…

Billy Butler, 1B: $3,500 – Mr. Moobs has been on fire of late but no one has noticed or cared since he plays for the A’s and bats 7th most days.  Definitely a tourney only play but Colby Lewis gives up 1.54 HR/9 to righties on the year and also struggles against lefties in terms of wOBA this year.  A mini OAK stack of Butler, Josh Reddick and potentially a healthy Stephen Vogt could be perfect today.  Meanwhile, Danny Valencia fits the HR/9 narrative as well so don’t hesitate going double dutch on some A’s.

Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B: $3,700 – If it feels like you’ve heard about Logan facing a lefty all week, don’t worry, you’re not going crazy.  At least not in this case…anyhoo, Forsythe does indeed get another lefty on the mound which means I get to tout his 3rd best ISO against lefties on the season when he does.  Important PSA: I write tomorrow as well so if another lefty is on the mound, I might just CTRL+C this and CTRL+V it then.  Overall, I’m ok with Evan Longoria but Wade Miley has pitched well of late so I’m not huge on challenging him right now.

Martin Prado, 2B/3B: $3,200 – Not a sexy play by any means but Prado vs a lefty isn’t bad either when you consider he puts up an .843 OPS and a 125 wRC+ against them.  Nice and cheap, just how my cash teams like it.

Kyle Seager, 3B: $4,800 – Wanna know who owns the highest wRC+ over the last 14 days?  Yup.  Chad Bettis is on the mound…so is Seager gonna be in every lineup today?  You Better, you Better, you Bettis!

Starlin Castro, SS: $3,100 – Hard to tell who will and won’t be in for the Cubs of late but I’m gambling that they’ll put in Castro along with Austin Jackson with a lefty on the mound.  Now watch them start Chris Denorfia and Tommy La Stella.  It’s Maddoning!  But before it gets over looked, yes I do like AJax here as well as Kris Bryant and Dexter Fowler.

Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $4,500 – Choo’s second half numbers have been off the charts and gets to return to a park that benefits lefties, facing a player who can’t get lefties out in Jesse Chavez?  I do Choo Choo Choo Choose you!  While we’re here, let’s point out that maybe Will Venable leads off and provides a cheap shot at a slam and legs.

Chris Young, OF: $2,800 – Yes, it’s David Price.  Doesn’t mean that Crispie doesn’t own the 9th highest ISO against lefties on the year.  Was that a double negative?  NM, he’s a tourney play; treat him as such.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

We may have some weather woes today so be mighty careful.  CINvsSTL looks to have some weather concerns overall at the moment so be sure to check and see if it’s gonna go live or has potential to be cut short or even PPD’d.  Same goes for CLEvsDET which looks like it’ll be wet and soppy all day and just a question of whether or not there’s a window of play opportunity available.

Doing Lines In Vegas

It should come as no shock that the Cubs and Arrieta are the heaviest of Vegas favs for tonight with the PHIvsCHC tilt sitting at -275 for Chicago with a 7 o/u.  As I alluded to above, don’t let that over/under scare you, a Cubbies stack is in play.  The second and third highest go to Iwakuma and Matz at -185 and -180, respectively.  As mentioned, they’ll be the chalk.  As much as I like Chris Archer, the Red Sox offense has been just too good for me to tangle with them and they don’t K much even when they go bad.  Archer makes for an intriguing tourney play but not one I’d tout on today’s slate.  It should come as no surprise that the high o/u of the day belongs to TEXvsOAK at 9.5.  I mean, I only suggested about a bajillion bats from that game.  Some o/u that to a half run slide are CINvsSTL, ARIvsLAD, and SFvsSD.  The SFvsSD tilt joins TBvsBOS, PHIvsCHC, and LAAvsHOU as the lows on the day at 7 o/u.  Vegas doesn’t really like my Duffy nor my Johnson calls but hey, that’s why they’re GPP, against the grain plays.  The house always wins until it doesn’t, fam.

  1. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    Call me crazy, nevermind, I always do, but I feel you wrote he lede for me as I need streamers and was on the fence about using him today in ‘perts. Did you look into my soul last night over the live chat?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Nah, I just looked into your notes on your computer folder. You got hacked, yo!

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Sky: so then you saw my master plan.

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Sky: now I dropped Duffy, stop messing with my head sky!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Pick him up again, he’s gonna be great

  2. PhrasingBackInTheMix says:
    (link)

    In a GPP lineup where I’m using Ervin as my SP2, I’d like to pair him with a front-end guy. You have a preference between Price and Archer? (Can’t afford Keuchel in this scenario.)

    Archer is at home and is sometimes unstoppable, but the Red Sox have been rolling along and don’t K much. Price gets a tough assignment @NYY, but Streamonator likes him and every so often a LHP seems to do really well against those guys. I’m stuck!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      David Price is the optimal play between the two; the righty bats in the Yanks lineup outside of A-Rod aren’t as scary as they are with Teix in the lineup.

      • PhrasingBackInTheMix says:
        (link)

        @Sky: Thanks, really appreciate it!

        I did well last night because so many people’s lineups got rained out… it makes me feel kind of like a cheater, and kind of SUPER SMART for avoiding those games.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Ha, not cheating at all. Anyone playing games with PPD potential are taking on risk and they know it. They wanted to win with low ownership, but weatherman 1, risk takers 0 last night.

  3. DFS noob says:
    (link)

    You mention a difference in strategy for Tourney’s vs Cash games. What is the biggest difference for building a lineup for a tournament compared to a head to head matchup?

    My guess is that for a tournament you want to go with guys that will be owned less, and for cash games you want safer plays?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Cash game = safe, GPP = smart risk/pivot plays

      A cash game lineup, you’re focused on the top pitching arms on the slate, in particular who has the best Vegas odds and also who is getting tagged as the SP1 for the day’s slate. Also when considering lineups, you want to target guys higher in the batting order because opportunity wins out more often than not

      A GPP lineup, you’re open to more variance at pitching. You can still roster the ‘chalk’ pitchers of the night, but looking at some guys like Duffy or Ervin Santana make sense so you can bolster your hitting roster with strong plays. Batting order isn’t the issue anymore. You’re not worried about opportunity as much as you are upside. I think Billy Butler has 18 point upside today so I don’t care if he bats 7th or 3rd. ‘Less owned’ players is a slippery slope. It’s not about having a lesser owned play as much as it is having the right combination. Avoiding a guy just because he’ll be high owned isn’t optimal for GPP; you just want the best plays for the day. However, if two guys have similar upside, play the same position, and are priced similarly but only one is getting the publicity, looking to the guy who isn’t getting talked about in that scenario is a pivot play where you’re looking for low ownership because anyone with X amount of dollars is going to go after the more talked about player over the other one. For example, today at $5K, Joey Votto will probably be very highly owned based on what I covered above. However, Chris Davis is $5K as well and has great upside today. Davis is probably low owned because of Votto’s likely high ownership. You dig? Sorry if this was too much for one sitting, hopefully it helped.

      • DFS noob says:
        (link)

        @Sky:

        Not too much at all, thank you! Much more than i expected, really appreciate the thorough response. My foray on DraftKings the past week is going well so far, thanks in large part to Razzball. I still prefer season long leagues, but this offers a fun twist to keep things interesting every night (especially when my baseball team had a 1st week bye in my H2H playoffs!)

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Haha excellent, glad to help and glad the content is as well. Good luck this week for DFS and next week for your playoffs!

  4. Teddy Heater says:
    (link)

    Sky, Ugh the rainouts absolutely killed me yesterday I had 78 points with Brantley, Almonte, Simmons, Chisenhall and Olivera with Arrieta, Severino, Rizzo, Ajax and Ross still set to go. I can’t even count how many times this has happened to me this year. The rain on the East coast has been ridiculous this year, killed me time and time again. It seems like when they say there’s a 10% chance of rain is more like 100%. Santana has owned Houston the last two times out, I love his price but I’m scurred. Matz said his blister was because of the humidity in Miami, he better not B out in the A-T-L tonight. Anyway’s here’s what I got for tonight:

    Keuchel
    Iwakuma
    Arencibia
    Goldie
    Forsythe
    Seager
    O’Malley
    Choo
    Mahtook
    Ruggiano (I can go Krispie or Almonte and upgrade T Beckham for O’Malley, thoughts?)

    Matz
    Duffy
    McCann
    Votto
    Forsythe
    Carpenter (I wanted to get Bryant in, but the lefty match up is early)
    Asdrubal (I can go Lindor vs Verlander SS was thin in matchups)
    Cruz
    Pollock
    Grandy

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @Teddy Heater: where are you in the update, I talk walking dead

      • Teddy Heater says:
        (link)

        @J-FOH: Rough week, sad trombone. We were supposed to be fostering a Pug just for the weekend, but we decided to hold on to him because the previous foster was having trouble with fights. Needless to say I fell in love with him and although it’s been like the longest week ever I can say we’ve made a ton of progress. We’re 2 whole days without an incident and he’s got the schedule down. He’s absolutely adorable and he love, love, loves people, but other dogs not so much. He doesn’t like to share his humans, but he’s getting better. I will say he’s one of the best office dogs I’ve had to date. Now he trusts me he sleeps the day away under my desk instead of freaking out over little noises. The throwaways just need extra time and love for their real personality to come through, I can’t believe someone dropped this beautiful dog off at the shelter. I’ll swap out my gravatar so you can see him.

        • Teddy Heater says:
          (link)

          @Teddy Heater: This is Mr Butters, but Butters for short

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      I saw the weather for yesterday’s slate and gave it the full on nah wave and am very thankful for it. That’s a B from Apt 23 with your LU, though, sounds like it would’ve been killer. I strongly suggest you get a twitter account and follow Kevin Roth from Rotogrinders. His weather analysis is usually on point and he gives both a morning review and then a review about 30 minutes before lineups lock. He’s my light in the dark storm.

      I dig both. I have actually fiddled with McCann in my LUs as well, just seems every time I roster him, he goes 0’fer. Not scientific, I know, just can’t remember a time where he’s scored me more than a single or a walk. Overall I think you’re picking on the right situations so I don’t hate your plays. Mets exposure makes a lot of sense even though I didn’t discuss any. I’m starting to search for a non-Forsythe play at 2B since now everyone has caught on. I wanna roster Rougned but I hate the price tag.

      I don’t mind Ruggiano, will depend where he bats in the LU, though. Could also consider Reimold since that LU doesn’t have Duffy; he’s been batting lead off vs LHP of late.

      RE: Carpenter, they swapped who was starting when on me or I read the 5 time as EST and not PST for Morgan. Either way, not a bad get on Carpenter but I’d probably price myself down further and just go Longo. In a tourney, I don’t care how much money is left over, I just want the best plays (not saying Carpenter isn’t a great play, just to be clear).

      RE: Asdrubal I like it and agree: SS is pretty icky today. I’ll be searching for punts or playing As-Cab myself.

      • Teddy Heater says:
        (link)

        @Sky: Thanks for the suggestion! Almonte, Votto and Carpenter are all out. I’m not messing with the rain tonight, Reimold & Longo in. Good luck this weekend and I’ll still post comments after I win big in Football this weekend. I got a few tickets I won in baseball that will be getting cashed in for Sunday!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Ha, I have a few myself; good luck to you in the football world cuz if I don’t win, I hope you do!

          • Teddy Heater says:
            (link)

            @Sky: I feel like i put together a solid roster, but the 1st week it’s sooooo hard to get a pulse on everything, This what I put together earlier

            Tannehill
            Hill
            L Murray
            Julio
            Landry
            D Adams
            Donnell
            Martin
            Bucs D (I really like NYJ & Mia D but I was $100 short of my perfect line up)

            • Sky

              Sky says:
              (link)

              Looks super solid and agree it’s hard to get a read on early NFL seasons; it’s a time I rely on the health of defenses and offensive parts/lineman to make some determining factors for me. I have 3 LUs so far with some variance but not a major amount. Any space where I don’t list the player it’s because they’re in the same spot on the other roster:

              Bradford
              Ivory
              Martin |
              John Brown
              Cobb
              J. Matthews
              C. Gillmore
              Julio Jones
              Packers

              Dalton
              Martin
              Ivory
              Green
              Matthews
              Julio Jones
              Walker
              John Brown
              Vikings

              Working on a 3rd one. I see no reason to veer off my RBs so that probably means they’re the wrong choice but they’re my tickets and I’m sticking to it. Probably building a Palmer/Brown stack with my 3rd LU and hopefully win a few more tickets to try others.

Comments are closed.