I always get a bit sentimental this time of year. The leaves start changing, green turns to vibrant orange, crisp yellow, lavish purple. The thought that I’m getting older creeps into the back of my mind and begins to fester, like a mouse gnawing on the old bones of a once sturdy home. I start thinking about the things I said I’d do and haven’t done, the things I always wanted to do and never have, and the things I said I’d never be and how I became those very things…and of course, this all coincides with the end of the boys of summer, as those days of 30 teams playing baseball whittles down to the merry few that were the best on the year. Then the numbers shrink a little bit, then they shrink a little bit more, until one team is crowned the victor and they all go home to that long silence that winter brings without baseball. I tell ya, some people really dig seeing the baseball season winding down. They get into the groove of the football year and then begin their slow trudge of learning all that happened in baseball over the winter months around February. For me, I enjoy football but baseball is always tops…bae’s ball if you will. And with that, I am saying good bye for the year and signing out with…wait, what? Colby Lewis?!? Am I really gonna do this? Yeah, I think so. As bad as Colby has struggled since his return from the DL, I think we get the start that tells his coaches he should be part of the starting rotation in the playoffs as the Rays have had some slumbering bats of late. Over their last 7, the Rays have a wRC+ of 80 and a K rate of 28.5%. In fact, their 14 game peer in looks eerily similar at 83 and 28.2%, respectively. Throw in the third worst K rate against righties on the year and you have a chance at fantasy glory going with Colby today. Because of recent production, I’d only look to Lewis in my tourneys today but as we know, Coors and Coors South looms so we’re gonna have to do some penny pinching to get in on said action. But let’s talk about that later. For now, let Sky sign off for the year with you in one final hurrah. Here’s my not as gloomy taeks for this Saturday DK slate…
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Clayton Kershaw, SP: $13,800 – On a day where it might be hard to pay for Kershaw given the bats scramble likely to happen, I say Kershaw is a great play in all formats today. Admittedly, most of the arms on this slate are less than enticing, but taking Kershaw and pairing him with a low priced schlub looks pretty nice on a day like this.
Jon Lester, SP: $11,100 – Shhhh, don’t tell anyone but – looks around to make sure no one is close enough to hit me – Lester makes more sense today in cash than Kershaw. He’s got Clay beat on both matchup and price by a wide margin. Yet I have no doubt people scramble to force Kershaw in. Take advantage.
Hisashi Iwakuma, SP: $8,200 – Something about pitching in Safeco makes ‘Kuma feel safe…hrm, not sure why that would be. Though the ERA and the wOBA don’t speak to this effect, it really comes down to the K’s and the B’s…specifically the BB’s. Iwakuma jumps from an 8.8% K%-BB% ratio on the road to a 15.9% at home. Maybe he challenges hitters more because he’s not worried about getting taken deep? Maybe his momma cooks for him when he’s in Seattle? Maybe we’re overthinking this and should just enjoy him in all formats? Rhetorical!
James Shields, SP: $6,900 – I’ve made it well known my disdain for the Twins as an org and have shown you ways to pick on them many a time, including just this last Wednesday. My disdain isn’t on high alert today, however, as Shields just ain’t that guy anymore. I’m ok in tourneys here but I swear to God the guy/gal that calls Shields for cash today needs a swift kick to their crotch.
Tim Adleman, SP: $5,500 – The narrative of a Cubs team slumbering could be considered greatly over-exaggerated when looking at the stats but this is the same Adleman that put up 16.7 against these Cubs just under two weeks ago. He’s not walked a batter in two straight games, including that game at Wrigley and for these reasons, I see a good tourney play here for today, especially if Lester is the popular get on the day.
Austin Hedges, C: $2,600 – He hasn’t done much to dig himself out of the near minimum salary hole, but Coors South does funny things to bats. Well one funny thing: it can wake a slumbering one up. And at this price, you’re getting what you need even if he does nothing: a cheap catcher. How’s that for hedging?
Chris Davis, 1B: $3,400 – So I started searching for Crush, knowing he’s struggled a bit this season and knowing he’d have a few bucks knocked off his price. I mean, he’s playing in the second nicest place for lefty hitters outside of Coors, he’s gotta be priced maybe mid to low $4K range, right? Couldn’t find him, finally had to search his name. Saw the price and did the sideways eyes emoji five times over. Yeah, you all can have your big 5K 1Bs today, I’m fine here.
Ryan Schimpf, 2B/3B: $3,900 – The all too predictable slump hit Schimpf just in time to remind people ya just can’t strike out 30% of the time and hit HRs like you’re Barry Bonds on juice while riding an Alex Rodriguez Centaur. That said, a bomb last night makes me think an encore is coming. Throw the Schimpf back on the barbie, mate!
Manny Machado, 3B/SS: $3,700 – A slumping Manny is an unhappy Manny. An unhappy Manny finds a way to get happy and Severino is pretty good at helping slumping hitters stop slumping. And then you look at that price and just nod your head. Look, it’ll be a day where there’s lots of sexy stacks and most will start at 3B with Nolan Arenado or Josh Donaldson. The great thing is you can swing Machado over to SS if you have enough bones to have a go that way.
Brandon Drury, 3B/OF: $3,300 – I entered this season thinking Drury could be good, but figured this year would prove it either way. I can honestly say I’m still not sure but against a lefty and said lefty being Clayton Richard, good isn’t a word we need to worry about.
Jose Peraza, OF/SS: $3,600 – I’m all about the bargain bin today and even if you like Lester today, you know if Peraza gets on first, he’ll probably see 2nd and 3rd soon thereafter. Pereza could get a hit or a walk coupled with two steals does good at this price and there’s room for more.
J.J. Hardy, SS: $2,400 – Ok, ok, enough Orioles, I know, but Baltimore is priced like they’re facing Randy Johnson today and I just don’t get it. Not so subtle Baltimore has been brought to you piecemeal today so let’s just throw in Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones while we’re here. You’re welcome.
Hunter Renfroe, OF: $2,600 – He has 4 HRs for his MLB career. See, that’s what they call messing with stats. I didn’t tell you how many games he’s played at this level: 9. The fact all four have been hit in Petco makes having a ‘froe today groovy.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Though there might be a bit of moisture out there today, it doesn’t look like the kind that’ll ruin anything. As always, be on high twitter alert for any developments.
Doing Lines In Vegas
It should come as no shock that the top priced pitching options today have the best lines on their side as Lester and his Cubs hold the edge against the Reds at -210 while Kershaw and Los Doyers have a -200 line against the Giants. Colon at -180 against the Phillies doesn’t intrigue me since he’s admitted to having a foot injury and if a Mets doctor is the one taking care of it, I can promise you its gangrene. If you’re in the mood for runs, we have an intriguing open vs current in the BOSvsTOR tilt, originally 8 and now 9.5. Expect fireworks here. Of course, it’s a Coors day so the COLvsMIL game sits as the big dog in the room at 12.5, which is actually up a half run from open. Meanwhile, AZvsSD slid down from 10 to 9.5, but it’s hard to get worried there. The only game under the 8 run marker is SFvsLAD. Remember last year when we were just looking for a game with an 8 o/u?!? Ah memories…anyhoo, y’all have a great offseason from baseball and be sure to check in on our football and basketball bros. I’d link but I have faith you can read ‘FOOTBALL’ and ‘BASKETBALL’ in big letters at the top of the page. You’re smart like that. Peace!