Happy Friday y’all! I hope it’s a “Good” Friday for all of you reading, and there are few things that can perk up a Friday more than putting a few extra digital dollars in your account playing DFS.
The term “no-brainer” implies a decision that is so easy, so simple, so lacking possible folly, that even a complete idiot, moron, maroon, imbecile, etc, could make it. Folks, dare I say…we have one of those today? New York Mets pitcher Chris Bassitt (FD: $10,400/DK: $8,800) is facing the Arizona Diamondbacks, and before we even get to Bassitt, let’s get to the Snakes. Small Sample Size applies here (I’m talking about the article only, lady DFS players…or am I?!?!) (wait, I don’t think that’s a selling point for me) but so far this season, the D-backs are last in runs, last in team AVG, last in team OBP, and last in team OPS. Logically, it would also follow that they’re last in hitting vs RHPs and the stats back that up. As luck would have it, Bassitt is a righty. In his first outing this year, Bassitt hounded the Washington Nationals into a 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 K day of misery, and everything sets up for a “ruff” outing for the Arizona bats vs. Bassitt. The Mets offense should be able to score enough against most pitchers, but certainly Zach Davies today, to provide some breathing room. The only possible worry is a reasonably strong wind howling out to all fields. Roster Bassitt today with extreme confidence, and let’s see how ridiculously this no-brainer pick can blow up in all of our faces! I can’t wait to be Wile E. Coyote to the Diamondbacks’ anvil. I’m ending this paragraph before I make more dog puns.
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Brad Keller, SP: $9,400- Mostly a match-up play here, as Keller isn’t going to be confused by anybody as one of the upper-tier hurlers in MLB. The Tigers thus far are bottom-8 in the league vs RHPs, Kauffman is no good for hitters, the wind should be blowing in, and right now Keller and the Royals lineup may be a little safer bet than Skubal and the Motor City Kitties.
Carlos Rodon, SP: $10,100 – Rodon was Rodon-culus in his first outing of the year, throwing his fastball over 2 mph harder than his average last year while striking out 12 Marlins in only five innings. Cleveland’s lineup is more potent than Miami’s, but the only thing keeping Rodon from elite status is health, and right now, he’s healthy. If you are one to pay up for pitching in DFS, this is a guy to pay up for today.
Anthony Rizzo, C/1B: FD: $3,600/DK: $5,000 – Rizzo is off to a great start on the young season, already launching three longballs. Rizzo has notable platoon splits that favor him against RHPs. A date vs. righty Jordan Lyles and a favorable wind at his back, Rizzo can be bet on to produce some profitable results today.
Trey Mancini, C/1B: FD: $2,600/DK $3,200 – OK, this one’s a cheapie, but the gamble here can allow you to go bigger elsewhere. Mancini slugs nearly .500 career vs. lefties, and gets to face Jordan Montgomery with the wind blowing out heavily. Out of all of Jor-Mont’s road innings, the second most have come against the O’s, and he has a .500 slugging and .859 OPS against him at Camden Yards. I can’t decide if I’m more pro-Mancini vs. Jor-Mont or more anti-Jor-Mont at Camden Yards with a strong wind blowing out.
Max Muncy, 2B: FD: $ 3,100/DK: $4,400 – No fancystats here; Muncy is just too good of a hitter, he’s playing at home, his opponent is an inexperienced righty in Vladimir Gutierrez, and he’s cheap. Hard to go wrong with Dodgers starters going for $3,100, no matter what position.
Alex Bregman, 3B: FD: $3,700/DK: $4,900 – Bregman torches lefties to a .314/.401/.567 career line, and gets to face LHP Marco Gonzales at Safeco, where he also has a .315/.360/.458 career line. He’s also off to a great start this year. Let’s not get too cute here.
Gavin Lux, SS: FD: $3,000 – Unlike Muncy, Lux *is* off to a great start this year, hitting .353 with 9 R/RBI. Facing Gutierrez and in that Dodgers lineup, Lux should be able to give you a profit at his cost today.
Aaron Judge, OF: FD: $3,900/DK: $5,400 – I wanted to go with either Judge or teammate Giancarlo Stanton, and Judge’s stats at Camden Yards are laughable, culminating with a 1.064 OPS. Plus, I kind of want to see if Judge can hit a ball 650 feet with that wind behind him.
Marcell Ozuna, OF: FD: $3,300/DK: $4,100 – Ozuna slugs sixty points higher vs LHPs and has an OPS that’s 70 points higher vs LHPs, and he’s facing Friars lefty Mackenzie Gore in Gore’s first MLB start. Gore used to be one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, hit a rough patch, then bounced back late last year and had a great spring training. I say we make Gore prove it.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Good news–weather shouldn’t impact the actual playing of any games today, so you don’t need to avoid teams/players for any possible postponements. However, the wind should be strong in numerous venues. Got the stones to play Marcus Stroman (FD: $7,500) in Colorado? Maybe you do if you know the winds will be blowing in strongly during the game. (I still wouldn’t, but if you’re ballsy and want to go against conventional wisdom of “Don’t start pitchers in Colorado,” this may be a time to do it). Kauffman Field is already a pitcher’s park, and strong winds blowing in during the Tigers vs. KC tilt won’t help those batters go big fly. Camden Yards moved back and raised their LF fence this off-season but it may not be enough to hold the baseballs launching out with a 12+ mph wind blowing out to left all game. I wonder if the Yankees have any powerful RH batters? *thinking*…
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Phillies are +172 underdogs on the road against Pablo Lopez and the Marlins. Even though they’re pitching Zach Eflin, the Phillies can hit off of anybody, and that seems like a good road dog to gamble on. The Cubs/Rockies game in Coors Field has an O/U of 10.5; German Marquez and Marcos Stroman are the pitchers, and with the wind strongly blowing in, let’s get nuts and take the under. No, I haven’t been drinking. Much.