For a few days it’s been all quiet on the closer front. Usually in the lede, I talk about a change in regime and the pluses/minuses and my opinion on it. There hasn’t been one for two whole weeks… It’s crazy. MLB is putting me outta business in the jibing about fantasy closers market. Where does the unemployment line start? I am only half kidding, and I’m also half crazy too. So that makes me half-something. So believe it or not, the season is officially 3/8 of the way over. That is just crazy in itself to even fathom. I think I have rambled on about nothing long enough… let’s talk about someone, anyone, shall we? I like the rebound to form that Mark Melancon has shown, due to a K/9 of 4.68. I haven’t seen a true one-outcome reliever before, but if you own him, I would sell for a better product. You can probably get by on two things in your favor. One, his name uses letters that can be read in a left-to-right format, which, from what I am understanding, is standard for reading purposes. Two, he has 6 saves in the last two weeks and when people look to see how he has been doing, they will see that he is tied for the lead during that time frame in saves. Listen, if you need saves and you own Melancon, I am not saying go out and sell him cause I said so. I am saying swap him and a extra player and see if you can get an improvement on the K category. The other owner will be so smitten that he got a closer and another player for just a closer, he won’t realize that he was jobbed. Side note, make sure he doesn’t read this blurb first or the jig is up. Stick around more snippets of informative justice are on the way…
- I was going to lead with Fernando Rodney, but that would be over done and has been said by hundreds. Lloyd needs get off grandpa’s wowy sauce for a minute and realize that there are other guys on the roster that can close or at least deserve a shot. Keep an eye you deeper leaguers for the return of Farq, he is getting in quantities of innings in the minors in order to get what we saw in the second half of 2013. He still somehow only has 3 blown saves on the year. Numerous feelings hurt though.
- How valuable is a great reliever? Well, unfortunately, I will tell ya. Dellin Betances is the 22nd ranked pitcher based on WAR (1.5). Not everyone is a believer in WAR, but just for giggles, this is who he is ahead: Felix, Sale, MadBum, Lester. Let’s put it this way, there are 28 spots between him and the next highest reliever in the pitching ranks. He was good last year, and dare I say he is better this year.
- The Craig Kimbrel reign on dominance tour is in week two and counting. I am sorry, but when you have the same amount of saves over the last two weeks of games as Austin Adams, Scott Oberg, and Joe Beimel, it’s time to take a long hard look at yourself in the mirror and regret the early round pick you used. Will he still get 30-plus saves? Most likely, but it’s no fun watching it when it isn’t natural anymore.
- For me it’s never too early to speculate on real life trades that will effect the closer tree. My top three trade candidates as of right now are Chapman, K-Rod and Clippard.
- Middle reliever shout out of the week goes to Hunter Strickland. For those of you using my pivot system. Go all Metallica and Ride the Lightning.
$12 Salads
You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.
1. Andrew Miller – (Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson)
2. Trevor Rosenthal – (Kevin Siegrist, Seth Maness)
3. Kenley Jansen — (Chris Hatcher, Yimi Garcia)
4. Aroldis Chapman – (Tony Cingrani, Jumbo Diaz)
5. Drew Storen – (Casey Janssen, Aaron Barrett)
6. Craig Kimbrel – (Joaquin Benoit, Kevin Quackenbush)
7. Greg Holland– (Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera)
8. Huston Street – (Joe Smith, Cesar Ramos)
9. Glen Perkins – (Aaron Thompson, Blaine Boyer)
Donkeycorns
Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.
10. David Robertson – (Zach Duke, Dan Jennings)
11. Jonathan Papelbon – (Ken Giles, Jake Diekman)
12. Jeurys Familia – (Carlos Torres, Alex Torres, Bobby Parnell – DL)
13. Zach Britton – (Darren O’Day, Tommy Hunter)
14. Francisco Rodriguez, (Will Smith. Jeremy Jeffress)
15. Cody Allen – (Bryan Shaw, Zach McAllister)
16. Mark Melancon — (Tony Watson, Jared Hughes)
17. Koji Uehara – (Junichi Tazawa, Alexei Ogando)
18. Brad Boxberger – (Jake McGee, Kevin Jepsen)
19. Hector Rondon – (Pedro Strop, Justin Grimm)
20. Joakim Soria – (Joba Chamberlain, Tom Gorzellany)
21. Santiago Casilla – (Sergio Romo, Jean Machi)
22. Jason Grilli – (Jim Johnson, Brandon Cundiff)
Employed
These guys are the men that make the save market go round. They punch in, punch out. Have the job, no real threat to speak of, and are basically just there to collect great benny’s so they can take care of their crippled brother. Who is only really crippled because he is scared of the sun.
23. Shawn Tolleson – (Keone Kela, Ross Ohlendorf)
24. Luke Gregerson – (Chad Qualls, Pat Neshek)
25. Brett Cecil — (Roberto Osuna, Aaron Loup )
26. Tyler Clippard – (Sean Doolittle – DL, Evan Scribner, Dan Otero)
27. John Axford – (Boone Logan, Rafael Betancourt)
Brain Freezes
I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Carlos Marmol– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Castro in the head with a pick-off throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.
28. Fernando Rodney – (Carson Smith, Tom Wilhelmson)
29. A.J. Ramos – (Carter Capps, Mike Dunn)
30. Brad Ziegler – (Addison Reed, Dominic Leone)
Grey didn’t like it, let’s see what you think. In dynasty with holds and K/9 would you trade melancon to get kela and caminero. i already have tolleson/k-rob and am TEX so i need to keep at least 9 of them on roster at all times, currently have 11. If not for Melancon’s K rate i probably wouldn’t do this. I’ve proposed a three way trade wherein
1. i get kela from LAA and caminero from PIT
2. PIT gets melancon
3. LAA gets papelbon
It seems LAA needs to give up more to PIT in this one. LAA didn’t want Heaney from me (which sucks, since both it would help make his prospects better and i might have to just drop heaney later, but he wants help now he said), is it too much for me to throw in Hughes if LAA finds Hughes an upgrade over his worst SP? I could stream or maybe grab hendricks (no guarantee he’s around long if this deal takes too long). If LAA does consider Hughes an upgrade this would offset whatever else he’d have to throw in to PIT.
@Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: I am not a fan of it, alot of moving parts and I don’t really see you getting better from it
In my 14-team h2H league (where we count holds) I’m relievers only and have been using McAllister and Cingrani in the SP slots. They have been so shit this week, that they lost me ERA and WHIP all on their own.
The only SP guys getting any Hold action in the last two weeks are Chafin, Treinen and Freidrich. Are you inclined to pick up any of those guys?
@SteveNZ: I would shift to Chafin, I would probably dump Zach
Just so no one out there panics, we’re not even close to 3/8 of the way through the season. A good portion of the clubs out there haven’t even played 1/3 of the season.
Where did you get 3/8 from? That’s 61 games!
@Matt: i just counted all the games that have counted in standings out of the total of 4860 per season and came up with 33.2% have been played exactly.
@Matt: I was rounding up for the suspense of a joke.
league that has categories for saves and for holds. Cut Yimi for Giles, Siegrist, Joba, Hughes or stick with Yimi?
@brett: Still love siegrist
It looks like Strickland pitches every other day?
@Scott: and that’s how you get started on the walden path (thanks matheny!) actually worse in walden’s case, he went 11/15th of days which somehow led to a shoulder injury.
@Scott: yea. that’s not good. It means two things the Giants are always in close games and that tehy have no reliable guys
@Smokey: romo’s only other one, and he’s been going every other day or so lately too.
A few Casilla blow ups recently, anything to see here? If save chasing who would you rather have:
Romo, Johnson or Qualls.
Notice no mention of another Doolittle injury. Gotta think Clippard has the gig until the ASB now no, could he keep it all year?
@Swfcdan: doolittle’s out longer than that, bank on it, and just hope this isn’t the walden path.
@Swfcdan: Does Smokey ever respond to questions?
@Swfcdan: Sorry brotha been super busy at work. At some point ATL is going to be a seller, now who do they trade first is the question Johnson or Grilli. It’s adecent roster gamble that he won’t kill you stat wise or you can just hide him on your bench if deep enough. Casilla is fine.Who do you like today in the Champions league?
In a ROTO league that combines saves and holds, would you rather hang onto Cecil or replace him with a guy like Kevin Siegrist who’s on a better team?
@stlcards02: The save guys always get the flashy love in those leagues. I would hold Cecil because if totonto trades for a closer or signs one Papelbon or Soriano Cecil still retains alot of value
When you say Clippard, K-Rod and Chapman being possible trade targets….do you mean they are closers to target in trades? Or do you believe they are about to be moved to new teams, creating new closers?
My real problem, is I’m stacked in a head to head league. Ideally, I should keep 2 strong closers. I can choose from…
Kimbrel
Familia
Gregorson
Boxberger
Clippard
Ziegler
Kimbrel costs me $20 a year, for this and next year.
Boxberger and Familia both would retain Restricted FA rights, and only cost me $1.
The other 3 are just 1 year rentals.
Kimbrel may be my best closer, but can probably bring the most in return. Who would you move/keep?
@Anson Wells: They will be traded. Yes I would move Kimbrel at 20 and roll with the buck guys
in a 12 team obp, i’m in the bottom half for saves, era, and whip (own:aroldis, cecil, ramos), would you trade chris davis for david robertson? I’m still left with edwin, abreu, panda, pedro alvarez, and valbuena – i’m tops in homeruns…..worth sacrificing the offense?
@yan can cook: if Robertson is the best you can get for Davis then yea, but i would explore other teams first
@yan can cook: was this Sky before he accepted familia?
Just wanted to toss this by you. One team in our league has:
David Robertson
Drew Storen
Glen Perkins
Joaquin Benoit
Andrew Miller
Brad Boxberger
Addison Reed
Now that’s just overkill isn’t it?
@Scott: yea I would say he’s winning saves and rates
@Smokey: yet keeps reed around just to make sure he might not win rates, like a mcclendon present of stupidity, keeps on giving.
Fafrq has 8.44 ERA, has been putrid at Tacoma. I wish you were in our AL only league!
@Marc Wrubel: oh me too, me too. He is pitching better in the minors, check the BAA versus RH.
C-Mart and Hammel for Storen and Miller?
@Scott: i’d take the saves and use the waiver for spot starts
If McClendon comes to his senses and announces that Carson is the closer would you drop Clippard or Ramos for him? I’m afraid of being screwed if Rodney reclaims it or the return of Farq.
@Jack: dropping one closer for another is usually bad form, is the league only 10 teams? Ramos hasn’t been the sturdiest sail in the wind so he would be the choice of the 2
@Smokey: bad form, how you mean here? you mean it’s a bad idea to drop one guy for a slightly better guy (you have to mean something different than that)?
@Mike Hunt’s Honorable Discharge: Sounds like that’s exactly what he means :)
@pbmax: but wouldn’t you actually want the better guy?
@Mike Hunt’s Honorable Discharge: You would want the better guy. But if you drop another closer into the pool and say that your next closest team standings wise picks that player up the offset in saves is only minimal. It’s not like your adding a closer that is new and has zero stats to add. All are existing closers, which is why in theory all closers should be rosterd unless the league is tiny. That’s all I was saying sorry wasn’t more descriptive.
@Smokey: of course all should be rostered, some leagues are just filled with ignorant or slow to learn people. that makes sense.
Smokey, many thanks as always. I’m looking to shake things up with 2 waiver moves… would you say they’re good or bad in a QS/OPS/Solds league. I’m really struggling in pitching.
W 1) Torres for McCullers
W 2) Arcia for Paulsen
c- Norris, Gomes
1b- Goldschmidt
2b- Wong
ss/mi- Peralta, Miller
3b/ci – Frazier, Plouffe
util – Alvarez
of- Marte, Betts, Melky, Aoki, Ozuna (Dickerson)
sp – Price, Hamels, Gonzalez, Hammel, Fiers (Verlander, Iwakuma)
rp- Melancon, McGee, Johnson, Ziegler, Reed, Qualls, Torres
Any guidance much appreciated!
@shibboleth: i agree with both moves
How about: Dellin Betances is the #48 ranked player on the Rudy player rater. Shows you how valuable a dominant next in line reliever can be. Imagine if he were getting Saves…
he’s crushing it on Ks and ratios but also getting pretty lucky with 4 Wins. that’s worth a lot from a reliever.
@Rudy Gamble: Making his $value for Wins $0.0 and he is still good enough to be the 108th player, tied with Marcus Semien. He’s got regression to do in more than just Wins, but what a start.
timely thread as i just moved melancon and brantely for tulo
@stonepie: nice…I am stalking your team
Surprised to see Ramos in the brain freeze section. He has been pretty solid since taking over to old-whats-his-name.
@Twiggy: I don’t trust him, some do me personally I don’t. With time comes trust
@Smokey: So with time you trust Axford some more?
@Twiggy: axford also doesn’t have anybody pulling a carter capps behind him, in fact lately even betancourt has been as bad as those other guys in that bullpen.