Welcome to another week of Two-Start Pitcher Rankings, Razzball!
Summer is upon us, and that means we are going to see even more home runs! Depending on which categories you may need to win your matchup, this could be beneficial when finding a steaky power hitter on the wire, but can really limit streaming pitcher upside. We know about high elevation (aka Never Rockies) and paying attention to the wind direction, aka wind blowing out at Wrigley Field. Below will be a couple extra details to look for regarding the weather… welcome to science class.
Why warm air helps the ball fly farther
When air warms, its molecules spread out, making the air less dense. This reduces air resistance (drag) on the ball, allowing it to travel farther for the same initial force Weather Prediction Education+1. For every 10°F above 75°F, a baseball can travel about 3 feet farther sportslawblogger.com. At 90°F, a hit ball can be 4–6 feet farther than at 50°F mlbprediction.com. This effect is additive over a game — dozens of extra feet per ball can turn warning-track fly balls into home runs.
Humidity’s role
Warm, humid air is even less dense than warm, dry air because water molecules have a lower molecular weight than nitrogen and oxygen wfmynews2.com. This further reduces drag, slightly increasing carry distance. At the same temperature, higher humidity can make a ball fly a bit farther
And the most important (in my opinion)
Pitch movement changes
For pitchers, warm, less dense air reduces the Magnus effect (the force causing curveballs and sliders to break), making breaking pitches less dramatic commandtrakker.com. Fastballs may retain speed slightly longer, but movement is reduced.
Things to look for: GB%, HardHit%, and Barrel%. Whiff% and Chase% are also important, but I like to dig into how hard a pitcher is getting hit when he gives up a hit.
Thanks for joining science class today, and good luck this upcoming week!
And now onto the rankings…
Start Your Studs-
Cristopher Sanchez: @TOR, @MIL – He won’t have a scoreless week, but Sanchez earned the spot with 50.2 scoreless innings.
Paul Skenes: vs LAD, vs MIA – Skenes vs Dodgers must-see TV.
Kyle Harrison: @ATH, vs PHI –
Gavin Williams: vs NYY, vs DET – Hesitant for the back-to-back starts vs NYY, but they will be without Judge.
Best Of the Rest-
Logan Webb: vs WSH, vs CHC – The QS machine is fully back.
Max Meyer: vs ARI, @PIT
Emerson Hancock: @BAL, @WSH
Nathan Eovaldi: @KC, @BOS
Will Warren: @CLE, @TOR
Spencer Arrighetti: @LAA, @KC – Favorable matchups for the Spaghetti man.
Payton Tolle: @TB, @TEX
Connelly Early: @TB, vs TEX
(Two) Start At Your Own Risk– (High Risk/High Reward)
Taj Bradley: @DET, vs STL – Not making it out of the 4th inning in back-to-back starts gives me reason to pause, but hopefully a bounce back week here.
Davis Martin: vs ATL, vs LAD – Brutal matchups.
Andrew Abbott: @SD, vs ARI
Grant Holmes: @CHW, @NYM
Dustin May: @NYM, @MIN
Stephen Kolek: vs TEX, vs HOU
Zac Gallen: @MIA, @CIN – Touch matchups for a guy with no swing and miss in his stuff.
Jeffrey Springs: vs MIL, vs COL
Grayson Rodriguez: vs HOU, vs TB
Walker Buehler: vs CIN, @BAL – Trending in the right direction and likely a FA add.
Colin Rea: @COL, @SF – At Coors has me worried for a pitcher giving up home runs.
Do Not Start– Not a lot here, I would start, but maybe for one matchup only.
Chris Bassitt: vs SEA, vs SD – Returning from lower back tightness is the reason for the risky starts here. If he is fine vs SEA, then bump him up above Abbott.
Trevor Rogers: vs SEA, vs SD – You belong here.
Patrick Corbin: vs PHI, vs NYY
Tomoyuki Sugano: vs CHC, @ATH – You’ve been trending in the right direction, but still Never Rockies.
Miles Mikolas: @SF, vs SEA – Worst pitcher in baseball.
Neither is a two start but who do you prefer? Both at home facing Astros
Detmers or Cameron?