Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages…….welcome to Friday. FanDuel has us set up for a 14 game slate and I’m here to help you through it. Today’s slate contains some aces; Kershaw, Nola, Snell, Carrasco, Paxton, Corbin, Tanaka, Cole, Price…..so naturally, I’m going to lead with Carlos Rodon ($8,700). Rodon’s been really good since his return from shoulder surgery this year. While I will admit, the SIERA points to regression, I’m going to ignore it some and think more about what he’s done for me lately. Rodon gets a match-up with the Angels, who have struggled vs LHP all year. In fact, they only field one above average bat vs LHP…..it just so happens that its really really above average in Mike Trout. Trout was absent from the lineup on Wednesday with calf tightness, so if he’s out on Friday, Rodon goes from a nice GPP play to a potential cash play.
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Aaron Nola, SP: $11,300 – Nola’s my favorite cash option on the slate. He’s just been so studly all year.
Blake Snell, SP: $10,700 – If Nola is my 1A, Snell is 1B for me. Great match-up facing Baltimore and as the highest favorite on the slate, should get those bonus points for the W.
Carlos Carrasco, SP: $10,800 – Carrasco is definitely a tier under Snell and Nola. Riskier matchup, but should be lower owned. Toronto tends to struggle vs RHPs that throws a good slider, so combine all those factors and I like him as a GPP play.
Matt Olson, 1B: $3,300 – I really like the spot Oakland’s in tonight. The problem is they’re pricey. If you can afford Khris Davis ($4,000), Jed Lowrie ($3,800), or Matt Chapman ($3,800), please do it. However, if I’m playing Nola, I need those savings.
Ji-Man Choi, 1B: $3,000 – Big boy is crushing since getting regular ABs with the Rays. Should have a nice day vs Dylan Bundy.
Adam Frazier, 2B: $3,500 – Dan Straily survives in Miami using the magic that flows off that artifact in center field, but we get him away from the relic, so let’s go! Pirates are one of my favorite stacks of the night.
Yairo Munoz, 2B: $2,300 – Munoz can either be a cheap punt play or a cheap bat in the Cardinals stack. It really just depends on how you feel about Daniel Norris. The Cardinals are 6th in wOBA and 7th in ISO vs LHP, so it’s definitely not a cake walk for Norris.
Yandy Diaz, 3B: $3,500 – Double reverse-splits! Marco Estrada really struggles vs RHBs and Diaz is better vs RHP.
Colin Moran, 3B: $2,700 – Cheap part of the Pirates stack, see Adam Frazier for Miami magic. Seriously, those dolphins are freaking majestic.
Jorge Polanco, SS: $3,300 – Heath Fillmyer sports a 14% K-rate, so he doesn’t miss many bats and Jorge makes contact on 91.7% of pitches in the strike zone. Put the ball in play and good things will happen…..at least that’s what my little league coach said……thanks Dad.
Hernan Perez, SS: $2,500 – This is Hernan week! He’s faced 4 lefties, and he eats lefties for breakfast.
Gregory Polanco, OF: $4,000 – See Adam Frazier for analysis, but seriously, that thing out in center field looks like something my wife made in 1989 with her Lisa Frank stickers.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $3,700 – The Rangers are also in a nice spot, but much like their counterpart, the Athletics, they’re not cheap. Choo’s leading off and facing Chris Bassitt-hound.
Nick Castellanos, OF: $3,700 – Castellanos is such a beast vs LHP. .400/.451/.615 triple slash and faces Austin Gomber, who sports a 2.77 ERA with a 4.77 SIERA. Regression is coming. People might see Gomber’s ERA and be scared off, so I’ll roster a low-owned Beastmaster every day of the week.
Starling Marte, OF: $3,600 – If you’re rolling with the Pirates stack, don’t cheap out. Marte’s got that power speed combo.
Mallex Smith, OF: $3,400 – Over the last month Mallex is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He’s got his manager’s green light as he’s stolen 10 bases over the last month.
Joc Pederson, OF: $3,400 – Jon Gray apparently just decided to stop striking people out (2 Ks in his last 12.2 IP), and now he’ll be pitching in Coors vs a Dodgers lineup that can do a lot of damage. Check the lineup, but if Joc’s leading off, he’s reasonably priced and in a great spot.
Roman Quinn, OF: $3,400 – Leads off for the Phillies, and hitting .357 vs LHP since coming up.
Harrison Bader, OF: $3,300 – Since Tommy Pham was traded on 7/31, which resulted in Bader getting regular plate appearances, Harrison’s gone .288 with 4 HRs and 4 SBs. He also has a .215 ISO and .398!! wOBA vs LHP.
Tyler O’Neill, OF: $2,800 – Another sport where you have to check the lineup, but O’Neill’s got the platoon advantage and lots of pop (.286 ISO vs LHP).
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Pretty serious thunderstorms for the Nationals/Cubs game, so that a hard pass for me. Only other precipitation in the forecast is in the Mets/Phils game, but that should just be passing showers starting about halfway through the game. The temperatures across the country have really cooled off, but higher humidity should help out the hitting conditions for Pirates/Marlins, Red Sox/Astros, Mets/Phillies, White Sox/Angels, and Athletics/Rangers.
Doing Lines In Vegas
It’s been quite a year for the Rays. At the beginning of the season, they were projected to win around 70 games. They’ve already crushed the over (75) and are the biggest favorite tonight at -275. That should add a little value to Blake Snell for the W. The highest totals for the day are 9.5 (KC/Minn and Col/LAD), which means no games on the slate with double digit totals. My personal play is Over 8.5 runs in the Mil/SF game.
