Excuse the exposition and this clunky intro into aforementioned exposition, but here’s the catchers to target1st basemen to target2nd basemen to target, and shortstops to target. These 3rd basemen to target are being drafted after 200 overall. Keep in mind, nephew (and five niece readers), your Uncle Grey likes to have a corner man drafted by the time these guys appear, so you’re looking at potential utility men more than anything. There are upcoming RCL drafts, if you wanna get rowdy and/or bawdy. Now, this is a (legal-in-all-countries-except-Indonesia) supplement to the top 20 3rd basemen for 2021 fantasy baseball. Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2021 projections. Anyway, here’s some 3rd basemen to target for 2021 fantasy baseball:

Austin Riley (Yahoo 201, NFBC 204) Don’t think Riley should be after 200, which is why I have him ranked around 150th overall on my top 500. Homey’s about to have a 30/.260 season and you’re gonna be like, Riley or Au Shizz or Rizzo or Austin Rizz or *smoking out of Greybot 3000’s ears* Must…shut…down…overloaded.

Eduardo Escobar (ESPN 210, Yahoo 222, NFBC 280) Escobar about to make a well-executed coup against the humidor, and dead balls. Escobar might want to enlist bag-man, Ketel Marte, I’m sure he’d take part in anything to regain his power. “First you get the power, then you get the fantasy value, then you get the women.” That’s Scarface, this guy who is in one of my mixed leagues. Not sure if Escobar can find that 35-homer power he had in 2019, because of previously mentioned hurdles, but all his peripherals appear like he could. By the way, nary a day goes by I don’t shake my head at the implausibility of MLB teams and a commissioner wanting less homers. I’d say it’s a long game being played for arbitration, but doesn’t it just drive up pitchers’ salaries instead? Also, it’s not the long game, anymore.

J.D. Davis (NFBC 238) Worried a bit that Jonathan Davis Davis will forever be a platoon player. Maybe doing well vs. righties, but never being able to play against lefties will keep him in the bin of guys who are fine in deep leagues, but unable to be rostered in shallower leagues, due to the lack of counting stats. Enamored still with the tools, thinking he can go 30/.285, but pretty much at the realization it won’t ever come near that if the Mets platoon him, which appears likely.

Brian Anderson (Yahoo 259, NFBC 243) As mentioned previously, if a site is drafting or ranking a guy above 200th overall, I leave them off the parenthetical list, but I just have to point out how high Brian Anderson is for ESPN. He’s ranked in the 180s overall, and he’s exactly the type that ESPN would totally forget to rank altogether. I have no idea what’s going on there. Maybe when they were throwing darts for their rankings, one dart went far wide into Brian Anderson. If I’m being honest, not even sure why Yahoo and NFBC are so high on him. By the by, when I say NFBC is high on someone, it’s not them. It’s an ADP, so it’s drafters, uh, drafting him high. Like what on earth are people thinking that has them that excited for Brian Anderson? Wait, this is supposed to be me talking about guys I like. Right, well, I do like Anderson, but bit later than where he’s going. He’s still fine for a flyer, though, I guess. Hearty endorsement! Last year, he hit 11 homers and .255, but his HR/FB% for him was goofy and his Launch Angle came down. Don’t mind Anderson for a 25-homer, .260 bet, but not seeing huge upside.

Colin Moran (ESPN 275, Yahoo 321, NFBC 517) Everything that’s wrong with the Pirates:  They signed Todd Frazier to platoon with Moran. What’s wrong with them? I get it, Moran isn’t incredible, but what do you gain by taking at-bats away from him to give to a guy who is about to retire and adds nothing. It’s strictly common sense to give Moran at-bats to see exactly what you have. Sure, chuckle it up that you know what Moran is, but he seemed to be hitting everything hard last year (47% Hard Hit%) and ten homers in 178 ABs. I am once again asking, what do the Pirates have to lose by playing Moran? Also, on a side note, I’m thinking ESPN and Yahoo are too high on 3rd basemen. Escobar, Davis, Anderson and Moran are all way above ADP. If it were one guy, I’d think it was a fluke, but to be teenager-horny for Colin Moran ain’t right.

Carter Kieboom (ESPN unranked, Yahoo unranked, NFBC 494) It’s pretty wild how unheralded Kieboom is. I’d think on the coolness of his name he’d be ranked way before this. A totally forgotten man. Kiebust, before even having a Kiechance. “You Kie-banged, kid, now get out of here.” The Nats are saying he’s an everyday player too, and literally no one cares, because he had a bad 99 at-bats last year. Seriously. You can’t even make up the absolute nonsense going on this year during draft season. I’m not saying Kieboom is worth a top 75 overall pick, but if the Rays weren’t in the postseason last year, Randy Arozarena would be drafted around the same spot at Kieboom is right now. Haha, so dumb. None of it makes any sense. People are all simply Gladwell Blink’ing hoping they get it right. Going into last year, Kieboom seemed like a 25/5/.275 hitter. Ya know, better than Brian Anderson. Oh, and he’s 23 years old. Yup, none of it makes sense.

Josh Jung (ESPN unranked, Yahoo unranked, NFBC 656) Recently, I gave you my Josh Jung fantasy. I’m getting the vibes we’re not seeing him until June, at the earliest, but I have my ear to the ground to bring you the latest news after I read someone else’s news reports.

Isaac Paredes (ESPN unranked, Yahoo unranked, NFBC 656) Didn’t even check to see if ESPN or Yahoo ranked Paredes. Took a guess they didn’t, and I know I’m 100% correct. As uze. Yo, who knows more nonsense than me? No one. Any hoo! Around March 8th, I fell in love with Paredes, like I was Ethel Merman in a Tigers cap. He’s my number one guy who is unranked by everyone — except me! — and will be mixed league relevant by the end of the season. People maybe by May (sounds like a song) adding Paredes in the shallowest of leagues, especially if he breaks camp with the Tigers, but I’m beginning to think I need to get on the Akil Baddoo choo-choo.

 
  1. BB says:
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    Coupla curious takes here:
    1. “Worried a bit that (J.D. ) Davis will forever be a platoon player. Maybe doing well vs. righties, but never being able to play against lefties …” Davis, a right-handed hitter, has a career .265 BA and .774 OPS vs. RHP, compared to .273 and .832 vs. LHP. If he does get platooned, doesn’t seem he’d be sitting versus lefties.
    2. “(I)f the Rays weren’t in the postseason last year, Randy Arozarena would be drafted around the same spot at Kieboom is right now.” Arozarena hit .281 in 76 regular-season PA with 7 HR and a 1.022 OPS, compared to Kieboom’s .202 BA, .556 OPS and zero HR in 122 PA. Arozarena’s postseason obviously put him on another level, but even without that he’d certainly be a more popular pick than Kieboom based on regular-season stats alone.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      1. Okay

      2. Cmon

    • Phil says:
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      2019 is an outlier for Davis in terms of Average (helped by a .355 BABIP that year, also a career outlier). Look at his minor’s numbers, he’s not a 300 hitter. And probably will be platooned. At least that is what a deeper dive in the stats says.

      • hot corner says:
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        He was a career .292 hitting in 507 minor league games

  2. packers2018 says:
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    The Top 20 3ed baseman link takes you to the 2020 projections.
    Looking at them is a little scary.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, oops

  3. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!!!

    Fantastic report!!!

    a. Signed up Escobar dropping JD using your logic above. Does it make sense? He’d be my CI, I have Suarez manning 3B.

    b. MLB quote of the day for March 18, 2021

    1. Terrmel Sledge, born March 18, 1977

    ‘He (Terrmel Sledge) is one of the few players today that is a student of the game. He listens well, he seeks advice, he will ask questions. He studies and observes and he makes adjustments. He may have a bad at-bat, but he’ll come back and have a good at-bat. I think he is mentally tough. He’s not going to go out there and hang his head and be unfocused.’

    Montreal Expos Manager / Hall of Famer Frank Robinson on MLB.com (Bill Ladson, 11/18/2004)

    2. Chad Cordero, born March 18, 1982

    ‘He’s (Chad Cordero) not a guy that throws 97, 98 mph with a closer’s mentality. He hits the corners. He doesn’t pitch in the middle of the plate. You don’t have to worry about too much game-calling as far as offspeed pitches and tricking hitters. Everybody throughout the league knows that he’s going to throw the fastball. He just does a good job locating it.’

    Washington Nationals Catcher Brian Schneider on MLB.com (Bill Ladson, 06/30/2005)

    3. Charlie Lau, died March 18, 1984

    ‘Charlie (Lau) made me a hitter. My rookie year I was hitting around .200 when he started working with me. All of a sudden, I started to hit.’

    George Brett in The Dispatch (Dave Anderson, 03/21/1984, ‘Professor of Hitting’, Page 9) [Charlie Lau Quotes]

    c. Random Reggie Jackson quote of the day for March 18, 2021

    ‘When you’ve played this game for ten years and gone to bat seven-thousand times and gotten two-thousand hits do you know what that really means? It means you’ve gone zero for five-thousand.’

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Charlie Lau helped a lot of hitters get better, Brett was an excellent student – cheers Ante!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Charlie Lau should be in the HOF

        • Agree!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      A. Nope

      C. Reggie!

  4. Better Call Limehouse says:
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    16 team h2h keep 4 at previous season’s late season FP ADP costs. OPS, hits, steals %, OBP over AVG, net saves + holds over saves, QS, K/9 added.
    options: (if multiple guys in same round one of them has to move to better round, unless 3 are in same round, then one can move down, so 3 5ths = a 4th a 5th and a 6th). large amount of hitter spots (2 utils, 4 OF, a CI and MI)
    soto (1)
    bellinger (1)
    yelich (1)
    ozuna (7)
    hayes (28)
    arozarena (28, a clear one here i’d think)
    otani (get both SP and hitter, 9)
    happ (OF spots only, not yahoo, 18)
    woodruff (6)
    carrasco (8)
    gonsolin (28)

    rest are either weakish no real upside starters (who i can get at similar prices anyway) or RP’s (same)

    • Better Call Limehouse says:
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      currently ohtani in fantrax doesn’t have SP (my guess is since he pitched not at all last year it got removed) but they ain’t stupid like yahoo, when he’s scheduled to pitch in season i doubt that lasts long.

      • Foxman says:
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        On our RCL last night, the guy who drafted Ohtani said he gains eligibility for SP after his 3rd start. For whatever that is worth

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Which 4?

      Soto, Belly, Yelich, Arozarena

      • Better Call Limehouse says:
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        “(if multiple guys in same round one of them has to move to better round, unless 3 are in same round, then one can move down, so 3 5ths = a 4th a 5th and a 6th)”

        so 3 1st’s can’t move to round zero and 2. i.e. one of belly/soto/yelich at most. soto from rankings obv. so soto/arozarena and another 2.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Hayes…Ozuna or Woodruff…prolly Woodruff to lock up ace

  5. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Thanks Grey! Really don’t get the lack of love for Riley! I feel like the second he hits 2 dongs in a game he’ll be on everyone’s FAAB must grabs.

    So looks like I was able to lock in the best of both worlds in those trades yesterday. The guy who wanted my $10 Eloy for Devers ($19) Ketel ($6) and one of Bohm/Vaughn ($3 – the min keeper salary) now only wants Gioito ($8) instead (personally I’d want the 24 year old slugger as a keeper, no disrespect to Giolito).

    Anyway, who between Bohm and Vaughn would you want to keep? Now that it sounds like Vaughn is going to get extended (I know it’s not official, but CWS have a great track record for doing this successfully)..:does that change your pick between the two guys? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks, Duda!

      Bohm

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        Thanks! For upside would you lean Vaughn if he signed / was announced as opening day DH, or still easy Bohm?

        I told the owner I wanted to wait just until Ketel is back on the field (even though admittedly Ketel’s ankle soreness sounds like a nothing).

        By the way, I may be late to the game on this, but isn’t Ketel basically DJ L, with a smidge more HR upside?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ketel’s hurt? Oh…yeah, meh

          Bohm over Vaughn

          Yes, Ketel’s better than DJ

  6. Steinbrenner Youth says:
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    Grey, help me out please. If you could only keep one, would it be:
    Darvish for $19
    Eugenio for $14
    Giancarlo for $16
    Kyle Seager for $3
    I hate Kyle Seager with a passion, but 3 bucks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yu

  7. Simsbad says:
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    Yep. Riley (205) and Escobar (229). Looks like if I had Ketel Marte instead of Semien then I’d have the full Grey Dream Team. Are you doing OF sleepers next?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That’s the plan!

  8. Tom says:
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    Kieboom hit 16 hrs. and batted .303 for AAA Fresno of the PCL, big deal, any decent prospect hits .300 in the PCL and usually with more robust hr. totals. As I pointed out yesterday, Ty France hit .399 with 27 hrs. in 348 ab’s in the PCL and he’s pretty much an afterthought in most drafts and he could be hitting in the heart of the Mariners lineup. So Kieboom has done nothing so far at the MLB level with his very limited chance and he’ll probably be batting at the end of the lineup, which could explain why he goes so late.

    • Tom says:
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      Kieboom is also off to a horrible start this Spring, Harrison is having a pretty good Spring, how long will the Nats stay dedicated to Kieboom as the starter at third if he also starts the season in a funk?

      • Cram It says:
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        These aren’t starters to target. They’re sleeper CIs. There’s inherent risk that they don’t play or suck.

        I have Keiboom as my backup 3B in a couple of leagues. If he sucks, you drop him!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yes

        • Tom says:
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          I was merely making the point that maybe it does make some sense as to why he’s being completely overlooked in drafts.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’m not saying he should go in the first five rounds

      • Tom says:
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        I realize that, I was just trying to make the point that it’s really not surprising that he’s going so late in drafts. There’s really not much of a track record other than a decent year in the PCL.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ah, gotcha, yeah, fair

  9. BBHHI says:
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    Will an AL version come out? Or, can you recommend an AL only approach?

  10. CoConut Willie says:
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    Yahoo spit out last week that The Mets were tired of JD’s defense (lack of) and shopping.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sounds like they’ve been shopping for a 3B for the whole offseason

  11. Trader says:
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    19 cat, 12 team, h2h league. Saves and holds league focusing more on holds. Looking forward to your assessment and areas to shore up.

    C – Molina
    CI – Freeman Hoskins, Urshela
    MIi – Story, Albies, DJL
    OF – Conforto, Santander, Solak, Frazier, Tapia
    Util – Tavares , A Rosario
    SP – Gallen, Ryu, Hendricks, Luzardo, Plesac, Canning
    RP – D Williams, D Castillo, Melancon Gallegos

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Love your pitching, tho you look light on saves…Hitting looks solid, but light on speed…Leody helps tho – Amed is prolly droppable

      • Trader says:
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        Thanks!
        I basically punt saves until later in the year when roles are clarified and new closers can come cheaply off the wire. Since it is H2H with 19 cats, patience is usually rewarded
        Thanks on Amed. He and Molina came late so I will look over the WW for speed. Appreciation the guidance.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  12. AwesomeAuger says:
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    Hey Grey, how concerned are you about Ramon Laureano’s side soreness? MRI came back ok-ish I guess but it has me a little spooked on him

    • Cram It says:
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      Reason to be spooked.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I’m concerned

      • VinWins

        VinWins says:
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        Well, in the 2 drafts and an auction since we last spoke, I never took him!

        • VinWins

          VinWins says:
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          Oh, wait. I forgot about the draft I joined during the RCL draft last night, which was going too slowly. But I didn’t draft Laureano.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Prolly for best

  13. Cram It says:
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    How many pitchers do you try to carry in Razzslam? With having to start 9 it felt tough to ensure volume. I guess it’s no different than NFBC DC?

    • Cram It says:
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      It is different in that there are 8 less rounds.

        • Cram It says:
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          Well now, that’s some stuff!

      • hot corner says:
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        Absent multi-position eligibility, I was planning to draft my hitting with 3 players at each position plus 10 OF’s. That leaves 17 pitchers.

        • Cram It says:
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          That’s interesting. I did plan for 3 at every position, and I happen to have 10 OFs also. I have a 4th catcher, so I have 16 pitchers. Guess I’m in the right strategy there. Two other guys have the same SP amount as me, but everyone else has more. Although, I stayed within the parameters that I’m only drafting starters with a job for now and I stayed away from speculations/rookie call ups/middle relievers, which everyone else has.

          • OaktownSteve says:
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            I think you’re in good shape from what I can tell.

          • hot corner says:
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            Yeah, I am with you. We are in round 34, I have been taking SPs that have a job. I took Leclerc only because he fell. Instead of taking shots on mid-season call ups and relievers, I am taking shots with guys like C-Mart and Folty. I feel like most of the relievers will be useless by mid-season.

            • Cram It says:
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              Word. I did take 3 closers, but one was Neris, who was the last arm on my roster in the 40th, because there just weren’t any viable starters left.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Kinda wondering how closers will play in this…I don’t really have any idea

                • Cram It says:
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                  Haha. I don’t either. I assume a 3-save week would figure into your starting scorers for that week. Don’t know how often that would happen though. I guess a 2-save week could contribute. *shrug*

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Yeah, maybe…I think a 6 IP, win, 3 ER, 5 Ks start is likely better — Oaktown did the math I think

                    • Cram It says:
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                      OK – so that line, assuming a 1.00 WHIP and no HRs allowed, that’s a 17 point outing. You’d be pretty fortunate to get 9 outings of that or better a week.

                      A closer – gets a save while, let’s say no runs, 1 K, and 1 baserunner is a 13 point outing. There’s definitely value here.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, seems like there would be…From what I remember, you get a few pitchers who do much better than 17 points (good 2-start week) and a few that do terrible, and a few in-between — so there’s room for closers

                • hot corner says:
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                  Who knows. I see some guys going light starters and heavy relievers. I figure that half of the closers will lose their jobs, so I am not going to invest in a dead roster slot.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Yeah

    • OaktownSteve says:
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      I ran a bunch of scenarios of how scoring might look on an average week and my take away is that bench bats will provide a lot more value than bench arms. If you have about 7 fairly reliable starters, they’re going to score in your line up even above any lower tier starters with double start weeks. Side note, high whip pitchers look like garbage in this format and Ks aren’t really worth shit.

      Relievers have a capped upside, but a two save week will generally score. Also I think a couple solid pen arm can kind of serve as a fail safe. If you want to push it and go light on arms those relievers will provide a bit of floor.

      I’m going to go with 15 pitchers out of the gate, knowing that I’ll probably be reserving most of my FaaB money for arms. The big takeaway for me is I want as many hitters with everyday roles as possible.

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        Should mention that because I think quantity of bench bats is probably slightly more important that quality, I took more early pitching than I ever had and needed up with Nola, Woodruff, Kershaw and Hendricks trying to focus on upper tier low whip guys.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Really liking Edman in these Best Balls bc of elig.

          • OaktownSteve says:
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            Multi position definitely can’t hurt. I’m a bit off Edman because the Card ms can’t quit Matt Carpenter.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Hope not! I’m counting on his dumb pos. elig. everywhere this year

        • Cram It says:
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          Yeah, I could see that as a viable strategy….Strong pitching early, volume bats later.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I have 13 SPs, and Devin Williams thru 34 rounds

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Oh, and only took Devin bc he fell liken 150 picks and figured what the hell

      • Cram It says:
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        Cool, sounds about right. I’m sure he’ll contribute a worthy couple of weeks. (I’m not really sure).

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, definitely (I have no idea)

  14. Pyrrhic Victory says:
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    14 team H2H 6×6 categories draft, in which all the starting pitchers up to and including the Safety Dance tier were kept or drafted for by the time I had a free pick, I decided to follow the rankings and roll the dice with Lamet. We’ll see how it goes! Otherwise, like how it turned out:
    C – Kelly (21)
    1B – Olson (3)
    2B – Marte (16, K)
    3B – JoRam (2, K)
    SS – Swanson (25, K)
    CI – Sano (10)
    MI – Moustakiss (8)
    OF – Mookie (1, K)
    OF – Kyle Lewis (7)
    OF – Hampson (19)
    UT – Walsh (13)
    UT – E. Escobar (17)
    BN – Kiner-Falefa (23)
    SP – Lamet (4)
    SP – Bundy (6)
    SP – Bassitt (9)
    SP – Means (12)
    RP – Edwin Diaz (5)
    RP – R. Rodriguez (11)
    P- Eovaldi (14)
    P – Soria (15)
    P – Yarbrough (18)
    BN – Bard (20)
    BN – Alzolay (22)
    BN – Kikuchi (24)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You don’t have a #1 SP, you don’t even really have a #2 SP…So your pitching is an issue…I like the hitting but it feels like it should be better considering the pitching

  15. Pyrrhic Victory says:
    (link)

    14 team H2H 6×6 categories draft, in which all the starting pitchers up to and including the Safety Dance tier were kept or drafted for by the time I had a free pick, I decided to follow the rankings and roll the dice with Lamet. We’ll see how it goes! Otherwise, like how it turned out:
    C – Kelly (21)
    1B – Olson (3)
    2B – Marte (16, K)
    3B – JoRam (2, K)
    SS – Swanson (25, K)
    CI – Sano (10)
    MI – Moustakiss (8)
    OF – Mookie (1, K)
    OF – Kyle Lewis (7)
    OF – Hampson (19)
    UT – Walsh (13)
    UT – E. Escobar (17)
    BN – Kiner-Falefa (23)
    SP – Lamet (4)
    SP – Bundy (6)
    SP – Bassitt (9)
    SP – Means (12)
    RP – Edwin Diaz (5)
    RP – R. Rodriguez (11)
    P- Eovaldi (14)
    P – Soria (15)
    P – Yarbrough (18)
    BN – Bard (20)
    BN – Alzolay (22)
    BN – Kikuchi (24)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Answered above

  16. Chad says:
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    Little off subject… dynasty quickly.
    my Ozuna for his Will Smith (C).
    Have Betts Soto Eloy Yordan Grish Happ and couple others. Need C w only C Kelly and Mejia

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ozuna

      • Chad says:
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        Thanks! I feel the reply for sure but as a position of real need I am on the fence. Ozuna is my oldest OF and has value to move. If I could get a throw in would it a little more interesting? Dang dang dang Grey! Hahaha. Cheers!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, cheers!

  17. primetime says:
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    Grey,

    Got closer questions.

    Not many available. I do own Hicks who doesn’t look sharp yet.

    Add 2.

    Will Smith
    Pomeranz
    Ricard Rodriguez
    Greg Holland
    Matt Barnes
    Giovanny Gallegos
    Diego Castilla

    Drop Hicks and heres my bench

    Mountcastle
    Rosario
    Moose

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Drop who? Jordan Hicks? No

      • Primetime says:
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        I own Jordan hicks. My only closer.

        So don’t drop hicks or any of my bench players for:

        Will Smith
        Pomeranz
        Ricard Rodriguez
        Greg Holland
        Matt Barnes
        Giovanny Gallegos
        Diego Castilla

        Other teams have closers and I will go 6 starters and hicks?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You can’t drop anyone else? How shallow is this league? All those guys should be owned…Rodriguez

          • Primetime says:
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            10 team obp k/9 qs 5*5 keeper league
            we only start 2 closers 5 starters.
            Or 6 starters 1 closer.

            I have Vaughn gore and skubul on my bench not dropping those guys cause upside.

            Starters
            Smith
            Freeman
            Biggio
            Arenado
            Story
            Bellinger
            K Lewis
            Arozarena
            Modesi

            Bench
            Vaughn
            Mountcastle
            Moose
            Chapman
            Stanton
            Rosario

            Pitchers
            Bieber
            Nola
            Maeda
            Glasnow
            Tailon
            Urias
            RP HICKS

            bench
            Civale
            Skubal
            Gore

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Gore is not ownable in that shallow of a league, and prolly not Skubal

  18. Scott Kimmel says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    He gave up on Bogaerts and now is interested in Bo Bichette ($8). Should I ask for Giolito ($25) or Snell ($22) and ask for the difference in cap space or say no?

    Remember I have Abrams, Winn and Witt Jr.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No, I’d want more

      • Scott Kimmel says:
        (link)

        ask for more in return for Bichette

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Oh yeah

      • Scott Kimmel says:
        (link)

        he said he wont move Giolito if Bogaerts is not in the deal. So apparently, the only way i giolito is if i trade Xander.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Damn, this guy is tough, huh?

          • Scott Kimmel says:
            (link)

            extremely

            • Scott Kimmel says:
              (link)

              would u rather have woodruff or fried

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Woodruff

  19. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    Some arbitrary razzslam lines for context when thinking about scoring:

    28AB 8H 5R 1HR 4RBI 1SB=33 points
    9IP 1WHIP 0ER 9K 1W=33 points

    Observation…you cannot win this league unless you’re really really strong on hitting

    7IP 1WHIP 2ER 7K 1W=23 points
    12IP 1.3WHIP 6ER 10K 1W=24.4 points

    Observation: if you can generally get about as many points from a top starter in a one start week than you’re likely to get from your lower end SP in a two start week, you can more than make up the points by using the extra draft slot on a bat

    2IP 1WHIP 0ER 3K 2S=23
    4IP 1WHIP 0ER 6K 1W=20

    Observation: Non-closer RP can provide some value, but you’ll want to try to find guys who are pitching in positions where they can pick up wins. The dedicated 8th inning hold guy who generally only pitches with a lead will be of limited value.

    • FrankGrimes says:
      (link)

      Now you tell me!

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        I wrote it up sometime last week too, but it was a hot mess of words!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haha

        • FrankGrimes says:
          (link)

          Ha overall my team isn’t bad but not knowing the format was my own fault.
          I’d have taken eloy instead of lindor 2nd and not taken beulher in 3rd seeing his pitching was available later….

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        haha

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Like Devin!

      This is great stuff, Steve — great Steve!

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        Thanks Albie. I set up a really simple spreadsheet where I could plug in different weekly scoring lines for players and just modeled out a few teams using average versus outlier values in various combinations and it seemed really clear that it’s bats bats bats.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Oh nice! I’m aiming to write up my team for early next week

  20. Sing Us a Vogelsong You’re the Pineda Man says:
    (link)

    Thanks for the dope write-ups, Grey!

    Enough Mr. Nice Sing Us a Song You’re the Pineda Man Guy!

    Where the hell is the top starting pitchers podcast??? It’s the best pod every year and the people need it! Let’s go!

    Follow up Q, do you know how Mr. Gilpin is doing? WHERE ARE YOU NOW???

  21. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    Here was my other takeaway from looking into RazzSlam scoring.

    Let’s take a guy who is going to hit 40 homers in a season and be a solid all around contributor. Figure a top 20ish overall player. That player is going to average 1.42 HR per week, but since you can’t hit .42 homers, you have to figure he’s going to hit somewhere between 0-5 every week. If you were to do a data-based analysis of the likely array of 0 homer, 1 homer, 2 homer…etc. weeks, there would be a good number of weeks where that player would be predicted to hit 0 or 1 home runs.

    Here are a couple of lines:

    30AB 10H 7R 0HR 7RBI 0SB=38 points
    28AB 7H 7R 2HR 7RBI 0SB=40 points

    So in the first one, here’s a solid week from Juan Soto, but just happens to be one of the weeks where he doesn’t hit any homers. There will definitely be weeks where you get that second line from the 10th OF on your roster and that guy will be more valuable that week than your #1 pick.

    On the other hand, how many weeks do you expect Jose Quintana to score better than Yu Darvish, even in weeks where Quintana has two starts? Maybe once or twice in a year? The reliable starters are going to be in your line up a much higher percentage of the time than your top tier bats. Not saying the top tier bats don’t have value. They absolutely will score the most points overall because their peaks will be that much higher and there will be more consistency. But just the nature of the week over week predictability of pitching versus hitting dictates that there will be more variance with hitter contribution.

    You’re really going to pile up the majority of your points via offense and you’re really going to benefit by hitting as many of those crazy weeks where you have a later round hitter who has 4 games in Coors and 3 in Cincinnati or something.

    In other words, the most important thing a best ball draft is offering you is the chance to profit from the fact that looking at weekly stats is so much different than looking at average stats or season long cumulative stats. And the most volatile statistical thing on your team is hitter performance, so for each roster slot you have a hitter, your kind of adding to the total volatility you can expect from your roster and that is maximizing the format.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Very interesting…I’m doing a Cutlne now, feel like I might need more bats than arms

      • packers2018 says:
        (link)

        That’s why I like the Riley, Renfroe, Joc, Duvall, Schwarber, Nunez, Schoop types late in those points league formats. Just need a 5-8 weeks where they do better than your starters.
        Even pitchers like Ray or basically ant #4 or 5 guy has a good week he will be part of the top 9 on your staff for one week.

        Closers work the same but the committees kind of put a damper on that.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, that makes sense

  22. Justin Ralph says:
    (link)

    How high would you draft Rendon in a points league?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He’s ranked 41st on my sheet

      • Justin Ralph says:
        (link)

        Really. Im sorry but where do I find your points league rankings? I had no idea you put that out!

        • Justin Ralph says:
          (link)

          I only see Malamoneys rankings for points leagues.

          • Justin Ralph says:
            (link)

            Hes ranked 10th on that sheet.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Yeah, that’s available

            • Justin Ralph says:
              (link)

              Ive got that spreadsheet and Rendon is 10th. Im scared to pick him that high!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Oh, yeah, that’s high

                • Ralphy says:
                  (link)

                  You haven’t put out your own points league rankings have you?

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    I don’t, Malamoney does

  23. packers2018 says:
    (link)

    Now Cookie hurt his leg. Ron Darling says he most likely won’t be ready opening day.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sigh, at least it’s his leg

      • swaggerjackers says:
        (link)

        Just when there were starting to be positive reports about his elbow.

        The Indians have looked like geniuses when it comes to moving on from quality pitchers before the injuries mount. Look at Kluber, Cleavinger, Andrew Miller, and now Cookie. Brad Hand was already showing diminished velocity. Anyone taking bets on how long he stays upright?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Gotcha

  24. Will says:
    (link)

    While on the topic of 3rd basemen, I have to say Kris Bryant looks completely lost at the plate. Batting .211/.263/.686 in ST which is basically a continuation of last season’s very poor numbers. He’s either still hurt or too stubborn to change his approach at the plate and find a stance that works.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He’s looked lost for the last 18 months

      • Will says:
        (link)

        Your projections of .264/22/73/3 might end up being way too optimistic!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, they sure sound it right now

  25. leon says:
    (link)

    16 man dynasty. was offered Issac Parades for my Diego castillo.
    my current RP: Aaron Bummer, Diego castillo, Clase, austin adams, codi heur, rainey, moronta.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I like it

      • leon says:
        (link)

        you would do that with the current RP i have? (which is already low on saves)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          How many saves is Castillo projected for? 6?

        • leon says:
          (link)

          not worried that Jeimer Candelario will be the starting 3b?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Yeah, I do think that will happen, but it’s a dynasty, right? Paredes a lot more valuable than some random RP

            • leon says:
              (link)

              ah true. and he should eventually play sooner rather than later in that lineup. thanks

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                No problem

  26. hankg says:
    (link)

    In keeper league, deal Betts (with 2 years of remaining keeper eligibility) for Bellinger (who has 5 years)? This league includes OPS as a 6th category.

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nah

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Fair tho, but I wouldn’t risk it

  27. bossmanjunior333 says:
    (link)

    14 team 6X6 (OBP, R, RBI, HR, SB, TB : ERA, WHIP, K, QS, SV + HLD, K/BB) h2h auction keeper

    So I took over a team with really only 2 good keepers and the rest of the guys are basically at market price. Which of these 6 would you keep and are there even 6 worthy of keeping? Thanks!

    Tatis $24
    Glasnow $11
    Contreras $12
    Donaldson $13
    E Rosario $15
    Paxton$13
    K Jansen $8
    Segura $13
    C Hernandez $5

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Tatis $24
      Glasnow $11
      K Jansen $8
      Contreras $12
      Umm

      • bossmanjunior333 says:
        (link)

        Outside of Tatis and Glasnow, the only other two I have any confidence in is Contreras and Donaldson. I think Donaldson gets a boost in an OBP league and is only one year removed from a monster 2019 season. Given that it’s a SVHLD league, not super keen on spending much on closers, but that is pretty cheap.

        Also, If you are a team that doesn’t have a lot of money tied up in keepers, how does that affect your auction draft strategy?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Donaldson? Idk man

          • bossmanjunior333 says:
            (link)

            Yeah you’re probably right. No point in keeping guys at market rate and I could probably just draft him again for less money if I wanted to. I’m on the fence with Contreras. Having a top 5 catcher locked up who walks a lot is a nice feeling. Jansen looks really good apparently in spring but again, it’s so cheap and easy to find relievers on the wire throughout the season.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Contreras seems like “at least you don’t have to worry about a catcher” situation — but neither here nor there for value on him

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Same with Kenley…Value isn’t great, but it’s one less thing to worry about

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      I’d keep Tatis and Glasnow, and use the rest of the money to rebuild from scratch.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        That’s an option I wouldn’t hate

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          It’s so much fun to inherit a dead keeper league team and take it to the top 2 years later.

          • bossmanjunior333 says:
            (link)

            Yep. I inherited two last place keeper teams in the past two years. Other team was in the same situation. They had Yelich and a bunch of mehh. I only have myself to blame for this league though. Outside of drafting Tatis with one of my last picks, my team was out of the race so quickly and I was in the middle of moving so I just stopped paying attention to the team and missed out on all the prospects coming up and break out waiver pick ups. We chose to freeze the teams for the 2020 season.

  28. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    I think I might be in on Arrieta as a late rounder.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Smyly

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        I haven’t seen Smyly. I’ll have to look at him. Watching Arrieta right now. He’s really mixing his breaking ball well. He’s back to that Arrieta where he’s not just throwing a slider. His manipulating the ball to tweak the horizontal and vertical break on it. Just struck out Rosario (not a high bar) where he threw him a big sweeper and then bounce a 12 to 6 that got him on a check swing. He’s also featuring a very Kyle Hendricks looking change up that is starting at the right knee of lefties and catching the inside black. Commanding his pitches really well.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          These spring games are so misleading some times, but yeah maybe hard time taking Arrieta seriously if being honest

          • OaktownSteve says:
            (link)

            I hear you. It’s been awhile since he was good. I’m trying to look at the quality of the pitches more than the result. The ball seems to have a little life in it. Good movement. Locating really well.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yeah, could be, I just…can’t

        • OaktownSteve says:
          (link)

          Plesac has one of the best moves to first of any right hander I’ve ever seen.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Yeah, Plesac looks like stereotypical guy who will beat projections every year

  29. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey! Sorry, dark horse entry right before I hit accept on that keeper trade…

    1. The one I was going to accept – my Giolito ($7) for his Devers. ($19) K Marte ($6) Bohm ($3). Keepers are then Acuna ($32) Eloy ($10) Story ($19) Robert ($24) Devers Marte then one of Voit($10)/Bohm($3) if I can’t find a 2:1 trade.

    2. New one – my Giolito AND Eloy for his Lindor ($18) and Gallen ($14). Keepers would be Acuna Story Lindor Robert Gallen Voit then either Lewis($4) or Ryu ($17) or Bundy ($4).

    Thanks! Trade 1 still seems like the fit since I’m only giving up Giolito and not Eloy, but would love your thoughts!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      1.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sorry

      1. Gotcha, okay

      2. Nah

  30. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
    (link)

    I think the ship has sailed at this point as a back of draft guy, but Domingo German is looking pretty filthy.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, stuff is likely there, price isn’t awful either

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
        (link)

        Yeah price isn’t awful at all…unlike the person!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haha

  31. bossmanjunior333 says:
    (link)

    If you don’t have a lot of money tied to your keepers, how does that affect your draft strategy? If at all? If I kept the 4 guys you recommended, that would only cost me $55 total of my $260 budget.

    • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
      (link)

      FWIW when I’m in that position I keep the same game plan but let myself go the extra few bucks to get my top targets.

      • bossmanjunior333 says:
        (link)

        Yeah wasn’t sure if that lead to more of a “stars and scrubs” approach, but even then, that’s more of a personal strategy. I usually just play in the middle rounds and try to get as many profit purchases as possible with the flexibility to make a big move late like I did with Tatis two years ago.

        • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
          (link)

          Exactly, so with more money you can flex that strategy more.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d try to win this year, always…You should be able to get a lot of big-name guys with that much money

  32. JB says:
    (link)

    Grey…… I need to trim these 36 players down to 31: What 5 are you cutting?

    Dynasty League
    6×6 with OBP
    6×6 with QS and Holds/Saves as separate cats

    C: S Murphy
    !st: C Bellinger
    2nd W. Merrifield
    3rd T Edman
    SS J Baez
    MI K Hiura
    CI E Escobar
    OF B Harper
    OF N Castellanos
    OF G Springer
    OF M Ozuna
    OF E Rosario
    OF R Laureano
    DH J Martinez
    U V Robles

    P: S Bieber
    M Scherzer
    Y Darvish
    M Fried
    J Urias
    G Canning
    C Javier
    J Urquidy
    G Marquez
    J Odoizzi

    RP: A Colome
    G Holland
    D Promeranz
    J Diekman
    B Treinen
    D Williams

    Bench: G Hampson
    A Rosario
    W Calhoun
    J Walsh
    B Dalbec

    • packers2018 says:
      (link)

      Dalbec, Calhoun, A. Rosario, Treien, and Diekman.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      A Rosario
      W Calhoun
      J Walsh
      B Dalbec
      Treinen

      • JB says:
        (link)

        If I were to make an offer for Bregman or Rendon what would you offer from my team?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Castellanos?

          • JB says:
            (link)

            I could try him…. bregman first because of age?

            Straight up 1-1?

  33. james d says:
    (link)

    Grey who would you prefer to keep? Keep up to 2 years at the round they’re drafted in standard 5×5 12 team league.

    Trade offer of:
    A) My Gerrit Cole (r3; 1yr left) and Xander (r4; 1yr) for Trevor Story (r6; 1yr). Which side you prefer?

    B) My Trevor Bauer (r8; 1yr) and Xander (r4; 1yr) for Bo Bichette(r10; 2yr left). Which side you prefer?

    C) And if both owners say yes, would you take Story or Bichette?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      A. Cole

      B. Xander

      C. Meh

      • james d says:
        (link)

        Thank you Grey

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  34. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    Karinchak I think may end up having been one of the most overdrafted guys of 2021.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Maybe, but that K/9 woo boy

  35. Bill Lumbergh says:
    (link)

    Grey: Much like you, I’m a sucker for Marlins pitchers, especially at home in Crayola Canyon! With Alcantrana blowing hitters away this spring, is he moving up in your ranks and if so how high? Was at 43 pre-spring, now he is at ______. I think we are seeing something special develop right before our eyes… Thanks in advance!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m not moving Alcantara up, I have him ranked about where I’d take him…If you want to reach a round or two, I’m fine with it tho

      • Bill Lumbergh says:
        (link)

        Thanks! BTW- read your response out loud and try not to laugh…that’s what she said!

        “If you want a reach around or two, I’m fine with it” :-)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haha

  36. regan says:
    (link)

    Wander Franco just got dropped in one of my leagues. Would have to drop Hampson. Would you make that move?

    • OaktownSteve says:
      (link)

      What’s the league context?

      • regan says:
        (link)

        $150 Yahoo league. 12 team 5×5 roto, start 14 hitters, 9 pitchers, 7 man bench. Have Solak, Tavaris, Riley, Hampson and Kelenic on the bench. Have decent speed with Story, Luis Roberts, and Tavaris. I have the 12th waiver spot so i would only get him if nobody else puts in a claim. I think Rodgers is going to claim the 2nd base spot so he is only a part timer utility guy hitting in the bottom of the linup. I guess it really comes down to when Franco will get the call. Any opinions on that?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Agree with Steve

  37. Will says:
    (link)

    Torn hammy for Carrasco. Out 6 – 8 weeks minimum.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, sucks big time

  38. Denver90 says:
    (link)

    So I’ve got Bieber, Grisham, JoRam, olson, and Abreu. I have picks at 3/4 turn and round 6.(36,37,61) I figure I need two of ss/2b/of and one sp. I’m thinking Albies will be gone. Gallen or Woodruff may be there at 36 but not at 61. If anderson or xander are there (xanderson?) I’m grabbing one.

    Do I dare grab Devers if he’s there and those others are all gone? I’m targeting franmil later so I’d hate to fill UT so early.

    Will franmil get to 3 games to be OF eligible?

    Every 2b is multiposition eligible except Albies and altuve so I can wait on 2b if Albies is gone.

    Your thoughts welcomed.

  39. TarmanGotHim says:
    (link)

    Grey!

    I got a serious trade offer on the table and I’m leaning towards yes.

    Here are the details of my 5th year keeper. Keep 6.

    I’m coming off a Championship so I’ll be drafting 12th, 1st, 12th, etc. snake draft.

    Yahoo 12 Team H2H 6X6
    R RBI HR SB AVG OPS
    K ERA WHIP S+H K:9 QS

    Keep 6:
    Juan Soto – OF
    Ozzie Albies – 2B
    Jose Abreu – 1B
    Yoan Moncado – 3B

    I would also be keeping Shane Bieber – SP.

    I would need to keep 1 more which is in the air cause I’m torn, but now it may not make a difference, because…

    The bank of players own who I am not keeping
    Gleyber Torress
    Matt Olson
    Dansby Swanson
    Trent Grisham – would if kept him.

    The offer:

    I get:

    Trevor Story & Max Fried

    He gets:

    Shane Bieber & Gleyber Torres

    I go into draft with:

    Juan Soto
    Ozzie Albies
    Jose Abreu
    Yoan Moncado
    Trevor Story
    Max Fried

    I hate to trade Bieber, but Fried is legit and I get Trevor Story for nothing essentially because I wouldn’t keep Torres and I know to draft SP.

    I’m sure you’d agree but what do you think?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Take new questions to my latest post

Comments are closed.