We are in the thick of draft season now and we have real, live draft data to sift through.  Numbers nerds, assemble!  We have spreadsheets, charts and ADP, oh my!  It was a busy couple of weeks here at Razzball Commenter Leagues HQ but I’ve gone through each league that has drafted and added their drafts to a master spreadsheet in order to calculate RCL ADP.  We’ve had twenty leagues draft already, so there’s plenty of numbers to look at.  All leagues have gone off without a hitch and we have plenty more to fill up, including a couple spots in some of the legacy RCLs.  There are two spots in Original Recipe, the longest running RCL, two spots in the $100 NOTLZ RCL, on of the most competitive leagues every year and five spots in Crab Army which drafts tonight and features a few regular Razzball Commenters.  Join or post in the comments and we’ll get you taken care of.  PSA: We don’t want to have any leagues get axed, so if you notice your league is not full the day of or day before the draft, hit us up on Twitter: @Razzball or @MattTruss and let us know.  You can also leave a comment in Grey’s most recent post and/or invite a friend to join.  I know, sacrilege to tell your fantasy baseball friends you read Razzball, but sharing is caring.  Speaking of sharing, jump below and I’ll share with you a fancy RCL ADP spreadsheet for your perusing pleasure.

DRAFT TRENDS

We’ve got twenty leagues worth of draft data to peek at. Being first to draft means first to be criticized, so we’ll dive into the numbers and see what’s going on in the early draft season.

THE FIRST PICK OF THE 2021 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT IS…

Ronald Acuna Jr. (17), with a dash of Fernando Tatis Jr. (2) and just a hint of Juan Soto (1).  I know at least one Fernando drafter was just to spread the equity since they already had Acuna on a couple teams (lucky!).  It seems like almost everyone is aboard the Acuna train though, I know I love the guy.  These three make up the top three picks in most leagues, but Mookie Betts has slipped into the three spot five times himself and these four are going off in some order very consistently.  Meanwhile, Mike Trout is dominating the fifth spot, having been drafted there 15 times.  Trea Turner is the only other consensus first rounder joining these five monsters for the honor.  Picking anywhere in the top five is dreamy this season and picking fifth is fine by me.  I’ll take my Mike Trout and get to pick sooner on the way back.

WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP

We’ve got RCL ADP!  Here’s a list from our twenty league sample of some guys I’m lusting for this year and some general notes.  If there’s an ADP you’re curious about for my next update, fire away and I’ll add them to the chart next time out.  This time around I decided to look at some of the kids everyone is excited to draft as well as some soon to be AARP members.

PLAYER ADP HI LO
Randy Arozarena 61.8 49 79
Trent Grisham 71.95 50 99
Kyle Lewis 85.6 55 126
Ian Anderson 98.7 72 137
Jesus Luzardo 99.3 78 166
Alec Bohm 102.35 84 141
Sixto Sanchez 112.55 50 173
Ke’Bryan Hayes 126.7 78 164
Ryan Mountcastle 154.25 122 182
Jarred Kelenic 167.4 115 199
Triston McKenzie 193.9 108 264
Jo Adell 295.05 261 300

As I’m looking at this chart I’ve realized that Juan Soto is younger than all of them.  Yeesh.  These are the new kids on the drafting block I guess.  Randy, Trent and Kyle are the hot, new thing in outfielders that everyone has to have this year.  Sadly, I haven’t ended up with any of them yet.  Mostly, I think this range is when I’m eyeballing my first starter or filling out my infield.  

Ian Anderson and Jesus Luzardo have sizable ranges, but check out the range on Sixto!  173 is a crime and 50 is crumby with crackers (or just Dylan Vaughan Skorish drafting) but I have been trying to land Sixto where I can.

Alec Bohm is a nice CI when you miss on the early ones and pass on the old ones. I think he returns plenty of value around pick 100.

Triston McKenzie is right on the cusp of pitchers that I’m not looking to draft in RCLs and just opting for streamers instead, it really depends on how the rest of my pitching looks.  He’s got another crazy range, from just outside the top 100 to almost undrafted at 264.

Finally, we have Jo Adell.  Being the keeper of RCL data is nice, because I can go back and do some digging.  For example, Adell’s ADP last draft season was 224.  I don’t think he should be going undrafted in leagues.  It’s crazy what a whacky 60 game season can do to a promising prospect’s ADP.  Oh, and Joe Maddon.

Now, out with new, in with the old:

PLAYER ADP HI LO
Jose Abreu 34.3 25 46
Clayton Kershaw 41.75 29 70
Lance Lynn 52.2 17 75
Paul Goldschmidt 80.25 64 95
J.D. Martinez 90.25 65 128
Nelson Cruz 96.5 55 120
Zack Greinke 107.2 82 161
Charlie Morton 128.5 88 184
Corey Kluber 166.35 108 271
Josh Donaldson 182.75 133 237
David Price 202.75 130 291
Andrew McCutchen 207.25 178 234

I still refuse to believe in Lance Lynn being a reliable thing.  I refuse this in spite of myself, I realize that, but it’s my hill to die on.

Of course, I’ve also denied Nelson Cruz being a thing for the past….5 seasons?  So, what do I know.

I know that Charlie Morton, at 37, intrigues more than many other pitchers.  Pick 88 is pretty dang early, but around pick 150 or so, I’m down.

Josh Donaldson is the “Oh no, I totally forgot to grab a CI” last ditch effort to get one that could be steady.  I think I’d rather have Austin Riley, going a little later, but I almost always have CI filled in by this point.

RCL ADP SHEET

If you made it this far, you earn a reward.  I told you I was a numbers nerd.  Now you can take a look at any player you want as more and more data is collected.  I’ll be keeping that sheet up to date as I collect draft data, so bookmark it and check back often.  Next, head down to the spreadsheet below and fill up some more leagues so we have even more data to chew through!

TO JOIN A LEAGUE

Click the LINK in the ‘League Link’ column (see below grid) for the time you want and YOU’RE IN.  Damn, that’s too easy.  Oh, I guess I should also mention make sure you’re joining a league for free or for money, depending on your preference.  If you want a league for money, then 1) Click the link. 2) Pay the money.  That’s it!  No pesky third requirement!  Again, Fantrax and Razzball take no money.  You can join as many free or paid leagues as you like.  To quit a league, go to OTHER –> All Options –> Quit League (located at the bottom).  Now go join some leagues!

Want to be my Twitter pal?  That’s kinda creepy, but you can follow me here: @MattTruss

 
  1. Richard says:
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    Is Malamoney doing his points league spreadsheet this year?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yes, it comes out today I’m told

      • Richard says:
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        I was getting worried, haven’t heard from the guy on a while

  2. Caught Nappin says:
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    Member of RCL#23 here. My first RCL ever. I was SHOOK by the batter only strategy and couldn’t help but take deGrom with my first pick, even though i read all the RCL draft strategy posts.. It was such a different beast than i’m used to! Love my team, but time will tell!

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      It certainly is! You recovered nicely though. I think you may be a smidge light in the HR/RBI department, but we’ll see. Nice work on your first RCL draft!

      • Caught Nappin says:
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        Thanks! I am a bit concerned on those stats, but they should be the easiest to stream,right? right….? T_T At least our league’s trade market is already revving up!

      • D Fresh says:
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        Truss, Sneetches sniped me so many times in this draft. Love the double picks at the turn. Well played.

        Nappin, solid draft. Welcome to the RCL family!

        • MattTruss

          MattTruss says:
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          It was a fun draft! I like ending up with the entire Padres pitching staff, minus Yu. You got me a few times too!

    • VinWins

      VinWins says:
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      Still needing 1

  3. Cram It says:
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    I’m out on Lynn too, especially as SP1.

    I’m in on J-Mart. I’ll eat him up all day at around 90. I don’t know if it’s the UTIL position eligibility, but a guy like Castellanos going way before him, where a typical year for him, would be a considerable down J-Mart year.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Ya, that’s fair. I don’t mind Just Dongs either, but that UTIL only is tough. I’ve been snaggin Yordong earlier or waiting for Ohtani at UTIL, but I wouldn’t throw JD out.

  4. Rick Brown says:
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    I drafted in the RCL 17 last nite that started about 45 minutes late-thanks to Matt for gettin’ us going.
    I was able to snag Ryan Mountcastle at pick 201.Looking at adp so far I think I di pretty good.
    Thanks again Matt for all you do.
    RICK-Zoe’s Boys21

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      That was so odd, which reminds to big FanTrax about that! My pleasure, happy to help!

  5. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    Great job Matt

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Thanks Al!

      • Stephen King says:
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        League 28 Draft Room is not open to all of its players. It is supposed to be right NOW

  6. Tweak says:
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    Excellent work, as usual Matt!

    I’d take Goldy and Cutch in those ranges. Kluber’s high-end is a bit high, but the low-end is a nice low-risk flyer.

    Kelenic should get play this year, but I’m not taking him 100-150 to risk having him sit on the bench for weeks.

    I’m happy enough with the outcome of my draft in RCL 15:

    C – W Ramos
    1B – V Guerrero Jr
    2B – B Lowe
    3B – M Machado
    SS – A Mondesi
    CI – Y Gurriel
    MI – T Anderson
    OF – M Trout (pick 5!)
    OF – L Gurriel Jr
    OF – I Happ
    OF – R Mountcastle
    OF – W Myers
    BN – L Taveras
    BN – C Kieboom

    SP – Z Wheeler
    SP – C Paddack
    SP – G Marquez
    SP – T Mahle
    SP – M Stroman
    SP – M Boyd
    SP – E Rodriguez
    RP – J Hader
    RP – J Karinchak
    RP – H Neris

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Looks really solid! Hader/Karinchak is just plain nasty. Personally, I’d probably ditch Boyd and maybe Mahle for relievers to hunt more saves. Probably ditch the bench spots for streaming relievers and starters once the season starts too. Solid foundation though, good luck!

      • Tweak says:
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        Thanks. Yeah, I assume everyone past Wheeler/Paddack are varying levels of streamable, depending on how things are going. Hoping for good years from Stroman (my favorite pitcher to watch) with a better defense behind him and Marquez (following a much needed trade from Denver).

        Taveras is a reasonable chance at SB after a strong base with Mondesi and Anderson. Hopefully he holds onto the CF job (and daily ABs) in Texas. Kieboom is a guess at a post-hype guy with room to grow.

        Plenty of other options available with Kintzler, Staumont, Tyler Rogers, Lucas Sims, Jarlin Garcia and Brusdar Graterol all out there. Emmanuel Clase and Tanner Scott are my secret picks to be this year’s Devin Williams-type of valuable RP.

        By the way, the White Sox have such a good ‘pen with guys that could conceivably close on other teams. Kopech could be their 5th best RP this year (assuming he doesn’t slide into their rotation at all).

  7. Stephen King says:
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    League 28 draft room is not set up and we are suppose to draft in 4 minutes

  8. kyroadz says:
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    League 30 is waiting on the commish to set up for draft. Who’s the commissioner?

  9. danred11 says:
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    I’ve sent an email to the commish of my league but just wondering if I can add a co-owner to my RCL team. I’ve looked through the settings and I can’t find a way but I’m hoping the commish can.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      I sent you an email from the FanTrax site, I just need your co-managers email address, send it to me here: [email protected] and I’ll hook you up

      • danred11 says:
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        I did email you with the info you needed so hopefully you go it. For some strange reason, I never received your email through the Fantrax site. Thanks for the help Matt, I appreciate it.

  10. WILLIAM MARTIN says:
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    hey ya’ll… fifteenth time, long time. i had my RCL draft scheduled for this evening at 9pm EST and some jamoke left the league (#33, I believe) like 40 minutes before the draft… someone else in the league knew the exact time the player left, so I’m not sure whether there was foul play afoot or whatever–but c’mon! this way my Friday night!

    i’ve joined up with Matt Truss’ league #35 that drafts tomorrow evening, and am hopeful 2 more teams can join, too. i’m not sure whether in the future fantrax can prevent teams from leaving a league so close to draft time, but that would definitely be mucho appreciated.

Comments are closed.