My prior, uber, hard-line stance has been that you with that one hair wrapped around your head acting as a hairstyle don’t want to draft a sleeper 1st baseman. By the by, I tried to replace Uber with Lyft in the previous sentence, but it didn’t make sense. Previously, I’d tell you to go to my top 20 1st basemen for 2019 fantasy baseball (not clickbait at all) and draft some top guys and stop fooling around with sleepers at this position. Of course, I’m malleable like Gumby and this year and there are no top 1st basemen *ducks head* Whoa, someone threw a wrench into this! As with other positions like the catchers to target (again, not clickbait), these are 1st basemen that are being drafted late. For the 1st basemen, I’m going with an ADP of 150 or later, so you should have a 1st baseman already, and these are more corner infidels or utility guys, i.e., I love Rhys Hoskins, but he’s not going to appear here. Dear, steer clear–*short circuiting internal rhyming dictionary* Anyway, here’s some 1st basemen to target for 2019 fantasy baseball:
Travis Shaw (150 Yahoo ADP) *looking at Yahoo’s ranking of Shaw, insert GIF of Ron Burgundy saying, “I don’t believe you.”* I mean, I love Shaw, but, c’mon, he’s not going to be around for pick 150. I suck my teeth and p-Shaw that.
Max Muncy (164 ESPN) All three of these first, um, 1st basemen are just poorly ranked by ESPN and Yahoo, and I’m not going to spend too much time pecking with my hand gams on them. To read more: my Max Muncy sleeper.
Jurickson Profar (172 Yahoo) It’s silly to think he’s around by pick 172. Draft him. Dot dot dot. Way before that.
Luke Voit (182 NFBC, 224 ESPN, 191 Yahoo) The other day Luke Voit homered in his first Spring Training at-bat. Then Greg Bird homered. Then Voit. Then Bird. Then 1,200+ other professional baseball players quit baseball to raise cattle and start a family, because Voit and Bird are just too darn good. Spring Training is stupid. Every year Greg Bird is Mr. Grapefruit with a huge spring, and has a career 31 homers across three seasons. With that said (Grey’s going to reverse everything he just said!), there is a battle to be the starting 1st baseman for the Yanks, so it’s worth paying attention. I like Voit to win the job, hearts, minds and confirm 1,200 baseball players weren’t wrong to quit the sport. Also, I gave you a Luke Voit sleeper.
Jake Bauers (234 NFBC, 218 ESPN, 185 Yahoo) I look at Bauers’s projected stats (20/15/.250), then I look at Tommy Pham’s projected stats (20/15/.275), and it’s like I’m looking at Millie Bobby Brown and Natalie Portman. “Okay, one of these would get me arrested for looking at and one of these I’ve replaced my wife’s name with on my iPhone so when she calls it says ‘Natalie Portman,’ but I’ll be damned if I can tell the difference between them real quick.”
Pete Alonso (262 NFBC, 287 ESPN, 278 Yahoo) This is not Peter Alonso! Don’t you dare confuse the two! Seriously, Peter Alonso announced in Spring Training that he would go by Pete instead of Peter. That’s the white man’s version of Kendry going to Kendrys or Mike to Giancarlo. One day, Peter woke, and said to himself, “I really enjoy Casual Fridays. Ya know what? I’m going to make every day Casual Fridays! For Pete’s sake!” Then his girlfriend rolled her eyes and thanked God that he was going to be away for the next eight months, playing baseball. I still don’t know if the Mets are going to make the right choice and go with Alonso as their starting 1st baseman, but it’s feeling 60/40 right now vs. 40/60 when I did my rankings, so I’ve actually moved him up in my top 20 1st basemen rankings. (By the by, I also changed my top 500, top 100, top 20 catchers and top 20 starters for, in no particular order: Luis Severino, Miguel Sano, Salvador Perez, and Alonso.
Tyler White (263 NFBC, ESPN 265, 215 Yahoo) He should change his name too like Alonso. *taps on microphone* “Thank you all for gathering today for this press conference. It means a lot to me. From this day forward, I will be known as Tyler Honkey.” *news reporters get up to leave* “I’m kidding! Call me Tyler Eggshell White, though. I’m serious about that.” Right now, Eggshell has the inside track to 550 at-bats and having huge value. However, in Houston, that can change abruptly to ‘platooning with three other guys,’ but it’s a solid gamble. Also, Anime Grey goes over Tyler White in the video:
Niko Goodrum (298 NFBC, 281 ESPN, unranked Yahoo) This guy would never change his name, Goodrum is already top shelf! All jokes aside (were they jokes?), I’m shockingly the only one interested in Goodrum this year. You’d think at least some of you boozehounds would inadvertently get excited. He has 20-homer power and 20-steal speed. That help? He should hit .255 or better? Nothing still? How about the fact that the Tigers are terrible and he should get 500+ at-bats? Still nothing? How about the fact that I just drafted him? That makes you dislike him more? Not cool, man.
scherzer @ $41 or nola @ 31?
Hola Grey –
Need some help identifying my keepers for a 14 team 5×5 Roto League. We each get 2 keepers, and their value is based on player’s average auction value for this year and his draft price from last year. The net is if I’m saving or losing money based on the average of the two. Here are my options – pick 2!
Harper: $40 (net -$4 based on his AAV this year)
Altuve: $44 (net -$4 based on AAV)
Muncy: $5 (net +$4 based on AAV)
Tim Anderson: $5 (net +$3)
Mazara: $13 (net -$7)
Bauer: $18 (net +$3)
Corbin: $9 (net +$8)
Taillon: $8 (net +$6)
If I wanted to “save” as much draft dollars as possible it would make sense to go with a combo of Corbin, Taillon, or Muncy. But… still like Harper and Mazara, but the negative savings sucks. Help me out!
10 team 5×5 h2h dynasty keeper league (snake)
(penalty round in parenthesis)
would you do the below trade for baez?
goldie (2nd) and stras (7th) for baez (2nd) and berrios (8th)
Random question . . . does your top 500 ranking of Leonys factor in that he seems to be starting the season hitting leadoff full time (at least per roster resource)?
Seems like he’s a sneaky-good $1 OF5 in mixed leagues, esp for runs and maybe a 20/10 15/15 sort of thing if he doesn’t get hurt…
Yeah, and he won’t stay healthy for more than 250 ABs, and Zimmer returns at some point
I might have to auto draft in one of my leagues. Is there anywhere on the site I can look for tips on that? Thanks as always
I’d input Rudy’s rankings, and drop way down players you don’t want (like catchers and injured pitchers)
Thoughts on either of these trades in my 16-team keeper.
Batting cats are R, HR, RBI, SB, OPS // Pitching cats are W, K, ERA, WHIP, NSVH
1. I give Tatis and Flaherty. I get Yelich.
2. I give Nola. I get Yelich.
My SPs right now are Sale, Nola, Flaherty, Folty, and JA Happ. I can keep 4 SPs.
My OFs right now are JD, Conforto, D. Peralta, S. Marte
MiLB (keep up to 6): Tatis, Kirilloff, Trammell, Yordan Alvarez, N. Pearson, Luis Garcia (WSH), Nolan Gorman, and Larnach
What’s the catch? These are no brainers… Give Nola for Yelich
@Grey: Ha! Maybe I just love Nola so that it clouds my judgment. Or maybe it’s I won the league last year and am nervous to break up the core.
Is Sale, Flaherty, Folty, and Happ a sturdy top 4 for a 16-teamer?
Time to lock in my 3 keepers for the year (Yahoo 12 team root 6×6 with added OPS and QS, using SV+H). I assume I’m still good on keeping Mookie, Acuna, and Story? Other options include Goldschmidt or Beni (only can keep this year), Mondesi, Soto, Bauer. Thanks as usual.
Yup, looks good
My $1 Buehler for His $16 Hoskins and Royce Lewis?
It’s fair, be good to have league context
@Grey: Sure. 12 Team 6×6 with OPS and QS. 9 keepers plus 3 free minor leaguers. Currently have Baez, Bregman, Machado, Benintendi, Conforto, Snell, Buehler, Foltynewicz, Glasnow as my keepers. Contracts are A-E. For example a $1A player would go $1A, $1b, $6c, $16d, $31e and then would go back in to the pool. Bueler is a $1b and Hoskins in a $16c
I like Walker
Awesome post Grey!
Finished my draft last night in my 10 team H2H league. I had 10 keepers going in so was mostly targeting pitching:
C – Alfaro
1B – Hoskins
2B – Baez
3B – Bregman
SS – Trea
OF – Trout
OF – Betts
OF – Dahl
Util – Peraza
BN: Hiura, W. Franco
SP: Bauer, Marquez, E-Rod, Bieber, Lucchesi, Eovaldi, Ryu, Iglesias, Robertson
I picked up Hiura and Franco at the end of the draft as most of the top 15 prospects are owned given it’s a keeper. However guys like Voit, Domingo, Piscotty, T.White, Bauers, Goodrum, Cody Allen and Knebel are available.
Any gaps you see on the team and would you make any swaps from the available guys?
Thanks! Looks like you followed my advice, nothing I can complain about there — love the hitting and pitching
@Grey: This is for sure a “Grey approved” team. Thanks again for all the rankings and advice!
Great post as always.
I am in a 15 team 7×6 (obp, ops, BAA) Roto Auction league. Players go up $5 per year if you keep them.
I can keep 10.
I got offered a 3 for 3 trade.
I would trade
Corey Seager $16
I would get
Danny Jansen $1
Blake Treinen $11
Adalberto Mondesi $2
My other keepers would be
Kris Bryant $27
Tatis Jr. $1
Kyle Tucker $1
Javier Baez $6
Austin Meadows $6
Mike Foltynewicz $1
Then choose 1 btwn Alex Reyes $6, Luzardo $1, David Robertson $5
Normally I wouldn’t trade for or even think to keep relievers but they actually get pretty expensive in this league because it is 15 teams and there are som many committees now.
What do you think?
You’re not getting enough in that trade
So a Sevy question. I have 4 solid hitting keepers (Trea, Machado, Lindor, Arenado) and was planning to keep Severino as my final 5th keeper at 9th round value. Would you consider not keeping him and holding onto Puig or Felipe Vasquez who would be 10th round picks? Im thinking Severino would be solid value in the 9th still but a bit worried as a Yankee fan and fantasy owner. Also the following pitchers are being kept in my league, so not sure how this influences your advice: Degrom, Verlander, Snell, Bauer, Buehler, Corbin, Flaherty, Thor, Paxton. I have the 12th pick in my snake draft so will likely be able to snag a stud pitcher with my 1st or 2nd round picks (12th/13th picks). Thanks as always.
Hold onto Puig instead
thanks el Capitan,who do u like the best dropping Green and who else would u drop for
RCL league,no im weak at starting pitching with some hopefulls,what do u think and recomend any moves
fill n for Vlad,hot bat out of spring
this league hasnt acted like they care much about closers so far as there are still a handfull of possible closers on waiver
You should grab those waiver closers if you can… Team looks solid tho, I like the hitting a lot, and your pitching is risky, but fine for RCL…
I am looking for some keeper advice. It’s a 12 team roto auction where you can keep 8–can keep total of 3 years. I plan to keep the following for sure:
Yelich at $33 for 2 more years
Bauer at $16 for 2 more years
Corbin at $4 for 2 more years
Buehler at $10 for 2 more years
Peraza at $10 for 2 more years
Dahl at $10 for 2 more years
Are you good with those 6?
My other two keepers are from this list:
Machado at $50 for 2 more years
Arenado at $54 for 2 more years
Castellanos at $3 for 1 more year
Shaw at $10 for 1 more year
R Osuna at $10 for 2 more years
C Seager at $10 for 2 more years
Grandal at $3 for 2 more years
If I kept Grandal, I would spend $1 on second C. If I kept Osuna, I wouldn’t have to spend on other closers which can eat up $20-25 of budget. But don’t like keeping catchers and closers. Total budget is $300. How would you play the last two keepers?
Thank you. Your posts are the best and its not close. Love the “no ads” option as does my computer.
Keep Osuna and Grandal if you can, at least Osuna
So Osuna at $10 and Grandal at $3 over Machado at $50 and Arenado at $54? This team was so good last year it is sad to break it up—smile.
I keep flip flopping and need someone to drop some logic on my keeper choices:
2 keepers in the round they were picked prior year. Round one is thin because people pluck value out of it. I have Acuna locked up as a 5th rounder. But my 2nd keeper is giving me anxiety:
Arenado (rd 1 pick 9) (which is really like a mid 2nd round pick)
Nola round 6 (as my first SP most likely)
6×6 ops / Qs — 12 team league
S. Doolittle Was – RP FOR R. Stripling I have Stripling in dynasty league been offered Doodylittle –
Doolittle is better for this year and future, unless Kimbrel signs with the Nats, then his value is done
Yesterda decided to keep tatis as last keeper nl only
Any of these for him
If i add in $1 dominquez or knebel or hicks
To add to my rivera
Would then have to cut a keeper like $26 nola
Would you do this
I have chance to pick either Grienke, Price, Bum, or Kershaw
It’s two years keeper, which one I should pick with 2-year keeper consideration? Tks
And I have Secerino, Cole already
Thanks. You rank Greinke higher , so pick him if just 1 year, then pick Price if keep two years?
Understand not pick Kershaw, too much risk… though I loved him…
I would not draft Greinke in any league
@Grey: Rudy likes him!
@The Great Knoche: i am meh on greinke. liked him in this case b/c i had plenty of K’s from verlander and liked his innings floor vs the alternatives (which included paxton)
My NFBC team stinks! I got Odor!
Haha, I like that Odor!
@Grey: followed up with Cano. Now it is kinda stinky but I needed some average help.
@The Great Knoche:
It’s Rudy pick!
@frankgrimes: liked your last picks. The 15 hole suits you.
@The Great Knoche:
Just scooping up the scraps
Yeah, that’s just stinky
I’m with you on Nico Goodrum. Dude looks like a 20/20 guys, plus he’s eligible at like 14 different positions. Nobody’s buying it though. Makes me question my judgement … but dang he’s going into his age 27 season and we all know what that means … breakout!!!
I gotta figure a way to keep this guy on my roster. Right now he’s one of my last cuts. But I’m with you. I think there’s a lot more to this profile than people are seeing!
Yeah, I own Niko in 2 leagues already, might make it more if he’s there for me…
Hey Grey! Pumped for the rest of these to come out. Quick question for you with my draft right around the corner. I’m in a 10 team H2H 6×6 league with OPS and in our auction draft it tends to be very top spendy. I’m thinking I’ll use a majority of my budget to go hard after Mike Trout, Trea Turner, Acuna, KB/Rizzo, Mondesi.
1. What would be the max you would pay for those players
2. Do you think this is a good strategy? Hoping to get solid pitchers at the end.
Hey Grey – Keeper conundrum for you..I need to keep 4 here in a 5×5 Roto…
Ron Acuna – Round 5
JD Martinez – Round 4
Jean Segura – Round 16
Severino – Round 10
Buehler – Round 11
T Bauer – Round 7
Bumgarner – Round 6
Willie Calhoun – Round 20
I think the first two are obvious, then is it Bauer/Buehler or is Segura too good a value in Round 16.
Last 2 spots in a Roto keep 8 (no penalties) forever . . .
We’re set with our top 6: Mookie, Trea, Acuna, Vlad, Bryant, Bauer and need advice on the last 2
Ozuna, Aguilar… tough calls tho
I also love this adfree feature, and happy to support whatever you and Rudy do in your free time.
But now I’ll never know what octuplets look like all grown up, so it’s a bit of wash.
It’s a trADeoff
I got Wheeler fever! Seriously might own him in every league this year.
Thought you’d go with Robles in the 5th. Think Abreu would’ve come back around to you in the 6th. Do you like the Abreu/Castellanos pairing better?
No, I don’t… I was hoping Robles made it back to me… He was the guy I wanted in the 6th… I should’ve flipped the two, you’re right… I was looking at Wheeler for my pick, and I don’t know, his 2nd half was not amazing on peripherals…
@Grey: Wheeler had a sub-2 BB/9, 6th highest FBv, almost a strikeout per inning, 12th highest soft% in the 2nd half. Threw four above average pitches. Not to mention the HR suppression. Love him.
I’ve always liked Abreu, but a 15/30 skillset is pretty rare these days. That might be in the Robles wheelhouse.
Yeah, I like Wheeler too, but when I saw the BABIP and K/9 being under 9 I couldn’t pull the trigger… Same on Robles, I just couldn’t pull it… I love him too, a regret already…
I took Villar over Robles
Change my mind
I won’t, bc when I see Robles and I think about him possibly hitting 8th and Nats platooning him randomly… Well, it’s a toss up and I can’t argue it
A lot is timing/construction of draft anyhow.
You’re Fired Up!
Yeah, totally, but to say he thinks he has too much pitching is laughably terrible critique
@frankgrimes: Too bad we can’t trade. I took Robles in the 6th solely because you had already taken Villar. Villar was higher in my queue, but that was mostly position-based.
@Grey: The last time Wheeler threw 180IP before 2018 was 2016, which he followed up with 86IP in 2017, and he’s a Met. If he repeats he’s a solid value but the injury risk just seems too high for his ADP. I’d want a discount given his significant injury history. He seems like a Ryu or Hill more realistically to me but who knows…
Not that worried about injury (maybe incorrectly, since he can’t stay healthy and Mets), but more worried about him being drafted too high
And overestimating who he can be over course of a season
@Grey: Well only the one season out the last four has been good enough to warrant his current ADP. The question is wheter it was a breakthrough or flaming before the inevitable breakdown. We both agree price is too with slightly different reasoning.
Keeper conundrum for you Grey…I need to keep 4 here in a 5×5 Roto…
Ron Acuna – Round 5
JD Martinez – Round 4
Jean Segura – Round 16
Severino – Round 10
Buehler – Round 11
T Bauer – Round 7
Bumgarner – Round 6
Willie Calhoun – Round 20
Ron Acuna – Round 5
JD Martinez – Round 4
Jean Segura – Round 16
I think Grey and Rudy have officially become an old married couple.
Draft pairings Grey: Pair Trout with anyone except a pitcher or outfielder.
Toutwars Rudy: Takes Trout, then a pitcher and outfielder at the next turn. Then a catcher at the next turn to really consummate things.
I need some popcorn for this storyline.
Haha, we will never agree on catcher and that dirty Sanchez!
It’s like Rain Man.
You get Cruise and Hoffman.
@frankgrimes: Underrated comment
Hey Grey…sorry to go through you but not sure how to reach malemoney to ask when his “Points League Spreedsheet” is expected out? My draft is a week away and I LOVE his research…Am in mini – panic and would rather not look elsewhere cuz he da Points Spressdsheet man lol!
I will ask him
@Grey: Much Appreciated Grey!!!
Howdy Master Grey! Love your work been reading your columns for a few years now- good stuff! I’m pumped for the season!!
We are drafting st Patty’s day March 17, H2H pts/ weekly. However we can keep any two players . Keeper set up is rounds 1 & 2 dedicated to keepers then snake starts round 3.
I have a tough decision who to keep: my options are, Bryce Harper , Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Andrew Benintendi, Yelich, Vlad Guerrero jr, Carlos Correa , Alex bregman
I was thinking maybe Harper + Vlad Guerrero or Harper + Acuna. However I’m a huge Sox fan now I want benintendi on my team do I keep Benny + Harper or Benny + vlad? Or Benny + Acuna ?
Is vlad the realest deal? If I don’t keep him / someone drafts him before me will that come back to haunt me? I saw vlad last May in NH when he was with Double A fisher cats- he’s a beast!
I have been keeping Harper for the past few years now just not sure if you’re worried about him in philly or not really enough to not justify not keeping him?
Thanks man! FYI these keepers are year to year we aren’t locked in forever, sure I could keep the same players next year and so on but I don’t have to. I’ll look forward to reading your daily notes this summer!
Fun Q: which city should have an expansion mlb team & what should the name be?
Here are my ideas:
Portland, Oregon can be called either Oregon Salmon or Portland Salmon. Salmon is the state fish.
Portland Lumberjack? Oregon Orcas? Portland Orcas?
Next what about Nashville, TN?
With Nashville Stars? Nashville Cracker Jacks? Tennessee Fiddlers? Nashville Outlaws?
Next city Las Vegas , thinking since the nfl got a team going in Vegas why not mlb?
Names: Las Vegas Venom, Vegas ,Las Vegas Dust Devils? Las Vegas Buzzards? Las Vegas Wolf Pack?
Last two are the same state of North Carolina. However I’ll just group them into North Carolina:
Carolina catawbas (the Catawba Native American tribe used to live around Charlotte). Raleigh Renegades, Carolina Coastal, Carolina Screamin Gulls
Thanks man ! I
So 2 keepers? Harper/Acuna — no doubt
Vegas will get a team, but it will need to be indoor, and if one more team, then they need two to balance, so Oregon too? Oregon Artisanal Honey and Vegas Pai Gows
Probably late to the party on this but I’m loving the new ad free feature. I can zip around the site so much faster. Way more clicks for you guys.
Yeah, ad free really is worth it — it’s goofy fast with it
Maybe this suggestion might belong in a “sleeper” category, but I’m curious why you didn’t include Ryan O’Hearn in this piece. Dude has some serious pop, playing time doesn’t seem to be an issue either. Yeah, he’s in the wasteland known as Kansas City. But I think there is some serious value/upside here for a very LOW price.
Am I off my rocker?
He’s going around pick 400, bit late for this series, but he’s fine at his price
Even though my pitching is weak, I can’t pass up getting Giancarlo for Paxton and K. Jansen right?
It’s a redraft league.
@Worm Burner: Nope
12 team H2H 5×5 keeper league. Have several 1st rounders but can only keep 1 of those. Which 4 of these would you keep at their respective round value:
T. Bauer (10)
E. Rosario (12)
J. Aguilar (13)
A. Hicks (19)
@Smell The Glove:
Bauer tho Rosario is tempting
Agree with Grimey
Hi Grey– reporting in from the field. My 3rd NFBC Razz draft, now in round 8 –BTW will miss looking up in standings to see you, like last 2 years — NOT.
Through 7 rounds, 39 pitchers taken, 11 are closers. Wow. Includes 10 SP in first two rounds.
Is this a trend this year, or just what?
Blowin’ up Dope Ass Rapper.
Thanks as always.
@Gigorilla: Haha, I miss you too! People love the 1st ten to 12 pitchers, then their love evaporates… Just go heavy on the Bieber section of the pitching draft…
My first 2 SP –
German M round 6
D Price round 7
Some of actually listen.
Yes 9-15 has good arms as my new Razz executive nemesis Rudy mentioned.
Thought you’d go Conforto. Why didn’t you listen to yourself????
How’s your team shaping up Oak?
I grabbed Chapman and have buyers remorse already
I just took Castellanos and Abreu
Pro tip don’t make your first draft of year a slow draft.
Wow, I was saying to Rudy yesterday I think it’s the best way to start… Gives you a lay of the land w/out worrying about the clock
Great point but I have draft fever!
Me too! Sorry, what did Flowers say, I wanna drag him
Disliked his lineup construction, the Sanchez pick (r5 turn) and said he had way too many pitchers
You got me fired up!
We’re pretty happy so far. Started with four bats which gave Magoo the agita. Harper, Benny, Bellinger, Segura. All those guys pretty balanced players, all with reasonable floor and some upside.
Caught Flaherty and Wheeler in 5-6. Flaherty I was kind of down on, but I’m always willing to be wrong. I’ll take the risk there that he can be the low end 1 people think he can be. Maybe it was a recency bias, but he looked nasty yesterday. We both love Wheeler.
Now we can sit around for the next 12 hours and watch people draft closers
You were saying you didn’t like Flaherty!
I was and so was magoo to a lesser extent. I feel like it was more pumping the breaks than being down on him, but I now choose to embrace the counter narrative where he’s a pasty Bob Gibson. Anyway you like him and as you know I slavishly follow your advice.
Please! I think you get caught up in spring training narratives and Flaherty was pumping ye olde Ks yesterday!
I am much more prepared to be wrong these days. In this case it was convenient to be wrong as good Flaherty makes a good fit on that team. Also did you see the slider Anon Philly scrub whiffed on yesterday???
Haha, I know, he looked incredible, trying not to overrate his ST results, but I did love him two months ago too, so there’s that…
@Grey: “Pumping ye olde Ks”
Makes him sound like the star of a medieval pick up game. He would’ve crushed it in any era!
Three up, and three gouts
Oak! Yeah, I know, such a bore with Castellanos… I was between him and Conforto, not 100% sure why I didn’t go Conforto, figured I could use a little AVG more than power… I really should’ve taken some SBs, but there were none there to take, and I don’t see myself owning Mallex
@OaktownSteve: Wheeler was on my list of possible grabs too… Then I looked at his 2nd half, his BABIP was goofy and his Ks and walks weren’t that much better for the resulting ERA
We thought you might grab Wheeler. For me with him was pretty much just watching the tape. Very reminiscent of deGrom in a way with the four pitch mix, the way he was commanding the fastball. His BB rate went down to 1.80 in the second half. The fastball velocity was the highest of his career at nearly 96. All his pitches graded out above average. Even if you want to take the babip out of it and use the 3.47 xFIP that’s still a nice floor and I think there’s upside from there given health.
I thought I might too, but I just couldn’t get behind that price, already having Walker and his 2nd half BABIP and K/9… I do like him tho
Ok, well I see you grabbed Castellanos at 81. Nice pick. I guess he’s not falling to me with my next at 104. I diverted a bit from my norm and grabbed BOTH Marquez and Berrios with 74 and 77. That totally had to do with other guys I wanted being gone already and being wary of losing out on SPs later as I’m ina weird draft position. I go 104/107/134/137/164/167. There are a lot of arms I like in the 150-170 range but most of them are your sleepers so they will probably get scooped up before they snake back to me so… Berrios/Marquez it is!
As far as 1B’s, looks like you’re hoping to a return to form on Abreu. Ill hope for your sake his testacles were adequately preserved after last years late season scare.
@Dave D: I’ve drafted Abreu in 2 leagues now, and I have to say in March is the only time I ever like Abreu… Always end up drafting him… I liked the German/Berrios picks… I was actually planning on taking German if he fell to me in the 6th round even tho I have Walker…. Castellanos was kinda boring, but whatever, he usually is a solid floor
@Grey: Yeah, thanks. I hope I don’t regret not picking Olson, Conforto, Castellanos, Aguilar there instead but for every pick you do make, there’s a few that you lose out on. We’ll see what’s there when it snakes back our way. All those guys off the board already except Aguilar who wont make it back either.
Yeah, I’ll take Aguilar if he’s still there, but he won’t make it to me either
12-team 15-player keeper/dynasty (I’m not entirely clear on the distinction) league. Our keepers are due this weekend.
I find myself wanting to make space for Julio Urias, watching him throw in spring training. Would it be insane to keep him over Muncy? Odor?
My other keepers are:
Yelich, Soto, Dahl
Hoskins, Murphy, Peraza, Rendon
Corrasco, Nola, Berrios, Hendricks, Pivetta, Hader
The sense I get from talking to other managers is that people are clutching their pitchers tightly and available pitching is likely to be thin in the draft….
@JM: Yes, insane
@Grey: hahahaha ok thank you for setting me straight. That made me do a real lol…
Sorry for my absence this spring. I know you miss my witless comments. I’ve been – umm – busy.
Short notice, but I need advice on my last keeper slot (we keep 8 up to three times). League is 7×6 with obp, slg and holds.
Contenders: Donaldson, Doolittle, Ohtani, Myers, or bonus pick at the end of Round 1. Donaldson and Myers have been kept twice already and I don’t want to keep them anyway. Doolittle is safe (I don’t have another closer kept), but meh. I’d probably pick him up again in the bonus round anyway. Ohtani is a wildcard. Not worth the keep yet, but hasn’t been kept, and I can scoop up his pitcher side on the last day of the season. So, Ohtani, or roll the dice on the bonus pick?
@Grey: My man. Thanks!
Would you rather take a shot on pineda or Merrill Kelly as a last round pick? Probably first guy I cut, but we are 400 picks into the draft. Thx
These are my favorite posts of yours (beside rankings) but I have a draft on Saturday and it doesn’t look like you’ll get through all the positions by then.
Is there any chance I am wrong….ha. I appreciate the content and customer service!
Haha, you’re not wrong
This post comes at a perfect time for me. I have to make my dynasty keeper decisions today and I’m stuck with one big decision.
Do I keep Goldschmidt for $56? And before you tell me to look at Rudy’s $ values, I have and they say don’t do it. But I’m leaning towards keeping him and want to know what you think. I’ll provide additional clarity now.
It is a 14-team H2H points league with unlimited keepers and a $300 salary cap. Each year you keep a player their salary escalates $5. Rosters are 27 players (20 active, 7 bench). Needless to say, every player you listed above as a late target is already owned and will most likely be kept for the $5 minimum.
This is my year to go all the way. I am stacked with Top 20 hitters on good contracts. I’m currently planning to keep the following players:
Max Scherzer $39, Kyle Hendricks $15, Kenley Jansen $15, Jose Berrios $10, Alex Wood $10, Kenta Maeda $5, Jack Flaherty $5, Brent Honeywell $5, Tyler Glasnow $5, Wade LeBlanc $5
J.D. Martinez $22, Javier Baez $15, Francisco Lindor $15, Aaron Judge $15, Tim Anderson $10, Rafael Devers $10, Mitch Haniger $10, David Peralta $6, Chris Taylor $5, Stephen Piscotty $5
This would leave me with $73 in cap space to use during the auction, but my roster would have no 1b and I would need to fill 7 spots. For context, during last years draft the top available players were Miggy (drafted for $44), Encarnacion ($38), Ohtani ($55), Kyle Seager ($31), Cole ($47), David Price ($41), Cueto ($30).
Knowing Goldschmidt would most likely be the best player available in the draft, he would probably go for $60-70+ (Trout is a keeper for $61 and Kershaw was kept at $70 last season -probably wont be kept again).
If I keep him for $56, it gives me one of the best 1b in the game, but I go into the draft with $17 to fill 6 spots (a catcher, a bench bat, and some cheap SP/RPs).
Would I be crazy to keep him? Sorry for the rant, just can’t make up my mind. Thanks in advance for all your wisdom!
@abmsports23: Sounds like you should probably keep him…
Yes, keep him, figure out your catcher, bench with the remaining $
Mocked in yahoo a couple of days ago, Shaw went 142 cause I wanted to see how far he would fall… what a deal.
Does Fantrax have an official app or does everything have to be done on via internet/desktop? I looked on the App Store and it wasn’t there but wanted to double check.
Yeah, it’s all about how long one can wait for him… Love him, and he’s going way too late… I think you have to used internet browser on phone, not sure tho… Truss might know
@Grey: Yeah… i wont be waiting that long in a real draft but that is such amazing value. I will probably own him in every league thanks to your analysis. Thanks! I will just use that then.
Hey Grey, great article. Just finished a draft 12 team 6×6 OBP & SLG instead of average
C- Empty (put WW after Cesoedes goes on DL)
OF- Acuna, Soto, Dahl, D Santana
UTL- Muncy, Shaw,
P- Flaherty, Luccehesi, Wheeler, Marquez, Bieber, Archer, Urias
RP: Treinen, Iglesias
Minor- Wander Franco, Kiriloff, Honeywell Luzardo, Mize & MAC Gore
Bench: peacock, Laureno, cespedes, Wendle
Am I good enough of pitching and suggestion of who to target if not. I feel like I have enough on speed if I plug in Laureno.
Looks like a pitching staff I’d draft myself… You look like you have enough speed — you have Baez, Villar, Albies, FReeman, Acuna, Domingo, Dahl and Laureano… Plenty of speed
Grey, how do you approach shallow leagues with large benches and unlimited moves? I joined a 10 team keeper, and there are 28 positions, 9 of those are bench. I was trolling last year’s final rosters and teams were generally holding 7 bats when there are only 10 starting batter positions. I was getting ready to draft a bench full of SP and closer lotteries and now I’m shook.
@Fungazi 2.0: Typo – they are holding 17 bats for 10 positions (7 bench for bats).
You need to have some bench bats, but drafting them is not necessarily warranted… You can just pick up bench bats in-season… With a 9 person bench, I’d likely go big upside on bench to see if people break camp with a job, like Dominic Smith, Alonso, etc
@Grey: Yes, definitely need big upside, this teams keepers are ugly. I don’t want a single grey pube touching my bench after the draft. Thanks!
Sorry to post this on your 1b article, but I’ve reached the point in my slow draft where I want to take a pitching prospect in my keep forever league. All the top names are available except Whitley and Luzardo. I trust your pitching knowledge more than any other site I’ve read, so which young prospect would you hitch your wagon to in hopes of being a stud #1 guy? Maybe a 1st, 2nd, 3rd list for future picks too!
@TC: Is Alex Reyes available still? After him, Paddack, Honeywell, Puk, and Gore are other nice options…Kopech as a stash for next year.
Agree with Donkey
First year doing rcl, got 2 teams when the drafts overlap. Need to drop one. So it can fill. Does some one know how on fantrax thanks Peter league # 53
Go to Options then Quit League
Would you target as a late pick Miguel Cabrera considering he will move to full time DH and can, in theory, less likely to get injured?
Is someone running for him to first on a single? Was playing 1B a big reason he got hurt in years past?
Grey, I need your help sir.
In a yahoo 20 team dynasty, keep anyone forever with no values, now 10 N/A slots. I had won my league 2 years running but lost last year by 1 run, or 2 bases or 1 save. I need your advice on changes I should make this year. I already traded for Bregman but overpaid. Advice?
Kyle Seager (CI)
Kristian Robinson (NA players)
Dustin May (NA players)
I will be adding a few starting pitchers/and some relief pitchers. Any thoughts?
Looks like a decent hitting team, obviously you need MI and CI help, but maybe a bench player can help there… Your pitching looks very short on arms, you might have only two SPs
I am 7 players short on bench. Do you have any recommendations on pitchers in the 320+ range? I am thinking will Harris, Chris devinski, wade Miley, David Paulino, Merrill kelly, eikhoff, Caleb Smith…. any others you would recommend.
FYI, I use your rankings/pitcher assessments/prospects and have specifically built this team with your input. I really appreciate.
Especially the yahoo/greys ranking differences posts are especially helpful. Alright enough metaphorically tickling your pickle….
Any help is appreciated.
Those guys don’t jump out at me as having to be owned, unless a Holds league… I mean, they’re ok… Not sure who else is available tho
It is absolutely a holds league. That’s why I punt saves until the playoffs and pickup holds.
Who would you recommend I trade for a pitcher? Starting pitcher I’m assuming.
Oh, then grab Harris
Last question, I got offered Bellinger for rizzo and keuchel. Thoughts?
It’s a coin flip… I don’t want Keuchel, but Rizzo and Cody are same diff, depends on league, slight edge for Cody in keeper
10 team nl only auction roto keeper league. Which side of trade do you like
Nola 21 jturner 21 for t shaw 24 z wheeler 6
@Marti: It’s fair. Nola is the best player, Wheeler is the best value. Kind of depends what you can do with that extra money in your budget. Slight lean to Nola side for me, but could be convinced either way….
RCLs are back
BN Alonso, Polanco SOuza
Nice! Love the outfield… Very sexy… Your team looks low on AVG and SBs tho
In a 12 team redraft, with 2 guys at each position and 5 outfielders, 10 pitchers, 4 reserves including DL spots. Here is my team. Oh OPS and net wins. So 6×5.
Y. Sanchez 3b/hopefully 2b
It’s a razzball type team but predicted for 9th place. I was wondering about Voit over someone? One guy held off on pitchers till the 11th round and another only took one SP thru 9 rounds. I couldn’t help myself grabbing the pitchers.
@packers2018: Voit needs to be owned. I’d cut any of Fletcher, Yolmer or Eflin for him.
Voit over Yolmer, if you don’t need him
I know spring training stats are meaningless, but given how dominant Flaherty has been, would you consider keeping him over Snell or Mondesi?
What about my question? Would you keep Flaherty over Snell or Mondesi?
@Bobby: I wouldn’t consider Flaherty over those other two
Was offered Taillon and 2 picks in my upcoming draft (12 Keepers/12 Team points league) for Severino. Do i get rid of Sevy before this gets any worse?
@Skip Mcgillicuddy: Syndergaard, Flaherty, Buehler are my other keeper arms
@Skip Mcgillicuddy: yes i would,at worst u have Talion and two picks,thier numbers arent predicted to be that far apart to start with,and if he has any setback at all,you win hands down
@AL KOHOLIC: Yea if sevy misses significant time over the year i could break even with this trade. Thanks man
@Skip Mcgillicuddy: Agree with Al
Agree with Ta Ta toothy
@frankgrimes</@frankgrimes: The ask the audience life line is pulling thru. Thanks fellas.
@Donkey Teeth: Thanks DT!
I wouldn’t not want Severino
@Grey: So what would you do in my situation Grey?
@Skip Mcgillicuddy: Whoa, I sound like I haven’t had my coffee yet… “I wouldn’t not want Severino” What does that mean, pre-coffee Grey?
Agree with others, I don’t want Severino… I’d take Taillon
@Grey: lmao thanks Dude, gotta get the caffiene fix, i feel you
Honestly I like Tyler White the best out of this group for value. Truth be told, (because this is after all a sharing group, nobody judges another as crazy, they just blink hard and move on) I am fascinated by the story of young Tyler White being raised in the woods by his surrogate father Evan Gattis. Together they chopped down trees, wrestled bears, groomed each others’ beards… until one day (in October 2018) when Papa Gattis realized his time of playing the stickball was over, knees long past expiration date, and moonshots were falling short of the fence; he gave Babe Tyler his blue ox and a healthy headbutt that left Tyler dazed so that all he could see was Papa Gattis’ hairy butt scampering into the woods, long out of reach of Tyler’s sobs. And the moon cried shooting stars upon Babe Tyler’s heartache into and out of his offseason hibernation.
When Babe Tyler awoke in the Spring, he was refreshed and with newfound purpose. Not as tall, as barrel-chested, as hirsute as Papa Gattis, nonetheless he was ready to assume the mantle of bearded misplaced lumberjack. “Are you sure you’re here to play baseball?” – asked the Astros security guard. “Yes, just tell my blue ox to wait over there for me.”
And thus began the story of the next pudgy, streaky-hitting, free-swinging first baseman / DH. Fan favorites, local pizza commercial stars, idols to uncoordinated children……these men thrive for short careers! All hail Babe Tyler!!!
Pick 210+, yea I’ll take him there.
Haha, awesome, Papa Gattis and his hairy butt scampering!
Good morning Grey! I wanted to share with you my pitching staff heading into this season. 12 team, H2H, mixed. 10 keepers. I was going in with Marquez as my only starter. Aside from him, my entire staff is round 11 or later. The rest of my staff:
Happ, Lucchesi, Bieber, Kikuchi, Matz, Gibson
I’m ready to dominate.
Thank you for the advice all offseason. I renewed my subscription too! You and Rudy and the team are a big reason for success and confidence in my leagues.
thx for renewing! a lot of those SPs (other than Marquez) are on my staffs so far. loving the round 9-15 SP values this year
@Rudy Gamble: The only guy I missed out on was Glasnow but i can’t complain with the results.
Nice! Thanks! I like the staff, exactly as it should be
That dbag Flowers was hammering you a bit last night.
Next time ask him what pert leagues has he ever won.
@frankgrimes: Tyler Flowers? Only Flowers I know
Rudy is back to back champ and he questioning his strategy haha
What did he say?
ha. what’d he question?
@Grey: awesome. I was looking to pick up Jansen as my C, but someone took him 2 rounds before I was ready to get him, then Alfaro went 3 picks later! Ended up with Beef *copyright Grey. That was round…19? Sure. I’ll take that value.
Meh, it’s fine, just catchers
Yusei Kikuchi + L. McCullers Jr. FOR K. Maeda + M. Barnes
I have a spot an NA spot for Jr but clould use it down the road for someone else – I think Yusei has the job and Maeda is little risky to keep job Will barnes close
which side ?????????????????????????
thank you your the expect
@MRBASEBALL: Kikuchi for me. Love The Kooch.
As in I’d want Kikuchi
Need to choose keepers today. 12 team mixed. Can keep 4 players forever with no cost associated with them.
Am leaning to the first four but not sure if using a spot on a 36 year old pitcher is the best idea.
@Cliffyw: I’m with you, first four.
Thank you so much for all that you do!!! Fantasy baseball wouldn’t be the same without you.
I’m in a 6×5, h2h, 10 team, ops league. Our keepers are tied to our draft picks. I had all my picks ready to go and just waiting for the draft until someone offered me their Xander for a swap of late round draft picks. The draft picks don’t matter since it’s at the end of the draft, but would you accept and keep Xander at round 4 value and throw back one of my other keepers below? Or would you stand pat and just roll with these 7?
Trout (round 1)
Yelich (round 2)
Goldschmidt (round 5)
Scherzer (round 6)
Ozzie Albies (round 12)
Arenado (round 13)
Acuna (round 24)
If I stand pat options for me to draft at SS who I’m targeting are Mondesi and Peraza.
@Charlie: Stand pat, you’re loaded…
Thanks! Stand pat