Dave Roberts just shuddered when he read the title.  “Listen, Max Muncy was just great, but you don’t want great out there, you want…” Then Dave Roberts ran through a stop sign and took home without a throw, but, that was because he was in his car and no one tries to throw you out when you’re heading to your home in a car.  Dave Roberts then kicked over a pile of leaves, and, when he was obstructed from our view, he rubbed dirt on his jersey, then he smelled his armpits and said, “Hustle,” like he was Molly Shannon saying, “Superstar.”  As of right now, Max Muncy is penciled in as a starter, but where?  1st base?  2nd base?  3rd base?  Outfield?  Who’s on 1st?  What’s on 2nd?  I don’t know!  3rd base?  He played them all last year, so I’m assuming Dave Roberts can have the decency to find 400 ABs for his best hitter last year.  For as late as I’ve been seeing him drafted (as late as 150 overall), if he gets 400 ABs, Muncy is going to blow away anyone drafted around him.  If Roberts has a brain fart, and poofs out something that makes sense, Muncy could sneak into 450+ ABs, and shock the world for the 2nd time in two seasons.  Anyway, what can you expect from Max Muncy for 2019 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

What makes a guy a sleeper fascinates me.  Why are some guys trusted to repeat their breakouts and other guys are not?  Y’all are true believers in Jesus.  Aguilar, that is.  Max Muncy, on the other, more agnostic, hand, is not believed at all.  Listen, I believe in Jesus too.  Praise be.  Aguilar’s numbers were great last year, and I think they can be again.  Muncy’s season came completely out of nowhere, and he lost his starting job in the 2nd half for a time; he’s in a pitchers’ park vs. hitters’ park, and now I’ve talked myself out of Max Muncy too.  Damn.  Let’s pit them against each other, Jesus vs. Max, or Yeezy vs. Air Max, if you’re a sneakerhead.  Late breakouts scare you?  Jesus is two months older than Muncy, both are 28 years old.  Lack of playing time scare you?  Muncy had 35 homers, and Aguilar had 35 homers.  Only Muncy did it in 395 ABs vs. Aguilar’s 492.  If you’re in a daily league, you can move Muncy out of your lineup when he’s not in there.  If splits just bother you, Muncy had 11 points higher average vs. righties.  Aguilar’s average vs. righties was 11 points lower.  There’s more righties than lefties, so you kinda want a guy who’s better vs. righties.  Average home run distance:  Muncy beats Aguilar.  Average exit velocity:  Muncy again.  Muncy barreled up more balls last year (45) vs. Aguilar (41) in almost 100 less at-bats!  Muncy’s OBP .391 vs. Aguilar’s .352.  For guys who saw 350 plate appearances, Muncy had the 5th best walk rate in the major leagues; Aguilar was 75th.  Muncy’s plate discipline is just ridunk, in general.  He had the 8th best Z-Swing% and the 15th best O-Swing%.  In layman’s terms that means, Muncy swung at next to no balls outside the zone, and, when he swung at pitches inside the zone, he only swung at the very best pitches. That’s on par with guys like Joey Votto, Mookie Betts and Matt Carpenter.  Aguilar, as you can imagine, wasn’t close to elite in either category. Muncy had the 9th best Hard Contact percentage, Aguilar was 29th.  You might be thinking, “Okay, cool, man, cool, but I didn’t like Jesus Aguilar either.”  Well, man, I do, and can understand why he’s going around top 70 overall, but what I can’t figure out is why is Max Muncy going almost fifty picks later, or after him at all?  For 2019, I’ll give Max Muncy the projections of 81/33/87/.268/4 in 423 ABs with a chance for much more.

  1. SteveNZ says:
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    This is my fucking outlet :(

  2. Harley Earl says:
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    Great write up Grey!

    I picked up Muncy in late May or early June last year and rode him all season long. Dude showed absolutely no signs of being a fluke to me. He has some of the best plate discipline of any hitter in the majors.

    I can see Roberts making him a super-utility guy. Playing him at 1B-2B-3B depending on righty/lefty pitching matchups, who’s on the DL and who needs a day off. Personally, I think he’ll get 450 ABs and more likely around 500 so long as he stays healthy.

    If Muncy shows the same skill-set next spring/summer that he did last year, Roberts simply will not be able to keep him out of the lineup. He tried like all Hell to get him out of the lineup all of last year and Muncy said “Find someone else to pick on because I’m here to stay Mofo.”

    By the way, speaking of Mofo’s, I have always wanted to open a bar named “Mofo’s” and when people came in the host would greet them by saying “Welcome to Mofo’s where everyone is a Mofo. Later, the waitress would take their order by saying “What will you Mofo’s be having for dinner tonight?” And, later, when she brings them their food or drinks she would say “I hope you Mofo’s enjoy your meal!” And, finally, whenever someone leaves, the host would tell them “Hope to see you Mofos again soon!”

    I could sell T-shirts, hats, bumper stickers, key chains, all kinds of shit with Mofo’s on it. This is my plan once I move to Florida. Also plan to invite Dave Roberts to be my first customer, because he’s the biggest Mofo I know. Hope that Mofo doesn’t screw my boy Muncy around again next season!

    • Dave D says:
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      @Harley Earl:

      And you could erect a statue of Oedipus, the truest of MoFo’s.

    • Cram It says:
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      @Harley Earl: Hate to burst your bubble, but there’s a least one Mofo’s already….a BBQ joint in GA, complete with merchandise…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Harley Earl: No signs of a fluke at all… He’s a bad mofo, even… I’ thinking he could be a top 20 player next year as he shows what he did last year he can do endlessly… Yeah, I think there’s a few Mofo’s in the country… Mofoses? Mofoii? How do you pluralize Mofo’s?

      • Sweatpants Nation says:
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        @Grey: MOFI

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Of course!

          • Sweatpants Nation says:
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            @Grey: MOFO Pizza near Tahoe. I think Harley Earl missed the boat. But don’t miss the ss Muncy!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha, what a MOFO

              • Sweatpants Nation says:
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                @Grey: We live in MOFO times

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Quite the MOFO

                  • Harley Earl says:
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                    @Grey: I feel like a Dumb Mofo!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha

  3. Ante Galic says:
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    Grey!!!!

    What a sleeper report! What a sleeper report! What a sleeper report! What a sleeper report!

    a. Loved Muncy last year so much! Actually dropped him because of the aforementioned situ when Dozier was signed up. I know my bad, still won my RCL so there’s that.

    b. Special addendum to the Mark Twain quote of the day for December 20

    Well, now that The Dude has found the quote and we can all sleep in peace, I still want to give you and our gentle readers one last look at a few quotes and then say goodbye to your friend and mine Mr Mark Twain aka Mr Samuel Langhorne Clemens who was born November 30, 1835 and died April 21, 1910. He authored many books and has been the subject of many biographies. Take the time sometime to read anything he wrote.

    1. …nothing so liberalizes a man and expands the kindly instincts that nature put in him as travel and contact with many kinds of people.

    2. They are a harmless race when white men either let them alone or treat them no worse than dogs; in fact they are almost entirely harmless anyhow, for they seldom think of resenting the vilest insults or the cruelest injuries. They are quiet, peaceable, tractable, free from drunkenness, and they are as industrious as the day is long. A disorderly Chinaman is rare, and a lazy one does not exist.

    3. In the South the war is what AD is elsewhere; they date from it.

    4. A southerner talks music.

    5. Human nature cannot be studied in cities except at a disadvantage–a village is the place. There you can know your man inside and out–in a city you but know his crust; and his crust is usually a lie.

    6. There is a great deal of human nature in people.

    7. Such is human-nature. The man who drinks beer at home always criticizes the champagne, and finds fault with the Burgundy when he is invited out to dinner.

    8. But we are fearfully and wonderfully made, and we glorious Americans will occasionally astonish the God that created us when we get a fair start.

    9. We are called the nation of inventors. And we are. We could still claim that title and wear its loftiest honors if we had stopped with the first thing we ever invented, which was human liberty.

    10. The average American may not know who his grandfather was. But the American was, however, one degree better off than the average Frenchman who, as a rule, was in considerable doubt as to who his father was.

    11. I have learned that there lies dormant in the souls of all men a penchant for some particular musical instrument, and an unsuspected yearning to learn to play on it, that are bound to wake up and demand attention some day. Therefore, you who rail at such as disturb your slumbers with unsuccessful and demoralizing attempts to subjugate a fiddle, beware! for sooner or later your own time will come.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante Galic: A. Nice! B. 6 is great, 10 is hilarious

      • Ante Galic says:
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        @Grey: Grey!!!

        Thanks man!

        I think #1 and #9 are really appropriate for today, giving more force to the idea that his quotes are forever valid. Well, maybe not all the quotes. But he did write what he saw and mostly told the truth. That’s pretty good.

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          It’s a good way to be, indeed!

  4. Chris D says:
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    Not to highjack Mr. Muncy’s post, but I was offered a dynasty trade I feel like I need to accept very quickly

    My Acuna and Jose Leclerc

    For his Mookie

    I have to do this right?

    Not that it makes a difference, but he’s trying to build a next gen team consisting of:

    Vlad
    Acuna
    Soto
    Gleyber
    Robles

    He really wants to over pay for that last piece (Acuna) to make this happen.

    • Chris D says:
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      @Chris D: it’s been revised to Acuna and Forrest Whitley for Mookie and Carlos Rodon

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Chris D: I’d take Mookie

      • Chris D says:
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        @Grey: so we finalized this deal as this

        Acuna
        Forrest Whitley
        Leclerc

        For

        Mookie
        Dylan Cease

        I’m happy I got a good prospect arm back to offset Whitley here. Still like this Grey? (I’m guessing yes lol)

        And thanks as always for your help, especially these giant dynasty deals. Always scared making these big trades

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’d take Betts, yeah

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @jack florida: Is that the league with Donkey Teeth and Brandon?

      • jack florida says:
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        @Grey: i started this, if they are in, i am not aware.
        everyone is welcome,

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ah, cool, gotcha

  5. reese says:
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    trade question….12 team mixed 5×5 roto keeper – should I give Devers to get Robles?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @reese: Works for me

  6. knucks says:
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    Great post. I figured I wasn’t going to be drafting this guy before others in my leagues. ESPN has him at #153 right now on their ranks. Super dumb, but super helpful in a way haha.

    More realistically, NFBC has his ADP at #95 right meow. And as you mention, I see Jesus is currently 20 spots above at #75.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @knucks: Yeah, exactly… I saw ESPN’s too, and I was like, hmm, I kinda see him as a top 60 player

  7. Christian Warne says:
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    Is Muncy worth keeping at $10 as my 5th keeper. Other options are Moncada $17, Castellanos $12 or Villar $10

    • The Dude says:
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      @Christian Warne: Victor Robles isn’t on your radar @ $10?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @The Dude: Robles? Where’s he listed?

        • Christian Warne says:
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          @Grey: The dude is in my fantasy league and knows Robles is also on my team, but I don’t see him worth $10

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Gotcha

            • Christian Warne says:
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              @Grey: So with that then would you say Robles at $10 or Muncy at $10. My other keepers are Freeman, Betts, Taillon, Corbin. Robles would get me more bags, but the Muncy Upside. Both at $10 who do you take?

  8. Dave D says:
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    It seems to me that his NFBC ADP of 97 is about right. Will he outperform that ADP? Perhaps. Some lesser guys are probably going ahead of him. Is he a sleeper? I guess we all have varying definitions. I am admittedly somewhat wary of the guy due to his out-of-nowhere rise, but maybe I just need to get over it. I do like Matt Olson at 108 better, but if Olson goes first I’d possibly be thinking Muncy 110+ or so.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      97 feels late for me, I looked at a bunch of barometers, and I can’t find any reason to get worried about him repeating… If anything, I think he can be better… I keep thinking about a guy who hit something like 20 HRs in a round in the home run derby…. I know it’s an exhibition, but that’s a slugger… You don’t get random guys with multiple position eligibility doing that usually

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        @Grey: Don’t always agree (which is why you usually beat me), but you are right on with this one . All he has to do in order to repeat is get the ABs which I think he will. Likely more. I can see him even in a straight platoon getting over 450. Oh and he might pick up 2nd base eligibility early or even have it already? Yes please.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, and I think he’s got 2B in Yahoo already — started like 13 games at 2B, I think

      • Dave D says:
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        @Grey: Thats a good point. So, you’re saying Cinderfella is real and that he’ll outperform Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart? Hmmm…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha, yeah, I think that’s a fair assumption…

  9. Christian Warne says:
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    @Grey: The dude is in my fantasy league and knows Robles is also on my team, but I don’t see him worth $10

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ah, I see

  10. Rutherford says:
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    Super annoying last year when Roberts would platoon Freese and Muncy because the unbreakable rule in baseball is you HAVE TO hit RHB vs LHP and visa versa.

    Freaking dumb. Muncy was out of this world (vs both LHP and RHP) and his OPS was even better than Freese’s vs LHP (Although Freese’s was still good at .876 vs LHP).

    I’m gonna go to Chavez Ravine with my pitch fork and torch with my most peasant sounding voice yelling “LET MUNCY MASH, LET MUNCY MASH, LET MUNCY MASH!!”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, yup! Maybe I’ll see you there!

    • Dodgerbleu says:
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      @Rutherford: As a Muncy myself (actually spelled Muncie, but peasants don’t know how to spell), I can tell you that I have tried that chant with every girl I’ve ever met, and let me tell you, it’s not as effective as you would think it would be.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Haha

    • Dodgerbleu says:
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      @Rutherford: As a Muncy myself (spelled Muncie, but peasants don’t know how to spell), I have tried that chant with every girl I’ve ever known. And for some reason, it’s not as effective as you might think. But I’m still in.

  11. Yanni says:
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    Grey, big question.

    12 team dynasty league 35 keepers we redraft 5 guys (usually prospects) 7×7 category scoring head to head.

    I have an opportunity to get Aaron Nola and my choice of Kyle Schwarber or jurikson profar for Fernando Tatis Jr. and josh hader.

    What do you think?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Profar will prolly be more valuable, but Schwarber has more upside… Your call, I’d prolly go Nola/Schwarber

  12. Stefe says:
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    Hey grey I have a question.

    I’m in a dynasty league where we keep 35 guys and roster 40. My team is pretty well balanced as you can judge below.

    I have an opportunity to get Aaron Nola and my choice of schwarber or profar for Fernando Tatis Jr. and josh hader. What do you think?

    Gary Sanchez
    Anthony Rizzo
    Cesar Hernandez
    Anthony Rendon
    Manny Machado
    Rhys Hoskins
    A.J. Pollock
    Austin Meadows
    Jose Ramirez
    Mookie Betts
    Nomar Mazara
    Maikel Franco
    Lewis Brinson
    Jesse Winker
    Matt Thaiss
    Luis Robert
    Fernando Tatis Jr.
    Brendan Rodgers
    Brandon Marsh
    Yordan Alvarez
    Tyler O’Neill

    Chris Paddack
    Nick Pivetta
    Jack Flaherty
    Josh Hader
    Craig Kimbrel
    Cody Allen
    Jake Odorizzi
    Jon Lester
    Masahiro Tanaka
    Mike Foltynewicz
    Chris Sale
    Zack Greinke
    Vince Velasquez
    Miles Mikolas
    Julio Urias
    Adrian Morejon
    Sixto Sanchez

    • Stefe says:
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      Also it’s a 12 team league

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Your team is ridiculous… Have you ever lost this league? I’d take Nola/Schwarber

  13. YC says:
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    Hey Grey- ever have a loss that still hurts almost 4 months later? Ugh. I feel like 5th place is almost better than 2nd. And to lose to the one guy in the league you definitely don’t want to lose to, as well. I’d have rather lost to the dude who checked out in May.

    Does Razzball have a fantasy baseball therapy side business?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I have a booth on my front lawn, “Psychiatric Help for 5 cents,” and the doctor is in

      • Dave D says:
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        @Grey:

        I could see you at my practice if you’re in Southeastern Connecticut. I specialize in couples therapy and fantasy related traumatic grief and loss. Several clients of mine drafted Clayton Kershaw and Kris Bryant last year.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          See that, we are connecting the mentally anguished with the anguish relievers

  14. Jon says:
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    Think any of these guys are top 100 guys in 2019? Cano, Matt Chapman, Mikolas?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yup

  15. Dave D says:
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    I like the Cahill signing much better than the Harvey one. Neither is going to help them keep up with Verlander, Cole etc. in Houston though

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agreed, ain’t signing an ace, but it’s better than Harvey

      • Dave D says:
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        @Grey: I think I’d rather have one $20m pitcher than two $10m’s, especially if I make the playoffs.
        #settingthebarlow

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Angels pitching is actually going to be decent, aside from Harvey… Their hitting, on the other hand…

  16. Dervish Finkelblatt says:
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    How do you rank this group for keepability: Muncy (with 2b eligibility) at 8, Gennett at 8, Aguilar at 8, Clevinger at 6, J Turner at 9?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Are these rounds or dollar prices? Go to my newest post…

  17. M says:
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    You like Kluber or both Folty & Odor next year? 6×6 roto obp

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Are you saying trade? I’d want Kluber, but I wouldn’t draft him

      • M says:
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        @Grey: not trade, the option on Kluber or both folty & odor. Yeah I’m not high on Kluber next year

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, answered that, I don’t want Kluber either

  18. Harley Earl says:
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    We are two Mofos in complete agreement on Mr. Muncy. Now if we could just that Mofo Dave Roberts to quit being a Mofo and play that Mofo everything would be fine.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Mofo’ing right!

  19. Crime Dog says:
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    Ugh I hate owning dodgers. I like em all and then I hate them at the same time because of Dave Roberts.

  20. Squidblob says:
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    My brother and I still giggle regularly at the “Max Muncy, which is pretty much as Muncy as you can be” joke.

  21. jake says:
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    With Kemp and Puig now gone does this help Muncy?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      For sure, but the Dodgers are unlikely done

Comments are closed.