Dave Roberts just shuddered when he read the title.  “Listen, Max Muncy was just great, but you don’t want great out there, you want…” Then Dave Roberts ran through a stop sign and took home without a throw, but, that was because he was in his car and no one tries to throw you out when you’re heading to your home in a car.  Dave Roberts then kicked over a pile of leaves, and, when he was obstructed from our view, he rubbed dirt on his jersey, then he smelled his armpits and said, “Hustle,” like he was Molly Shannon saying, “Superstar.”  As of right now, Max Muncy is penciled in as a starter, but where?  1st base?  2nd base?  3rd base?  Outfield?  Who’s on 1st?  What’s on 2nd?  I don’t know!  3rd base?  He played them all last year, so I’m assuming Dave Roberts can have the decency to find 400 ABs for his best hitter last year.  For as late as I’ve been seeing him drafted (as late as 150 overall), if he gets 400 ABs, Muncy is going to blow away anyone drafted around him.  If Roberts has a brain fart, and poofs out something that makes sense, Muncy could sneak into 450+ ABs, and shock the world for the 2nd time in two seasons.  Anyway, what can you expect from Max Muncy for 2019 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

What makes a guy a sleeper fascinates me.  Why are some guys trusted to repeat their breakouts and other guys are not?  Y’all are true believers in Jesus.  Aguilar, that is.  Max Muncy, on the other, more agnostic, hand, is not believed at all.  Listen, I believe in Jesus too.  Praise be.  Aguilar’s numbers were great last year, and I think they can be again.  Muncy’s season came completely out of nowhere, and he lost his starting job in the 2nd half for a time; he’s in a pitchers’ park vs. hitters’ park, and now I’ve talked myself out of Max Muncy too.  Damn.  Let’s pit them against each other, Jesus vs. Max, or Yeezy vs. Air Max, if you’re a sneakerhead.  Late breakouts scare you?  Jesus is two months older than Muncy, both are 28 years old.  Lack of playing time scare you?  Muncy had 35 homers, and Aguilar had 35 homers.  Only Muncy did it in 395 ABs vs. Aguilar’s 492.  If you’re in a daily league, you can move Muncy out of your lineup when he’s not in there.  If splits just bother you, Muncy had 11 points higher average vs. righties.  Aguilar’s average vs. righties was 11 points lower.  There’s more righties than lefties, so you kinda want a guy who’s better vs. righties.  Average home run distance:  Muncy beats Aguilar.  Average exit velocity:  Muncy again.  Muncy barreled up more balls last year (45) vs. Aguilar (41) in almost 100 less at-bats!  Muncy’s OBP .391 vs. Aguilar’s .352.  For guys who saw 350 plate appearances, Muncy had the 5th best walk rate in the major leagues; Aguilar was 75th.  Muncy’s plate discipline is just ridunk, in general.  He had the 8th best Z-Swing% and the 15th best O-Swing%.  In layman’s terms that means, Muncy swung at next to no balls outside the zone, and, when he swung at pitches inside the zone, he only swung at the very best pitches. That’s on par with guys like Joey Votto, Mookie Betts and Matt Carpenter.  Aguilar, as you can imagine, wasn’t close to elite in either category. Muncy had the 9th best Hard Contact percentage, Aguilar was 29th.  You might be thinking, “Okay, cool, man, cool, but I didn’t like Jesus Aguilar either.”  Well, man, I do, and can understand why he’s going around top 70 overall, but what I can’t figure out is why is Max Muncy going almost fifty picks later, or after him at all?  For 2019, I’ll give Max Muncy the projections of 81/33/87/.268/4 in 423 ABs with a chance for much more.

84 Comments
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jake
jake
3 years ago

With Kemp and Puig now gone does this help Muncy?

Squidblob
Squidblob
3 years ago

My brother and I still giggle regularly at the “Max Muncy, which is pretty much as Muncy as you can be” joke.

Crime Dog
Crime Dog
3 years ago

Ugh I hate owning dodgers. I like em all and then I hate them at the same time because of Dave Roberts.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
3 years ago

We are two Mofos in complete agreement on Mr. Muncy. Now if we could just that Mofo Dave Roberts to quit being a Mofo and play that Mofo everything would be fine.

M
M
3 years ago

You like Kluber or both Folty & Odor next year? 6×6 roto obp

M
M
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: not trade, the option on Kluber or both folty & odor. Yeah I’m not high on Kluber next year

Dervish Finkelblatt
Dervish Finkelblatt
3 years ago

How do you rank this group for keepability: Muncy (with 2b eligibility) at 8, Gennett at 8, Aguilar at 8, Clevinger at 6, J Turner at 9?

Dave D
Dave D
3 years ago

I like the Cahill signing much better than the Harvey one. Neither is going to help them keep up with Verlander, Cole etc. in Houston though

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I think I’d rather have one $20m pitcher than two $10m’s, especially if I make the playoffs.
#settingthebarlow

Jon
Jon
3 years ago

Think any of these guys are top 100 guys in 2019? Cano, Matt Chapman, Mikolas?

YC
YC
3 years ago

Hey Grey- ever have a loss that still hurts almost 4 months later? Ugh. I feel like 5th place is almost better than 2nd. And to lose to the one guy in the league you definitely don’t want to lose to, as well. I’d have rather lost to the dude who checked out in May.

Does Razzball have a fantasy baseball therapy side business?

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

I could see you at my practice if you’re in Southeastern Connecticut. I specialize in couples therapy and fantasy related traumatic grief and loss. Several clients of mine drafted Clayton Kershaw and Kris Bryant last year.

Stefe
Stefe
3 years ago

Hey grey I have a question.

I’m in a dynasty league where we keep 35 guys and roster 40. My team is pretty well balanced as you can judge below.

I have an opportunity to get Aaron Nola and my choice of schwarber or profar for Fernando Tatis Jr. and josh hader. What do you think?

Gary Sanchez
Anthony Rizzo
Cesar Hernandez
Anthony Rendon
Manny Machado
Rhys Hoskins
A.J. Pollock
Austin Meadows
Jose Ramirez
Mookie Betts
Nomar Mazara
Maikel Franco
Lewis Brinson
Jesse Winker
Matt Thaiss
Luis Robert
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Brendan Rodgers
Brandon Marsh
Yordan Alvarez
Tyler O’Neill

Chris Paddack
Nick Pivetta
Jack Flaherty
Josh Hader
Craig Kimbrel
Cody Allen
Jake Odorizzi
Jon Lester
Masahiro Tanaka
Mike Foltynewicz
Chris Sale
Zack Greinke
Vince Velasquez
Miles Mikolas
Julio Urias
Adrian Morejon
Sixto Sanchez

Stefe
Stefe
Reply to  Stefe
3 years ago

Also it’s a 12 team league

Yanni
Yanni
3 years ago

Grey, big question.

12 team dynasty league 35 keepers we redraft 5 guys (usually prospects) 7×7 category scoring head to head.

I have an opportunity to get Aaron Nola and my choice of Kyle Schwarber or jurikson profar for Fernando Tatis Jr. and josh hader.

What do you think?

Rutherford
Rutherford
3 years ago

Super annoying last year when Roberts would platoon Freese and Muncy because the unbreakable rule in baseball is you HAVE TO hit RHB vs LHP and visa versa.

Freaking dumb. Muncy was out of this world (vs both LHP and RHP) and his OPS was even better than Freese’s vs LHP (Although Freese’s was still good at .876 vs LHP).

I’m gonna go to Chavez Ravine with my pitch fork and torch with my most peasant sounding voice yelling “LET MUNCY MASH, LET MUNCY MASH, LET MUNCY MASH!!”

Dodgerbleu
Dodgerbleu
Reply to  Rutherford
3 years ago

@Rutherford: As a Muncy myself (actually spelled Muncie, but peasants don’t know how to spell), I can tell you that I have tried that chant with every girl I’ve ever met, and let me tell you, it’s not as effective as you would think it would be.

Dodgerbleu
Dodgerbleu
Reply to  Rutherford
3 years ago

@Rutherford: As a Muncy myself (spelled Muncie, but peasants don’t know how to spell), I have tried that chant with every girl I’ve ever known. And for some reason, it’s not as effective as you might think. But I’m still in.

Christian Warne
Christian Warne
3 years ago

@Grey: The dude is in my fantasy league and knows Robles is also on my team, but I don’t see him worth $10

Dave D
Dave D
3 years ago

It seems to me that his NFBC ADP of 97 is about right. Will he outperform that ADP? Perhaps. Some lesser guys are probably going ahead of him. Is he a sleeper? I guess we all have varying definitions. I am admittedly somewhat wary of the guy due to his out-of-nowhere rise, but maybe I just need to get over it. I do like Matt Olson at 108 better, but if Olson goes first I’d possibly be thinking Muncy 110+ or so.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Don’t always agree (which is why you usually beat me), but you are right on with this one . All he has to do in order to repeat is get the ABs which I think he will. Likely more. I can see him even in a straight platoon getting over 450. Oh and he might pick up 2nd base eligibility early or even have it already? Yes please.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Thats a good point. So, you’re saying Cinderfella is real and that he’ll outperform Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart? Hmmm…

Christian Warne
Christian Warne
3 years ago

Is Muncy worth keeping at $10 as my 5th keeper. Other options are Moncada $17, Castellanos $12 or Villar $10

The Dude
The Dude
Reply to  Christian Warne
3 years ago

@Christian Warne: Victor Robles isn’t on your radar @ $10?

Christian Warne
Christian Warne
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: The dude is in my fantasy league and knows Robles is also on my team, but I don’t see him worth $10

Christian Warne
Christian Warne
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: So with that then would you say Robles at $10 or Muncy at $10. My other keepers are Freeman, Betts, Taillon, Corbin. Robles would get me more bags, but the Muncy Upside. Both at $10 who do you take?

The Dude
The Dude
Reply to  Christian Warne
3 years ago

@Grey: You’re welcome…@Christian Warne: You’re welcome…

The Dude
The Dude
Reply to  The Dude
3 years ago

@The Dude: stupid comment code gibberish!

knucks
knucks
3 years ago

Great post. I figured I wasn’t going to be drafting this guy before others in my leagues. ESPN has him at #153 right now on their ranks. Super dumb, but super helpful in a way haha.

More realistically, NFBC has his ADP at #95 right meow. And as you mention, I see Jesus is currently 20 spots above at #75.

reese
reese
3 years ago

trade question….12 team mixed 5×5 roto keeper – should I give Devers to get Robles?

Chris D
Chris D
3 years ago

Not to highjack Mr. Muncy’s post, but I was offered a dynasty trade I feel like I need to accept very quickly

My Acuna and Jose Leclerc

For his Mookie

I have to do this right?

Not that it makes a difference, but he’s trying to build a next gen team consisting of:

Vlad
Acuna
Soto
Gleyber
Robles

He really wants to over pay for that last piece (Acuna) to make this happen.

Chris D
Chris D
Reply to  Chris D
3 years ago

@Chris D: it’s been revised to Acuna and Forrest Whitley for Mookie and Carlos Rodon

Chris D
Chris D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: so we finalized this deal as this

Acuna
Forrest Whitley
Leclerc

For

Mookie
Dylan Cease

I’m happy I got a good prospect arm back to offset Whitley here. Still like this Grey? (I’m guessing yes lol)

And thanks as always for your help, especially these giant dynasty deals. Always scared making these big trades

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
3 years ago

Grey!!!!

What a sleeper report! What a sleeper report! What a sleeper report! What a sleeper report!

a. Loved Muncy last year so much! Actually dropped him because of the aforementioned situ when Dozier was signed up. I know my bad, still won my RCL so there’s that.

b. Special addendum to the Mark Twain quote of the day for December 20

Well, now that The Dude has found the quote and we can all sleep in peace, I still want to give you and our gentle readers one last look at a few quotes and then say goodbye to your friend and mine Mr Mark Twain aka Mr Samuel Langhorne Clemens who was born November 30, 1835 and died April 21, 1910. He authored many books and has been the subject of many biographies. Take the time sometime to read anything he wrote.

1. …nothing so liberalizes a man and expands the kindly instincts that nature put in him as travel and contact with many kinds of people.

2. They are a harmless race when white men either let them alone or treat them no worse than dogs; in fact they are almost entirely harmless anyhow, for they seldom think of resenting the vilest insults or the cruelest injuries. They are quiet, peaceable, tractable, free from drunkenness, and they are as industrious as the day is long. A disorderly Chinaman is rare, and a lazy one does not exist.

3. In the South the war is what AD is elsewhere; they date from it.

4. A southerner talks music.

5. Human nature cannot be studied in cities except at a disadvantage–a village is the place. There you can know your man inside and out–in a city you but know his crust; and his crust is usually a lie.

6. There is a great deal of human nature in people.

7. Such is human-nature. The man who drinks beer at home always criticizes the champagne, and finds fault with the Burgundy when he is invited out to dinner.

8. But we are fearfully and wonderfully made, and we glorious Americans will occasionally astonish the God that created us when we get a fair start.

9. We are called the nation of inventors. And we are. We could still claim that title and wear its loftiest honors if we had stopped with the first thing we ever invented, which was human liberty.

10. The average American may not know who his grandfather was. But the American was, however, one degree better off than the average Frenchman who, as a rule, was in considerable doubt as to who his father was.

11. I have learned that there lies dormant in the souls of all men a penchant for some particular musical instrument, and an unsuspected yearning to learn to play on it, that are bound to wake up and demand attention some day. Therefore, you who rail at such as disturb your slumbers with unsuccessful and demoralizing attempts to subjugate a fiddle, beware! for sooner or later your own time will come.

Cheers,
Ante

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Grey!!!

Thanks man!

I think #1 and #9 are really appropriate for today, giving more force to the idea that his quotes are forever valid. Well, maybe not all the quotes. But he did write what he saw and mostly told the truth. That’s pretty good.

Cheers,
Ante

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
3 years ago

Great write up Grey!

I picked up Muncy in late May or early June last year and rode him all season long. Dude showed absolutely no signs of being a fluke to me. He has some of the best plate discipline of any hitter in the majors.

I can see Roberts making him a super-utility guy. Playing him at 1B-2B-3B depending on righty/lefty pitching matchups, who’s on the DL and who needs a day off. Personally, I think he’ll get 450 ABs and more likely around 500 so long as he stays healthy.

If Muncy shows the same skill-set next spring/summer that he did last year, Roberts simply will not be able to keep him out of the lineup. He tried like all Hell to get him out of the lineup all of last year and Muncy said “Find someone else to pick on because I’m here to stay Mofo.”

By the way, speaking of Mofo’s, I have always wanted to open a bar named “Mofo’s” and when people came in the host would greet them by saying “Welcome to Mofo’s where everyone is a Mofo. Later, the waitress would take their order by saying “What will you Mofo’s be having for dinner tonight?” And, later, when she brings them their food or drinks she would say “I hope you Mofo’s enjoy your meal!” And, finally, whenever someone leaves, the host would tell them “Hope to see you Mofos again soon!”

I could sell T-shirts, hats, bumper stickers, key chains, all kinds of shit with Mofo’s on it. This is my plan once I move to Florida. Also plan to invite Dave Roberts to be my first customer, because he’s the biggest Mofo I know. Hope that Mofo doesn’t screw my boy Muncy around again next season!

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Harley Earl
3 years ago

@Harley Earl:

And you could erect a statue of Oedipus, the truest of MoFo’s.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Harley Earl
3 years ago

@Harley Earl: Hate to burst your bubble, but there’s a least one Mofo’s already….a BBQ joint in GA, complete with merchandise…

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: MOFI

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: MOFO Pizza near Tahoe. I think Harley Earl missed the boat. But don’t miss the ss Muncy!

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: We live in MOFO times

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I feel like a Dumb Mofo!

SteveNZ
SteveNZ
3 years ago

This is my fucking outlet :(