Fantasy Baseball Advice

He almost lost the job last April. If you can find an owner willing to trade you Troy Tulowitzki for Jeter or Torii Hunter or Carlos Guillen, I’d do it.  I think the Polish have a rite of passion that they have to wear socks with their flip-flops for at least ten years of their life. I had a Polish friend growing up that would delivery newspapers in flip-flops and socks. You know what flip-flops and socks does for you? Makes you look ridiculous, so you know when you’re working it’s not a fashion show. It’s work, dammit. Tulowitzki probably hits the treadmill in flip-flops and socks. Cause baseball is work, dammit. And Tulo takes it seriously. I believe Tulo was genuinely upset with his slump. Do I think he’s out of the woods completely? Nah, probably not. But by the end of May, this slump will be a distant memory. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Matt Diaz – (using my big boy voice) Another home run! (using my little boy voice) Against a lefty.

Matt Stairs – Staying with the Matt theme, he can hit 25 home runs.

Alexis Rios – Two days off with the flu. *writing on pink construction paper* Get well soon, Alexis! (Hopefully he wasn’t kissing Casey “I Had the Kissing Disease for Two Years” Kotchman.)

Edwin Encarnacion – Supposedly he’s only owned in 50% of ESPN leagues. So if I can infer something from that, 50% of ESPN’ers draft their team then abandon them. Another reason why you shouldn’t join a random ESPN league. Maybe ESPN shouldn’t be broadcasting these things. Then again they have given Chris Berman a platform for 30 years, so they’ve obviously made some missteps.

Manny Corpas – Looks like Fuentes will be closing a game by this time next week. I don’t think this is the last we’ve seen of Corpas, but he needs to get away from the closer job for a little bit, maybe spend some time with his family, volunteer at the local nursing home and remember why he started playing this game in the first place, or whatever closers do when they lose their job. He’s a righty and will be in the mix again soon. Remember before you drop him, there’s still over five months left of the season.

Alberto Callaspo – Ye of a .348 average in 23 at-bats was about to get the start because of Grudzielanek’s back soreness, but the game was rained out. Maybe Callaspo can get someone to Tony Harding Grud’s knee.

Carlos Quentin – Hit another home run. Sure, it was off a tired Moose, but whatever, that shizz counts too.

Josh Hamilton – Has 21 RBIs. I’m admittedly a fan, but before we start giving each other reach arounds, we have to remember he’s a bit of health risk.

Daniel Cabrera – Pitched a solid game. Most impressive thing, zero walks. Then again, he was facing the Mariners.

Krispie Young – 0-for-5 with four Ks. You have to expect this if you have him on a team.

Troy Glaus – He’s looked surprisingly okay. Still wouldn’t touch him. (BTW, LaRussa has now pinch hit Wainwright in two straight games. Looks like someone’s hitting the hooch again. Take away his keys, Duncan.)

News starts to trickle out that it’s more than an ankle sprain for Jimmy Rollins. It looks like Rollins has a broken ankle. If only he had wrapped that Ace bandage around his ankle as tight as he braids his hair. If this news turns out to be true, I’d say you have two options: trade him ASAP or put him on your DL for at least a month. I think you’re better off grabbing a shortstop (try Eric Brunlett on for size) and putting J-Roll on your DL. Before you jump off the Tappan-Zee, I had Chase Utley in a very important league last year. I grabbed Iguchi when Utley was hurt and won the league. Was Iguchi as good as Chase? What, are you drinking at 6 o’clock on a Wednesday? No, of course he wasn’t. And Brunlett will not be as good as Rollins, but he should get a handful of stats to ease the pain of the Rollins loss.

BTW, I should specify this was nothing but internet rumor when I wrote it. And for tiers of truth, internet rumor ranks just below the ‘Nam story your crazy uncle keeps telling you.

JJ Putz returns from the DL. Too bad because the Rowland-O’Flaherty-Green-Lowe-Crap-Smith-Whatever were like the Murderer’s Row of setup men. Really holding down the fort. Too bad The Big Sexy can’t pitch like he strikes out, he could’ve lent a hand there. Anyway, I told you to drop all of these schmohawks a couple of days ago, I will second that emotion today. Don’t handcuff your Putz to anything. It’s way too painful. In other closer news, Chad Cordero is going to get his shoulder examined. When a closer goes on the DL because of arm trouble, then returns, but can’t throw only to have his shoulder examined again two weeks later, it’s not good news. By the time you read this, he might already be on the DL. I think Rauch gets more saves than Cordero this year, so if you have Cordero, prepare to cry. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

John Lannan – Is this guy for real? His minor league numbers say he’s only starting in the majors because he’s on the Nationals. In three minor league seasons, he had 229 Ks to 127 walks in 326 innings. That, folks, are pretty bad numbers. So is he for real? I wouldn’t start him against the Cubs for his next start.

Jerry Hairston – He keeps hitting like he did yesterday, Corey Patterson might be on the bench for a while. Dusty, I thought you liked Corey… Wha’ happen? (Oh, and for the first comment, “Grey, should I pick up Hairston?” No, I would not.)

Manny Parra – If you’re looking at a 2.20 WHIP and asking how he only gave up only three runs, let me explain. He was lucky he only gave up 3 runs. Duncan hit a liner to Fielder to get him out of the fifth. That liner would’ve easily scored one more run and who knows what that would’ve led to. Manny hasn’t looked in command of his pitches for a couple starts now.

Eric Gagne – I’m far from a Gagne-apologist, but the blown save shouldn’t have been blown. Weeks threw a ball in the dirt and Fielder couldn’t get his big veggie mitts on it so the tying run scored — costing Parra the win.

Casey Kotchman – Hit his fifth homer. I’ve liked Kotchman for two years while he battled the world’s most drawn out case of mono and, of course, the year I don’t have him on one team, he’s doing well. Here’s hoping he catches a common cold and he’s bedridden for four years because of it.

Edinson Volquez – Or should I say Edison or perhaps Julio Reyes (Volquez has gone through three names in his short career.) He looked decent, if not a little wild. If we can get a game like last night from him seven out of ten times, gonna have to take it.

Juan Pierre – The ironic thing (not ironic ironic, but more ironic like “…rain on your wedding day” ironic… Well, now that I think about it, this actually might really be ironic, not Alanis ironic. Anyway…) Juan Pierre is just as bad as Andruw Jones, only a completely different type of bad. What a mess. (BTW, sample Dodgers’ clubhouse conversation — Torre, “Cashman, I got Nomar batting third. I need some free agent bats!”  Cashman replies, “I’m no longer your GM.”  Torre, “Fine! I’ll call George.”)

Adam Dunn – Went deep. Could have five home runs by this time next week. Don’t sleep on Dunn! (Actually you could sleep on him because he’s big and fat and kinda looks like a walking curly-haired mattress. He’s country comfortable!)

Brandon Phillips – Someone I thought would not be good this year so far has lived up down to expectations. But he did homer last night. (BTW, don’t you love strikethroughs, they’re soooooo snarky! It’s also snarky when you put six ohs on the word “so.” Or soooooo I’ve heard. Actually that so doesn’t make sense to have six ohs. Soooooo Taguchi.)

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu went 3 for 5 with 3 runs and 3 RBIs. But, then again, everyone got a hit in this game, except for Pronk. What the eff, Project-Donkey?

C.C. Sabathia – The news of his demise was prematurely reported (or whatever that pithy thing is people say.)

Miguel Tejada – I thought The Player Formerly Aged 31 would be great this year. He’s playing even better than I thought he would be.

Joey Votto – If I could go back and change my ROY prediction, I’d pick Votto. He’ll go through slumps, like anyone, but he looks like a home run-hitting Billy Butler.

Matt Holliday – When he’s swinging the bat, it looks like he’s thinking this, “Of course I’m going to hit a double. Might even be a home run.”

Jayson Nix – To make himself feel better about being benched for Barmes, he checks into the Colorado Marriott and calls Corey Patterson and Rich Aurilla to find out if they get to listen to their iPod during the game. When Nix finds out they do not, he silently fist pumps.

Troy Tulowitzski – Had the night off, probably to clear his head. This is a great buying opportunity. Find the Tulo owner in your league and trade for him.

Manny Corpas – I have Fuentes on a few teams. Cust kayin’.

Ronny Cedeno – I had him active for that grand slam yesterday… on my Razzball team. I was grand slammed. Oh, and I got a home run from Geoff Blum. Yes, the Geoff Blum that you thought retired two years ago.

Gil Meche – Looks like he let Karabell’s praise go to his head.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

First up are the second basemen inductees.

Enshrining the correct second basemen into the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame is perhaps the most difficult set of selections we’ll have to make. As a general rule of thumb, any player that accumulates 65 or more FBHOF points is virtually guaranteed to be inducted. Think of it this way – any player who averages 13 points during their peak fives seasons is elected. Alternatively, if the peak score averages is less, the player can still be elected if they accumulate a large number of “fantasy worthy” seasons, each of which provides a 1% bonus to the core score.

Only two second basemen have accumulated the magical 65 since 1980 – Ryne Sandberg and Roberto Alomar. Craig Biggio comes awfully close at 64.6, followed by Alfonso Soriano at 61.2 before it drops off precipitously after that. Is that it? Can that be all of the great second basemen over the past 27 years?

Jeff Kent comes to mind, but he only finished as the best second bagger once, in 2000 when he hit 33 HR, drove in 125, and batted .334. He recorded three other Top-2 finishes but one of those years was 2004 when he batted .289, with 27 HR, 96 R, and 107 RBI. Good numbers for sure, but is that worthy of hall induction as a 4th best year? I decided that it did not and his FBHOF score of 8.7 that year back this up. He was good for a middle infielder, but the middle infield crop was weak as a whole, lessening the accomplishment.

Julio Franco scores relatively high as well, almost entirely due to his 1988 and 1991 campaigns where he finished 1st among his peers. His peak value is ruined though, since as his 5th best season was 1997 when he had an unspectacular finish of 18th at second, and worse yet, 167th overall.

Last one before getting back to the Hall of Famers. Chuck Knoblauch is also on the bubble, finishing as a top-4 second basemen four times, and placed 6th an additional two. That is a solid 6 season stretch, one in which he averaged 9.3 FBHOF per season, which is within the range of possibility’s for election when considered longevity. But Knoblauch was finished in 2001 and out of baseball after the 2002 season, before he turned 34.

Sandberg was the no-brainer choice for induction. His FBHOF score is best of any second basement, and best of any middle infielder not nicknamed A-Rod. Ditto his Peak Score, and his Career Total tops all second basemen as well. “Ryno” is simply the best fantasy second basemen we’ve seen. The life-long Cub batted 2nd or 3rd throughout most of his career, recording power and speed numbers not common for any infield position, let alone second base. He has six seasons of 25+ home runs under his belt and seven seasons of 25+ stolen bases. Additionally, Sandberg scored 100 or more runs seven times and reached the 80 RBI milestone six times, achieving 100 on the nose twice.

1985 and 1990 where his top two seasons, with the latter being the best ever for a second basemen; ’85 was great as well, registering as the 3rd best ever:

1990 – .306 AVG, 116 R, 40 HR, 100 RBI, 25 SB
1985 – .305 AVG, 113 R, 26 HR, 83 RBI, 54 SB

Finally, it also needs to be pointed out that he finished best at his position 5 times and in the top-5 and additional seven times, giving him 12 very good seasons. In fact, in only the strike shortened 1994 season did he fail to be considered a fantasy worthy second basemen.

Next up is Alomar who was an all around great player for many, many years. Getting the specifics out of the way – among second basemen, he’s second to Sandberg in FBHOF Points, Peak Score, and Career Score. He does top Sandberg in one area though – his seven seasons of scoring at least 10.0 FBHOF points is best in class. Additionally, he’s recorded the 4th and 5th best seasons ever at the position.

What kind of a fantasy player was Alomar? He is the prototype for owners looking for it all: 11 seasons of batting .295 or higher, 9 seasons of double digit home runs, he scored 100 or more runs 6 times (and reached 80 another 5), had five 90+ RBI campaigns, and stole at least 20 bases in 10 different seasons (swiping 49+ on three occasions).

This certainly sounds as if Alomar was perhaps a bit better than Sandberg, but we need to adjust for context. Sandberg’s numbers made him 1st overall (not just for second base) two times (1984, 1990) and he also ranked 3rd overall in 1985. Alomar never finished first and has only one top-5 finish in his career, a truly wonderful 1993 season that saw him place 2nd overall (.326 AVG, 109 R, 17 HR, 93 RBI, 55 SB).

Our last inductee is Biggio, who also recorded several good seasons as a catcher, which counts towards his totals listed here. Consider second base his primary position, but players are elected on their overall value. Biggio finished the best at his position three times (more than Alomar, less than Sandberg). He also has two seconds – one of them behind the plate.

The problem, if you can call it a problem and have him still enshrined, is that he is one season short of a clear cut induction. His top FBHOF scores: 13.2, 13.1, 13.1, 10.2, 8.1. That last is short of almost all other inductees and is dragged down by the fact it was when he was catching. His 1989 season was great for a catcher of the time (12.9 FBHOF points when looking solely among catchers) but overall that equated to under 5 straight-up points, which hurts.

Still, when the core metric is peak 5-year value it is hard not to elect someone whose top finishes look like this:

1st
1st
1st
2nd
2nd
3rd
3rd

Though his FBHOF score was 64.6, I felt the finishes listed above were enough to justify inclusion. He’s in.

Leaving in Biggio means of course, that Soriano is on the outside looking in. This was a difficult decision, one exacerbated by the fact it leaves us with just three hall of fame second basemen – still hard to fathom in a 27 year period.

In all likelihood Soriano will be elected in years to come as he increases his eligible seasons beyond the eight he currently sits with. Granted, once he plays more games as an outfielder his competition becomes much greater, but his core years of 2002 (15.4 pts), 2003 (13.4 points), and 2006 (12.5 points) are a great stepping stone. As soon as his 5th best year (35th overall finish, 8.6 pts in 2007) is pushed down the ladder, replaced by a more prolific one, he’ll likely be enshrined immediately after the season.

The Giants report John Bowker will steal time away Randy Winn. Might take a bulk of the at-bats at first away from Aurilla. This is terrific news for Bowker and the Giants. But for you the fantasy baseball player, I say, “Eh.” Bowker’s minor league stats show a guy who struck out a lot, didn’t walk too much and is being slightly rushed. Could he be a surprise feel-good story for the Giants and fantasy owners? Maybe, but very doubtful. In his last full season of minor league ball (at AA), he went 79/.307/22/90 with 103 strikeouts and 44 walks in 522 at-bats. Decent enough numbers, but this season he should be in Triple A showing that his Double A numbers aren’t a fluke. If I have an empty bench slot, I’d grab a middle reliever before I went anywhere near John Bowker. If you’re in dire need of an outfielder, go Bowkers! But Bowker might be back in the minors in a month.

Andruw Jones – He was batting eighth. If you have him, unfurl your contingency plans — stat.

Corey Patterson – He went into a slide, now he’s not even playing against righties. Not good, friend. Not good at all.

Xavier Nady – Now batting .347 with 17 RBIs. I told you three weeks ago, you never know where hot streaks are going to come from or for how long they’re going to last. Cust kayin’.

Matt Murton – He was called up and benched. Hope he enjoyed sex with Piniella’s wife or whatever it was that put him in the perennial doghouse.

Matt Diaz – He’s sitting against righties again. This could continue indefinitely. It’s much worse than Kelly Johnson sitting against lefties because of the sheer number of righty pitchers.

John Maine – Looked good. Think he can get much better.

Tim Hudson – Don’t take this wrong way, I like him, but he didn’t look that good yesterday. Lots of balls hit hard.

Calos Villanueva – Other than some early inning wildness, he looked decent. Would’ve liked to have seen more Ks, but still a good start.

Mark Reynolds – Why anyone is throwing him fastballs is behind me, but he went deep again. Fingercuffing sucks.

Armando Galarraga – All he does is win! I wouldn’t pick him up. If you can not look good pitching 5 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball, he did it.

Eugenio Velez – On every other team, he’d be in the minors or a pinch runner.

Joba Chamberlain – Hank Steinbrenner said only “an idiot” would keep Joba as a setup man. Cashman and Girardi said they’re idiots then. Good to see no matter what Stein is behind the wheel, same nonsense.

Adam Wainwright – If I were the type to boost my preseason predictions after three weeks, I would boost his.

Michael Bourn – He already has 13 steals. Could he get 70 steals? Yup. In December of ’07, I said to draft Bourn not only because of the steals, but “…Baseball America pointed out (Bourn) as having the “Best Strike Zone Discipline.” Okay, not exactly Best Newcomer at the AVN Awards, but strike zone discipline is not a bad thing to have for a leadoff man. I’m talking to you, Granderson.” And that’s me quoting me.