All the final 2023 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters are done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball. This is NOT for next year (caps for those who can’t read titles; supposedly it’s easier to read caps, I have my doubts). This is a recap. Will these affect next year’s rankings? Sure. Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t know. Not entirely. Yes, entirely. Like when you had a knee replacement, this is a recap! To recapitulate the recap, these rankings are from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. We’re (me’re) using it to fairly gauge our (my) preseason rankings. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Spencer Strider – This is crazy anecdotal, but scientific fact is for nerds! I drafted Strider in one league, where he fell to me, and it didn’t help my team. Well, it helped my pitching, but my hitting was incredibly awful. Because it was Yahoo, and I can’t seem to open the standings page anymore, you’ll have to take my word for it. I was something like 75 HRs off the leader. That meant bad in RBIs and runs and, well, it was a mess. Would Matt Olson had helped to draft there instead of Strider? Absolutely. Sorry, I know it’s a broken record at this point. but you’ll see this top 20 starters (and eventually 40), and you could find so much pitching later that it’s really silly to draft pitching high. I don’t dislike top pitching, I just think it can be had later, and the end of the year rankings show that. Continued in next blurb. Preseason Rank #7, 2023 Projections: 12-7/2.83/1.03/231 in 164 IP, Final Numbers: 20-5/3.86/1.09/281 in 186 2/3 IP
2. Gerrit Cole – It’s a little silly talking about how unpredictable pitching is when you see Strider and Cole at the top here, but you don’t need the top two starters. You need a top 20 starter or two, and you can get three to five of them, if you draft well. No other position that I’ve recapped is like this. You could’ve drafted the next five starters — from Snell to Gausman. Not one, but all five. If you missed one of those, you could’ve drafted three to five of the five starters after that. I’m not just using hindsight here. Check the ADPs. Maybe you couldn’t have had Gausman and Castillo, without hurting your hitting (you would’ve needed to draft two starters in back to back rounds), so, sure, draft Snell, Gallen, Eflin and only Wheeler. That was possible. Or Steele, Snell, Gallen and Eflin. Oh, shucks, only four! If you wanted Senga, Gilbert, Bassitt, Webb and Eflin? It was possible. If you can’t look at this top 20 and see how easy it would’ve been to dominate pitching without drafting a top starter, then I don’t know what else to tell you. But continued into next blurb anyway. Preseason Rank #2, 2023 Projections: 15-4/2.88/0.99/261 in 202 IP, Final Numbers: 15-4/2.63/0.98/222 in 209 IP
3. Blake Snell – But what about the Manoah drafters, they say! But how about the Lance Lynn drafters, they shout! But how about Grayson Rodriguez, Gavin Stone, fill-in starter who sucked. Or, in Grayson’s case, sucked for long enough to drop. Fair, so exactly, you do that. You drop them. In my RCL league, my 1st starter was Yu Darvish. He sucked. And I came within “better win luck” of winning that league with a 10 in both WHIP and ERA, and an 11 in Ks. My third pitcher drafted was Hunter Greene, who was also useless. How did I do so well? Streamonator and I picked up pitchers off waivers. Continued in next blurb. Preseason Rank #30, 2023 Projections: 10-7/3.79/1.24/166 in 127 IP, Final Numbers: 14-9/2.25/1.19/234 in 180 IP
4. Zac Gallen – I had Sonny Gray for 175 IP; Framber for 198 IP; Yu for 125 IP; Hunter Greene for 88 IP and no other starter for more than 57 (Gavin Williams was who I had for 57 IP, getting him off waivers). Somehow I still managed to almost win the league with bad Win luck as my downfall. In that league, Son drafted Burnes, Scherzer, Verlander and Gausman in the 2nd thru 5th round. I finished with 31 points in WHIP, ERA and Ks; he finished with 30, because: Why? Any guesses? It’s because as I keep saying year after year, you don’t need to turn your ERA and WHIP up to 13 in a 12-team league. If you win ERA with a 3.52 ERA, it’s as good as winning with a 3.31 ERA? No. It’s actually much better to barely win it. Getting a way better pitching staff than every other team means you have deficiencies elsewhere. Son finished with almost 50 fewer homers than me. Continued in next blurb. Preseason Rank #22, 2023 Projections: 12-8/3.24/1.02/192 in 181 IP, Final Numbers: 17-9/3.47/1.12/220 in 210 IP
5. Zach Eflin – This shizz is fascinating to me. This is game theory. That’s all I have to say on it. Okay, one more thing! Look at the preseason rankings for the starters here. They’re all over the place! That’s exactly right! It’s not me messing up, it’s starters are unpredictable! Speaking on Eflin, Coolwhip gave you an Eflin sleeper in the preseason, and I liked him. Eflin, not Whip. Kidding! I like Whip too. Eflin proved the point, seriously consider drafting all starters who the Rays want in their rotation. Preseason Rank #63, 2023 Projections: 8-7/3.71/1.14/118 in 138 IP, Final Numbers: 16-8/3.50/1.02/186 in 177 2/3 IP
6. Luis Castillo – Crap, okay, a little more about the state of starters, in general. People look at this and think, “Well, yeah, Castillo’s an ace.” People were 1,000,000% not saying that in the preseason. I drafted Castillo in leagues! I wait until pick 45, at least, and don’t spend more than $30 in auctions. That’s some revisionist history shizz from people saying Castillo was an ace. Yes, he is an ace, but people would say nonsense in the preseason like, “You drafted Castillo as your ace. That sucks, he’s not an ace. He’s a number two. Handsome face, though.” Preseason Rank #12, 2023 Projections: 14-7/2.94/1.10/203 in 186 IP, Final Numbers: 14-9/3.34/1.10/219 in 197 IP
7. Kevin Gausman – All right, final big picture thing to say! I’m serious now, this is it! I nearly nailed my Gausman, Castillo and Gallen projections, and you could’ve drafted all three of them on the same team (Gausman and Castillo would’ve been difficult, but possible, depending on the league — they were going near each other), but say you got two of the three, look at their projections vs. end of the year stats! This goes back to what I was saying early, how much pitching do you think you need? You needed one of these guys, and could’ve had two or three of them. Preseason Rank #13, 2023 Projections: 14-6/2.94/1.09/214 in 188 IP, Final Numbers: 12-9/3.16/1.18/237 in 185 IP
8. Zack Wheeler – What’s interesting about starter rankings year over year is how they change, but the skills don’t really change. For unstints, next year, Wheeler will be ranked before Nola, I’d imagine, and they were reversed in rankings last year. After next year, it could easily be Nola then Wheeler again. This is because starters are unpredictable. Okay, I’m a broken record. I am literally moving on. Preseason Rank #27, 2023 Projections: 10-6/3.31/1.05/164 in 158 IP, Final Numbers: 13-6/3.61/1.08/212 in 192 IP
9. Justin Steele – Welp, called this one. Wrote a sleeper post for him, and he came within two weeks of being the favorite to win the NL Cy. Like Pee Wee Herman, he petered out. RIP. Preseason Rank #77, 2023 Projections: 9-11/3.46/1.29/154 in 148 IP, Final Numbers: 16-5/3.06/1.17/176 in 173 1/3 IP
10. Kyle Bradish – There’s a famous acronym TINSTAPP — There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. It’s 100% accurate. Everyone thinks it’s accurate. Yet, everyone will completely ignore it when it comes to drafting pitching prospects. Could you have predicted Bradish? I suppose, but you got lucky. And if you say you predicted him being a top 10 starter, I have to say, it’s not cool lying to people. Preseason Rank #112, 2023 Projections: 7-11/4.31/1.36/144 in 141 IP, Final Numbers: 12-7/2.83/1.04/168 in 168 2/3 IP
11. George Kirby – This post is going way too long and me saying that just made it longer, but, just an FYI, I need to breeze through some of these. Kirby’s thrown 41 walks in 320 2/3 career innings. I love him. Preseason Rank #25, 2023 Projections: 12-8/3.32/1.14/166 in 161 IP, Final Numbers: 13-10/3.35/1.04/172 in 190 2/3
12. Logan Webb – What I’m noticing while I write this: Guys with solid command are ruling the world. If you have a 3.50+ BB/9, good luck to you trying to be solid while every walk becomes a double with the new rule changes. Preseason Rank #33, 2023 Projections: 11-8/3.41/1.14/168 in 187 IP, Final Numbers: 11-13/3.25/1.07/194 in 216 IP
13. Chris Bassitt – Watch next year: Bassitt will be drafted barely inside the top 35 starters, and you’ll be like, “Well, I just got an ace at pick 110,” someone will be like, “Bassitt? An ace? Ha!” Little does that completely made-up person know Bassitt was the 13th best starter this year. Preseason Rank #32, 2023 Projections: 12-10/3.61/1.17/171 in 189 IP, Final Numbers: 16-8/3.60/1.18/186 in 200 IP
14. Logan Gilbert – Mariners have not only put together a great pitching staff, but they did it in a great home park. Or, maybe that’s why they’re great. No, it’s not, but it sure doesn’t hurt. Preseason Rank #41, 2023 Projections: 9-10/3.71/1.16/177 in 182 IP, Final Numbers: 13-7/3.73/1.08/189 in 190 2/3 IP
15. Clayton Kershaw – Pretty lucky for Kershaw that the regular season doesn’t take place in the postseason. Kershaw struck out 137 hitters two years in a row. If he does it again, he can sleep with Khris Davis’s wife. If she agrees! Preseason Rank #34, 2023 Projections: 10-4/3.07/1.04/117 in 112 IP, Final Numbers: 13-5/2.46/1.06/137 in 131 2/3 IP
16. Framber Valdez – You have to admit, my projections were pretty damn good last year. Wins are whatever, but the rest? C’mon! Give me my just desserts! Preseason Rank #21, 2023 Projections: 16-5/3.03/1.17/189 in 202 IP, Final Numbers: 12-11/3.45/1.13/200 in 198 IP
17. Pablo Lopez – And with that said about projectioins being accurate, Pab-Lo’s strikeouts were bizzonkers out of control last year. I liked him in the preseason, but he added velocity and a ton of Ks. His change even stopped working but his fastball was so good it more than covered for everything else. Preseason Rank #42, 2023 Projections: 11-9/3.24/1.14/177 in 174 IP, Final Numbers: 11-8/3.66/1.15/234 in 194 IP
18. Corbin Burnes – Could we — me and you. Hey, pardner! — draft Burnes next year? Wouldn’t think it possible, but fantasy ‘perts overcorrect from year to year so much I think it might be possible. Giddy, pause for emphasis, up! Preseason Rank #1, 2023 Projections: 14-5/2.56/0.95/256 in 206 IP, Final Numbers: 10-8/3.39/1.07/200 in 193 2/3 IP
19. Kodai Senga – Justin Steele might’ve been my biggest hit on digital paper, but Senga resonates the most with me. Think that’s because it was so obvious, and he was totally forgotten by people for one reason and one reason only: He never did it in this country before. Like Japan isn’t a real league, and he didn’t dominate it. This isn’t a rookie pitcher coming up. He was 30 years old with a ton of professional experience. He also was the highest walk rate here, and now I think he might be overrated. Oops! Preseason Rank #44, 2023 Projections: 10-9/3.61/1.19/143 in 152 IP, Final Numbers: 12-7/2.98/1.22/202 in 166 1/3 IP
20. Freddy Peralta – Senga was one of my biggest hits, FreddyKBB was a huge miss. I didn’t want him. Was worried about his health and his huge velocity drop last year. This year, the velocity was back and oops! Preseason Rank #46, 2023 Projections: 9-11/3.88/1.12/142 in 136 IP, Final Numbers: 12-10/3.86/1.12/210 in 165 2/3 IP
Here are the average stats for the first 60 pitchers taken in the final week of RCL drafting.
SP1: The 1st 12, drafted in rounds 1 – 4
SP2: Rounds 5 – 8
SP3: Rounds 8 – 11
SP4: Rounds 12 – 14
SP5: Rounds 14 – 18
Excellent post, Vin! Look at those pitchers drafted rounds 8-11. There’s the sweet spot. Ya, maybe the K’s are a little low, but I have a feeling that’s why they slip to 8-11; everyone is looking for pitchers with Ks so the non-high K pitchers slip.
I took a screenshot of this for next year.
Thanks Vin!
Jolt
Yeah, exactly
Great stuff, VIN! It’s hard not to see a pattern
Great convo guys.
So we are talking hitting SP’s hard with rounds 8 thru 16 in a 12 teamer and rounds 6 thru 13 in a 15 teamer.
I agree with this, thinking build a strong hitting core and the other managers who draft SP’s early won’t have as strong of a hitting core and also shouldn’t need to be drafting SP’s in the 100-200 range leaving more options.
Getting a strong closer first might be smart before your first SP. In my most competitive 12 teamers 77 saves got you 9 pts. so one closer getting 35 goes along ways towards that. Most formats need 9 pitchers so drafting a closer is just 1 of the 9 with most managers drafting 2 closers anyways.
I’m not a writer either, just wondering about your thoughts on this strategy instead of all bats before SP’s drafting a perceived top closer?
Closers are easily found too after the top guys are gone, like Steve said about Bednar, he wasn’t being drafted early…I like to grab a closer just after the top 100 usually then again as needed…
Right agree with that. I’m thinking grab a solid one then get two more iffy ones like the Lange types. Lot of pens are by committee now days.
Great post Vin.
Yeah, exactly
Sorry this is a bit of a mess. I’m just not a writer. Hopefully you can make sense of it.
You and I have always seen eye to eye on the early/late pitching don’t draft low round aces thing. However, for the last 3 years running I’ve had not great pitching in the NFBC. This year it cost me. I had great hitting in two leagues, finished with the #1 offense in one league and the #2 in the other but finished out of the money (4th) in both with weak starters. I nailed my closers (Bednar in one, Alexis Diaz in the other. NAILED).
Back a month or two ago when I posted about SP here, that was the beginning of my effort to figure out what the heck is going on with pitching. Some of my thinking started with you and your hammering all season on how you could have picked pitchers x, y, z instead of drafting early pitcher u, v, w.
I’d yell at the screen, yeah but Grey you’re cherry picking!!! Of course, if you knew ahead of time that Steele and Efflin were going to return the best value in the draft you would have waited and got them. I needed to think more about how exactly to execute a draft when the goal was to push pitching as far as possible.
My method was to cross reference the NFBC ADP versus the player rater at the time (I think it was in mid-August, so some players moved a bit up or down since I took the snap shot).
Here are some of the things I found most interesting:
A staggering 21 of the top 25 drafted pitchers underperformed draft slot and 12 of those 20 were straight busts. Only Cole, Castillo (adp 55), Gallen (adp 72) and Ohtani really returned value at or over slot.
Stay out of the top 25 sp’s taken or so. George Kirby was the 25th guy and he went at pick 95 on average. That means in a 15 teamer, you’re looking for your first guy around the 5th/6th
Of the 100 top player rated pitchers, 45 of them were drafted outside pick 350
However, only 7 pitchers after pick 200 (Steele, Eflin, Bradish, Kelly, Eovaldi, ERod, Sonny) finished in the top 100 overall (players and pitchers) rating on the year
There were fewer pitchers in the top 100 pitchers picked in rounds 200-350 (14) than there were pitchers picked in rounds 350-450 (17) and undrafted (28) Stay out of rounds 200-350. Just stay out.
Keep in mind that although 45 pitchers who landed in the top 100 pitchers came in the undrafted range only 8 made it into the top 100 players overall. You had to luck into some quality and those guys who lead your staff get hard to come by late.
There were 30 SPs taken from picks 100-200 and 19 of them finished inside the top 100 pitchers. Close to a 66% hit rate in avoiding busts. This is where you want to focus.
I think this is my big take away is that pushing pitching down shouldn’t be sort of a sliding scale where every couple of rounds you take a pitcher. I’m feeling like the trick is to suck it up and hammer pitching in that sweet spot as hard as you can stomach and live in faith that you’re going to find the remainder of the staff in season.
That tracks for me…I think the whole “draft a pitcher around 45” is mostly to make me (or anyone) feel better about your draft…It’s easy to say you can wait until pick 85 or 95 to draft a starter, but in practice it’s terrifying, but also there are legitimate areas of the top 100 where there’s just fewer bats to draft, so draft a starter because the hitters are like: George Springer guys.
I do tend to think you’re right about hammering pitchers in the 100-199 range. They’re always the area where I focus my sleepers and they can hit big…It’s not clear why some pitchers sit there, but they do each year…For instance, I know Braxton Garrett is going to be in the 150 overall range…Why? He was already good! It’s like this every year…People will draft a guy like Max Fried in the top 75 overall and you’ll be like, “Why would you ever do that?” And the person doing it will say something about how safe he is, and he’s not safe at all
Garrett example is perfect. Bassitt, Luzardo, all the guys you brought up all year. I think the other thing is piching seems to be much more about the whole staff because there are two rate categories. Hitting is top heavy. your studs carry the back end of your team. but with pitching if you’re weak at the tail end those guys drag the whole staff down. like i said, that 100-200 range is filled with proven guys who if healthy, at minimum, won’t hurt you.
that’s why you want to hit the 100-200 so hard. keeps you from all those inning eater rate killers that come later
Absolutely
Yeah, totally…it’s a group effort vs hoping one big bat carries your power or one speedster carries your steals…
OTS, I agree with your conclusion.
If I can chime in, it gets easier to do it the more times you do it. The first time you don’t take a pitcher in the top 100 picks, it’s tough. Now, it’s second nature; I’d feel weird taking a pitcher in the top 100. There’s also something else that seems to happen when you do this; you stop wasting time evaluating those top end pitchers because you know they won’t be part of your team. You start putting that energy into researching those lower tier guys. You become better at finding the right pieces in that range. Also, something Grey touches on alot (actually, EWB and a few other authors here as well): look for pitchers from specific teams like Tampa, Astros, Cleveland. In general, pitchers seem to improve once they move to those teams.
Anyhow, interesting read! Thanks for sharing that one.
BTW, I’m starting to love this time of the year. So many fewer posters, you get one-on-one time with Grey!!!
Jolt
Yeah, agree on this Jolt!
yeah i’m kind of coming from the other end of the spectrum. i come from the old $9 staff days. but it stopped working. i think competition is better and everybody has good information. no secrets or information advantages any more.
so I’ve struggled to figure out how to attack pitching. i haven’t had good luck with trying top end, i’ve screwed myself by spreading the pitching dollars kind of linearly, like i said sprinkle pitching in through out the draft.
what i’m thinking is to concentrate draft capital in proven but unsexy or like grey said about garrett, just inexplicably under valued
Ok…today is the day talk about pitching! I have thoughts. Will you be around in the comments later today? I can’t get said thoughts down at the moment.
I’ll be here all day (and tomorrow and maybe Sunday)
Kirby at #11 surprised me. And that’s with him being on my team all season, lol.
Pick two starters from this list to keep for next season:
Snell
Musgrove
Kirby
S Gray
Thanks!
Snell, Kirby
Thanks
No problem
Simply outstanding, Grey. Your SP philosophy is the secret weapon for us fantasy baseballers who follow you devoutly. Amen.
Thanks!
Totally agree…
Do you think Kershaw is coming back in 2024? If so will he be able to go 130+ innings again?
I’d bet the under
One further comment that just occurred to me. Drafting starters early in baseball is the equivalent of drafting QBs early in 1 QB football leagues. Year after year, this turns into a massive advatage for me when I see managers taking a Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes in the third round while I wait until the 7-ish round to grab a Jared Goff. Or they blow 12-16% of their auction budget on them. Just blows my mind.
Have a good one Grey.
Jolt
Oh yeah? I dont know football
Give yourself credit for Peralta. Ya, the Ks were off, but the rest was identical. And you underrated his Ks, so it was like we got a larger dessert than we expected.
Jolt
Thanks! Yeah, but the general gist was I didn’t want him and he did fine
Grey!!!!!
a. Great report, man! Your predictions are so spot on it’s eerie!
b. Trying out my new quote for next season….here goes.
c. Nipsey Russell quote of the day for October 20, 2023
“If you’re not drinkin and smokin, if you’re not out havin a ball,
when you pass away, the doctor will say, ‘He died from nothin’ at all.'”
[I have plenty of material from two comedy albums he made.]
d. Have a nice weekend.
Cheers,
Ante
Look who it is! Hey Ante, good to see you
Nipsey Russell! Haha Does he have enough for a full season?
Grey!!!
More than enough material, thanks for asking!
Yes, the prodigal son returns!
Cheers,
Ante
Haha
Freddy Peralta may have been a huge miss because you didn’t want him, but other than Ks you were very close: 9-11/3.88/1.12; Final Numbers: 12-10/3.86/1.12
Thanks! The general gist was I didn’t want him tho, and he was good so that’s an L
I just went through the comments on here. See my post above, Vin. I wrote that without seeing yours.
That’s two of us giving Grey credit for Peralta. That was a fine miss! No problens with that one. A positive surprise with the added Ks.
Jolt
Ha, thanks guys!
Here they are by the final rank on the Razzball Player Rater, showing their ADP in the final week of RCL drafts (20).
9 Spencer Strider 35
10 Gerrit Cole 21
18 Blake Snell 111
20 Zac Gallen 77
22 Zach Eflin 253 (17 drafts)
25 Luis Castillo 59
36 Kevin Gausman 61
37 Zack Wheeler 61
38 Justin Steele 277 (13 drafts)
43 Kyle Bradish 242 (3 drafts)
44 George Kirby 98
45 Logan Webb 103
46 Chris Bassitt 148
50 Logan Gilbert 105
51 Clayton Kershaw 119
52 Framber Valdez 69
56 Pablo Lopez 162
57 Corbin Burnes 16
59 Kodai Senga 167
60 Freddy Peralta 157
These guys were so available! Thanks for this Vin!
Snell at 111 is unbelievable! I only play in one league that includes national league players. Snell had that less than optimal first month. The owner dropped him. I picked him up asap through the waiver wire.
I’d find it extremely hard to drop a guy like Snell. Just too much potential. He’ll be off the board in the first 30 picks this coming year. Especially in NL only leagues.
Thanks Vin!
Jolt
Yeah, Snell was great from May on