Sun’s getting real low on stash season.
Hope remains its sparkly self in the nooks and crannies of the recent Collective Bargaining Agreement.
If an organization thinks a young player will break camp on the major league roster in 2023, it has incentives to bring him up in September while he’s in rhythm. Downsides remain, of course, from a player-control perspective, but they’re mostly in the form of injury and marginally compromised roster flexibility, but those always exist.
Graduated From Stash List Volume 5: Miguel Vargas, DL Hall, Kerry Carpenter, James Outman, Cade Cavalli, Will Benson, Stone Garrett.
1. Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll (AAA) 22 years old as of six days ago
2. Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson (AAA) 21 years old
Here we are. Born to be kings. We’re the princes of the universe.
I’m starting to believe the logic behind a late-season call for each, but Carroll might belong in his own tier. Not only do I think he’s a cut above Henderson from a fantasy perspective, but I also think the Diamondbacks are less pinchy about pennies. It’s the new thing to offer young stars huge contracts. Used to be the new thing, too. Worked incredibly well. Then I guess the Astros paid Jonathan Singleton millions to smoke all the strains, and everyone stopped paying young players for a while. I for one am happy to see it’s back in vogue. Anywho, all that is to say, Corbin Carroll is the kind of player a smart ownership group would back up the Brinks for. Hell that kind of contract might even be on the table in Baltimore these days.
3. Rangers 3B Josh Jung (AAA) 24 years old
4. Brewers OF Sal Frelick (AAA) 22 years old
Speaking of money, Texas seems confused at the moment about how to purchase real estate on the win curve. Josh Jung needs a new challenge. He slugged .652 when he was in Triple-A for 35 games last season, and he’s slugging .683 across 14 games in Triple-A this season. Player-development wise, it’s tough to make a good case against him seeing major league pitching before the close of 2022. You’d have to go the health route, I think. Just trying to protect him, I guess, from pressing and re-injuring himself. Or you could go the player-control route, but there’s little chance of Texas keeping Jung in the minors until June next season. Bosses are getting fired around these parts, which tends to matter in these equations. Can’t hurt to put a young slugger on the field and see him slugging in front of the fans.
Free licks are the name of the game, if you’re into the math that says calling a player up now is functionally the same as playing him on Opening Day. Sal can’t be stopped in Triple-A. Get him up while he’s hot, I say.
5. Red Sox 1B Triston Casas (AAA) 22 years old
6. Cubs 1B Matt Mervis (AAA) 24 years old
Casas is slashing .320/.446/.507 with plus plate skills (17.4% BB, 20.7% K) and one home run but nine doubles in 21 August games. Pretty good test case for how Boston sees the new rules. I’d be surprised to see them opening 2023 with anyone else at first base.
Never-nervous Mervis walked a game off with a three-run moonshot this week. ‘Tis the season of moving on from dead-end veterans. I’m skeptical he can earn a look, but he’s been impressive in a month at Triple-A, controlling the strike zone (9.1 BB%, 13.2 K%) and slashing .290/.364/.542 with five home runs. He looks like the first baseman for 2023, so it makes some sense to let him get his feet wet now while he might hit the ground running.
7. Dodgers RHP Gavin Stone (AAA) 23 years old
8. Dodgers RHP Bobby Miller (AAA) 23 years old
Los Angeles is rarely hurting for arms, but if they can find room to make one or both of these guys an option for the playoff roster, they’d be better for it. Both have thrown well in their early adjustment to Triple-A.
9. Guardians C Bo Naylor (AAA) 22 years old
10. Yankees SS Oswald Peraza (AAA) 22 years old
11. Cardinals OF Jordan Walker (AA) 20 years old
12. Orioles RHP Grayson Rodriguez (AAA) 22 years old
Naylor has tailed off a bit, striking out in 31.7 percent of his August plate appearances.
Peraza appears to have lost out to Oswaldo Cabrera, who’s playing extremely well thus far on both sides of the ball.
Jordan Walker is something of a hail mary here. I wouldn’t bet on it, but it could win you a week if it hits.
Rodriguez faced live hitters this week, trying to return from a right lat strain. Injured rookie pitchers on the Orioles have rarely been rich soil for turning over late-season surges, but Rodriguez features 95th percentile major league stuff and could rip through a few innings in mid-September. I had no idea where to put him here, but I think he belongs on the list.
13. Cardinals 1B OF Alec Burleson (AAA) 23 years old
14. Rays 3B Curtis Mead (AAA) 21 years old
15. Athletics LHP Ken Waldichuk (AAA) 24 years old
I used to be comparatively high on Burleson. I’ll probably wind up on the low side by the time he gets promoted. Lack of speed and opportunity will be the culprits. Starting to feel like he’ll need a trade to find some daylight.
Mead’s back on tap after missing about a month with an elbow issue. I doubt he’s coming up, but the Rays have been unpredictably aggressive with Mead’s assignments throughout his development.
Oakland’s trade deadline might look pretty good a couple years from now, and Ken Waldichuk is a big part of that. I prefer JP Sears, if he’s out there in your league, but I think we’ll see Waldichuk before the book closes on our season.
Thanks for reading!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.
Looks like the ‘Stros are calling up Yainer Diaz. In AL-only keeper (2C) what kind of bid would you put on him? I’d have room in a MiLB slot so he could be kept with little consequence.
Yo Itch!
Great stuff as always man! Gotta give you props man, you are the reason I had Vaughn Grissom on my MiLB roster, thanks man! Just promoted him and Shea Langeliers (2 C league). And since I am not in contention this year and he got promoted to AAA, I also promoted Mike Toglia. This was to make room for our MiLB draft. I picked out of the 4 hole, and got the following:
1.4 Termarr Johnson
2.4 Daniel Susac
3.4 Jacob Melton
4.4 Tink Hence
5.4 Gordon Graceffo
How did I do? 12 team dynasty league. Thanks man!
Great info Itch, thank you. For dynasty who would you prefer, Corbin Carroll or Riley Greene?
Hey Itch got a trade question for ya.It’s a 15 team roto,40 spots with QS instead of wins and OPS and SLG.
I’m in 1st place by 15 points but looking forward to the future. We don’t have minor league spots designated but every team probably has 6 to 8 milb with some teams having 15 or more.
The deal I’m thinking of offering is my Luis Roberts for his Joey Bart and Matt Manning although I might try for Sandy Alcantara instead of Manning.
Please lmk your opinion.
Thanks,RICK
Hi, Rick,
I’d much rather have Sandy Alcantara than Manning, and I do think I’d take him over Robert in a QS league.
But it’s gotta be someone in that elite realm for me to move Robert on this health dip.
I drafted him seventh overall in the 20-team Highlander this year, and I’m pretty disappointed with what I’ve gotten, especially the times he deked me on his playing time, but nothing I can do now but hope for health and be happy that seems to be the only real hurdle left for him.
Thanks for this Itch. Think I’ll try for Sandy
Hey Itch,
Great read!!
Quick one – currently stashing Carroll, Gunner and Jordan Walker. I have the roster spots in a keeper league.
Gray shared his thoughts on Gunner the other day, saying he believe he was a better Bobby Witt?? Curious your thoughts on this … I look at Gunner’s minor league profile and stats and not necessarily sure I seen Bobby from a fantasy perspective. If Witt gets hot he could 24-25 HR with 30+ steals in his rookie year. Can we really expect that from Gunner?? Thanks again for all your help and literature this year … much appreciated!!
Thanks, Dr Sauce!
I was listening to that same pod and sat up a little in my chair at that too. At first blush, I think Witt’s the better player, but he’s kind of swimming uphill against Henderson, the more I think about it.
Baltimore is built for lefty power bats, and that lineup and front office all seem to be moving the right direction.
Kansas City is brutal on hitters, and their front office is struggling despite having incredibly talented people on the hitting side.
I do think Witt winds up the better 5×5 player, but I wound up kind of liking the comp as a way to sort of adjust the current perceptions about Henderson.
Thanks for this, an interesting take. I’m curious your ‘first glance’ projections of Gunner’s statistics as a rookie next year assuming he starts in the Majors? In his prime, what kinds of numbers are we predicting? I need to take a closer look, if his numbers are going to be comparable (if not better) to Witt.
How does Gunner (and Witt for that matter) compare short term/long term with Corbin Carroll?
I ask because I am in a keep 6 (no limits) ESPN keeper. I have guys like Acuna, Ohtani, Tucker, Robert, Witt, Bichette, McClanahan … looking toward next year, is there a scenario where you’re keeping Carroll and/or Henderson over these guys? Witt and Ju-Rod are recent testaments to the love of ‘rookie-nookie’!! I’m quite sure there is a market to trade my other guys … maybe package for studs and keep the youngsters. Sorry for the ramble, really interested to hear your take on this …
Top of the Morning Itch!
Thanks for the article!
Of these 6 whats 3 would you trade/drop? Waldichuk and Mervis are available in a 16-team keeper league 6×6
Kyren Paris
Y. Pinango
Hudson Haskins
Weencel Perez
Joshua Baez
Wilyer Abreu
Also Itch has Bo Naylor’s bat improved at all ? I need a second C in a 16-team keeper league. for 2023.
Yes, he’s definitely part of their catching picture for next year.
*tips hat
Howdy, junior56,
I’d drop Abreu and Pinango for them.
Great stuff as usual, Itch. Where will the Dodgers put all these starters? I just hope they never move May and Urias because I like having LA pitchers just about as much as anything in fantasy baseball.
Would you move EDLC and Ruiz for Carroll?
Is there a reason that Esteury isn’t on your list here, other than being lower than 15th?
Thanks, Homey!
Thanks, Philip!
I could see myself doing that trade, yeah. I love Elly and Ruiz, but Carroll feels about as low risk as a five-cat guy can get.
I have in the past graduated everyone who took an at bat, so Esteury was DQ’d before I began.
I’ve thought a lot about the best way to navigate this issue and don’t think I’ve got it forever-solved yet.
Itch you are the man. Your columns have been a big part of me contending for championships in all my leagues. In my main league which is a keep forever with 10 minor league keepers i have been offered the following trade:
My Marcelo Mayer and Eury Perez for his Baz and Taj Bradley.
It will open up a minor league spot for me, and there are still some top 50 guys on waivers from your list, so they would be included as part of my return. Baz arm problems are what is giving me pause. Should I pull the trigger?
Second question is rank these SP’s for next 3 years: Roansy, J Steele, Ashby.
Thank you!
No, jimmothy66, YOU are the man : )
Thanks for the kind words!
I’d hold your side. That duo could be flipped for a lot more proven big league talent if you wanted to go that route.
Roansy.
Thanks for reading!
Great read, Itch! How would you rank Elly De La Cruz, Lawler, Vaughn Grissom? I didn’t think Lawler had a shot at the majors in 2023, but with the promotion to AA he appears to be on the fast track.
Thanks, Trevor!
I want them all . . .
Probably Grissom, Elly, Lawlar at the moment.
The Itch!
Awesome!!
a. Canario, Vines, Gerardo and Yasser all available in my 4×4 dynasty keep forever league with 15 MiLB roster. Drop anyone for any of these dudes? I am shocked personally that Yasser is available but I think there is a ban on taking FYPD, that’s not the case with Yasser is it? Is Yasser FYPD? Like Druw and his class are not available to be taken, it’s an unwritten rule and the Commish stepped in when I took him.
Harris
Brujan
ERuiz
Walker
Tovar
Cowser
Gutierrez
Lowe
Outman
Wiemer
Bibee
EPerez
Tiedemann
Logan T Allen
Hence
b. Carroll available in my standard 5×5 weekly roto dynasty with no bench where I’m in 2nd but have been floating in an out of 1st this week. Killing it in hitting (58/60) improving in pitching but still need to improve (32.5/60)
Kirk
Alonso
Miranda
Montero
Pena
Meneses
Witt
Garcia, Harris, Judge, Kwan, JulRod
Fraley
Bench Devers, OCruz, O’Neill
SP Lodolo, Manning, McCullers, McKenzie, Urquidy, Contreras, Detmers, May
RP Bautista, Hendriks, Lopez, Romano
IL Cortes
In this setup, would you add Corbin Carroll over anyone? We get 7 add/drops per week, I plan on adding from your top 7 and dropping the 7 oldest, least likely to succeed players in 2023 when games start during the last week of the season. Also, this league is written dynasty in the league rules but if it dissolves after year 1 then it’s not such a great dynasty is it? I just worry about that a bit.
c. George Carlin quote of the day for August 28, 2022
‘And camcorders: here is technology gone berserk. Everywhere you go now, there’s some dick, some yo-yo, some putz with a camcorder, and he is going to tape…EVERYTHING! Doesn’t anyone in this country stop and LOOK AT THINGS anymore? Sort of take them in? Maybe even…remember them? Is that such a strange notion. Does experience need to be documented and brought home and saved on a shelf? And do people really watch this shit? Are people’s lives so bankrupt they sit at home looking at things they already DID?’
From Back in Town (1996)
Cheers,
Ante
Ante!!
a. Yasser is in the Colas, Lazaro, Gutierrez, Vaquero class of international signings. Should be good to go in most leagues. I’d drop somebody for Canario, I think. Maybe Wiemer or Harris.
b. If it’s set up to be a dynasty league, I think you gotta make room for Carroll, but I don’t know if you can cut McCullers or Fraley and keep it pushing. Easy to cut either for Carroll in a dynasty but not if you’re uncertain about the dynasty bonafides.
Cheers,
Itch
I have a question now lol. Do you think vargas is up for good next year? Justin Turner has another year left with a buyout. They extended Muncy. And then there is Lux who is almost hitting .300 but not really providing any punch or hitting the ball hard. Part of me was hoping that Vargas would be traded so he can play somewhere. Thanks
Did seem like Vargas’ best path was a trade.
I’m not confident he breaks through and claims a starting spot.
Dodgers are not a young team, though.
Even if he doesn’t claim one from the jump, something should open up.
Outman looks ready, too. They might be better off without Bellinger, but I don’t know how they can pull that plug given what he’s put on paper early in his career.
I’m waiting for Jung. He’s mashing at AAA again. Tex should try to get him ready at the big league level. I get the injury thing with him, but he has virtually the same risk playing in AAA. He was a college hitter and is 24. He had a 1.088 ops last year in aaa and has a 1.037 now (went down the last 2 days). I don’t see how he can’t be on big league roster within the week. It seems foolish to keep him down if he is to break camp as their starting 3b next year. Why not get him ready now? What is even more puzzling is that Tex traded IKF and went into the season basically w/o a 3b. It seems like a slam dunk decision to me. But what do I know? I’m not signing the checks unfortunately.
Yup, 100 percent agree with all that!
Maybe losing 2 out of 3 to Detroit at home may be enough motivation to do the right thing.
The new cba at first glance seemed to be better because it provided incentive for teams to start rookies on the mlb roster if they met certain qualifications (prospect rankings). The downside is that MLB back end loaded the issue rather than solving it. Teams don’t want guys to lose rookie eligibility. I think it is still 130 ab, 50 ip or 45 days on roster. We are getting pretty close for that back end issue to be irrelevant as the season winds down.
Yeah the 40-man limitations remained untouched.