SAGNOF: The Legend Of Whiteyball

The year was 1975. Jack Mckeon was fired in late July by the Kansas City Royals for inability to relate to his players and Whitey Herzog was brought in to replace him. Whitey was quiet and mild mannered. Whitey also had an agenda, he was a forerunner to the movie classic Iron Eagle 2 with the philosophy that “Speed Kills Peaches”.

Whitey’s teams over the next 15 seasons between Kansas City and St. Louis led the league in stolen bases eight different times and only didn’t finish in the top five in steals twice. Now he certainly had the horses to do it with the speedsters he had. Freddie Patek led the AL in steals as did Willie Wilson for the Royals during Whitey’s tenure. Vince Coleman was the stolen base champ five straight seasons in St. Louis for Whitey. In 1985 the Cardinals stole 314 bases. The fourth highest total in major league history. Five different Cardinals stole 30+ bases that season. It wasn’t just having these top tier stolen base threats though, it was his willingness to run with the entire lineup that made his style a baseball moniker.

Herzog’s style of play was thus born and named Whiteyball. It relied on attrition and focused on speed and defense to win rather than power. He would load the top and bottom of his lineups with speed and just let them go crazy on the basepaths. They kept the fences deep and the Astroturf fast and watched the runs pile up using this philosophy.

So how does this relate to MLB some 40 years later? Well, the Home Run has certainly become the run generator of choice in the last 40 years, but with the rule changes last year teams got back into the swing of swiping bases. Even back in 1985 when Whitey’s Cardinals were making history there were ten MLB teams that did not steal 100 bases on the season. So you have to believe in the steal as a coach, and seemingly some do, and some don’t

Today we are going to take a look at current MLB managers and their willingness to run. We will highlight the new crop of managers coming in and discuss their aptness for the stolen base and see which players the new coaches could affect the most. Next week we will focus on players that have moved into better coaching situations.

Here’s a look at the rankings in steals attempts per game for 2023 by team along with their managers. New Skippers are in bold.

So the gap in 2023 went from David Bell in Cincinnati at 1.47 stolen base attempts per game down to the now fired Gabe Kapler in San Francisco at only.45 a contest. Gabe certainly didn’t have much speed with only Thairo Estrada reaching double digit steals. That being said if you look at park metrics for the last three seasons Oracle Park in San Francisco ranked 26th for Home Runs where as David Bell’s home park in Cincy ranked first. The metrics say to generate runs Kapler should have at least been trying to steal more and Bell maybe a little less. The success rates for those two teams in 2023 was 79.8% for Cincinnati and 78.1% for San Francisco so the difference was minimal with players getting thrown out. Let’s be a little honest though, having Elly De La Cruz helps raise those attempts when a HBP can turn into a Home Run.

Let’s take a look at the incoming managers and see which ones are like David Bell and which ones are like Gabe Kapler.

Cleveland – Stephen Vogt – Steals Change Neutral

Vogt jumps into managing one year removed from the field after being with Seattle as a bullpen and quality control coach. Scott Servais has always ranked in the middle of the pack for steals, but Vogt played a majority of his MLB career for two guys who aren’t afraid to turn it loose on the basepaths in Bob Melvin and Craig Counsell. Look for the Guardians to pickup right where they left off. I don’t see their top basestealers like Jose Ramirez, and Andres Gimenez taking a step back.

Cubs – Craig Counsell – Steals Change Neutral

During Craig’s tenure in Milwaukee the Brewers led the league in steals once, finished top 5 four different times and only once were in the bottom half of the league for steals. His predecessor in Chicago David Ross also liked to run, so I see very little change on the North side of Chicago in regards to guys getting the green light.

Padres – Mike Schildt – Steals Change Negative

While Schildt didn’t completely shy away from the run in his time with the Cardinals he certainly didn’t embrace it either. In 2018 and 2020 the Cardinals finished in the bottom five of stolen bases. With much the same lineup in 2019 they came in third overall so he’s certainly gone both ways. For me it comes down to knowing that Bob Melvin was always willing to run, and Schildt plays it more situationally. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jose Azocar have elite sprint speed so they should be okay, but I’d look for Ha-Seong Kim and Xander Bogaerts to lose some steals versus 2023.

Milwaukee – Pat Murphy – Steals Change Negative

For Murphy I’m not sure how heavily he will slow down the run game, but I don’t believe he will go at the same rate as Counsell. Murphy once he got to coaching in the professionals has been a coach for Bud Black and Craig Counsell.  Bud Black only runs when he has no power options (See 2011 Cameron Maybin and Will Veneble) and I think Murphy will play more along his influence. This could mean a slow down for Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, and Sal Frelick.

Houston – Joe Espada –  Steals Change Neutral

In over 30 years of coaching Dusty Baker allowed the guys who were fleet of foot to run, but that was about it. Espada has only been a bench coach in the league for Dusty and A.J. Hinch who also isn’t a big guy for taking the extra bag. Look for the status quo in Houston with Espada. Side note for the Astros. Jose Altuve’s sprint speed fell under league average in 2023. It’s possible we’ve seen the last Altuve 15+ steals season even if he does stay healthy for the whole year in 2024.

New York Mets – Carlos Mendoza – Steals Change Postive

Buck Showalter is not a guy who takes chances on the basepaths. During his last two stints as a manager in Baltimore and New York his teams were in the bottom half of the league in steals all but twice in twelve seasons. They also were dead last four times. I don’t think Mendoza will be a huge lift as he comes from the Aaron Boone school which also isn’t aggressive on the bases, but he’ll be more so than Buck. Look for a little more from guys like Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor.

Los Angeles Angels – Ron Washington – Steals Change Positive

The Angels were 26th in stolen base attempts and dead last in stolen base success rate in 2023. While they certainly didn’t have a lot of speed in the lineup, Phil Nevin seemed content to fill out a lineup card and watch things from the sideline all season seemingly just ready to be done. Ron Washington’s Texas Rangers teams were in the Top 10 in stolen bases in 5 of 8 seasons, and only finished outside the top 20 once. I wouldn’t look for a ton out the Angels on the basepaths, but I could see Zach Neto, Mickey Moniak, Aaron Hicks, and Luis Rengifo getting to double digits.

San Francisco Giants – Bob Melvin – Steals Change Positive

While Melvin isn’t the most active manager out there he has shown a track record on the west coast for the last two decades of turning guys loose who can steal bases. This Giants group however is very light on speed, but I’d expect to see an uptick from Thairo Estrada, and maybe double digit steals from Austin Slater, and Jung Hoo Lee.

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