Well if the start of this season doesn’t send home the message we’ve been preaching for years in regards to SAGNOF here at Razzball I don’t know what will. It stands for Steals/Saves Ain’t Got NO Face. Meaning, you can find these things on the waiver wire, don’t over-invest during the draft. It always rings true…
On the saves side, both injuries and job security are already wreaking havoc. Jordan Romano, Paul Sewald, and Devin Williams are already down to injury. Alex Lange seemingly ceded his job to Jason Foley in the off-season. Jose Leclerc can’t find the broad side of a barn let alone the strike zone, and who knows what’s going to happen in Washington.
For the focus of my articles on Stolen Bases, the unthinkable happened on Monday as the SAGNOF poster child Esteury Ruiz was sent to the minors. In case you have forgotten he ended the draft season at a 124 ADP. That’s Round 9 in a 15 Team league or Round 11 in a 12-team league. Around this time you could have drafted 2024 MLB Home Run Champ Teoscar Hernandez, 2024 NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale, Future #1 Fantasy Overall Pick Jackson Chourio, or any plethora of other players to help your overall roster that isn’t a one category contributor.
Let’s get down to the business of guys on the waiver wire with some solid chances to pick up stolen bases over the next week and some select pitcher match-ups to focus in on. Right now I am just using 2023 data to mine some players, but as we get more 2024 info I’ll get a little deeper on the pitchers and catchers this season.
Blue Jays Vs Astros – Wednesday April 3rd
Kevin Kiermaier – He hasn’t hit at all yet, but looks to have a strong side platoon spot locked up here early in the Blue Jays outfield. He stole 14 bases in 15 attempts in 2023 and still has a Top 75 MLB sprint speed. He will bring those stolen base talents up against the Battery combination of Christian Javier and Yanier Diaz. Javier allowed 24 SB last season which was good for a 92.3% Success Rate and .143 SB/IP. Diaz is in the upper half for catchers with a 28% CS rate and is ranked 13th by Statcast on their Catcher Throwing Leaderboard. Reminder though, the pitcher is the more important piece in the equation.
Pirates Vs Nationals – Thursday April 4th
Michael A. Taylor – Can you believe this is his 11th Major League Season? He already has a Stolen Base under his belt this season and was 13 of 14 on the base paths last season in 388 Plate appearances. He will be rocking Center Field most days for the Bucs. The Nationals will send Josiah Gray to the bump. Gray already allowed a SB this season to Jake Fraley and has a 88.8% SB success rate against with a .135 SB/IP in the last year. His catcher will likely be Keibert Ruiz who finished dead last in 2023 in Catcher Throwing and only threw out 7% of the runners against him. That’s 62 other catchers ranked ahead of him. One Ruiz Can’t steal cause he’s in the minors, and the other can’t throw out a runner. A Sad Tale of Two Ruiz’s. When Josiah and Keibert are on the are on the field together it’s go time for Stolen Base props at the window.
Athletics Vs Tigers – Friday April 5th
JJ Bleday – Well someone has to run for Oakland without Esteury Ruiz on the roster… Bleday doesn’t run much, but he does have an average MLB sprint speed at 27.2 Ft/Second and he converted 5 of 6 chances last year. Kenta Maeda will oppose and he had plenty of traffic on the base paths in his first outing. He also allows a 92.9% SB success rate and .121 SB/IP. Carson Kelly throws guys out at a respectable 30% clip, but if Jake Rogers is behind the plate he is only at 16%.
Rays Vs Rockies – Saturday April 6th
Amed Rosario – He was in my pre-season write-ups a few times, and with Josh Lowe and Jonathan Aranda sidelined he has settled into an almost everyday spot in the Outfield. The Rays will face Ryan Feltner of the Rockies who allowed three steals in his season debut Sunday against the Diamondbacks including one to catcher Tucker Barnhart. For the record that was Barnhart’s 8th career MLB Stolen base in just under 3,000 Plate Appearances. Feltner allows .145 SB/IP and no one has been caught against him since 2022. Elias Diaz is solid at throwing guys out if he is catching at 29%, but if Jacob Stallings is back there it is really go time. As for Amed he’s 88.2% on the bases the last year. Giddy Up!
That’s all I’ve got confirmed pitching match-ups for at time of writing. Wanna know who my picks are for early next week? Hit me up here with a comment, or send me a note on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche
Siri!