It’s official, DraftKings has broken me. It started with Tyler Lyons getting destroyed at home by the Cubs on Monday and I never fully recovered. The doctors say I’ve been catatonic since then only to wake late Thursday night shouting ‘they bat .188 against opposing LHP you !#@$)(%#$@%@!’ Needless to say, I’m typing this from what my wife has lovingly coined ‘the fun house’ and what with all the white padded walling and little cups of multi-colored, pill-form heaven, I have to say I’m feeling much better now. Or is it I can’t feel anything? When the doc asked me to take a look at some pictures to tell him what I saw, he said he was amazed by the findings. In every single inkblot, I saw Daily Fantasy values. Here I saw the Stream-o-Nator pointing out that Tanner Roark was a top 10 stream play on the day. Here I saw the DFSBot tell me he was undervalued by $300 relative to what his expected outcome was, making him a great value play. And here…well that was clearly Yngve Malmsten covered in butter playing ukulele to a bunch of Travelocity Gnomes at the Grand Ole Opry. Sadly, the doctor now says I can’t leave but at least there’s wi-fi here. So without further ado, here’s some more Razzball picks for today’s DraftKings contests for 2014 Fantasy Baseball…
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For all of today’s news and lineup notes, all with a Canadian/Arizonian accent (if that’s such a thing, I’m assuming it is unless they already deported it) here’s Nick the Podcast Radio Host with today’s HotSheet!
To be fair, Johnny Cueto is good, but that’s not the name of the song. Pitching a complete game, three hit shut-out with eight strikeouts is quite an impressive start, until you realize it was against the Padres. You gave up three hits against them? What is this? Kevin Correia hour? Even though those nine innings struck me as quite pedestrian, his last 63.0 IP have been quite impressive. And seeing as how he’s one of the eighteen pitchers who has survived so far without a tendon exploding, he could be well on his way for a Cy Young caliber year. And while the red flags are few and far between, I would be remiss not to mention them. First, his LOB% is insane at 99.5%. Yes, he’s really great at holding runners, but the league average is 72.8% and his career average 76.6%. Second, his BB% is unchanged, but his K/9 is 9.71, compared to a career number of 7.19, and there’s really no reason why. The velocity has remained the same. There’s been an uptick of two-seamers with less sliders and change-ups… but if it was sequencing, we’d need a bigger sample. If it’s a case of getting called third strikes at a higher rate, that would demand regression. And, of course, there’s always injury-risk. But in the year of the Tommy John, I’ll feel relieved if someone’s arm doesn’t literally just fall off during a game this season. But hey, pitchers have career years. And when good pitchers have career years, well, ahem, they have career years? Uhh… I was in trouble like six words in…
Here’s what else I saw on Thursday (besides yo momma):
Please, blog, may I have some more?This whole opening will be devoted to Trevor Rosenthal. Why? Because you are being put on notice, a notice to cease and desist your sucktitude. Watching you makes me wanna renew my prescription card to the herbal remedy place. The stats are yuck, take your K’s and jump around as he huffs and puffs and blows your WHIP house down. I wanna take a moment and send this note just for Trevor.
Trevor… Hey what’s up man. I don’t know you, don’t know if you read Razzball, but you should, because we are like the Danity Kane of Fantasy Baseball. Take a look over your shoulder my friend, you see that beard having flame thrower getting prepped in the minors? Yeah, that’s basically Wally Pipp coming back, but in this case he will be called Jason Motte. Now, Jason is a level-headed bloke, he stabbed someone in 3rd grade for stealing his apple sauce at snack time, and though all charges were dropped and wall-ball was played after… he is coming. Like the Balrog that Gandalf had to beat up… You have been warned homie. Oh, and say hello to your mother for me.
So if you are reading this and have a DL spot,or a wasted spot you wanna spec on for a week or two, now is the time. What’s the worst that can happen? Well, he comes back and shats the bed on your bench, but who cares? That’s like doing it on someone else’s bed, and they have a maid. Stick around for some tid-bits or bits of tid for the guy who wears a helmet and reads this column.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Every time I hear Nate Eovaldi‘s name I think about the delicious Italian staple the Extra Virgin Olive Oil. I also think of Rachel Ray and her sick obsession for the stuff. Seriously, that woman puts it in everything. But thank goodness this isn’t about her and I’ve probably already turned some of you off and you’re heading back over to Grey’s with all the other cool kids….Hi De Nacho Favre! Speaking of De Nacho, in the FCL I was commenting how I’m glad I drove a Honda but I’ll never do it again. It was boring, like listening to Air Supply for the rest of your life. I like power at my feet, I haven’t owned a car that wasn’t a V8 in years. Now why am I telling you this nonsense and how does it relate to EVOO? Dude is not boring! He’s damn exciting to watch, makes playing all this worth it. He went undrafted all over the place back in March but has been one of the best adds all season. The returns on him has given his owners a 2.86 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.58 K/9, 1.79 BB/9, a realistic LOB rate, a high ground ball rate and low line drive rate. He also throws really friggin’ hard with an average velocity of 95.7 on his four seam and 96.1 on his 2 seam fastballs. I also dropped him in one league a couple of weeks back. I’ll be honest, I thought he was good but I’ve been waiting for the regression fairies to show up. They’re late to the party. I see him as this year’s Patrick Corbin, a great start but will die a slow death after the All Star break. The only saving grace is the velocity. He throws hard and that is always a plus. In case some of you have forgot, he was the centerpiece of the Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers deal. The Marlin’s know their talent. Ok, enough back story blah blah blah. He gets the Giants today at the their nice cushy ballpark. The Giants are the 11th worst team in MLB for K rate and have a couple of their bats banged up. Brandon Belt is on the DL, Pablo Sandoval is hurt and Hunter Pence has been stuck at the light switch all season. Nothing really scary there. We could say Michael Morse is playing and hitting but I say he’s playing and looking ready to hit the DL. I have May 23rd on my Morse injury pool. *crosses fingers* Bottom line is he’s my favorite pitcher of the day and anytime Matt Cain takes the hill the Giants lose. Stream-o-Nator likes Cain better and has Eovaldi 6th on the day. I say Stream has been partying too much with Hitter-Tron. I’m playing him in DraftKings contests today and if you did too then let’s take a moment to hold hands over the internet.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Mark Ellis is considered a clubhouse leader. Listen, I’m gonna be real with you, there is no substitute for a leader in the clubhouse. These are real world intangibles you can’t quantify. Unfortch, no one has Clubhouse Leader as a fantasy category in their league, so good riddance as Kolten Wong was recalled. As Pitbull kinda says, “Hey, Mark Ellis, you’re going down, I’m yelling timber! Swing your butt, Mark Ellis is going down, he’s going down. I’m yelling timber!” Hopefully, the Cards give Wong a legit chance to play, but that’s not entirely clear yet. They should, since he could be Pedroia-like. For whatever reason the Cards seem to have a hard time going with a rookie in any kind of substantial role, but I’d still grab him in deeper mixed leagues. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?Ranking prospects for fantasy purposes is a tricky exercise. The variables involved are constantly in flux — talent emerges, talent regresses… opportunity comes, opportunity goes… clubs get cold feet because of service time, clubs don’t give a shizz about service time. So, given the fluid nature of this prospect business, we’re going to keep a running ranking throughout the season. This post will run every other Wednesday, providing a biweekly glimpse of the soon-to-arrive impact talent.
Please, blog, may I have some more?I know it’s been a couple of weeks since I’ve posted. Well I’m going to make it up to you. Anyone who finds my Facebook profile will get a personalized note mailed to them; I’ll even seal the envelope with a kiss! Hint: my first name is Jeremy.
On this week’s edition of bears and bulls: Doug Fister. Fister is probably better known for his PG-13 name than for his pitching. We’ve all seen team names like “Fister? I barely know her!” and “Fister in her Pujols”, but I’m not here to talk about unoriginal puns. But I am here to talk about the Nationals newest addition to their already dominant rotation.
Please, blog, may I have some more?I’m sure you’re sitting there thinking that you do not have these types of fantasies. Not me, you say. I have no desires such as Socrates, Plato and the scholars of the church. Well, my fellow points-leaguers, you partake every day from April until October. In points leagues, you need not follow roto rules to fill out all your categories. Every category becomes as important as the next. All you need is points… points. Points is all you need.
There seems to be a lot of variance in scoring systems for points leagues, so the most important thing you can do in a points league is to find the categories that carry a higher or lower point total potential and use that to your advantage. Because you’re scoring system is customized, there is very little material out there on it. As such, a great majority of points league players still look to 5×5 analysis for help. Take advantage of your foolish compadres using the name recognition of guys who are touted in category leagues to trade or drop, for a player more useful to your scoring format.
Here are some guys that I see gaining value for the rest of the season compared to their perceived value now in points leagues…
Please, blog, may I have some more?When it comes to DFS play nothing can kick you off your throne quicker than a cold streak. And I hit one last week. Playing daily fantasy sports can be a fun, lucrative and an absolutely maddening endeavor. No other sport has as much variance on a nightly basis. I often wonder why I put myself through this athletic sadism. Ok, I know why. I like pain the competition, I like the cash and I love baseball. Over the past week, your humble-but-nonetheless-royal Guru has had plenty of competition, not so much cash and nowhere near the love I deserve as I went just 23 for 40. I may be no draft king, but the bankroll increased a bit and I’m inching closer to a winter of fun in the sun. The problem is I may have to pass on Cancun and head to Coney Island. Hopefully, I have a little left over for the bail bondsman. If you want to join me poolside just hit the DraftKings link and you’ll get a free ticket for a contest with your first-time deposit. The winner of that contest gets entry into our $500k Showcase with a $100k top prize – that’s a lot of banana daiquiris. Also, if you haven’t fired up the DFSBot yet, check it out. It’s a great tool for your bag of tricks that’ll give you an advantage over the competition. I used it Monday for some Tim Lincecum love that banked big for me. Believe me, I needed it.
Over the last few weeks, I’ve shared some of my strategies when playing DFS baseball. If you missed them you can give a look here, here, and here. This week, let’s talk a bit about managing the budget. On DraftKings you get 50K to spend on two pitchers and eight positions. I usually spend 18- 22K of that on pitching which doesn’t leave a lot of room for mistakes with hitters. One of the questions I get asked a lot is if it’s okay to leave money on the table when constructing a team. I say, unless you’re a seasoned DFS shark, it’s best to spend to the cap or real close to it. I never leave more than $500 on the board and there are three reasons for that: 1) No projections are 100% accurate. Sorry, DFSBot, you’re good but no one’s that good. 2) More often than not your “optimal lineup” will be wrong. Ha! I know this sounds negative, but play DFS awhile and you’ll realize that not spending that leftover $800 will hurt. I found this out on Monday when I didn’t spend up for pitching and went with Tyler Lyons – he gave me -11 points. Yes, negative 11! 3) Finding cheap players that produce is necessary to win, but players are in the bargain bin for reason. If you see a player that usually has a high price tag is suddenly cheap there’s probably a reason for it – he has a bad matchup, he’s unlikely to play or he’s hurt. I saw a lot of people grab Mark Teixeira on Monday because the price was right in a great matchup. Unfortunately, he ended up not playing which left some people with a big fat zero.
With all that said, we have just eight games on the evening slate, a number of aces on the mound and some weather to pay attention to in St. Louis and Cincinnati. Here’s your dirty turbaned Guru’s lineup for Wednesday’s 5/14 contests on DraftKings for 2014 Fantasy Baseball. Good luck, cheers.
Please, blog, may I have some more?In the past, I’ve gone out of my way to focus more on rookie hitters than pitchers, but after last year and living through season-after-season of diminishing offense, this is the world we live in. Before you blame anyone, look in the mirror. What do you see? Besides, the blackheads. You see someone that supported baseball ridding itself of PEDs. So, this is what we have. Pitching up the wazoo. I still contend it should be ‘out the wazoo’ and not ‘up the wazoo,’ but I’m playing by your rules now. I’m no longer sticking it to the man and going up the wazoo. Hmm, that sounded wrong, but never the hoo! Kevin Gausman just barely maintained rookie eligibility by only pitching 47 2/3 IP last year. Really showing a thing or two about not knowing what was coming or going either by having a 5.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. It really means nothing. First of all, his xFIP was 3.04, so his ERA shouldn’t have even been that bad. Second of all, he had a 9+ K-rate, which is right in line what you can expect. Third of all, there is no third of all. Why would you think there was a third of all? Gausman isn’t a 5+ ERA pitcher. He could be the best rookie pitcher this year. He has that kind of stuff. With the O’s, you gotta mind your P’s and Q’s. Excuse me, I had Alphabet Soup for lunch and just burped. What I mean is the O’s aren’t in the best division for nurturing along a young starter. You have to be on the top of your game in the AL East. Gausman has the stuff to tame the big offenses. As I’ve tried to beat into your head, a pitcher with great control and strikeout stuff is worth your attention. Gausman is that type of pitcher. The only real question is do the O’s stay with him in the rotation. If today’s game vs. the Tigers is a spot start and back to the minors, it’s not great. Opportunity + Stuff = Fudgie the Whale. Wow, my math is off there. It should’ve equaled “worth a flyer in all fantasy leagues to see if he stays in the rotation.” To give you an idea of this guy’s upside, in Prospect Scott’s top 25 fantasy baseball prospects, the top five are Tanaka, Abreu, Bogaerts, Taijuan and then Gausman. That’s elite company. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?Looking for the Razzball Podcast? TOO BAD! It’s now Razzball Radio, and you can check out all the episodes here!
This is a different kind of disaster my friends. And trust me, here in the metro area, we’ve suffered many disasters. Did you know about Snowmageddon in 2010? Sure, what we experienced during that time was what New England calls ‘any Friday night in February’, but we don’t live up in the northeast, do we? No, we’re more civilized and cultured and decided to live in a humid mid-atlantic swamp, with a cesspool of slime, filth, and trash. And that’s just K street. Don’t even get me started about the state of the Potomac river. As an added bonus, in 2011, there was the Earth quakepocolypse, where a 5.8 shaker did irreparable harm to my lawn chair. And I’ll tell you this, no one called in off-shore drillers, trained as astronauts, like they should have to save us. Well, that time is now. With Francisco Rodriguez leading the universe in saves AND father in-law abuse, the world truly is on the precipice of disaster. Global warming? Pfft, that ain’t nothin’ compared to the state of our fantasy teams. With 87% of the MLB DL-eligible, as stated here by your’s truly, we are now covering another harsh reality in this lede… the era of closers as we know it has ended. Thanks Obama! Rod Beck… hug me. Actually, don’t get near me. You smell like a week-old hot dog and the great depression…
Please, blog, may I have some more?There are so many Tommy Boy quotes that I can manipulate to start this post, so you choose which one…
a) I can get a good look at Luck by sticking my head up BABIP’s a**, but I’d rather take xBABIP’s word for it.
b) I write fantasy baseball posts for the American working man, because that’s who I am and that’s who I care about.
c) You: “Prince Fielder, Hmmmm, he should get better.”
Me: “This guy is batting .231, which is actually backed up because of the gross groundball rate (11+% jump) and hitting into the shift with a sense of urgency, and all you can say is, Hmmmm, he should get better?”
d) The season is drivin’ along, la-de-da, woo. And you have Justin Morneau batting .338. And then you look at your team. Tires go EEEEEEEEE! Whoa, that was close.
Now let’s see what happens if you have Prince Fielder on your team… You’re drivin’ along, Tires go EEEEEEEE! I CAN’T STOP! “Oh my God, I’m burning alive! And this isn’t a fire sale! No! I can’t feel my legs!” Here comes the meat wagon. And the medic gets out and says, “Oh my God”. New guy’s around the corner puking his guts out…
…Whichever quote you go with, if you own Fielder then consider yourself the new guy puking his guts out. This post is the meat wagon.
Please, blog, may I have some more?