Couple of sells before the words to ring the till’s bells.  If you want an ad-free experience, click here.  Join a Razzball League, they’re filling up, but they need youse, so stop being afraid of success!  Finally, Rudy released his War Room, you need to subscribe to our tools to get it.  Not to toot Rudy’s horn — ew! — but it is what we both use in all our drafts.  I’m basically crediting it with our Tout Wars wins.  It is leaps and bounds better than our online War Room.  It is indispensable in NFBC leagues.  You can get access to the War Room via the Easter Egg hidden in the middle of the Stream-o-Nator page.  You have to subscribe, though.  Speaking of NFBC, sign up to take on Rudy or Ralph or MattTruss or yours truly.  League’s start drafting March 4th.  Wait, there’s a more detailed intro:

Time to sign up for those of you interested in competing against some Razzball writers (including Grey who won his league two years in a row; man, can’t anyone beat him?  He’s better at NFBC than he is at not talking in third person!) in the NFBC $150 Draft Champions format. It is a 15 team mixed, 5×5 format with 50 rounds (done via a slow draft that takes about 2 weeks). NFBC’s moved to a new site that looks great and they have cut the clock between picks from 8 hours to 4 hours (except overnight).

For those unfamiliar, the major quirk vs most league formats is that there are no trades OR free agent pickups. You can update your starting hitters twice a week (Friday and Monday) and pitchers once a week (Monday). I love this format as a complement to standard formats as it rewards drafters who can find breakout candidates/bargains on draft day.

Once we have enough people to fill a league, NFBC will create the league. I recommend creating an account at NFBC if you do not have one as that will expedite everything.  Put your email in  the signup form below to play against us.

NOTE:  THIS IS SEPARATE FROM THE RAZZBALL COMMENTER LEAGUE.  THAT IS A 12-TEAM MIXED FORMAT WITH DAILY ROSTER CHANGES AND YOU CAN PLAY IN FREE, $10, OR $20 LEAGUES. SIGN UP HERE IF YOU ARE INTERESTED.

 

Any hoo! (Holy Hayzeus that was an intro), when I searched for K/9 vs. K%, the first page of Google had links dedicated to buying drug-sniffing dogs headed for retirement.  Forced retirement of drug-sniffing dogs is a serious problem, and they have no leaders to unionize them.  Complex issue that we don’t have space to delve into here.  By the way, it would be a hilarious prank to buy your biggest pot-smoking friend a retired drug-sniffing dog.  “Dude, this dog you bought me barks at my coffee table bong all day and it’s freaking me out.”  My point is, K/9 vs. K% hasn’t been well-explored.  One article I found on Fangraphs was written in 2014.  This is evergreen information, as they say in the biz (weed biz and otherwise), so there’s no reason to think the post is outdated simply because it’s 2014.  They wrote how the clearcut winner for the best stat was K%.  Expanded on why.  Their reasoning was sound.  Their conclusion, however, was:

Then I cackled for about five hours.  In case you’ve been living in a cave for the last few years, and not a mancave, Tyler Chatwood’s been a bit better than Lincecum, but, then again, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who has been as bad as Lincecum.  Just a few months after this article was written the wheels completely came off of Lincecum.  Hmm, maybe there’s more to drug-sniffing dogs relating to K/9 and that’s why Lincecum tanked?  Any hoo!  This isn’t about Chatwood or Lincecum, it’s about K/9 vs. K%.  Finally, onto the battle:

What are the differences between K/9 and K%?

Why does this feel like I’m writing a tutorial on eHow?  This is such a post you’d find on the internet in the mid-2000’s when they still capitalized the word internet.  “What are the differences between ‘early birds’ and ‘morning larks?’  A brief discussion.”  Okay, so outdated mode of translation aside, what K/9 is is (stutterer!) obvious.  The formula is in the name.  How many batters a pitcher strikeouts per nine innings.  K% is strikeouts/total batters faced.  They are, sadly, not the same thing.  If they were the same thing, this would’ve been such a shorter article!  Keeping with the mid-2000’s style I’ve adopted for this article, let’s do a subheading in bold!

Examples of how K/9 and K% differ:

A pitcher, let’s call him Gon Jray, enters the 1st inning charged up about how great he’s going to be against these good-for-nothing Dan Siego Madres.  Gon gets the first Madre to pop-up.  What a start to the 1st inning!  Then Gon strikes out the next hitter.  Wow, this Gon guy is a-okay!  Then the next 15 Madres get on and score 10 runs.  Finally, he gets another grounder to the left side to end the inning.  Not the best start, since he threw 135 pitches in one inning and has a 90.00 ERA, but Gon’s hoping to get ’em next time!

Another pitcher, let’s call him Schax Merzer.  He gets to face those same Dan Siego Madres!  What a treat and great for comparison’s sake.  Merzer gets the first two Madres to ground out and he Ks the third hitter.  That sounds a bit better than Gon Jray’s start, but:

They both have a 9 K/9.

That’s the problem with K/9.  A pitcher who throws a perfect game with 9 Ks and a pitcher who throws 5 IP, 5 ER with 5 Ks, both have a 9 K/9.

However, their K% differ.  Gon Jray’s K% is 11, whereas Merzer’s K% is 30.  If it’s not clear 11% is insanely terrible.  Last year’s worst K% was Mike Leake at 15.2%, and Chris Sale was best at 38.4%.  Common knowledge should tell you if you’re striking out a guy nearly 30% of the time, it’s excellent.  Mean’s while, if you strike out a guy nearly 15% of the time, it’s not good.  Face 27 batters and that’s 4-ish Ks for 15% of the time; 30% is 8-ish Ks.  Simply math, guys and five girl readers, let’s continue!

K% is more accurate than K/9.

Oops, just put it out there like I don’t have a care in the world.  Just chucking out truisms and not even with a warning!

So, why is it I use K/9 more often than K% when discussing pitchers for fantasy baseball?

This, I think, is a more of a philosophical question.  K/9 is talking plainly, while K% is less obvious.  If you hear a 9 K/9, it equates in your head immediately that a guy strikes out nine batters in nine innings.  It’s super clean.  K% is talking about batters faced, and that changes each inning.  A 30% strikeout rate is great, but that’s not obvious on its face.  While K/9 is not perfect, it is easier.  Plus, K/9 and K% usually line up fairly closely for starters.  If a guy has a 38.4 K%, he’s going to have a great K/9.

K/9 does give some false hope. Pitchers you should be wary of no matter what their K/9 is telling us:

Pitcher K/9 K%
Robbie Ray 12.01 31.4
Zack Godley 9.34 23.4
Lance Lynn 9.25 23
Sonny Gray 8.49 21.1
Danny Duffy 8.19 20.4

Robbie Ray has the 5th best K/9, but the 8th best K%.  Bit of a quibble, p to the erhaps, but his K/9 is covering a wildly awful walk rate.  To a lesser extent, same for Zack Godley, Lance Lynn, Sonny Gray and Danny Duffy.  Of course, no one should look at just one stat for anything.  Does a pitcher have two pitches or four?  Does he get killed by lefties or righties?  Does he allow a ton of walks?  You need to look at the whole picture, ahem, pitcher.

K% matters more for relievers.

With fewer innings a reliever can throw, these things become more pronounced.  Matt Barnes, for unstints, had a 14.01 K/9, but a 36.2 K%, because he’s walking the house and his batting average against was not nearly as elite as other relievers around him in strikeout rate.  Barnes’s BAA was .203, but Jose Leclerc had a 13.27 K/9, but a .123 BAA and a 38.1 K%.  Now, if I told you Barnes’s 14.01 K/9 was not as good as Leclerc’s 13.27 K/9, you may have been confused, but if you literally just read the sentence before this, you’d understand why.  Barnes also had a higher BABIP, and maybe he was unlucky, that’s why you then need to look at line drives, how hard balls were hit off him, where they were hit, and…Do you see the rabbit hole you can go down?  This is also why you have to pick and choose poisons and which stats to use.

So, what is best for fantasy baseball — K/9 or K%?

I prefer K-BB%.  Whoa, 3rd act plot twist!  K-BB% doesn’t say everything — nothing does.  It says quickly that a guy strikes out more guys than he walks, and that’s usually a good thing.  If a guy does K-BB% well, then, well, unless you’re Masahiro Tanaka, you’re usually okay.  (You need to look at homers allowed too, in that example.  See, nothing is perfect on its own.)

  1. Big league choo says:
    (link)

    10 team dynasty H2H 5×5 OBP

    My Hoskins for tatis jr

    Seems fair, I really could use a stud MI…loaded at CI and OF. Won league 2 yrs in a row to start our dynasty. Pull the trigger?

    • Tony says:
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      @Big league choo:
      I’d hate to give hoskins for a prospect that is not vladito in an obp league, but if you are really stacked you can pay the luxury i guess.

  2. Dr Easy says:
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    I was so used to K/9 – BB/9, now you’re telling me I need to change? But I hate change! So what’s a good K-BB%?

    • El Marco says:
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      @Dr Easy:
      I say anything over 15% is good. 18% is great and over 20-21% is elite

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Dr Easy: Ha, the morale of the story is K/9-BB/9 are fine, if slightly misleading in some instances, agree with Marco

  3. Alex says:
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    My home league is a 16 team OBP league. For drafting hitters, would you suggest following your top 500 rankings or Rudy’s OBP rankings? For example Carlos Santana is ranked 42 for hitters in OBP and jake Bauers is ranked 71 for hitters in OBP, definitely a big difference when it’s draft time.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Alex: Rudy’s OBP rankings

  4. Hebrew Hammer says:
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    Numbers are hard.

    Pictures are easier.

  5. Ante Galic says:
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    Grey!!!

    Great k/9 vs k% and then finally, spoiler alert, the jawbreaking ending of K-BB% which is actually a great metric.

    a. I have dropped the John Lennon quote. He’s a bit of a d*ck.

    b. Subdued Norm MacDonald quote of the day for February 21

    1. I used to think revenge was a dish best served cold. But then I realized it meant getting back at somebody.

    2. Music is the universal language but one day soon it will be replaced by Chinese.

    3. Why doesn’t an Appleby’s called their appetizers appletizers? Why doesn’t that waitress I met at TGIF Fridays never call me back?

    4. A worldwide scientific study confirms a long-held suspicion. No one anywhere likes drum circles.

    5. Justin Bieber’s monkey’s been quarantined which reminds us how far we’ve come since headlines about Pearl Harbor and D-Day.

    6. In the coffee shop lineup today, I heard a guy behind me say, I like to start by biting the ears off and I prayed to God that he’s talking about a chocolate Easter bunny.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood says:
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      @Ante Galic:

      Are the Chicago PD going to charge Jussie Smolelt with a Self Hate crime or just a felony self loathing misdemeanor ?

  6. LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood says:
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    How do get out of a fanTrax league i signed up for one but it doesnt seem to be filling up i was thinking about switching to another but i don’t want to do two leagues. I’m not ready to move back to my mom’s basement.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood: Woof! Really? Leaving leagues ruins the entire solar system… On left is OPTIONS, under that you can QUIT league, bottom of options page

      • LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood says:
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        @Grey:

        Yeah but I’m the only one registered in that one. Much as I like playing with myself there are better options.

        it may be because i picked one with a late draft so it may fill up. I did not notice the Open Spots column so i will watch for awhile before i change.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          It’ll fill up eventually, or join another league, up to you… No sweat either way…

          • LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood says:
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            @Grey:

            thanks i’ll hang there for awhile and see if it gets active

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Nice, Lenny!

  7. Swat290 says:
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    Not fantasy related: Ignore this if you want but… I’m a White Sox fan and would like your take on the franchise. Was it realistic to expect either Machado or Harper to go there?

    Fantasy related: I have won my league the past two years thanks to you and razzball so thank you sirs and I look forward to another season filled with gems of both the comedic and fantasy baseball types!

    • Five-on-One says:
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      @Swat290: The Padres got Machado, so yes realistic. Just offer the most money and the players will go there. OF course, San Diego does have slightly better weather than Chicago, but it is almost always all about the money.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Swat290: Yeah, I think it was realistic if they met asking prices… $280 mil was not getting it done — White Sox are gonna be good in the next year or so…

      • Dave D says:
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        @Grey: Yeah, next offseason they should go heavy for a top of rotation vet and maybe another bat, bullpen help. They look good for 2020 and beyond. Good young core.

        Honestly, if you could live like a millionaire in San Diego why would you choose cold weather somewhere else? I’d buy a ten million dollar oceanfront estate in La Jolla if I were him. Being rich in SD is about as good as it gets.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Agreed, they just need pitching help

          La Jolla is nice, but whole area is too sleepy for me

          • DonnieB says:
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            Go Newport Beach/Corona Del Mar area over LaJolla. Machado could afford to have an additional condo at Petco for extra convenience. Or a driver. Or a helicopter from John Wayne Airport. All kinds of options with $300 million.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, true… not my favorite city but I can understand the appeal

              • DonnieB says:
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                What’s your favorite in the area?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Los Angeles

              • DonnieB says:
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                What’s your favorite in the area?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Not a huge fan of the area

  8. Quality Sharts says:
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    Imagine if you will, a 12 team, 12 keeper league, keep forever with no value for rounds and we have minor leaguers.

    Standard 5×5 scoring with the exception of QS in lieu of Ws. I currently have Wil Myers and Sano as my 3B options.

    Would you rather:

    A. Trade Thor for German Marquez/Miguel Andujar
    B. Trade Jo Adell for Eugenio Suarez
    C. Sit tight and enjoy cursing Wil Myers all season.
    D. Go on an emotionless date with Trevor Bauer

    What say you, sirs (and presumably one lady)?

  9. The Great Knoche says:
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    Here’s current NFBC Rooster. Round 20 coming up.

    1b Mancini
    2B Cano
    3B Escobar
    ss Turner
    MI Peraza
    CR Murphy (Eventually)
    OF Stanton
    OF Soto
    OF Dahl
    OF Jimenez
    OF Laureano
    UT Meadows

    P Buehler
    P Castillo
    P Corbin
    P Glasnow
    P Musgrove
    P Allen
    P LeClerc

    Time for Catchers in Pitchers. Think I can absorb Zunino’s BA based on where I am now. I’m projecting out at .282.

    Looking at Zunino or Alfaro if I go catcher, otherwise Trevor Williams, Godley, Jon Gray, Skaggs, Chacin on the pitching side

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      @The Great Knoche: Also signed up for RAZZNFBC, again. One of these years I’ll avoid having 20 guys on the DL at the same time and victory will be mine!

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        @Grey: went Alfaro and then Jon Gray. I think you should adjust your Jon Gray rankings. Digging into his issues besides pitching at Coors are a fairly simple fix. Stop giving up hits when runners are on base. OppBA was .297 with runners on base and his strand rate was only 67%. If he can get that corrected I can see a sub 4.00 ERA no problem.

        He put on 25 pounds of muscle in the off season, so hopefully that helps stabilize him, and even he said he didn’t feel healthy last year. If he’s throwing 95 next week, I’d say he’s in for a big year. And at pick 247 which is about 40 past his ADP I say go for it.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I love some Alfaro as much as someone can love a catcher… you’re a braver person than me going Gray

          • The Great Knoche says:
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            @Grey: Brave and Wise are different things.

            Brave says Gray is a Top 40 pitcher at end of year. Wise says I told you to take Heaney 5 rounds ago.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              You didn’t draft Heaney and he’s there?

              • The Great Knoche says:
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                @Grey: No, no. He went five rounds ago around pick 170. Give me some credit.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ah, okay, was gonna IP ban ya

  10. Dave D says:
    (link)

    I put my name on the list. No start until 3/4? Man, talk about a late start for DC. Crazy train. I used my email that I use for NFBC which is different than my Razzball mailing list one in case it matters.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nice, email doesn’t matter… Glad to see you’re aboard the crazy train!

      • Dave D says:
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        @Grey:

        I had to reach deep into my soul to find the energy for a 4th DC. I will likely set a personal record with 7 NFBC teams. I hope I can keep track of everything in my aging brain. Maybe you can exploit my early signs of dementia to win an overall title on my back. You could call me Donnie Moore or Mitch Williams.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          That was our plan all along! Muahahahaha

          • Dave D says:
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            @Grey: I figured. My biggest decision will be draft position. I’ve been 9, 10, 11 so far. I might want to try something different if I get preference. I have been low preference to date. Their random KDS has issues with me so thats more good news for you!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I got #1 pick in my one league so far using KDS

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Until then I thought it was all fixed

              • Dave D says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                Nice. Is that NFBC?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Technically, yes, but it’s that TGFBI league which is ‘pert league for no $

                  • Dave D says:
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                    @Grey:

                    No money? You’re selling yourself short, Grey! Make some dough. Do you do the Tout Wars live draft in NY? I’ve never done a live one. I will eventually I imagine but I’m not living for myself for the next decade or beyond.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I wanna do a live NFBC draft, but in Vegas… I do the Tout Wars thing live in NY, yeah, but no $ there either

                  • Tbill87 says:
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                    @Grey: Grey, which TGFBI league are you in and when is the draft?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Think I’m in 16

  11. Test Kitchen says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Great article. Always beneficial to get a look at your thought process and methods for evaluation.

    Annoying question on the downloadable War Room:

    Any update on when it will be available? My draft is coming up soon…

    I saw that Rudy’s War Room is available now and maybe I’ll check that out if the free one isn’t out yet.

    Much thanks.

    • ForWhomGeorgeBellTolls says:
      (link)

      @Test Kitchen: Follow up question to Test Kitchen’s– how will Rudy’s War Room differ from the downloadable one we are all patiently awaiting? Is it downloadable too?

      • main differences:
        1) It is based on my player rater projections/rankings vs Grey’s
        2) Instead of actual stats, it has each stat on the same scale ($) for easier comparisons.
        3) You can choose 10, 12, 14, or 15 team leagues and it’ll adjust the $ accordingly
        4) It uses NFBC ADP data to predict the % chance that a player is available per round

        this is what grey and I use for all our drafts. a bunch of our writers who participated in the TGFBI expert league used it as well.

        • Dustin Stokes says:
          (link)

          @Rudy Gamble: Where do we find your War room? Is it downloadable?

          • Tbill87 says:
            (link)

            @Dustin Stokes: @Rudy_Gamble, I can’t seem to find your war room either:(

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Test Kitchen: I’m guessing free one will be early next week

      • knucks says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Yea Hot Rod is shooting to have this ready early next week. I provided him the Tiers sheet, which he said will save him some time. Much like his mother, Dorothy Mantooth, H.R. is a Saint for doing this for everyone.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          You get my note about the players you thought I forgot?

          • knucks says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Oh yes, I did. I def worked through that as quickly as possible. I know HR saw them too, so he’ll see where I was wrong and update accordingly.

            On the last SS Tier, I jumped to the wrong Crawford. Anyways, this one that’s Rudy uses is fantastic.

            Rudy can’t fail.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I try to tell people that War Room is incredible and worth the price of admission… I wouldn’t steer ya wrong

              • Zachary Hooker says:
                (link)

                @Grey: love that you guys are using the comments section for internal “work” discussions [briefly contemplates spelling the word “professionalism” in all caps with dashes between the letters so as to sarcastically emphasize it but decides to narrate the contemplation instead]

                will play with Rudy’s toy but also v much looking forward to Hot Rod’s — a perennial fave of mine; thanks as always

                oh and also thanks for the ad-free option; the mobile version of the site was a f*$^ing war zone

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  No problem, Zach! Never change it to Zack…

  12. Desmond says:
    (link)

    Be interested in your thoughts on my NFBC team – draft and hold, 15 teamer. I’m liking my hitting but thinking I could be light on pitching, saves being a particular area of concern.

    C – McCann, Kelly
    INF – Freeman, Rizzo, Hernandez, Escobar, Shaw, Asdrubal Cabrera
    OF – Yelich, Rosario, Robles, Laureano, Markakis
    UT – Palka
    Bench – Pujols, Panik, DeShields, some more blergh and a few prospects (Nate Lowe, Riley, Alvarez…)
    SP – Clevinger, Greinke, Hendricks, Tanaka, Sonny Gray, Wacha
    RP – Seranthony, Morrow, Minter, Betances
    Bench – Toussaint, Peacock, Caleb Smith, Chatwood and more blergh.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Desmond: Your pitching is a bit of a mess, doesn’t look like you follow my rankings — hitting seems okay

      • Desmond says:
        (link)

        @Grey: This was a slow draft in December/early Jan, so rankings weren’t out for the majority of it. And yeah, thanks for confirming my suspicions! Keep up the good work.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  13. Bobby says:
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    In a standard 12-team mixed Yahoo roto league. I can only keep 5 – who would you keep? (I swear all of these players are on my team; I wish I could keep them all)

    Betts
    Soto
    Merrifield
    Blackmon
    Snell
    Bauer
    Flaherty
    Taillon
    Severino

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Bobby:

      Snell
      Bauer
      Betts
      Soto
      then coin flip… I guess Blackmon

      • Bobby says:
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        What if I traded for Mondesi? Someone is offering him for Bauer – Would you do it? (and would that then change the 5th keeper, say from Blackmon to Flaherty?)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          That sounds fine, and sexy

          • Bobby says:
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            The other team just offered Mondesi for Merrifield. Am I missing something because this deal seems too good to be true. If (I mean, when) I accept, do I still keep Betts, Soto, Bauer, & Snell?

            Basically, what I’m asking is this: Is Mondesi a better keeper than Blackmon or Flaherty?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Grab Mondesi immediately

  14. Bucktail30 says:
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    Interesting…I looked up the 10 best K-BB% last year. I think I may target Bundy this spring. If he can keep the ball in the park, he could be elite.

    Scherzer
    Sale
    Degrom
    Marquez
    Verlander
    Carrasco
    Bundy !
    Paxton
    Corbin
    Bauer

    • Bucktail30 says:
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      @Bucktail30: Just figured out I had the ‘vs RH’ filter on.
      sooooooooooooooo not jumping on the Bundy bandwagon with both feet yet. Son of a..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Bucktail30: Yeah, Bundy’s sneaky, the problem is O’s, AL East and his track record

  15. LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood says:
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    Prediciction Scott Boris has Bryce Harper announce hiss signing 15 minutes before Muchado’s press conference tomorrow.

  16. Tom says:
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    How long do you think Verlander continues to produce at this elite level?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Tom: I’m not betting against him, but I’m also not drafting him… Maybe next year

  17. Dustin Stokes says:
    (link)

    Where do we find your War room? Is it downloadable?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Dustin Stokes: It is downloadable… Instructions are at top of this post

  18. Matty says:
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    After all of these years of thinking in terms of K/9 – BB/9 this is making everything so much more complicated.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Matty: Ha, K/9 – BB/9 will still be used, just felt like pointing out inefficiencies

  19. TJ says:
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    Dearest Grey,

    I have my 12 team, H2H keeper league draft coming up and would like your opinion on what to focus on. Not because I think you are God (yes I do), but because you know more than I do… This a weird intro.

    C — (empty)
    1B — (empty)
    2B — Baez, 1st rd
    3B — Rendon, 2nd rd
    SS — Story, 3rd rd
    OF — Betts, 25th rd (unique system to our league, don’t ask questions)
    OF — Judge, 20th rd
    OF — (empty)
    Util x2 — (empty)

    SP — Nola (4th rd), Severino (19th rd), Wheeler (24th rd), T. Williams (24th rd)

    If I were a wise man, I would tell myself that I have a solid team starting this season and I cannot mess up this draft. Unfortunately I am not wise and have concerns. First concern, I don’t have a catcher. I will probably need to draft that first (sarcasm is weird over the internet)…

    Anyways, my problem lies in the fact that I won’t have a pick in the draft until the 8th round because I traded away my 5th-7th last season to win the championship because I like winning. Around the 8th round, its roughly the ~100th pick or so my team will take a drop off. Also, you have no love for Severino or Williams. I am not going against you oh wise one, but their value was too good to pass up..

    Where am I going 1B and SP wise?

    Thanks and much love.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @TJ: Haha… Forget catcher, you need a 1B, SP, OF and UTIL… Impossible to know what is available in your league… You have a solid core tho, I think you should look for a 1B first, then SP, prolly… Again, without knowing what’s out there, who knows

  20. Big league choo says:
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    10 team h2h dynasty 5×5 OBP

    1)Hoskins or Whitley/tucker

    2)Hoskins/alex Reyes or Giancarlo

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Big league choo: Hoskins… Giancarlo… 2 trade is fair for either side

  21. tdub says:
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    Where can I find Rudy’s projections for Points Leagues? btw, you guys are awesome.

  22. Christian Dopp says:
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    Signed up to defend my title!!!

      • Cram It says:
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        @Christian Dopp: Ah, that was you. I hate you but congrats man!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Against who? I won my league

      • Christian Dopp says:
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        @Grey: Rudy

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ah, nice

      • Christian Dopp says:
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        @Grey: held off Rudy and Cram It at the end

  23. Micah Vansciver says:
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    I’ve been offered Edwin Diaz for Victor Robles in my 12 team dynasty league with 12 keepers. My keeper situation looks like this:
    Bats:
    Goldy, Altuve, Bregman, Mondesi, Rendon, Benintendi, Gallo and Hoskins

    Pitchers:
    Strasburg, Hader

    We also keep 5 minor leaguers. Mine are currently Robles, Alonso, Tucker, Wander, and Widener.

    Should I take this trade?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d want Robles

  24. HRMMM says:
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    $4 Nimmo or $17 Puig keeper in NL Only (10 tm, $260, 5×5), keeping Story and pitchers in my other slots.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nimmo’s nice price, just redraft Puig

      • HRMMM says:
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        @Grey: Thanks!

        Rudy has Puig as a top tier NL Only player in the auction values, but your rankings have Puig a bit lower. Do you two disagree on what to expect from him this year?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I like Puig, I’m saying you can redraft him at or near that cost… If you prefer Puig, it’s fine with me… Not arguing against Puig, since I do like him

          • HRMMM says:
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            @Grey:

            Understood, thanks. I actually had pretty much decided on Nimmo, but then I noticed the player rater has Puig at the 15th best player overall and valued at $28 in NL Only 10 tm, which surprised me. I’m sure I could buy him for that, but not sure he’s worth it! I’ll keep pondering..

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              No problem

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Oh, and in a keeper, he’s definitely worth that

  25. Kippity Kim Kurgler says:
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    Grey,

    On average, what round would you start looking for closers, and which ones are you targeting first? Thanks as always.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Around 110-120 overall, who’s ever there according to my rankings

  26. Sano Chance in Hell says:
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    Gray!

    Quick question – all things equal, who do you prefer as a 5 year keeper, Robles or Devers?

    Follow-up: I know you’ve mentioned concerns about Devers given his struggles last year, is he a guy that you keep and wait for him to work it out or trade him while his value is reasonably high as a prospect?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Robles — I’d hold Devers if I could

  27. Crime Dog says:
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    Awesome write-up. That’s all

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks!

  28. Lubes says:
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    Hey Grey! Welcome back (to me- looks like you’ve been here the whole time).

    Keeper decisions to make- 10 team 5×5 league w/ OBP, keep 5 forever. Choices are-

    Acuna
    Machado (say those two back to back- means no worries!)
    Benintendi
    Hoskins
    Rizzo
    Bauer
    Carrasco
    Treinen
    Suarez

    Do I really just go with those first 5 hitters? I can trade players for draft picks too, but not sure what sort of return I’d get on the SPs. Already got offered Verlander for Rizzo but I’m thinking to stay put on that. But maybe give up Rizzo for a pick and keep Bauer?

    Thanks very much! Looking forward to the season!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, give up Rizzo for Bauer then top 4 hitters

      • Lubes says:
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        @Grey: Well, that was quick. Got a 5th round pick for Rizzo, which is what someone else got for Goldy, so I’m happy. Now to shop Carrasco around (or maybe Bauer if I can get a better offer for him? not that much difference between them right? right?)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, not much difference

  29. thanks says:
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    got offered dahl for my paxton. i already have sale, snell, synd, taillon, corbin, happ otherwise at sp, and OF weakest part of my team, seems like i should take, right? thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Take Dahl

  30. BJFOHOHL says:
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    That K/BB is lingering behind the bushes giving you the dirty eyez

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hehe, dirty dirty stats

      • BJFOHOHL says:
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        @Grey: I think both are useful (K/9 and K%) it just depends how you look at players. I’ll look at K/9 first because it’s top on the FG page then all the other numbers in that first box. If something seems off then I go down to the K% and K/BB%. Does that make sense? Then work my way down to the other stats I like to view before I move over to the splits page

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I think the big takeaway is there’s no big takeaway (which is why threw this thing I wrote in this signup post)…. You need to look at a lot of things… For quick and easy, I do think K/9 is fine, but it’s flawed…

          • BJFOHOHL says:
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            @Grey: I just think you can get a good foundation of a pitcher using the K rate, walk rate, strand rate ERA and the FIP’s…or that’s just how I was trained and you know what they say about old dog and new tricks. All this said you need to understand league averages before really putting your toe in the water.

            Not to say I have a favorite stat but I love looking at O-Swing. First, it’s hilarious sounding and I want Kenny at Rotowear to make an O-Swing shirt. But I also like knowing if the pitcher is getting hitters to chase.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              It is a solid stat, I get the O-Swing face sometimes. Yeah, league averages are your baseline, and FIPs are good too…

              • BJFOHOHL says:
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                @Grey: We need a rap song called the FIP’s or one like OPP but FIP

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Nerdy by Nature

                  • BJFOHOHL says:
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                    @Grey:
                    You down with F.I.P
                    Yeah you know me

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      FIP Hop Hooray….ho…

                  • BJFOHOHL says:
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                    @Grey: You just mic dropped

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Hehe

  31. Beastman says:
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    I signed up! Looking forward to my first sloooooow draft with Grey and the gang.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nice, glad you’re aboard!

      • Beastman says:
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        @Grey: League almost filled up?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No idea, tbh… I’m sure it will be by March 4th

  32. I am the Walrus says:
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    Grey, my league switched from W to QS. Should this change my opinion (at least slightly) of pitchers? I mean should I look differently at a guy with 140 IP with good percentages (like a R.Hill type)? And maybe bump up a guy with 180 IP but worse percentages but will give me QS? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d bump up solid starters a little… Make sure to get an ace, but not a top 10 SP unless they fall

  33. OaktownSteve says:
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    I’m in, pretty boy.

    Or am I. Do I sign up at NFBC or just wait for an email?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Put your email in the signup thing in the post and should be good to go… rudy or NFBC will email you once league is set to go

    • BJFOHOHL says:
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      @OaktownSteve: I went here when you said pretty boy

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @BJFOHOHL:

        Giddy up

        • BJFOHOHL says:
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          @OaktownSteve: Grey got Newmaned

        • The Great Knoche says:
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          @OaktownSteve: You doing FCL this year?

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      Oak! You in for FCL this year or nah?

  34. Happity Hassler says:
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    Grey,

    Disregarding top end aces like Scherzer or Verlander, at approximately what round or rounds are you aiming for to draft your first starter? (12 team league)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Around 4th to 5th round

  35. Skip Mcgillicuddy says:
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    That K-BB % plot twist ending will probably be better than the ending of True Detective season 3. Don’t know if you watch it, but saying it has been a slow burn would be an understatement. It’s def better than S2 though i will say that.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      S2 was a total mess… S3 is a well acted mess… I really don’t think he has any idea what plot is…

      • Skip Mcgillicuddy says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Agree. Wayne, Roland and Amelia are all well-acted and developed. The plot is just all over the place.

        I have a feeling they will somehow tie this season in to S1 after the documentary crew made a comparison to Marty and Rust’s case. It’s cool that these seasons all live in the same universe.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, it’s a total mess… it’s like a scooby doo plot

  36. Big league choo says:
    (link)

    10 team dynasty H2H 5×5 OBP

    1)my Hoskins/Reyes for peraza tatis j

    2)Hoskins/Maeda for Stanton

    1 or 2? Sorry won’t bother you again dynasty trades are tough

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hoskins… Stanton… No problem

  37. steve stevenson says:
    (link)

    NL-only keeper, give $3 Castillo, get $14 Puig? Rotation would still be solid–cheap Buehler, Corbin, J. Gray and Freeland.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Works for me

  38. DonnieB says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey…I need two more keepers from this list in a 12 team auction where you keep 8. I have Yelich at $33 for 2 years, Bauer at $16 for 2 years, Buehler at $10 for 2 years, Corbin at $4 for 2 years, Peraza at $10 for 2 years, and Dahl at $10 for 2 years. Total cap is $300. Need two from the following:
    Machado at $50 for 2 years
    Arenado at $54 for 2 years
    Shaw at $10 for 1 year
    C Seager at $10 for 2 years
    Castellanos at $3 for 1 year
    R Osuna at $10 for 2 years
    Hader at $10 for 2 years
    Grandal at $3 for 2 years
    Machado and Arenado are in the range—maybe slightly less—of what they will go for in the draft
    I appreciate any thoughts. Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Machado, Arenado

  39. Grey!

    Last year malamoney put out an amazing rankings system. Is he still a Razzball contributor and will he be releasing a similar tool?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, I believe he’s returning any day now

  40. SteveNZ says:
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    Hey now.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Look at you!

    • BJFOHOHL says:
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      @SteveNZ: Steve…NZ!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        StevenZ!

        • SteveNZ says:
          (link)

          @Grey: The very same. Time I thought about defending the ol’ H2H title. This league has gone to QS instead of wins for this year. Last year I drafted Keuchel (meh, and eventually traded) and Bauer (yay and eventually hurt) and rode the SON to some pretty good pitching numbers over the season. Any need to do anything differnt this year to take a account of QS? Draft a #1 a little earlier maybe? (note that we only get 10 adds a week so full-bore streaming not an option)

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Yeah, you might want to chuck an extra $15-20 towards pitching this year

            • SteveNZ says:
              (link)

              @Grey: Hmmm. maybe someone from the Adulting tier as a #1?

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Yeah, that works… I’d just generally be more for safe SPs vs. upsidey ones

  41. i don't want to brag but i got irritable bowel syndrome says:
    (link)

    yeah shame about the big sites is they don’t even have K%, go to fantrax.

    16 team keep 4 at previous year’s ADP prices. 16 teamer with one of each position, 1 CI, 1 MI, a 4th any type OF, 3 utils. roto, 1800 max innings (6 max RP slots, 5 SP slots). QS, K/9, holds, total bases, hits, slugging, OBP over AVG, OPS, net steals and net saves and holds added.

    keeper options:
    bieber (28th, last round)
    mookie (1)
    bregman (3)
    clevinger (13)
    realmuto (9)
    soto (28th)
    rhysus (3)
    albies (9)
    gotta be bieber (28), soto (moves to 27th), mookie (1) and who else? bregman probably.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Bregman

  42. Magic Juan says:
    (link)

    Trout or Yelich and #20 overall pick?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Trout

  43. Licketty Splits says:
    (link)

    Great write up …interesting stuff & a new way to look at & use pitching metrics.
    in the middle (almost) of a SLOW moving 15 team 50 rounds draft & keep league.
    My team so far:
    1B Rizzo
    2B Fletcher (got sniped by one pick on both Peraza & Schoop)
    SS Segura
    3B Moose
    CI E Escobar
    MI Semien
    OF Trout, Springer, Dahl, Inciarte, D Santana
    Util Happ (so far still need more bench bats)
    Hitting looks decent everywhere BUT speed …hoping to snag DeShields later or some other guy who can help me out with SBs

    SP 1) Bauer
    2) C Mart (ugh maybe a wasted pick so I need to add more arms)
    3) Hendricks ( a bit boring but on a good team & allows me to go with more upside guys)
    4) Glasnow
    5) Lucchesi
    6) Woodruff (3 4 & 5 all nice upside guys)
    RP 1) F Vasquez
    2) Barnes ( hoping Oaktown is correct & he is THE guy)
    3) Greene
    Coming up on back to back picks
    There are 18 Catchers off the board with with Kelly & Narvarez available ( best of your list)
    I need a back up 1B & Yonder who I was going to pick just got sniped best available are only O’ Hearn Guzman, Bour or Marwin (FA)…my other option would be wait & pick Caratini ( I assume Rizzo’s back-up) plus maybe a guy like Moreland
    There are 3 viable closers yet on the board .. doubt any make it back to after 28 picks: Strickland, Boxberger or Parker (big maybe) A few teams have 4 potential closers.
    I need SP (esp with C Mart). I know you are high on Chase A. but he could be there when I pick again (50-50?) plus a few others R Lopez, Touki, Urias & Soroka are probably the best left besides Chase.
    I have always seemed to mess these NFBC leagues up & do miserably. Leaning taking maybe Strickland & probably should lock up Chase (his ADP is in the 360-380 range & if I pass my next pick is 360).
    Any thoughts on the team?
    Mainly would want to know what you think my next 2 picks should be??

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Strickland, Marwin, Box, Anderson, that order

    • Licketty Splits says:
      (link)

      @Licketty Splits: Sorry for the long winded rambling question. I guess it comes down to 1) taking a C with 18 gone already 2) beefing up SP with one you like quite a bit in C Anderson 3) someone to back up Rizzo should he go down or
      4) another RP witha good chance for saves.
      Thanks so much …hope you have a great night

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        I’d hold on catchers for another round or two

  44. Licketty Splits says:
    (link)

    Most excellent ….hopefully Chase comes back to me.
    Thanks for all your help

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I bet he will be there, No problem

  45. Bterry says:
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    My longtime keeper league swapped from k’s to k/9 in a 5×5 league to limit streaming and keep unlimited adds in a daily league. It worked like a charm. We furthered it the next year by making a SP minimum of 7 games because people were figuring out how much more it played towards good RP. It’s going to be interesting to see if the Opener trend ends up making us change our min starts. TBD.

    • Bterry says:
      (link)

      @Bterry: I’m going to mention k% to the comishes and see what they think. Even k-bb% I’m just not sure it’s as blatantly obvious like k/9 is and may not go over as smooth in a 10 year old league.

  46. HERNAN says:
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    Awesome!!!, Drafting Monday RazzballNFBC!!!!, going against pert named Lisa….., hopefully she’s gentle with non-perts,,,,,,,

Comments are closed.