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First off, I want to wish everyone a happy 4th of July. Hopefully all of you are spending time with friends and family, enjoying the luxuries of living in this wonderful country. With that being said, lets all remember to set up our line ups in between trips to the cooler and the grill to stuff another hotdog. We have a full slate on this beautiful day and there are some solid pitching options available. Lets take a look at the picks…

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Jon Lester, P: $17,200 – Has been much better at Home this season (2.68 ERA) and now gets one of the worst teams vs. LHP. The Tampa Bay Rays have really struggled against southpaws this season (.231 AVG./.698 OPS), they will also be without the luxury of the DH.

Jimmy Nelson, P: $17,700 – Another pitcher that has been much better at home, his ERA is almost 2 runs lower at home. A matchup up versus a middle of the road offense in the Baltimore Orioles could provide a solid stat line. He has had the strike out working lately with 29Ks in his last three starts.

Jose Abreu, IF: $8,400 – Has been on a tear over his last 15 games (4 HRs, 14 RBIs, .956 OPS). Now gets rookie pitcher Daniel Gossett who is really struggling to keep the ball in the park. he has allowed 5 HRs in his 14 innings of work against righties.

Alex Avila, IF: $7,600 – Absolutely crushing RHP this season (12 HRs, 1.057 OPS) and has a fantastic matchup vs. Matt Cain who has been getting by lefties.

Kike Hernandez, IF: $7,600 – Another Lefty killer that has good value tonight, he has a 1.027 OPS against LHP. Has a juicy matchup vs. Patrick Corbin who is allowing hard contact to righties 35% of the time and struggling to keep the ball in the park against righties (1.62 HR/9).

Robinson Chirinos, IF: $7,200 – I know what you are saying, “another Catcher when we don’t have to use one”. Well Chirinos has been knocking the ball out of the park regularly when getting a chance to start. Facing David Price is intriguing because Price has been bitten by the long ball versus righties (1.89 HR/9).

Adrian Beltre, IF: $6,800 – Another huge value bat, has done nothing but hit since coming off the DL. I already mentioned how David Price is giving up dongs to righties.

Tommy Pham, OF: $9,000 –  Has been doing it all lately for the Cardinals, been locked in the 2 spot of the line up. Has a nice matchup vs. Jose Urena, who suffers from some reverse splits. Urena has has a harder time vs. Righties (.260 AVG/.345 wOBA) than lefties (.197 AVG/.264 wOBA).

Marcell Ozuna, OF: $7,600 – Ridiculous low price for someone starting the All Star game and hitting. 316 with 22 HRs. This is a huge value play, especially versus Lance Lynn who is allowing 1.9HR/9.

Raimel Tapia, OF: $7,600 – Very cheap bat in Coors, gets Homer Bailey who has allowed 14 ERs in his 4 2/3 innings of work in 2017.

I’m Only Happy When it Rains

We got a clear day as it should be on July 4th, little threat of rain in the Philadelphia/Pittsburgh and Atlanta/Houston game but it shouldn’t really factor.

Doing Lines in Vegas

When it come to July 4th, there is one main event that has to be bet on. That is the Nathan’s Hotdog Eating Contest. Joey Chestnut is the defending champ and is a decent sized favorite to take home the Mustard belt home once again. He is listed at -375 and O/U 68.5. I like him to win and hit the over on that number, he did eat 70 last year. In the Women competition, Sonya Thomas has great value at +225. She holds the record at 45 Hotdogs and is going to have a great chance to win tomorrow.
   
  1. ronald says:
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    I have an offer on the table. I get Trevor Story and Mike Trout. I git up Adam Duvall ($1), Corey Dickerson ($1) and Alex Wood ($1). Wood is good, but has injury history. Dickerson is playing well, but now could be the time to cash in. Not sure getting rid of Duvall will help me though.

    Thoughts?

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