Greetings my fellow dweebs. I know, I know, my Staind fanatics…it’s been a while. You think that reference is old? I’m writing up Ariel Miranda with a nod to a 1989 Disney cartoon whilst simultaneously dropping a 2001 Zoolander on you. The kicker to all of this? You got all three references, which means we’re both a little closer to pushing daisies than either of us thought, though not that any of it matters as we’re all hurtling towards the end of days with an ever dying sun at the middle of our solar system. Eat at Arby’s…Now that I’ve done my job of setting a jolly mood, let’s talk about Ariel! Or better yet, let’s talk about the Phillies. I’m not gonna lie and say this is a bottom five team like we’ve seen in recent history but really, they’re not spectacular either and their bats can be exploited. The Phils tread water against lefties on the year, sitting middle of the pack in some key DFS categories such as 99 wRC+ and a 22.1% K percentage. Miranda has been pitching a bit over his FIP for the year, but I don’t think these Phillies bats are gonna be the ones to set him straight and with a near 8 K per 9 and miniscule 2.18 BB/9, he’s doing plenty to help his cause as it is. Is this a cash nod? Nah, man, but as an SP2 in tourneys, I’m definitely willing to go with this banded, bulbous snarfblat. Speaking of tourneys…we got ourselves some featured fun via FantasyDraft with a exclusive Razzball Listener’s league contest. Why listener’s league? Because you’ll have heard about it earlier today first on the Razzball Podcast. So if you want in on the Razz family fun, hop on in. But with that out of the way, let’s move on. Here’s my hottah unduh dee watah taeks for this Tuesday DFS slate…
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Carlos Carrasco, P: $20,700 – All the top arms tonight are in less than desirable spots and/or on the road, so you gotta go with what you feel comfortable with. Me, I am a long standing Hot Carrasco Sauce fan, so I play him when/where I think I can and against an aged and poorly performing Blue Jays lineup, this would be such a spot. Cookie in all formats with Max Scherzer slightly behind him because of his flyball ways in a bad park to be as such is how I’d rank the top two today. No, I can’t construct that last sentence more poorly so don’t ask me to.
Jeff Samardzija, P: $18,300 – I don’t type out Shark’s full name unless I mean it as Regression Fairies can be a good thing, sometimes. Jeff started the year with some sparkling underlying stats that were masked by a Coors start and in general some bad BABIP luck. However, he heads into Flushing with 16 K to one walk over his last 2 starts to face off against the New York Mess, a team that is looking to have a 30 for 30 named after them called ‘Sex Toy In The City’. You see, that’s a joke and yet, we all know it could happen.
Robbie Ray, P: $17,700 – Robbie at home against a free swinging and Victor/JD Martinez-less Tigers squad brings fun and intrigue into my life. Pair Ray with Miranda in tourneys today for a chef kissing fingers dot gif kind of time.
Drew Pomeranz, P: $15,600 – If Braun is still out, it’s high time you shake your Pom Poms. The Brewers have been atrocious offensively since Ryan has been sidelined, sporting a miniscule 64 wRC+ over their last 7 to go with a 24.1% K rate. Of course, if the whole world says Drew is the pitcher de jour, I’m totally zigging and stacking Brew crew even if the Hebrew Hammer is out cuz that’s how you make those monies.
Matt Andriese, P: $15,300 – For as improbably awesome the Royals were at not striking out and making hard contact for their WS run and the years surrounding it, they sure found the cliff in a hurry. Andriese paired with your favorite high-priced arm should do fine as your SP2 in cash today.
Brian McCann, IF: $6,800 – I know, I know, I don’t need to list catchers and here I am starting off with one. I’m a glutton for punishment. That said, I’m just dropping Brian here where I could just have easily listed Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez, Yulieski Guirrel, Carlos Correa or their outfield in Houston of Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick, and/or George Springer. I’m feeling like the Houston Astros are gonna go off on Colon and on a Coors night, here’s where we could quietly win our GPPs.
Carlos Santana, IF: $7,800 – After smacking two doubles last night, methinks we have a locked in Carlos. Pair him with a slowly coming around Edwin Encarnacion at $8,000 and you could get all you need from the Tribe bats tonight for a Cookie win.
Adam Lind, IF: $7,200 – Camden Yards has remained a top five HR haven for left-handed power since forever and Ubaldo Jimenez isn’t about to stop that fun. If you need to go cheap to get on the Nats, Lind is your in. Of course, all Nats are in play.
Jordy Mercer, IF: $5,600 – Looking for some sweet cash relief? Mercer has found himself batting in the two spot the last two nights and typically bats near the top of the order anyway when a lefty is on the mound. Down in this monetary area, you’re using him to bolster your other bats. If he hits a double and scores a run, well, good on you. Solid cash game bat.
Keon Broxton, OF: $7,600 – Is the sleeper that everyone loved making him not a sleeper coming around? Broxton entered his April 21st game with a .410 OPS. It’s now up to .708 and his May currently has him rocking a 1.117 OPS with a HR and a steal. Yeah, I’m keen on Keon today.
Avisail Garcia, OF: $7,200 – On the opposite end of the regression spectrum, we’ve got Avisail washing off his .409 average April with a paltry .606 OPS in 22 May ABs. Wanna know what can fix that? A pitcher whose ERA (2.78) doesn’t even sniff the rare air of his xFIP (5.20) on the year. Hector Santiago is a prime pick on candidate today for me. While many will want to batter Mike Pelfrey – and who could blame them – I’m saying go with those Pale Hose and I ain’t talking about Russian escorts. Consider this a nod to the usual big bat suspects of Todd Frazier and Jose Abreu; Matt Davidson if you’re trying to stretch it.
Aaron Altherr, OF: $6,900 – I see you out there, Ariel hater, and I understand why you’re intrigued by Aaron. Great deep league bat who regularly gets good run against lefties. If there’s any Phillies bat that I worry will be reading me my Miranda rights tonight, it’s Altherr.
Ben Gamel, OF: $6,000 – Citizen’s Bank Park is a lovely place for a lefty. Consider Gamel your OF version of Mercer and play him in cash if you need some Benjamins breathing room.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Only one major trouble spot today and it lands in Cincy as CINvsNYY looks like it could see some thunderstorms and rain.
Doing Lines In Vegas
And the heaviest line of the night goes to…Charlie Morton? Yep, HOUvsATL has the Astros down at a -200 favorite in a game where the line has dropped a half run from its total down to 8.5 from 9. Given Morton’s current K groove, why have I not mentioned him above? Besides the popularity factor involved and easy price point making him even more so, the Braves just aren’t a huge K team and there’s no reason to chase here given all these other options. With that out of the way, we have Julio Urias sitting out here at -173 in the LADvsPIT tilt, followed by Cookie and his crew at -171 in TORvsCLE. If you’re looking for runs not scored in the obvious highest O/U on the day with Coors at 11, you have a majority of tonight’s games sitting at either 8 or 8.5 but not all O/Us are drawn the same. Lots of games have seen a half run shaved from open (aforementioned HOUvsATL, OAKvsLAA, PHIvsSEA, MILvsBOS) while two – AZvsDET & NYMvsSF – have seen a full run shaved off theirs. All this to say, Vegas might think we have ourselves a pitching night so select the best bats, maybe not the best stacks.