What a great weekend to honor the memories of those who have fallen for our benefit, allowing us to be here, to freely enjoy even as simple a pleasure in life as daily fantasy sports.
Today we are enjoying a ten game Main Slate on FanDuel, and hopefully some nice weather and even nicer company. Let’s get to it today; let’s fire up our grills and throw on some Motown Soul in anticipation of Zack Wheeler ($9,500) making Detroit look like Mitch Ryder’s senior softball league. Or at least trying to – we should hedge our bets, this is not a sure thing. Facing Detroit has generally been very positive for opposing pitching this season. They have the second fewest runs scored and home runs to this point, and are striking out at a rate well above league average. Even though the hitting conditions in Queens are some of the more favorable today, Wheeler should still flirt with double digit strikeouts.
Let’s give it our all today. Play with honor, commitment, and make it a Memorial Day weekend to memorialize by taking down a tournament.
Keep reading for thoughts about today’s best picks.
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Trevor Bauer, SP: $10,100 – Bauer is a tricky one today, and one we might want to avoid. On average he might provide a great value today, but he has been a frustrating player to own this past month, posting 45 points against Miami, 15 against the White Sox, 55 at Oakland, then 3 at home against Baltimore before Tuesday’s 21 vs Oakland. These results are simply not predictable and are at the extreme end of the inconsistent spectrum, which means it might be best to exercise some caution here.
Justin Verlander, SP $11,700 – The opposite of Trevor Bauer, Verlander has put in consistently dominant performances even against some of the top lineups in the league. Though Boston doesn’t strike out much and poses a greater challenge than Verlander’s recent opponents, there is not much reason to pump the brakes here.
Milwaukee Brewers – Though the implied run total is not nearly the highest of the slate, this is the most likely stack to return the best value today. Order of preference: Christian Yelich, OF: $4,800, Mike Moustakas, 3B: $3,600, Ryan Braun, OF: $3,200, Eric Thames, C/1B: $2,500, Yasmani Grandal, C/1B: $3,100, Ben Gamel, OF: $2,200, Lorenzo Cain, OF: $3,300, Keston Hiura, 2B: $2,700
Minnesota Twins – The hottest lineup in the league vs. Dylan Covey. Order of preference: Max Kepler, OF: $3,800, Jorge Polanco, SS: $4,300, Marwin Gonzalez, 3B: $3,400, Jonathan Schoop, 2B: $3,300, Ehire Adrianza, SS: $2,200, Byron Buxton, OF: $3,600, Eddie Rosario, OF: $4,300, C.J. Cron, C/1B: $3,900
Miami Marlins – This is a horrible offense. Their team OPS is lower than any team since the 1965 New York Mets. There have been a slew of really bad teams in that time – that’s quite a long time, right? – all of which were better than these Marlins by team OPS. So why would we stack them? Have we given up? We’re stacking them because the probability they return value in this game is higher than for most other teams. We don’t care about dumb stats like historical OPS – okay, we do – we just don’t make lineups based on that. Besides, it’s good to have a cheap stack option when we start an expensive SP. Order of preference: Curtis Granderson, OF: $2,500, Starlin Castro, 2B: $2,200, Garrett Cooper, OF: $2,700, Martin Prado, 3B: $2,200, Brian Anderson, 3B: $2,800, Rosell Herrera, OF: $2,000, Neil Walker, C/1B: $2,300
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No crazy high risk of PPDs today, though rain chances in Cleveland and Pittsburgh pick up throughout the game – yet another reason to fade Bauer.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Both have an over/under right at 8, but the over should hit far more often in Queens than in Houston, where we should take the under.
Best of luck out there today, and have a great Memorial Day tomorrow.