Welcome to the weekend fellow DFSers! We have a full 15-game slate on FanDuel for our Friday and I’m paying up for my pitcher tonight, so later in this article we’ll focus on finding some value bats. For now, let me introduce you to my main man, Gerrit Cole ($12,000). I know, I know, I’m sitting here telling you to play the most expensive pitcher on the slate. I originally started this write-up with a different title and planning a different intro, but once I dove in some more, I realized by recommending Max Scherzer, I was hyping the second best pitcher, both in terms of skills and matchup. For the season, Gerrit Cole outpaces Scherzer in both strikeout rate (38.6% to 33.3%) and SIERA (2.58 to 2.95). Both of those numbers for Cole leads all qualified starters. Today, Gerrit Cole faces the Blue Jays and Scherzer gets the Diamondbacks. Toronto sits next to last in wRC+ against right-handed pitching and has the fifth highest strikeout rate. The Diamondbacks on the other hand have the 20th best wRC+ against righties and are middle of the pack in strikeout rate. Now that you know who the top pitcher on the FanDuel slate is, lets take a look at some other options, before getting to some value bats.
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Max Scherzer, SP: $11,600 – See above for why Scherzer is my second choice for top pitcher today.
Trevor Richards, SP: $8,700 – Richards has been good so far this season and his 12.5% swinging strike rate says his strikeout rate has a little room to grow. He faces the Pirates, who I usually look to play when they’re out of PNC Park, but Marlins Stadium is actually a downgrade for the Pirates bats.
Zach Davies, SP: $8,000 – If you’re looking to pay down at pitcher, I’d look to Davies and his matchup in Oracle Park against the Giants. Davies doesn’t have the strikeout upside to break a slate, but that matchup with the Giants is as safe as they come.
Michael Chavis, C/1B: $3,100 – As of this writing, the Red Sox have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.6 runs. Chavis faces Andrew Cashner, who has reverse splits this year and Chavis has a .367 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Keep an eye on this pitching situation. As of Thursday night it was supposed to be Cashner, but now I’m seeing TBD.
Ronald Guzman, C/1B: $2,700 – Tyler Mahle continues to struggle against lefties, striking out just 19.7% of batters while allowing a .371 wOBA. Guzman strikes out too much, but has a .258 ISO and .359 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Yadier Molina, C/1B: $2,600 – Molina doesn’t have the power upside that Guzman or Chavis have, but he certainly comes with a floor. For the season, Molina walks more often than he strikes out against left-handed pitching and Steven Matz has allowed a 43.6% hard-hit rate to righties this year.
Derek Dietrich, 2B: $2,900 – Keep an eye on who’s starting for the Rangers, because if it’s a righty, lock him in as he currently has a .415 ISO and .421 wOBA against them.
Jurickson Profar, 2B: $2,800 – Profar, a switch-hitter, is better against left-handed pitching, sporting a .356 wOBA.
Starlin Castro, 2B: $2,600 – This is not a sexy pick, but it fits my cheap criteria and Castro is batting .290 against left-handed pitching this year. The Marlins face Steven Brault, who currently has a 13.0% walk rate and a 5.43 SIERA.
Hanser Alberto, 2B: $2,500 – Alberto leads off when the Orioles face a left-handed pitcher due to his .419 wOBA against southpaws.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $3,400 – This price lets me pick on whatever trash pitcher the Rangers throw out there. I saw Smyly last night, but now I’ve seen Jesse Chavez as an opener on one site and Shelby Miller on another.
Marwin Gonzalez, 3B: $3,100 – I desperately want to get a piece of the Twins offense and Marwin is the key to getting Cole and a piece of this offense. Marwin’s been much better against righties this year, sporting a .196 ISO and .369 wOBA.
Renato Nunez, 3B: $2,700 – .317 ISO and .393 wOBA against left-handed pitching.
Jean Segura, SS: $3,300 – Pretty conflicted here, because I like Max Fried, but I also like Segura. Also, Segura has a .333 ISO against lefties.
Orlando Arcia, SS: $2,500 – Punt play numero uno at shortstop. He does have a .294 average against lefties this year.
Jose Iglesias, SS: $2,400 – Punt play numbero dos at shortstop.
Lorenzo Cain, OF: $3,300 – I know this is in Oracle Park, but leading off against Drew Pomeranz has to negate the park, right?
Raimel Tapia, OF: $3,200 – Pretty much the only cheap bat I can get in Coors :(.
Ryan Braun, OF: $3,100 – Should bat third in that matchup against Pomeranz.
Yasiel Puig, OF: $2,800 – This is my third Red of the day. Does that mean I’d like to stack against Texas? Yes it does.
Chad Pinder, OF: $2,600 – Pinder’s always crushed lefties and this year’s no different as he has a .215 ISO and .364 wOBA against them.
Harrison Bader, OF: $2,500 – Bader has a .333 ISO and .363 wOBA against left-handed pitching and faces Steven Matz, who’s allowed a 43.6% hard-hit rate to righties this year.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No precipitation in the forecast today, but still a couple things to keep an eye on. As of this writing the wind is forecasted to be blowing out at more than 10 miles per hour in the Red Sox/Orioles, Cardinals/Mets, Royals/Twins, and Yankees/White Sox games. If those winds stick, that would be a major bump up to bats in those games.
Doing Lines In Vegas
There are three teams that are big favorites on today’s slate in the Astros (-270), Twins (-215), and Nationals (-200), so give all three starting pitchers a slight bump for the potential win. Currently the highest total out is 9.5 in the Phillies/Braves, Indians/Tigers, and Twins/Royals, but I’m going to assume Rockies/Padres and Rangers/Reds come out in double digits.
