The Tampa Bay Rays’ Charlie Morton ($10,100) has an excellent numbers (2.78 ERA and 30.1% K%) on the season, and should improve on those numbers in this one. The right-hander finds himself in a nice spot today. The Toronto lineup potentially should include just two left-handed batters. Lefties tend to give Morton fits more so than righties because he can’t throw his best pitch (the slider) to them. He has thrown three times as many sliders to righties than lefties this season. Right-handed batters own a .197 batting average against his slider in 2019 so you can see why this a great matchup for the Rays’ starter.
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Lucas Giolito, SP: $9,800 – The White Sox’s young ace is having quite the season. He enters play on Monday with a 3.39 ERA and a 29.9% strikeout rate. There is every to believe that his successful 2019 campaign will continue on Monday. The Tigers’ offense has a .227 batting average and 26.5% K% versus righties this season.
Peter Alonso, C/1B: $3,900 – The Marlins will be starting Robert Dugger. The 24-year-old right-handed prospect could be in trouble in this one. He has allowed at least five earned runs in each of his last four starts at Triple-A prior to this call-up. While this may be a disaster for Dugger, this is a great spot for Alonso. He has a .288 ISO and a .374 wOBA versus right-handed pitching in 2019.
Anthony Rizzo, C/1B: $4,200 – The wind is going to be blowing out at Wrigley Field on Monday, which always should pique your interest in Cubs’ offensive players. Your interest today should start with the Riz. He has a .253 ISO and a .401 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. With the Athletics’ Chris Bassitt allowing a 43.2% flyball rate to lefties, Rizzo should be able to lift one in the air and let the wind carry it out for a home run.
Max Muncy, 2B: $3,500 – After posting 47.1 FanDuel points on Sunday, Muncy will look to stay hot today against the Cardinals’ Michael Wacha. The Dodgers’ slugger owns a .268 ISO and a 135 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season so he should have an easy time doing just that.
Gleyber Torres, 2B: $4,000 – Torres and his fellow Yankees’ sluggers gets the pleasure of teeing off on a dumpster fire called the Orioles’ pitching staff. The Baltimore pitchers collectively have a 5.01 ERA over the last 14 days. After using a bullpen day on Sunday, do not expect things to change for the better for Baltimore’s pitchers.
Rafael Devers, 3B: $4,300 – Do not be afraid of a little lefty-on-lefty crime here. While it is a small sample size, the Royals’ Mike Montgomery is allowing a .547 wOBA, 2.89 HR/9 and a 46.5% hard contact rate to lefties this season.
Mike Moustakas, 3B: $3,500 – Do not expect Moustakas to miss many pitches today. The Pirates’ Dario Agrazal has a slate low 11.6% K%, as well as a 5.9% Swing Strike%. With a low 90’s fastball, Agrazal is not fooling anyone, and definitely won’t trick Moustakas. The third baseman has hit 20 of his 26 home runs against average velocity to finesse type of pitchers.
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $4,100 – Bogaerts versus a lefty is always in play. He has a .317 ISO and a .394 wOBA versus them in 2019. But we should really be interested in him today because of the matchup he has with the Royals’ Mike Montgomery. The Kansas City lefty is throwing his sinker more than any other pitch, but is allowing a .422 xwOBA on this type of throw. This is great for Bogaerts’ chances, as he owns a .344 batting average and a .203 ISO against the sinker in 2019.
Javier Baez, SS: $4,300 – Javy Baez loves him some home cooking. The shortstop has a .300 ISO and a 145 wRC+ at Wrigley this season.
Aaron Judge, OF: $4,100 – Judge punished a ball to a death sentence yesterday, and is in a great spot to strike again in this one. The Orioles’ staff is allowing 2.15 HR/9, second-highest in the MLB, in the second half o the season.
Christian Yelich, OF: $4,600 – The reigning MVP is a good play every day but is especially a nice plugin here. He has a 1.189 OPS versus righties this season.
J.D. Martinez, OF: $4,100 – Death, taxes and J.D. Martinez against a lefty. The Red Sox’s slugger has a .505 ISO and a .534 wOBA versus southpaws in 2019. With Mike Montgomery allowing a .351 wOBA to righties this season, it is a safe bet that Martinez continues to rake against lefties today.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Looks like there might be some rain heading the Twins’ way around game time so be sure to check the radar prior to lock. The bigger weather story might be the hot and humid temperatures in Cincinnati, where the Angels will take on the Reds.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Now that the calendar has flipped to August we are going to see some bad pitching by teams that are out of contention, particularly late in games. From a gambling perspective, the safest way is to handle this situation is to bet F5 money lines in games that involve a strong starting pitcher, such as the White Sox versus the Tigers on Monday. This eliminates the risk of a bad bullpen losing you your hard-earned cash, while still allowing you to bet on a pitcher that should dominate. And if the juice is too high for your comfort, feel free to parlay with other F5’s such as the Tampa Bay Rays.
