When making sense of this gigantic 11-game FanDuel Main Slate, let’s look to the heavens, as both the Angels and Astros offer great value potential today via stacks.
Our featured stacks are all road teams hitting in more friendly environments than they usually enjoy at home. Situations like this tend to provide an easier path to value because players are priced based on past performance. So, if past performance took place in, on average, less friendly hitting conditions, any time you get players moving into more favorable hitting conditions than average – whatever those conditions may be – you can expect better than average performance, and, therefore, better than average value. Ipso facto quota.
It is these little things that separate us from the herd of DFSers playing the hot hitter or pitcher, regardless of considerations such as park factors, weather, and ADI.
Read on for the juicy details, and best of luck today, you crazy DFSers.
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Justin Verlander, SP: $12,500. His salary is at a season (maybe all time?) high, so he will be difficult to own in bulk. But, he is facing the Orioles, which is a lock for, what, like, 75 points? The danger lies in the park factor – Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the second highest home run park factor in the league, and it’s homer-friendly to both fields – combined with Verlander’s home runs allowed rate. Still, it’s Verlander vs the Orioles. Of course we’re starting him.
Jacob deGrom, SP: $11,700. deGrom has averaged 47 points per start since the start of June, and he’s averaged over 50 points in his two starts vs the Nationals this season. He should be a focus of our lineups today along with Verlander.
Daniel Norris, SP: $6,300. Because of the expense of our preferred stacks below, we need a value play at pitcher. While Foltynewicz and Tanaka are likely to be popular plays in the $7,000 range, let’s get even more salary relief and go with Daniel Norris today. Since the start of June Norris has returned better than 4x value in over two thirds of his starts, including one start in Kansas City. He is a solid bet here.
Now on to our stacks:
Los Angeles Angels – The Angels face Andrew Cashner in Boston today. Since joining the Red Sox in July, in games Cashner has started, opposing teams have averaged 8.6 runs. That is a lot of runs. That is two games of production for the price of one. That is stacks made in heaven; angelic. Stack the Angels. Order of preference:
Mike Trout, OF: $4,800
Shohei Ohtani, OF: $3,400
Brian Goodwin, OF: $2,400
David Fletcher, SS: $2,800
Luis Rengifo, 2B: $2,500
Kole Calhoun, OF: $2,900
Albert Pujols, C/1B: $3,000
Max Stassi, C/1B: $2,000
Houston Astros – The Astros are coming off a record-breaking performance vs the Orioles yesterday, setting new single-game marks in runs, hits, and extra base hits for the franchise. It’s not likely we’ll see that kind of production again, but it’s also not a tough matchup today, as Asher Wojciechowski has allowed an .857 OPS through five starts at home. In order:
Alex Bregman, 3B: $3,900
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $4,200
Aledmys Diaz, 2B: $2,600
Josh Reddick, OF: $2,500
George Springer, OF: $4,400
Jose Altuve, 2B: $4,300
Michael Brantley, OF: $4,100
Carlos Correa, SS: $3,900
Robinson Chirinos, C/1B: $2,800
Oakland A’s – The A’s are facing the White Sox today, in a ballpark with one of the best HR park factors in the league. Though they face the best of what the White Sox can throw against them in Giolito, Giolito also struggles more at home than on the road, with an ERA north of 4. Order of preference:
Matt Chapman, 3B: $3,500
Khris Davis, OF: $2,800
Marcus Semien, SS: $3,600
Robbie Grossman, OF: $2,300
Matt Olson, C/1B: $3,300
Mark Canha, C/1B: $3,100
Nick Martini, OF: $2,100
Jurickson Profar, 2B: $2,700
Stephen Piscotty, OF: $3,100
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
You down with PPD? Yeah, you know me. But, we won’t have any today.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Let’s take the over in St. Louis, with conditions looking better than average for hitting and the over/under sitting at 9.
