Danny Salazar, 2015 Fantasy Baseball

Am I the only one still utterly confused by Danny Salazar? The only thing I know he brings to the table for sure is strikeouts. After his first two starts, there was a great deal of chatter that Salazar had finally figured it out and his ascension to heaven to sit on the right side of Roger Clemens and Bob Feller was nearly complete. Yes in this scenario Roger Clemens is dead, and heaven is also full of unabashed racists like Bob Feller. Come to think of it, that’s sounds exactly the way heaven is described in the bible. Either way I’m still not sure what to make of Salazar. On one hand his K rate once again through four starts is phenomenal. On the other hand his HR/FB rate is 22.2%. Which in turn has led to a pretty scary 1.38 HR/9. Then again all of this could be bad luck over a couple of starts. This theory is further supported by his .328 BABIP which tells me he’s in fact been a bit unlucky. The problem is through 188 big league innings his career BABIP is .330. So is he just perpetually unlucky? Or is he a hit or miss, feast or famine type? His FIP of 3.23 and xFIP of 2.18 tell me that yes he has in fact been unlucky. The K/BB of 7.40 is gorgeous just like a horse is, and his BAA of .232 is marvelous. So count me amongst the believers in the Cult of Salazar. So this leads me to today’s matchup with the hotter than fish grease Minnesota Twins. In the last few weeks, the Twinkies have squished the dreams of quite a few daily players looking to cash in on the mantra “beat up on the Twins”. Well have no fear my fellow DFS junkies because Danny Salazar is here and ready to feast on the Twins and their 22.4% K% against righties. As we all well know in DraftKings, K’s are king. Or maybe the drafts are….nevermind. So save a couple of bucks and go Salazar at $8,600 over Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and Garrett Richards.

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Michael Pineda, SP $8,100 – When looking at the numbers a case can be made that the best pitcher in the American League thus far is Michael Pineda. His K/BB is 12.67, his ERA is 2.97, and in turn his peripherals (2.19 FIP, 2.68 xFIP) say that his ERA is in fact a bit unlucky. Go figure right! So why is he only the 7th most expensive pitching option on today’s ledger? Well because everyone is scared of the big bad Orioles. It’s a fair point his last start against Baltimore back on April 13th was not so pretty, as he allowed 5 earned. Here’s the thing: in his four starts since, he’s only yielded 6 earned runs, 2 walks, and one homer combined. If you want an underrated (and underpriced) contest play that a lot of managers might avoid, then try Pineda on for size.

Bartolo Colon, SP $7,300 – So far this season Bartolo’s numbers don’t even make sense. How is Bartolo freaking Colon 5-1 with an ERA of 2.90? I’ll tell you an absolutely stupid BB/9 of .22. Yes you read that right .22. Through 40 1/3 innings Colon has walked one batter. The craziest thing is he’s doing it throwing a 90 mph fastball 84.1% of the time. Hey they say the Dad body is all the rage, maybe it’s just his moment in history. Well the best news for Bartolo is he faces the Phillies this afternoon. A lineup that can’t hit righties. I know this almost seems unfathomable but it’s true. Just look at their putrid wOBA vs RHP of .255. Just to put this in perspective, the Angels are 29th in wOBA vs RHP and they’re almost .20 points higher at .272. I can’t say the Bartolo hot streak will last forever or the dad body craze for that matter, but use it to your advantage while you can.

Russell Martin, C $4,800 – Ummmm Ralph that’s an insane amount of money to drop on a catcher what’s wrong with you? Well two things at play here, first Martin is en fuego over the last week, hitting .556 with 4 homers, 9 runs, 6 ribbies, to go with an OBP of 1.684. OMG! Yeah that was real. He’s also got a very handsome track record against one Clay Buchholz, say 5/16 lifetime with four dingers. So let’s sum this up hot bat + good BvP history = must play.

Ryan Howard, 1B $3,900 – Okay forget what I said about the Phillies and Colon. There is in fact one player on the Phils that hits RHP pretty damn well and that’s Howard. He’s had homers in back to back starts and has 3 multi-hit games in his last 4. Not too shabby. This is a player to watch this week as he sees 5 RHP. Nice price too.

Kolten Wong, 2B $4,000 – Over the last week Wong has been scorching. I mean as long as you consider .538/6/2/8/1 scorching. You do right? I mean what’s better than a hot Wong right? I’ll tell you! A hot Wong facing a lefty. Back in my high school days we used to call that a stranger. In all cereal though Kolten’s hit southpaws to the tune of .302 his entire career. He’s also always a candidate for the always wonderful slam and legs. Jose Altuve is also relatively cheap at $4,200 today so if you went that way I wouldn’t blame you.

Kris Bryant, 3B $4,300 – The Kid got his first homer last night, with Matt Garza on the mound he could make it two days in a row. Garza has been homer prone this season allowing 1.53 HR/9 which is supported by his HR/FB of 20%.

Eduardo Escobar, SS/OF $3,100 – Let’s say you don’t listen to me about Salazar today and want to get Felix into your lineup. Here’s how, throw Esco into your card and save some dough. He’s been one of the hotter hitters over the past 7 days and you can use him at either SS or in your OF. I also like Brandon Crawford against Mat Latos today at $3,600.

Scott Van Slyke, OF $4,200 – I know he’s 0/12 lifetime against Jorge of the Roses, but if you look at his career splits he’s hit 13 of 21 career homers off lefties. Plus it goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway, he plays at Colorado today.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

Looks like we have two games with threats of rain in Cleveland and Detroit. Both are under 50% chance of showers so we should be good to go with all of today’s games.

Happy Mother’s day indeed! Especially to my lovely wife who deals with all of my free time being taken up with fantasy sports writing and other nonsense. I love you!

Doing Lines In Vegas

Vegas is feeling my love for Pineda as they have the Yanks listed as favorites at -157 on the money line. They have the over under listed at 8 and Bud Norris is on the mound at the Stadium. So take the over.

The Pirates are favorites in the rubber match vs the Cards. The over under is listed at 7.5 with Tyler Lyons and Jeff Locke on the mound. I know the Cards don’t hit lefties well but the combined ERA of these two lads is 11. Just saying man.

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