DraftKings: Roenis Elias Ks An Astro-nomical Amount

You do it every day in your regular fantasy leagues when you stream hitters or pitchers and yet something holds you back at times in the DFS world.  You see a matchup that is exploitable for fantasy goodness and you use it if you’re in your roto league.  Then you go about setting your lineups over on DraftKings, pay for Matt Harvey and Max Scherzer and move on.  Where’s your sense of daring there?  Of all places to get a little bolder, it should be in your DFS world.  Ya only got one day to be Wright or Wong and as Jigsaw would say, ‘make your choice’.  So with that in mind and with the obvious names already named so I don’t have to talk about them later, let’s move on to a good GPP play for today in Roenis Elias.  First off, for those who aren’t plugged in to the MLB world, this isn’t a random call up for the Mariners.  Roenis pitched 163 innings for the Mariners last year, finishing the year with a 3.85 ERA and a 7.86 K/9.  All this to say, we’re not dealing with a random spot call up.  The kid has major league ability and against an Astros team that Ks 24.2% of the time against LHP, you could have a cheap 7 to 8 Ks today.  Wanna spend up for the big two instead?  Be my guest but on a slate featuring 28 pitchers, I’m looking for the arms that’ll give me room to get bats that’ll put me over the top.  And with a lede out of the way, lets turn to other hot takes for the May 1st DK slate…

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Lance Lynn, SP: $8,300 – Since we’ve already pointed out the Astros ghastly K-rate, we might as well keep going towards that angle.  The Pirates K% on the year is 3rd worst at 23.3%.  Meanwhile, Lynn has a 10.48 K/9 so far this year.  This is the most beautiful pairing I’ve seen since Michael Jackson and Lisa Marie Presley.  What, I have weird tastes, ok?

Carlos Carrasco, SP: $7,900 – It’s the battle between good bats vs good arm.  Who shall win?  So far this year, Carlos has a 13.21 K/9 and a mere 1.72 BB/9.  Yet his ERA is 4.60.  What the what?  Don’t worry, his xFIP is 1.62.  Keep an eye/ear on the ‘tightness’ issue he was suffering from last outing but this could be your cheapest chance at a 10 K game on today’s slate.

Chris Heston, SP: $5,600 – When given the highs and the lows, don’t funk around in the middle and so I’m slipping down to the dregs of the pitching slate looking at the sub $6K kids.  Heston’s worst start so far this year came in Colorado.  How many pitchers can say that?  Try ‘all’.  Though you’d love a friendlier matchup, Vegas is giving Heston and ever so slight edge in what figures to be a low-scoring affair.

Alex Colome, SP: $5,500 – Not the safest call on the board but when you’re paying $5,500, you can’t expect safe.  When a guy is half the price of Matt Harvey with high K potential, however, you gotta take notice.  Hopefully Colome doesn’t bring his pneumonia with him into your lineups.  Keep in mind that – even though the game is called a home game for the Orioles – that @ don’t mean squat.  The game is in the Trop.

Buster Posey, 1B/C: $4,000 – Posey has been a lefty killer all of his career with a .245 ISO and yet he’s only hitting .235 against them on this young season.  He went deep on Kershaw back on Wednesday.  How much easier will it be to do so off of Head & Shoulders CJ Wilson?

Stephen Vogt, 1B/C: $3,800 – Vogt is in a favorable park for LHHs against Colby Lewis whose splits make him weak against lefties.  Is Vogt the best catcher for today?  Dumb question.  Might as well ask if water is wet.

Yasmani Grandal, C: $3,600 – Now I’m a fan of Rubby De La Rosa.  Heck I wrote about him.  That said, doesn’t mean that I can’t recognize his flaws so far this year and they’re pretty glaring.  Though the sample size be small, against LHHs, Rubby is giving up 2.38 HR/9 and a .428 wOBA.  With so many lefties to choose from (Jimmy Rollins, Joc Pederson, Andre Ethier, and Adrian Gonzalez), consider this a stack suggestion cuz I have no need to talk about those guys later.  Now watch Dumb Mattingly go with all righties…

Freddie Freeman, 1B: $4,600 – The Desclafani story has been fun, y’all, but he has a weakness and that weakness is in the splits.  Anthony has a 5.54 xFIP and a 1.86 HR/9 rate against southies on the year.  If you’re doing multi-lineups tonight, consider stacking the ATL lefty bats like Nick Markakis and even Jace Peterson.

Ike Davis, 1B: $2,700 – Not that you need to punt 1st but if you want to, the option of Ike is a good looking get.  ‘member that whole thing about Colby Lewis against lefties?  Yeah, an OAK stack makes a lot of sense if you look to the lefty bats.  This puts Josh Reddick in play in your OF as well.

Jose Altuve, 2B: $5,000 – Yeah, I tell you to roster Roenis and then tell you to take the lead off hitter against him.  What gives?  Well I’m all about having my cake and eating it, too.  Jose against LHP just rakes and I’m not gonna avoid him just because I have Elias on my team.  Roenis goes 6 with minimal damage, Altuve goes 2/2 against him with a steal and everyone is happy.

Brian Dozier, 2B: $4,200 – Oh, the guy who has a .200+ ISO against lefties and who hit a bomb off Chris Sale yesterday is getting Quintana?  Giggity!

Devon Travis, 2B: $3,300 – He’s going against my Carrasco call but Carlos don’t need to pitch every inning.  Leadoff hitting with a .325 average at this price?  You’re borderline punting here.  If you need room, I’d see if Devon keeps going on and on.

Chase Headley, 3B: $4,100 – Justin has a Master’s on RHHs but completely failed his term paper on LHHs as they have tagged him for a .348 wOBA this year and .350 for his career.  It’ll be a popular stack, but consider this a nod in agreement with Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner…jeez, do they even have a right handed bat in New York?

Kyle Seager, 3B: $3,900 – People are gonna want to go with a SEA stack against Samuel Deduno.  I get it and ain’t even mad about it but I’m all for at least taking advantage of his splits against lefties if I’m not heading that way.

Danny Santana, OF/SS: $3,500 – You don’t need me to tell you about Hanley and Tulo.  Danny has struggled to start the year (or has he just balanced out to what he was going to be?  MY COLUMN) but he’s shown the ability to hit lefties so far this year with a .301 average against.  I’m scaring myself because I’ve now written about two Twins.  Am I really thinking a stack?  Dear brain, please say no!

Eduardo Escobar, OF/SS: $2,800 – Ok, now I’m just trolling myself.  The Twins have shown a propensity to start Eduardo against LHPs by replacing Arcia with him in the outfield.  If you are looking for a better punt than Danny, make a monkey noise and go EE.

Matt Kemp, OF: $4,900 – He’s in a ballpark that’s not conducive to power on a team that got shut down by the Astros over the last series and he’s way overpriced.  And my answer to all these minor quibbles: Eddie Butler.  Because of all the other stack options, Padres make a nice play if you’re trying to avoid the NYY, SEA, OAK crowd.

Corey Dickerson, OF: $4,500 – Here’s me stumping for something that just hasn’t happened yet this year: a Dickerson steal.  You can also consider Blackmon if you’re tempted but I think Dickerson much like Tulo is park resistant unlike many other Rockies.  Derek Norris can be exploited and though his mound mate isn’t the best to attack like his teammate Tyson Ross is, the Astros ran wild on the Padres and I don’t figure that to change, especially if Colorado is gonna get it rolling on offense.

Justin Maxwell, OF: $3,100 – Much like Maxwell House coffee, he’s affordable and useful in a pinch.  Still tastes like crap, though.  You tasted Justin Maxwell?  MOVING ON…

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

Clear blue all around the diamond for the day so feel free to deploy any lineup you want.  Except that one.  That one is just silly.  The big scary thing going is the wind blowing out to left in San Fran.  Scary good or scary bad, you ask?  Depends on if you’re rostering Heston anywhere (hint: I will be; hint part 2: that doesn’t automatically mean DFS; hint part 3: Yes, I’m totally giving you my poker face; hint part 4: yes, I’m Lady Gaga).

Doing Lines In Vegas

KCvsDET gives us the high O/U on the day with 9 with the betting lines heavily favoring the game to go ‘O’.  Meanwhile, the MINvsCHW line opened at 7 and went to 8.  A half run is huge, a full run is crazy bizzonkers.  Couple that with Quintana going from a -155 fave to a -115, that weird MIN stack I was talking about earlier is looking more and more interesting.