Am I the only person who watched Helix and actually liked it? I mean, I never saw it on actual cable but caught up with the two seasons before they were cancelled and thought they were highly enjoyable for what they were. But most of all, it was the use of the music that nabbed me, right from the pilot episode. The intro drop is a great mix of 50s pop sounds mixed with modern synth sounds. It may only be 10 seconds but it really sets you up for the feel of the show. By that I mean they took a Burt Bacharach song sung by Dione Warwick and made it stick in my head and dammit, I’m gonna stick it into your noodle, too. Don’t pervert that last sentence…but more back to why I’m yammering on about Helix was I’m of course referencing said song in my title about Ivan Nova and him facing the Padres. I see zero reason to pitch Nova in this scenario in cash – he is, in fact, not good at pitching – but in a points per dollar sort of way, I like the idea of rolling Ivan out there against a team that owns the second worst wRC+ against right handed pitching on the year, just above the Braves. Throw in the fourth highest K rate against said handedness and there’s potential for 20 points here from a bottom of the barrel pitcher. But now that we’ve established the good, the cheap, and the ugly all at once, let’s cover the rest of the slate. Here’s my love, sweet love hot taeks for this Saturday DK slate…
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Jake Arrieta, SP: $13.600 – The struggling ace priced just below Jose Fernandez may not get much love today. I mean, basic math says no one is paying up for both Fernandez and Arrieta and recency bias puts all eyes on Jo-Fer. With the Mets offense scuffling of late, it could be the perfect time to swoop in and get a less than usual Jake ownership percentage.
Chris Sale, SP: $12,700 – I know you don’t need me to tell you Sale is good but he might be the best K upside of the big three today. With his recent pitch to contact approach, you’d think that wouldn’t be the case but even when the Astros are rolling – and they are – they are also gonna swing and miss a ton. I wouldn’t play him in cash myself but as my SP1 in a tourney, I’m with you.
Justin Verlander, SP: $10,900 – Seemingly one of the few days I wouldn’t mind paying up for pitching. Verlander gets a team with a 24.9% K rate against righties on the year. Sure, Rays also back that up with the 7th best ISO against them but if you’re looking for a sweet tourney K upside play and wanna carve a few ducats off your top priced SP, go with the pitcher with an amazing Upton on his side…um, I was talking about Justin…right…
Drew Pomeranz, SP: $10,600 – Pom is in a unique spot. He gets a Yankees lineup that is not only bad and aging, but also struggles on the road and against lefties. The key problem? They don’t K much and Pom doesn’t typically go late into games. I have a funny feeling he’ll be extremely popular for a lot of logical reasons but I don’t know if this 10K price fits with what you’re going to get. Puff, puff, pass on Pom for me.
Danny Duffy, SP: $8,900 – Speaking of bad against lefties…Phils are the worst in the league against them. A Danny and Ivan pairing gives you all the bats. Duff, Duff, Gas!
James Paxton, SP: $7,400 – I’ll venture to say that James has almost as much upside as Duffy given the home ballpark and that the team he’s facing can rack up the Ks, especially against a southpaw. Feel free to pop K-Pax into your DVD so that you get the reference as to why I call James just that.
James McCann, C: $2,900 – Snell will be good…someday. Until then, I don’t mind taking a cheap catcher to attack him with. Speaking of cheap, Nick Hundley down at $2,500 wouldn’t bother me none either. But back to McCann but more importantly, his team: I like me a Tigers stack today. Feel free to pick and choose among Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, and Justin Upton today.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $3,800 – Trevor Bauer is much improved, but two things. One, he pitched five innings last night so he’s not starting today. Two, Edwin leads all of MLB in RBIs and is tied for fifth in MLB with 21 HRs. Um, you don’t price that sub-4K. Can’t, shouldn’t, won’t. I’ll hop on here at this price and hope for a parrot trot or two. In fact, all Blue Jay bats are depressed today with the expectation of Bauer taking the mound. Look to see who steals his spot, but if it’s a random call up, a Toronto stack is in full order.
Derek Dietrich, 2B: $4,000 – The pricing over at DK is telling you they expect Miami to go a bit crazy in the runs department against the Braves. I can’t say I’d argue the sentiment but I’m not gonna chase some of these prices. That said, Derek went yard yesterday while batting lead off and in the end, I’m always up for some DDs.
Sean Rodriguez, 2B/OF: $2,600 – I called for a Pirates stack on Wednesday and it did quite fine, especially Sean-Rod. If the adage is to never start a pitcher on his first start off the DL, then shouldn’t it go to pass that we stack against said arm? That was my argument against Miley Wednesday, and I’m back on that train. You can almost afford Arrieta and Jo-Fer with the price of these Pirates bats. When did Rich Hill become Clayton Kershaw? Anyhoo, I’m fine with any of David Freese, Jung-Ho Kang, Starling Marte, Jordy Mercer and Andrew McCutchen if you wanna go all in.
Nolan Arenado, 3B: $4,100 – Arenado hasn’t hit a HR since June 21st. I know these things happen, but the Torenado warnings are in full effect. Beware!
Carlos Correa, SS: $4,100 – Correa is swinging like he was earlier in the year when he was up near $5K. Don’t wait until he’s priced back up there, dive in now!
Miguel Sano, OF: $4,600 – The big boy is back and priced like he never left. Chi Chi Gonzalez is not only a guy whose name makes me feel racist for even typing it, but also a mediocre pitcher. I’m feeling a Twins stack today. If you can afford it, paying up for Eduardo Nunez and Brian Dozier while tacking on others like Max Kepler and Robbie Grossman, you could have yourself a fun, money-filled day.
Jay Bruce, OF: $4,200 – You show me Joe Ross on the mound, I’ll take a lefty power bat against him. The stats haven’t manifested Ross’ woes against LHHs, but his xFIP sitting at 4.87 tells the tale. There’s some pain to dole out here and methinks Bruce is the type who can do said things.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Where you thinking about that STLvsMIL tilt and thinking to yourself ‘man, I’m gonna roster me some Waino’? Well, you might need to rethink such thoughts. High rain chances before during and after the game currently makes such a thought for me unfathomable. Either way, keep your peepers on this one if you have it as part of your game plan for today.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The run lines today…whew. BOSvsLAA tops the o/u taco with a 10 spot while sitting right behind it is MINvsTEX at 9.5. Unfortunately, I’m writing these a little earlier than I can get my hands on some data so it’s gonna be a little deficient. I’m moving to a new home, yay! And I’m packing and moving all through this three day weekend, boo! All this to say me telling you Joe Ross is the top dog at -210 is a lie because I’m sure Jose Fernandez will be when the lines come out. It’s a beautiful slate, I hope you all enjoy it.