Truth up front: this be a punt. You want me to extol the virtues of Mike Montgomery and I just don’t have that much smoke to blow up your pretty little tush. Today there are a lot of great pitching options at the top and very few pitchers I wanna take chances on below so this call is really me going ‘hey, what does the Teamonator say about home team win percentage chances?’ and abiding by it accordingly. Basically, at this low price of $5,400 I’m hoping for 15-17 points of production as I pair him with a high end arm and some sweet power bats. All this to say, I do not expect Montgomery to be excellent but I expect his price tag to help you build a lineup that is. But enough about The Simpsons, let’s get through this. Here’s my scalding hot takes for this Thursday DK slate…
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Danny Salazar, SP: $9,400 – On the one hand, Danny is not the safest of the top options for today. On the other hand, all the other top options are pitching on the road and my little cash game rule is to try and stay with the home pitcher as often as possible. Could the Cubs go Van Halen on Salazar like they did yesterday? It’s possible but let’s all agree that Salazar is >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Marcum and realize he’s the cheapest chance of said aces to get 10 Ks. It might be tight but pairing Salazar with Greinke for cash could be the way to go.
Clay Buchholz, SP: $8,100 – But enough about cash, let’s talk about throwing money away, shall we? In what amounts to a pick’em by Vegas, Clay has the slight nod in what is expected to be one of the lower scoring affairs on the day. Want a cheap chance at 8 to 10 Ks? Go Buch yourself.
R.A. Dickey, SP: $6,700 – No, this isn’t narrative street. This is me hoping the Mets bats stay quiet after getting blanked yesterday. The dance of the knuckler hasn’t been that pretty so far this year but Dickey’s home/road splits suggest he’s not a bad option here if you’re looking to pay up for bats.
Doug Fister, SP: $5,700 – Similar idea as Montgomery but with even less K upside. I know, exciting right?!? Again, we’re looking at an expected low run total. You probably don’t get a chance for a win here but you get a chance for 10 groundball outs, 2 Ks and maybe 6 innings with no earned runs. That’s the definition of getting Fistered in the fantasy world.
Russell Martin, C: $4,500 – Remember that whole ‘paying up for bats’ thing I kept mentioning? Well, it’s Bartolo Colon Day and all he does is throw BP fastballs. Guess which pitch the Blue Jays are really, really good at hitting out of the park? Toronto’s team run total is the highest on the late slate so I’m basically telling you not to care about handedness and just attack the blob with every big Blue Jay bat you can afford.
J.T. Realmuto, C: $3,500 – But I don’t wanna pay up for bats. Fine, I say. Well, there’s another hefty on the mound today and he’s a lefty. I’m no chubby-chaser, but I’m going to like some right-handed bats against C.C. today. Consider this a tip of the cap to playing Giancarlo Stanton if you’re paying up and Jeff Baker if you’re punting 2B.
Eric Hosmer, 1B: $4,000 – Jimmy Nelson’s splits vs lefties this year are a mess and little Jimmy hasn’t learned how to clean up after himself so it’s time to punish him. I’d also consider Kendrys Morales here and I’d definitely give Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon a long look.
Pedro Alvarez, 1B/3B: $3,900 – The Shark this year has been more Jabberjaw than Jaws and his main troubles have come against lefties as he holds a 1.32 HR/9 against them on the year. Given El Toro has been resting for four straight games against lefties, methinks he comes out of the gates with a fury today. I’d also consider Gregory Polanco if I’m looking to pick on Shark’s lack of bite today.
Robinson Cano, 2B: $3,500 – Trust me, I know how wrong this feels. But you know what else is wrong? Vogelsong’s splits on the year away from home. I don’t expect a HR out of Cano today but at this price he doesn’t have to do that to cash for you. I see zero reason to pay up at 2B today so if I’m not gonna be a patty cake, patty cake, Baker man, I’m picking on Vogelsong.
Kyle Seager, 3B: $3,700 – WHAT DID I JUST SAY. Seager is probably in all of my lineups today, cash or no cash.
Brandon Crawford, SS: $3,900 – I didn’t say Montgomery was throwing a CGSO. Crawford’s reverse splits are insane and I’m not going to overlook them. Safeco is keeping the prices down on these guys, take advantage in your cash games.
Adeiny Hechavarria, 3B/SS: $3,400 – I wouldn’t waste my time typing that whole name out without a good reason. We may see him lead off with a lefty on the mound as he has done here recently. If he moves up the lineup, there’s no reason to not take advantage at the price point.
Brett Gardner, OF: $4,100 – I’m all about the lefty bats from the Yanks and the righty bats from Miami today. The Yanks are like Stella: older, wiser and they can still be hot and I’m gonna be like Taye Diggs and get all up in it. Consider this a nod to Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann.
Anthony Gose, OF: $3,700 – Mike Leake is not a quality pitcher. He gets worse against lefties. He gets even worser against lefties at home. Ok, let’s face facts: he’s just the worst. I don’t wanna pick on this game too much but I’m willing to play a little duck, duck, Gose with him leading off.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Of course there’s threats of rain and thunderstorms in Cleveland…of course…keep your eye on this game if you’re going with either pitcher. Other than that, the weather seems fine for us. Play ball!
Doing Lines In Vegas
Full disclosure, I’ve been relying heavily on the new Razzball tool – The Teamonator – for a lot of my Vegas-like thinking and it’s been kinda magicool. Yes, I portmanteau’d because it’s just that magical and cool. It called the Chen start on Monday before the Vegas line crept all day up to -260. It’s totally a hipster machine! It doesn’t have that much different from Vegas today as they both really like Greinke (-260) to be the victor. Other than that, the lines are pretty stoic today as no major moves from open to current have happened. It’s a good day to see if lines move over time, though, to gain that extra edge.
