Greetings, my fine DK’ers and so that we have it out of the way, May the 4th be with you. See that? Now it’s covered so don’t bother me about it. I’m not even a Star Wars fan. There, I said it and I can’t take it back.  I don’t care you’re still hot and bothered about Princess Leia in that bikini but I am sorry George Lucas bent over and took a steaming pile on what you divine to be a national treasure and then wiped his pimply butt with the money he made off you.  I had a similar thing happen to me with the Alien franchise so I can relate.  Alien: Resurrection?  *Man dumping trash into trash can emoji*  Nonetheless, it’s done, enjoy your new Disney money-making machine while I trudge on in the DFS world.  So Travis Wood.  He’s been pretty good.  Obviously, that’s the only reason I’m suggesting him, right?  Welllll, not exactly.  I mean, do I love his 9.89 K/9 and his 2.28 BB/9?  Of course, but there’s more to love, namely his opponent.  On the surface, you wouldn’t think that the Cardinals are a team to attack for Ks, AKA the money-making tool on DraftKings when it comes to taking a pitcher.  Their overall team K% of 18.2% puts them 25th worst (well, for them 6th best) in the league.  But then you go and look at the splits and realize a hidden gem of a secret.  Over 190 PA this year, they strike out 23.7% of the time versus southpaws.  But that’s what happens when half your lineup are left handed bats and you force Mark Reynolds into your lineup because he is one of your better hitters against LHP.  BTW, thanks STL for those two free Ks!  Anywho, let’s move on.  Here’s my scalding hot take on the May the 4th be with you DK slate.  See, I did it again just for you…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Dallas KeuchelSP: $8,000 – To be quite fleeking honest, pitching is a bother today.  Sure, there’s your big names in Kershaw and King Felix up there in the nosebleed 12K section.  I’m never gonna say no to you there but would like them both more if they weren’t on the road, especially Kershaw, whose in a band box stadium and having already given up 4 HRs on the year.  But I digress, like I said, I don’t like the pitching options today so I’m doing what I don’t normally do: suggest a non-K pitcher with limited K upside.  In fact, I call him Dallas Euchel because those Ks are silent when he’s on the mound.  With Dallas, you’re hoping he’s listening to a little Cake before the game and is going The Distance because he’s not going to go out and strike out 10.

Carlos Martinez, SP: $7,600 – Probably the smarter pick between the two duelers in STL but who has ever accused me of being smart?  Wait, that was you?  YOU TAKE THAT BACK!  Martinez will have an ERA regression eventually but it shouldn’t all come in one game.  Yes, I’m linking you back to the last time I said that.  Remember that not smart thing I mentioned?

Clay Buchholz, SP: $6,800 – Speaking of not smart, here’s a guy who has an inexplicable second ‘h’ in his last name.  I mean, just why?  Oh and here’s me staring at a pitcher’s 11.88 K/9 while completely ignoring his 5.76 ERA.  You never know from one day to the next what pitcher you’re gonna get from Buchholz.  I’m hoping for this Clay, personally, for you and me.  I’ll be waiting for that ‘ditto’ in the comments, BTW.

Jesse Hahn, SP: $6,000 – The Twins are grooving, right?  Don’t wanna go near them because they went off this weekend?  It’s true they got to Chris Sale but, um, Hector Noesi and John Danks, y’all.  They’re a boom or bust team and probably will be all year so if I’m going into the teeth of that team, give me a guy who might’ve got his K groove back after K’ing 6 Angels in 5 IP in his last outing.  Have I mentioned how much I don’t like today’s pitching slate?

Evan Gattis, OF/C: $4,800 – The big duh, Gattis is at home against a worthless LHP.  The two HRs yesterday are gonna make him a hot get so I’m not gonna tell you to force him into your lineups but I am all about an Astros stack today if I can afford it.  It’s the least I can do for them after they gave me so much money on Sunday.  Consider this a vote of confidence for the LHP mashers of Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Chris Carter.

Josh Thole, C: $2,500 – This isn’t a punt with panache play by any means but if you just can’t afford the White Bear, you can have the other white meat and still have room for something more filling in your lineup.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B: $4,200 – If I ain’t stackin’ Astros, I’m stacking Dodgers.  Gonzo gets the splits advantage and a park bump for LHHs.  I fully expect LAD to be playing lambs with Kyle: It puts the Lohse-tion on the skin or else it gets the hose again!  Cuz I won’t cover them later, this is my ringing endorsement of Jimmy Rollins, Joc Pederson, and Andre Ethier.

Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF: $3,600 – Yes, I suggested Keuchel.  Don’t mean you’re gonna roster him or I am in every lineup today.  Kyle has been a platoony toons since before that was a Razz term and gets another lefty.  Last time Kyle got a lefty on the mound – Saturday – he went 4/5 with a HR and 3 RBIs.  Much like the last time you went at it raw with a girl, saying you’re shooting Blanks out there could pay dividends.

Robinson Cano, 2B: $4,100 – I still don’t like the price and I’m suggesting him and namely because Shoemaker needs to go back to his family business.  His pitching game ain’t got no sole when it comes to facing lefties who have a .388 wOBA against him so far in a small sampling size to go with 3 HRs.  SEA might be the sneaky stack of the day if you wait for this Shoe to drop.  Gimme some Kyle Seager and perhaps Logan Morrison if this is the route you so choose to take.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B: $3,800 – In my opinion, BvP is rarely a place to spend much time on hitting analysis unless we have a decent sample size of 25+ ABs and it’s about ISO/XBHs.  That said, you give me a knuckle-baller on the mound and I’m all about dat life.  A-Rod is 8/24 against Dickey for his career with a .542 slugging.  For the price and the park bump for RHHs, I’m on board.

Marwin Gonzalez, 3B/SS: $3,000 – Yes, I suggested an Astros stack so this should already be covered but this is all about price point.  I don’t like SS today so I’m fine with finding the cheap get and moving on.  Marwin batted 2nd on Sunday with a lefty on the mound.  If he gets similar treatment today, he’s a nice punt option who could stumble into 7 points easily based on lineup situation alone.  If he scores 10+ and you don’t roster him, you might be deserving of a Marwin Award.

Carlos Gomez, OF: $4,400 – Fun fact, on days where there are big name pitchers on the mound like there is today, I take a GPP shot in the dark and stack against them.  You’re gonna hear about Kershaw all day.  People are gonna point out the Brewers’ bad team wOBA, wRC+, K% and say the stars have aligned for Clayton to have himself a day.  It’s hard to argue, really, when considering the talent that he is.  But I just look back to 2014 when the Brewers had four guys – three currently still on the roster – who had ISOs above .200 against lefties on the year.  One of said guys was CarGo Ultra.  Take this as a crazy like a fox consideration for Khris Davis and Ryan Braun while we’re at it.

Justin Upton, OF: $3,800 – Lefty on the mound, I don’t care who it is, Upton at this price is a great option.  You’ll notice I didn’t suggest Madison.  More on that later…

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

Curious why I didn’t even hint at the COLvsAZ game?  Blame it on the rain.  If the weather reports hold this way all day, there’s no way this game gets in.  Frowny face.  The only other game with weather concerns is the STLvsCHC game and it will be one to keep an eye on.  It could cut the night short of both pitchers if it gets serious.

Doing Lines In Vegas

If somehow the game in Colorado does go live, it’s the high O/U of the day at 10.  In other news, Kim K has a big booty.  In other words, ‘duh’.  Vegas is basically handing Keuchel the win in Houston with a -200 line which is the best line of the day.  Yes, better than Hernandez and Kershaw.  Speaking of Felix, he’s only at -135 which goes with the game theory I mentioned in the Carlos Gomez blurb.  Could be a night where the King becomes a Pauper.  Meanwhile, Carlos Martinez’s line has gone from a -128 open to a current -155 in a game that Vegas has shaved a half run off from 7.5 to 7.  Again, I toldja I weren’t smart!  Of similar note, Bumgarner has gone from -165 down to -140.  Keep in mind these ain’t your mom’s Padres with plenty of bats that are good against lefties.

 
  1. Allan says:
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    Hey sky can you shed some light on why all the perts are so pessimistic about c-mart? I keep hearing sell high. One guy said he’d trade him for jason werth. He pitches for one of the best teams in baseball, has a plus fastball, and I’d argue a plus change.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      an 8 K/9 and a 3+ BB/9 coupled with an ERA sitting nearly 2 runs lower than his xFIP is a part of it. Also not sure he’s figured out how to get lefties out consistently either. ‘Sell high’ has many permutations so it depends on what sell high means. He’s a good pitcher but is probably more an SP3 or 4 rather than an SP1 like he has been.

  2. Pat says:
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    What do you think of Phil Hughes tonight?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Pretty lukewarm on him. Like that he’s pitching at home but that park is hitter/pitcher neutral. Other than catching the A’s napping or tired after traveling, I can’t see a reason to get excited about him.

  3. M says:
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    Start Napoli or Ozuna this week? 6×6 roto obp league with avg as a cat too.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Ozuna

  4. Scott says:
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    Is it morning Wood?

  5. Ante GALIC says:
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    Sky!!

    Fantastic post, man! Many thanks!

    I’m starting SP Fiers (@LAD), Hahn (@Min, @Sea), Liriano (at home, Stl), McHugh (@LAA), Ross (@SF, @AZ); RP Betances and C-Mart (at home vs. CHC and @PIT).

    Bench: Cobb (DL), Odorizzi (at home vs. Tex, @BOS), Shoemaker (at home vs. Sea and Hou), Jansen (DL).

    Would you swap out any from the starters on my bench? Afraid of Odorizzi’s start @BOS, Shoe is wait-and-see in general. I like Hahn for 2 at home and believe Liriano has moved into almost must-start territory. Am afraid of Ross for two on the road, more afraid of AZ less of SF.

    Would appreciate your thoughts as always, man!

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Hey Ante, thanks in return. I’d swap Odorizzi in for McHugh since he’s not pitching at home. Rest is fine with me.

  6. bossmanjunior says:
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    Ok…I need to choose one combination here:

    1) B. Miller @ Shoemaker and Betts v Odorizzi

    or

    2) Marwin v Detwiler and Ethier @Lohse

  7. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    Good work Kemosabe, Wood’s career splits vs LHB are pretty pretty preeeetty good. We’ll see if Carpenter is in the lineup as well as Adams. Bodes well if Carpenter, Adams, and Heyward are. Only thing that gives me pause is his career #’s against St. Louis’ current roster.

    The winds blowing out to left at Fenway too, I missed badly on my Sox stack last night. Eggs has been good and keeping the ball down but with that wind it could be a good night to own Hanley, Betts, and others.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Thanks man! I’m not a BvP guy so the lineup numbers aren’t something I weigh. Also I’d consider when most of those stats accrued (i.e., years of futility which he’s pitching above this year so far).

      I could see that, RE: Sox. When Vegas gives a half run knockdown, though, I always take note even if the game is still a high O/U. Still think Clay could be a crazy good option tonight for GPPs (emphasis on crazy, of course).

  8. Chuckles Tiddlesworth says:
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    So the percentage move is to use Ethier @MIL over Dickerson @home. Whoa. Yes?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      May not understand your question…pretty sure that Colorado game gets rained out so are you asking if the move from Dickerson will be, percentage-wise across the slate, most likely Ethier?

      • Chuckles Tiddlesworth says:
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        Sorry, this was a league question, not DFS. My bad. I have Ethier on my bench and, based on what you wrote about the COL weather, I’m tempted to use him instead of C-Dick. Thanks, Sky.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Gotcha. Like in DFS, check in on the weather as the game gets closer. If the weather isn’t clear before the MIL game is set to go live, just swap Ethier in. I tend to follow twitter guys like Kevin Roth for the best info when it comes to weather issues for baseball. It always comes down to the last second on whether to stay or hold in situations like that

  9. Hy Sky,

    Who you got for a 5×5 weekly 14 team league this week?

    T.Wood (@STL, @MIL)
    Lyons(CHC) – I would have to pick him up and drop A.Sanchez or Hutch to start him. SON likes him a ton this week.

    Thanks!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Travis Wood for me, by far.

  10. J-FOH says:
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    hear ya on the Alien(s) franchise. The first two are the best and after that I feel like they should of just left it alone. Star Wars is tough for me. As a kid I saw Empire and Return in the theater multiple times but the last three re-boots were just poo poo. My daughter loves the old ones and I have never shown her the newer ones. Its my good father stance.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      That’s good father work there. Alien was the rare blend of horror, sci fi, and actual art. John Carpenter’s The Thing probably a distant second to it with regards to that but in my canon of blessed films. Aliens was pretty good but was just a major action flick; just liked the subtlety of Alien. Three was a mess for multiple reasons. The filmwork was very good but there were budget issues, a studio trying to pry in too much, way too many rewrites…it came out a fucking mess. Given David Fincher was the director, I put a lot of blame on the studio/Fox for turning it into such a bowel movement of a film. Haven’t seen Prometheus and want to on some levels but from all I’ve heard, they missed the boat for the most part there, too. Resurrection isn’t even worth talking about.

  11. Pacochu says:
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    I’ve been burned by the big starters lately, but I still am rostering Kershaw. He does eat up a good portion of salary, but I think his floor is higher than some of the cheaper guys while still having big upside.

    I think I’m trying to squeeze in mini stacks of Jays and Astros tonight. Gattis is a popular pick across the boar. I started him yesterday, but my pitching let me down.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Depends on the game you’re playing. Cash, I’m fine with Kershaw but in a tourney, all bets are off. It’s not hard to roster him, there are a lot of cheap options tonight.

      Pitching hurt a lot of people yesterday, including me. Had an Astros stack that should’ve done better but 1) the Rays suck and pulled Nathan Karns after 5 IP and only around 60 pitches and 2) James Shield K’d plenty but dropped a dud in the ER department. Still cashed but it was frustrating. Should’ve had a better day

  12. The Great Knoche says:
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    Had a couple small cashes yesterday after nit playing for a while. Riding the Astros ( the value guys) Dodgers and Jays tonight.

    Kershaw
    T wood
    Conger
    A Gon
    Devon T
    Marwin
    Donaldson
    Ether
    Joc
    Upton

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Sexy looking LU. Would probably prefer a different catcher considering price point is close to guys that are higher up in the order but the rest is hard to argue. Good luck!

  13. Mel

    littlecf24 says:
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    Hey Sky,

    Were you impressed with my big 176.95 point Razzball family plan win last night?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Sorry my man, I don’t check these things after the fact, just what my team or teams did. Looking now, it’s crazy how bad pitching was yesterday. Rare anyone makes money with two pitchers scoring than less than 26 points total. Now I’m miffed I missed 5th place by a measly 1 point.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @littlecf24: Yeah I saw that nice night. The last week has me pulling my hair out. I hope you played that lineup in some GPP’s..

  14. Shivdaddy says:
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    Cmart sucks.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Shivdaddy: apparently! I figured the LHHs would be trouble but he just didn’t seem to have anything. Chalk it up to a bad day

  15. Alex says:
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    How does everyone feel about Lester as a buy low candidate?

    I’m in need of a SP upgrade, so I offered JD Martinez for Lester, which got rejected. Then they countered with Braun for Lester. I don’t know if I’m ready to give up Braun yet…

    Thoughts on Lester for Braun?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Alex: That’s not buying low…

      • Alex says:
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        @Sky: No, why not? Because Braun just went off with some HR’s last week?

        I do appreciate more input… I’m really liking this team, and one more solid starter would have me feeling great. Like I said below, I’m also considering offering JD martinez for Smyly. Thoughts on that appreciated too!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          You drafted Braun in the first 3 rounds. Lester was going maybe in round 7 or 8? It’s still early enough to consider draft day price and projections. You’re not buying low doing that.

          Didn’t see the Smyly/JD suggestion earlier. I believe Smyly is the real deal so I would work that trade if I could.

          • Alex says:
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            @Sky: If he rejects (since JD is a bit cold and Smyly is coming off 10 ks), would you go Braun for Smyly?

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              @Alex: No

  16. Alex says:
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    I’m even thinking about offering JD for Smyly.

Comments are closed.